Avoiding players who end up being busts in the draft can be key for fantasy managers each year in drafts. However, in addition to avoiding players who might struggle, there’s also avoiding reaching for players who struggle to produce relative to their respective average draft positions.
Of course, there’s more to the draft than that. Finding sleepers is of similar importance, as is making the right picks at the right times, particularly in the draft’s early rounds. But if you leave drafts with few, if any, players who could be busts, it’ll set up for plenty of fantasy success this season.
With that in mind, here are a few players to avoid at their respective ADPs at the third base position.
*All ADP data via NFBC.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. – 24.46 ADP*
Chisholm enjoyed a quality season last year, hitting .256 with a .324 on-base percentage, 24 home runs and 40 stolen bases.
After starting the year with the Miami Marlins, Chisholm was traded to the New York Yankees mid-season. Seeing significant time in the outfield and at third base, the 27-year-old will enter 2025 with fantasy eligibility at both positions, with second-base eligibility potentially in the cards as well, depending on how exactly New York decides to set up the team’s infield.
And while the now former Marlin’s ability to help your fantasy team at multiple spots while adding elite stolen base production and some power production as well gives him impact fantasy potential, his quality of contact metrics from 2024 (should they repeat themselves in a similar fashion) certainly don’t help from a fantasy standpoint.
The infielder and outfielder logged a .316 xwOBA, a .386 xwOBAcon, and a 9.7% barrel rate in 621 plate appearances last season. Elsewhere, Chisholm ranked in the 33rd percentile or lower in both strikeout rate (24.5%, 33rd percentile) and whiff rate (29.3%, 22nd percentile).
He was largely able to outperform those underlying metrics, where his counting stats were concerned by virtue of logging so many plate appearances. Only 60 batters logged more plate appearances than the 27-year-old in 2024, with much of that due to him routinely hitting leadoff for the Marlins.
Once he was traded to New York, Chisholm hit in the top four of the Yankees lineup just six times in 46 games for the American League East club.
In other words, the plate appearances might not be as plentiful, at least comparatively speaking, in 2025.
Elsewhere, the Yankees lost Juan Soto but (in part) replaced him with two hitters in Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt.
If both are hitting ahead of Chisholm and if the 27-year-old’s quality of contact metrics repeat themselves (something that isn’t out of the question given that the veteran has logged an xwOBA below .320 in three of the last four seasons), he could have a hard time replicating his 2024 counting stats.
All told, with an ADP so high up draft boards, fantasy managers might be better off looking elsewhere with their second or third-round pick. Jackson Merrill, Ketel Marte, Austin Riley, and Rafael Devers all have lower ADPs with much more promising lineup situations around them and better respective quality of contact numbers.
Luis Rengifo – 153.55 ADP*
Somewhat similar to Chisholm Jr., you’re probably better off looking elsewhere if you have a pick in and around Rengifo’s current ADP.
The Angels infielder isn’t without fantasy upside. Due in part to low strikeout rates, he’s hit .264, .264, and .300 in each of the last three seasons, with respective plate appearances totals of 511, 445, and 304 during that span.
Most recently, the 27-year-old hit .300 with a .347 OBP, six home runs, and 24 stolen bases in 304 plate appearances in 2024.
The recent success with batting average, lack of long-term solutions currently in Los Angeles’ infield outside of Zach Neto and Nolan Schanuel, and multi-position fantasy eligibility (third base and second base) are probably fueling Rengifo’s reasonably high ADP.
Furthermore, the Halos improved their lineup depth over the winter, adding Jorge Soler, Travis d’Arnaud, Yoán Moncada, and Tim Anderson, theoretically raising the floor where Rengifo’s counting stat potential is concerned in the process.
There are a plethora of fantasy third basemen with significantly lower ADPs who could potentially provide better fantasy production across the board in the likes of Eugenio Suárez, Max Muncy, Alec Bohm, and Isaac Paredes.
What’s more, waiting on one of those hitters would allow you to select a player at another position around Rengifo’s ADP, a player with both a potentially higher fantasy floor and ceiling.
Because for as much as Rengifo’s recent batting average production has been encouraging, he doesn’t offer as much in the way of power potential. Furthermore, if his recent splits are anything to go by, his .300 average in 2024 might have been a bit of a statistical outlier of a season based on his batted ball data.
That Rengifo potentially brings a solid batting average, quality stolen base production and multi-position eligibility are all good things. However, his ADP just might be a bit on the higher side of things.
Maikel Garcia – 209.52 ADP*
It was somewhat of a tale of two seasons for Maikel Garcia in 2024.
In the first half, the 24-year-old hit .230 with six home runs and 21 stolen bases in 412 plate appearances and a .626 OPS, providing fantasy managers with plenty of stolen base production and some quality early-season numbers at times (his OPS in May was .773).
