Slate Details
FanDuel/DraftKings – Main slate (11 games) – starts 7:05 PM EDT
Pitching
It has been exactly one week since Framber Valdez pitched the major’s third no-hitter of the season. His price has been adjusted accordingly across the board for his follow-up performance tonight, so if you want to keep riding that wave, you’re going to have to pay for it.
He is a good option, but not an exceptional one. Baltimore is a tough opponent and the game is on the road. I wouldn’t stop anybody from buying in, but it feels like the dollars could be better spent elsewhere.
The problem is that the pitching slate is not very exciting across the board. If you often look to zig while everyone else zags, you mind find yourself in a ditch. There are only seven pitchers with an ERA under 4.00 and even some of those are guys to avoid (I’m looking at you Touki Toussaint).
One guy who actually is not part of that group of seven is Max Scherzer, who has had a rollercoaster season that sees his ERA at 4.04. He has shown flashes of the Max we all know and love and he couldn’t ask for a better get-right game than a trip out to Oakland. He will be a popular pick and for good reason.
Tanner Bibee is about as steady as they come. He has a 3.14 ERA overall and has been even better over the past month with a 2.55 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 24 strikeouts in 24 2/3 innings. That includes strong efforts against Houston and Texas. He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs since June 13.
The other side of that matchup between Cleveland and Toronto is Yusei Kikuchi. He is on a roll lately, allowing just three earned runs combined over his last four starts. Kikuchi had nearly a 5.00 ERA at the start of June, but that number has dropped quickly.
Since the All-Star break, he is 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and a 23:7 K:BB in 22 innings. A fellow lefty, Valdez, just pitched a no-hitter against the Guardians.
If zigging is more your style, then I recommend Wade Miley. Outside of a few spots, Miley has been excellent this season. He is 6-2 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. The downside is Miley’s lack of strikeouts with just 6.4 K/9.
The matchup is excellent against the Rockies, who are a lesser team away from Coors Field. Colorado is 19-38 on the road, scoring 50 fewer runs with a team batting average 30 points lower compared to home.
There also is Kutter Crawford who is taking on Kansas City. Crawford also comes with his pros and cons. Over the last month, Crawford has a 2.18 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and over a strikeout per inning. The concern is that he rarely pitches into the sixth inning and never further. He has only completed six innings twice since late April.
Hitting
Mitch Keller has come off of the rails. He has allowed 24 earned runs in his past four starts. He has a 7.49 ERA since July 1 and now he gets Atlanta. When it rains, it pours, huh?
There are the obvious picks – Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson – assuming you have the budget for it. Additionally, Ozzie Albies is on a six-game hitting streak with homers in two of his last three, Austin Riley has a 1.250 OPS vs. Keller, and Michael Harris II has been showing signs of life.
If Keller has come off the rails, then Carlos Carrasco was never on it to start. He hasn’t done any favors for his 6.60 ERA by allowing 17 runs over his past three starts. He has logged a single quality start since the start of June.
The Cubs are playing great ball right now with six straight series wins and a generous supply of runs. Cody Bellinger and Jeimer Candelario are two to watch. Bellinger is on a nine-game hitting streak with multiple hits in the past four. Candelario is slashing .480/.552/.760 since coming over at the trade deadline and is 6-for-15 vs. Carrasco in his career.
Surprisingly, Kyle Freeland is worse on the road than he is at Coors Field. Away from home, Freeland has a 5.33 ERA, 1.48, and allows an opponent batting average of .299. Brice Turang is an excellent value option. He has a 1.060 OPS over the past two weeks. Turang is not a big home run hitter, but he has two in the past week.
William Contreras has multiple hits in seven of his last 11 games. Joey Wiemer is a left-handed specialist with a .931 OPS vs. southpaws.
Lucas Giolito has allowed 12 runs in his first two starts for the Los Angeles Angels since being picked up at the trade deadline. San Francisco isn’t quite the same threat as Atlanta, but Giolito has a long way to go before he’s in the circle of trust.
LaMonte Wade Jr. has had a great week with a 1.205 OPS and two home runs. Wilmer Flores has a slash line of .366/.409/.537 over the past two weeks.
The Giants have turned to lefty Scott Alexander to serve as an opener in the game though he’ll likely only go one inning and then Alex Wood will follow. Shohei Ohtani, Mike Moustakas, and Luis Rengifo are playing well for Los Angeles.
Brandon Pfaadt has been better since being recalled to Arizona, but that was a fairly low bar to clear considering how poor he pitched the first time around. The Dodgers will give him all he can handle and that is a stack worth investing in tonight.
Freddie Freeman is unstoppable, hitting .515 with two homers, five doubles, seven RBI, and 10 runs over his past eight games. Mookie Betts isn’t far off that pace himself with a 14-game hitting streak. Over his last eight, he has four homers, three doubles, 12 runs, and seven RBI. James Outman and David Peralta are excellent choices on a tight budget.