DraftKings – Early slate (10 games) – starts 4:05 PM EDT; Main slate (4 games) – starts 7:15 PM EDT.
FanDuel – Main slate (10 games) – starts 4:05 PM EDT; Late slate (4 games) – starts 7:15 PM EDT.
This article will focus mainly on the 4PM slate; full 7PM slate thoughts will be available in the afternoon in the PitcherList Discord channel #dfs-and-bets for those interested.
There are a lot of warm weather games with the wind blowing out today – plan for a HR-happy day! No rain is expected.
4 PM slate:
ATL@CIN: HOT, winds blowing straight out.
TEX@NYY: Warm, winds blowing out to left.
NYM@PHI: Warm, winds blowing out to right.
SEA@BAL: Warm, winds blowing out to right-center.
ARI@SF: Unseasonably cool with winds out to center; on a slate with lots of hitter friendly factors, the only game relatively pitcher friendly.
7 PM slate:
LAA@COL: Warm, swirling winds, but still HR & XBH friendly.
HOU@LAD: Winds out to center.
There are a decent number of big name arms that could come through on this slate, but they aren’t without risk.
Max Scherzer vs PHI: He had a masterful performance last start vs HOU (after two rough ones vs NYY & ATL). He also started vs PHI three weeks ago in NY with one ER & nine Ks. This is considered the third best park for HRs of the slate though, and Mad Max still gives up some barrels to Rs. That said, PHI should roll out a balanced lineup and none of the R-on-R bats seem to be threats lately, so he probably is the best bet for SP1 in cash.
José Berríos vs OAK: Hopefully they keep the roof closed at Rogers Centre. If so, Berríos should be able to handle the As at home. He had one of his bad starts last time out, so he’s due for a good bounce back game here, right?
James Paxton vs CWS: Had one costly HR vs the Twins last time out, otherwise had another solid start. The White Sox are a little dangerous vs Ls in their home park and BOS isn’t putting up a lot of runs on the road making a win a tough guarantee. Still, probably safe enough for cash (and the park conditions are safer than in PHI).
Jon Gray vs NYY: Gray came off the IL after dealing with a blister and was rocked by TOR in his last start. If his K rates bounce back to what they were pre-blister, he should be able to handle this Yanks lineup. If not, it’s a volatile park for HRs today and he could get taken deep a couple times (but TEX should be able to do the same to Luis Severino).
Merrill Kelly ended up coming through the last time he was written up in this article since he limited himself to one walk vs MIL. As noted above, SF is the least volatile environment for hitting on this slate, so Kelly’s GB dominant hit profile vs Ls should limit the majority of SF’s bats. The Giants bounced back yesterday with six ERs vs Davies so this isn’t a sure thing, but it’s a spot worth mentioning again for GPPs.
The GPP play that really seems off the radar is Bryan Hoeing vs PIT. He probably won’t go long enough to qualify for the win, but he should get a decent number of Ks and most likely won’t get blown up vs PIT. On a slate where you’ll want to fit a number of expensive bats from ATL@CIN, playing a SP2 like Hoeing frees up salary to go HR hunting.
Yesterday featured a fun slugfest between ATL & CIN, and today should do the same. The Reds are on an emotional 12-game win streak, they’re actually selling out home games, and they’ve taken over the NL Central. This game should be the center of most of your builds (unless you really want to go contrarian and go massively under the field, banking on these teams not putting up 10+ apiece again) as the park conditions are perfect for Great American popcorn.
Starting with the Red hots, Elly De La Cruz will be popular after his cycle yesterday, but he’s had some contact issues vs Ls even if Jared Shuster isn’t a great one. He could build up his floor with steals, but in tournaments, you may want to fade him entirely and go with the options around him instead. Kevin Newman isn’t a sexy play, but he’s likely to bat leadoff, and he’s one of the cheapest option on a roster that’s starting to see their prices creep up. Jonathan India often hits Ls well, and should bat second. Bats beneath Elly in the lineup worth consideration are Joey Votto, who hit a L-on-L HR in his fist start five days ago; Nick Senzel, who appears to be in a platoon role now vs Ls but hits with a lot of power; and Spencer Steer, who hits primarily LD contact vs Ls which Shuster tends to give up lately.
For the Braves, Matt Olson had two HRs yesterday vs CIN Rs, and lines up well vs Graham Ashcraft. Eddie Rosario has been one of the hottest players in the last two weeks, with an OBP of .500 and averaging more than one hit, run, & RBI per game started. Ashcraft has been on the IL for two weeks, but prior to that, he was having some issues with walks to Rs – which should lead to many on-base opportunities (and steals) for Ronald Acuña Jr. Finally, he had a bit of an off day yesterday, but Marcell Ozuna could pop here as he has had a .972 OPS rate vs Rs along with a 25% BB rate, offering a decent floor for one of the more affordable ATL bats.
If you’re fading the SS options from CIN, Corey Seager is the one you should target. Luis Severino is trending in all the wrong directions vs Ls recently, with increases in BB%, LD/FB hit rates, and solid/barrel hits. Nathaniel Lowe is a solid backup if you can’t fit Seager but want to target him in the second most favorable park for HRs on this slate. Adolis García has also been a righty masher lately with his six-game hit streak.
Even though Oriole Park isn’t thought of as a HR-friendly park, conditions are shaping up to make it one tomorrow. This is one game worth targeting on both sides for tournaments. Bryce Miller seems to have rebounded from a couple of bad outings, but his K rate is still fairly low vs Ls, and that should open up opportunities for Gunnar Henderson & Ryan O’Hearn (if you need salary relief). The Mariners got back on track in a big way yesterday, putting up 13 runs on BAL, and Dean Kremer tends to be a FB pitcher. There aren’t many Ls worth mentioning lately for SEA, but Kolten Wong & Cal Raleigh offer up decent value vs Kremer & his LD/FB contact profile.
If you’re playing Mad Max and want to pair some Mets bats up with him vs Cristopher Sánchez, Francisco Lindor, Francisco Álvarez, & Mark Canha will likely be overlooked on this slate given the other options available.
The last game with favorable hitting conditions – but two offenses that aren’t popular – is MIL@CLE. Willy Adames had two HRs yesterday and should stay hot vs Tanner Bibee. Rowdy Tellez is another cheap option. CLE has been performing well vs Rs recently, with José Ramírez & Josh Naylor leading the way, and Andrés Giménez could be worth a play too on a slate without many decent 2B options.
TB is at home vs Jordan Lyles which is worth mentioning. If Francisco Mejía is in the lineup, he’ll be a punt catcher with upside, and Luke Raley appears to be trending up lately vs Rs (assuming he’s back in the lineup). Given the other options on this slate, it’s better to stick with cheaper TB bats as fillers if you want to target Lyles, unless you’re looking to pivot from ATL@CIN for large field tournaments – then TB is a good stack to overload.