Entering July, we are approaching the halfway point of full-season Minor Leagues and are about 40 games into Complex Leagues. For prospects, their bodies are bigger, their sample size is growing, and their skill sets are changing. Across the Dynasty landscape, player values are adjusting, and movement through the ranks is rampant. Here is a look at the current risers and fallers in the Minor League outfield report.
Stats are entering play on 6/18/2024 and rankings are based solely on my personal prospect rankings. My views are my own
Recap of v2.0
RISERS
Cole Carrigg: Carrigg slumped a bit in May but is hot in June. Carrigg is slashing .403/.444/.537 with one homer and eight steals this month, and a move to Double-A should be on the horizon.
Justin Crawford: The 20-year-old outfielder continues to shine in High-A. On the season, Crawford is slashing .304/.353/.424 with four homers and 24 stolen bases. His strikeout rate is a manageable 22%, and he too, could be on his way to being promoted.
Robert Calaz: Calaz is one of the trendy names at the Arizona Complex League, and he’s showing why. In 27 games, Calaz is batting .356 with five homers, four steals, a .444 OBP, and a 1.117 OPS. He ranks in the Top 10 in the ACL in hits, doubles, triples, HR, RBI, batting average, SLG, and OPS.
Luis Baez: The young Astros’ outfielder continues to rake at High-A Asheville. Baez has a .291/.335/.473 slash with nine homers and 38 RBI in his first 52 games. Baez did a ton of damage in May, hitting five homers with 12 extra-base hits while batting .314.
FALLERS
Chase Davis: Davis had a brutal May, batting just .158 with no homers and 21 strikeouts in 76 at-bats. On the season, Davis has a 32% strikeout rate and 76 wRC+ playing exclusively at Low-A Palm Beach.
Elijah Green: Green continues to run wild, having posted 18 steals on the season. Unfortunately, he’s slashing .164/.261/.271 with a MiLB-worst 51.2% strikeout rate among qualified hitters.
Yanquiel Fernández: Fernandez has turned it around since May 1st, increasing his batting average by 54 points to .277 on the season. He had a good May, which saw Fernandez hit .307 with two homers, 12 runs, and 11 RBI.
RISERS
Dylan Beavers, OF, BAL
Beavers remains the most underrated prospect in a loaded Orioles’ farm system. Lost in the Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo, and Samuel Basallo shuffle is Beavers, who is quietly a consensus Top 50 prospect and ranks higher by others. Beavers was a Competitive Balance pick (33 overall) in 2022 and has excelled at every level thus far. In his first professional season in 2023, Beavers reached Double-A, slashing .288/.383/.467 with 11 homers and 27 steals. He is repeating the level in 2024 and has already produced nine homers with 12 steals this season, although his average has dipped a bit to .260.
Beavers is a high-floor asset, offering a solid combination of skills that lacks noticeable gaps. His offensive profile is hit-over-power. In two professional seasons, Beavers is making contact at a near-80% rate, although his career whiff rate hovers around 15%. Beavers’ strikeout (26%) and walk (16%) rates have been consistent, but his walk rate is exciting. The on-base rates give Beavers a higher outlook for stolen bases, especially with his plus speed. Even more impressive is that Beavers is an above-average runner with a 6’4″, 205 lb frame. As for his power, he has steadily increased his long-term power potential since his debut and projects as a consistent 20-homer threat.
There are no real concerns with Beavers’ profile, although you can nitpick his strikeouts. The blend of power and speed for Beavers is enticing. His ability to get on base and make consistent contact can only bode well for his future. As a bonus, Beavers has shown the ability to consistently hit left-handed pitching, which is different from previous Orioles’ top prospects like Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser. Beavers has jumped inside my Top 40 prospects and should be inside the Top 30 by the end of 2024.
Jaison Chourio, OF, CLE
Jaison, who turned 19 in May, has recognizable name value as the younger brother of former top prospect Jackson Chourio, now an outfielder for the Brewers. But the other Chourio is doing just fine holding his own at Class-A Lynchburg, ascending the prospect rankings, and should be a household name on his own accord. The Guardians inked Chourio to a $1.2M bonus in the 2022 class and assigned him to play in the Arizona Complex League last season.
In 48 total games (including nine at A-ball), Chourio hit .321 with one homer, 13 doubles, and 20 steals. He posted 44 walks to just 52 strikeouts, finishing with an OBP of .476, ranking third among qualified hitters. All of this came just weeks after his 18th birthday. Chourio is back in Lynchburg this season, but after a quick start, it won’t be for long. In just over 50 games, Chourio has a .271/.391/.401 slash line with three homers and 19 steals. He’s walked more than he’s striking out (39:38) and has already produced 18 extra-base hits.
Despite a drop in batting average in 2024, he’s making strides at the plate. Since last season, Chourio has increased his contact rate by 20%, jumping from 62.7% to 83%. In addition, his line drive rate has jumped to 21%, up from 9% last season. Chourio looks comfortable driving the ball to all fields from both sides of the plate. Although his home run output has been minimal, his in-game power has taken a noticeable step forward, and it’s clear that Chourio is approaching a power surge. The one question for me is how long he continues to switch-hit, as his left-handed hitting splits are decidedly better in all aspects, including power.
For a teenager, Chourio has an advanced feel for the zone, a patient, calculated approach, and provides significant upside on the base paths. Chourio has the skills to continue scaling the prospect rankings, and if his power continues to progress, he will become a must-own fantasy asset. I’ve got Chourio firmly inside my Top 100 prospects and could see a path to the Top 50 by season’s end.