However, Garcia’s OPS dropped to .590 in 214 second-half plate appearances. And while he stole 16 bases during that stretch, he homered just once. Outside of just home runs, the infielder’s extra-base tally fell from 26 in the first half to just 13 in the second half.
The decrease in plate appearances surely had something to do with that due to there being literally fewer opportunities, but Garcia partly saw fewer plate appearances down the stretch because the contending Royals went out and traded for Paul DeJong to provide infield reinforcements.
DeJong departed in free agency, once again leaving Garcia as the starter at third base. And while the 24-year-old showed strong plate discipline skills last season, finishing in the 81st percentile or better in strikeout rate (16.5%, 81st), whiff rate (15.7%, 92nd) and chase rate (21.2%, 92nd), if he struggles again, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Kansas City acquire another third baseman at some point.
Of course, that’s all entirely speculative on my part, but the Royals finished with the eighth-lowest wRC+ in the sport last season and made just one major lineup addition in Jonathan India in the offseason. They might upgrade their lineup at some point (if it struggles) regardless of how Garcia does. Though, that’s all speculative on my part.
Either way and with Garcia posting just a 3.7% barrel rate last year, you might be better off looking elsewhere for a third base option later in drafts.
Willi Castro – 229.32 ADP*
Willi Castro set plenty of career highs last season, including in plate appearances (635), home runs (12), runs scored (89), RBI (60), barrel rate (7.0%), xwOBA (.320) and xwOBAcon (.371) in a full season.
Overall, the 27-year-old hit .247 with a .331 OBP, 12 home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 108 wRC+ in those aforementioned 635 plate appearances. As per usual, Castro saw playing time all across the diamond, with at least 27 appearances at all of the following positions: shortstop, second base, left field, center field, and third base.
That versatility gives Castro a fairly decent fantasy floor with the potential plate appearance opportunities that come with it, but the fantasy ceiling just might not be that high even with all those plate appearances.
Castro only logged 12 homers despite having more plate appearances than all but 50 other batters last season. And while he set new career highs in xwOBA and barrel rate, when viewed in the context of the rest of the league, both metrics ranged from slightly above average (the xwOBA ranked in the 55th percentile) to slightly below average (the barrel rate ranked in the 41st percentile). Furthermore, after stealing 33 bases in 2023, that number dropped to 14 last season.
All told, Castro might be a useful streaming option at times or someone to draft in leagues with 14 or more teams, but counting on him as a starter in more standard-sized leagues probably isn’t the highest-ceiling route from a fantasy perspective.
Connor Norby – 270.09 ADP*
Switching to Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s former team in Miami, Connor Norby stepped into a significant role for the Marlins down the stretch.
In 162 plate appearances in 36 games, the infielder hit .247 with a .315 OBP, seven home runs, and three stolen bases for the National League East club, logging a 108 wRC+ in the process.
For the season, the 25-year-old hit .236 with a .294 on-base percentage, nine home runs, and three stolen bases in 194 plate appearances split between Miami and Baltimore, the franchise Norby started the season with.
Buried on the organizational depth chart in Baltimore, Norby showed plenty of power potential in Miami when given consistent playing time. He logged a .202 ISO on the season and a .199 ISO with Miami. His barrel rate for the season was a promising 14.8%.
If Norby can replicate that barrel rate over a full season, it could lead to significant power numbers. Here are the qualified batters who logged a barrel rate above 14% in 2024.
Though the power potential is intriguing, Norby’s strikeouts could significantly hamper his overall production, something a high strikeout rate can often do, even in tandem with an elite barrel rate. Just look at Cruz, Raleigh, and Ramos’ respective OPS numbers last season.
Norby struck out 33% of the time last season with a nearly identical 33.2% whiff rate. His chase rate finished at 34.8%.
Only one qualified batter logged strikeout rate, whiff rate, and chase rate numbers each above 30% — Pirates shortstop and outfielder Oneil Cruz. In general, only four players among qualified batters (Cruz, Zack Gelof, Elly De La Cruz, and Colton Cowser) had strikeout rates north of 30%.
Relax the plate appearance restrictions to 300 and 24 batters struck out 30% of the time or more last season. Only nine of those players had an OPS above the league average (which was .711 in 2024). Only three of those 24 batters—De La Cruz, Tyler O’Neill, and Tyler Fitzgerald—had an OPS north of .800.
In short, the strikeout rate just isn’t sustainable, and considering Norby logged a 28% strikeout rate in 440 Triple-A plate appearances in 2024, it doesn’t look too much like a statistical outlier.
Given where Miami is at in the team’s rebuild, there could be plenty of plate appearances to go around for Norby. However, if he continues striking out at this type of rate, he’s going to be more of a fantasy bench option or deeper league starter than someone to start in more standard-sized leagues given the potential for a low batting average and on-base percentage.
I find it entertaining that Norby made both PL’s Sleepers and Bust lists. High ceiling, low floor?