Honorable Mention:
Brailer Guerrero, OF, TBR
The Rays continue to flex their muscle in the International scouting market, and their latest budding star is 17-year-old Brailer Guerrero. The 6’1″, 215 lb. outfielder will turn 18 in days but has already turned heads playing in the Florida Complex League. After a brief debut in the Dominican Summer League in 2023, a shoulder injury abruptly ended his season just seven games in. Now stateside, he has started hot in the FCL, batting .337 with eight extra-base hits and 11 steals over 25 games.
Guerrero profiles with advanced bat-to-ball skills and earned a 60-grade rating for his power. From the left side, he has displayed the ability to hit the ball to all fields, and his exit velocities have already topped 110 mph. We’ve only seen a small sample from Guerrero, but it won’t be long before he’s more than just a pop-up prospect to keep an eye on.
FALLERS
Victor Scott II, OF, STL
When we look back at the historic Victor Scott II FAAB-a-Palooza of 2024, we will share fond memories and recall the immense value we received. Well, you can’t take your FAAB with you when you go. Scott was a trendy name entering the season, largely based on his legendary 105-steal season. That performance culminated with 18 stolen bases in front of the watchful eyes of the fantasy baseball world at the Arizona Fall League and First Pitch Arizona. Scott has elite 80-grade speed and is a game-changer for fantasy purposes. But my favorite adage is “You can’t steal first base.” Unfortunately, Scott has joined the 2023 FAAB phenom Esteury Ruiz as the epitome of that expression. In his 59 major league at-bats, Scott hit just .085 with 15 strikeouts and just two steals. His first MLB stint didn’t go as anticipated, but his performance in the minors since his demotion has been lackluster, as well.
Since the Cardinals optioned Scott to Triple-A Memphis on April 20th, Scott has continued to struggle. To date, Scott has a .187/.271/.269 slash line with three homers, 17 steals, and a 49 wRC+. Scott has never been considered a high-upside offensive asset, but his 2023 season gave hope that his batting average and counting stats could provide support beyond the steals. Playing across two levels last season, Scott hit .303 with nine homers and 158 combined runs and RBI. He produced a manageable 17.7% strikeout rate and reached base at a .369 clip. Although Scott is still on a 50-steal pace this season, the underlying offensive metrics are concerning. While he’s making contact 84% of the time, his 76.6 mph average EV, 98.7 mph 90th-percentile EV, and 2% barrel rate are very poor. Until his bat gets going, Scott must rely on his speed to achieve higher-than-average BABIP rates and raise his OBP. Without a consistent batting average, Scott is a one-trick pony with limited opportunities to run.
Scott remains inside my Top 150 prospects based on speed alone, but there is little room for improvement based on current performance. The Cardinals have bypassed the opportunity to recall Scott at various points this season, and I don’t expect to see him return to the majors in 2024. For dynasty purposes, if you find someone who still values Scott as a Top 75 prospect, I’d move him for a higher-upside prospect or package him to upgrade a positional need.
Nelson Rada, OF, LAA
Nelson Rada has been a hot name in prospect circles since his debut as a 16-year-old in 2022. In 50 games, Rada hit .311 with 27 steals playing in the Dominican Summer League and followed that with a .276 batting average and 55 steals in 2023 playing at Low-A Inland Empire. Rada is known for his advanced approach, which has produced 117 walks and a career .389 on-base average. That high OBP has allowed Rada to create havoc on the bases. Rada has converted 103 of his 125 career steal attempts, including 21/26 this season. Beyond that, production has been minimal.
Things have been underwhelming for Rada in 2024. Despite an 11-game hit streak in early May, he’s still batting just .225 with five extra-base hits (one homer), a 65 wRC+, and a 27.5% strikeout rate on the year. His strikeouts have ticked up nearly 5% from 2023, and Rada’s zone contact rate has dipped to 75.6%. In addition, he has a 55% groundball rate and a .032 ISO, neither of which is inspiring. With that in mind, Rada is only 18 and is among the younger players in Double-A.
Rada has a profile similar to Scott’s. He brings limited offensive upside, with most of his value surrounding his impact on the basepaths. I’m not writing off Rada as an impact asset down the road, but I have concerns about his offensive upside. I know I’m in the minority on Rada, but I don’t see him as a Top 50 talent. Rada is outside my Top 125 prospects, but I’m not overly confident. Keep a watchful eye on Rada to see how his 2024 progresses.
Honorable Mention:
Kevin Alcántara, OF, CHC
Call it prospect fatigue or blatant disinterest, but Cubs’ prospect Kevin Alcántara doesn’t do it for me. Alcántara has the physical tools and size (6’6″, 190 lbs) to be a star, but I have doubts. His profile centers around power and athleticism. Since leaving the Complex level, Alcantara has a 39.4% strikeout rate and only 33 home runs in 262 games. His contact rates are sub-70%, and without a significant improvement in his skill set, I don’t see the 30-homer upside. I’m out on Alcantara as a game-changing prospect.
Chase DeLauter, OF, CLE
My heart hurts for DeLauter, but he’s trending in the wrong direction. His talent is incredible, and his upside is enticing. DeLauter remains a Top 15 prospect for me, but his injury concerns are becoming worrisome. Since his selection in the 1st round of the 2022 Draft, DeLauter has missed significant time with multiple foot-related injuries, which began in his collegiate days at James Madison.
Feature image by Michael Packard (@CollectingPack on Twitter) / Photo by Rick Ulreich / Icon Sportswire