The Hundred Raker Wood
James Wood (WSN): 3-3, 2B, BB.
James Wood has been something else. He struggled a bit on Thursday night and got bullied by Zack Wheeler for a couple of strikeouts. However, he bounced back last night with a strong game against Aaron Nola, getting two singles and a walk. And then in the eighth, bullpen ace Matt Strahm tried to tie him up inside but he laced a liner the other way for a double. Impressive hitting.
Wood has received plenty of buzz lately, and rightfully so; simply put, he is just exceptionally unique. We’ll start with a glaring weakness right now: his contact ability. He’s striking out at a 30.8% clip and his PLV profile shows red, grading his contact ability at 80 (100 is average). I mentioned it in this week’s PLV report, but part of the problem might be because he’s a little too passive (-9.6% swing aggression). Either way, he’s also shown a strong chase rate (87th percentile). The key will be finding some sort of happy medium, i.e. not chasing too often while not being overly passive at the expense of taking hittable pitches in the zone.
Let’s get down to the fun part: hard contact and lots of it (57.7%)! In today’s game, his batted ball profile makes him a unicorn. How so? His 64.9% groundball rate puts him in the 100th percentile. And he’s going up the middle as well as using the other field a ton with his pull rate in the bottom four percentile. When he hits fly balls, they go a long way (97.5 FB EV; 99th percentile). All this is to say, that Wood should maintain a really high HR/FB and BABIP. Sure enough, his .369 xBABIP is in the 100th percentile. Last night’s double against Strahm was a great example: He has a really unique ability to hit inside-out pitches the other way. His current batted ball profile isn’t ideal for home runs, but his average should stay pretty decent. And if he does start pulling the ball more often. Well, he might break things.
Wood has just 76 BBE, so the sample size is still quite small. But right now, he’s basically bizarro-world Isaac Paredes. Again, I don’t want to completely brush aside his strikeouts. That’s something we’ll have to monitor. But he’s right there with Oneil Cruz and Elly De La Cruz as one of the game’s unique, young talents.
Let’s see how the other hitters did Friday:
Brandon Nimmo (NYM): 2-5, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI.
Nimmo iced the win for the Mets, teeing off on a first-pitch heater from George Soriano in the fourth for a three-run tater to right (390 feet, 107.7 EV). The Wyoming native has hit the skids lately and entered the night hitting just .226. This was also his first dinger since July 10th against the Nats. So, yeah, it’s been a long time coming. Still, I believe in Nimmo righting the ship as a proven hitter with a career .357 wOBA and 130 wRC+. However, his 25.2% K rate is the highest we’ve seen from him since 2019, so there’s that.
Jackson Holliday (BAL): 4-5, 3B, 3 R, RBI.
This was the game of the night if you enjoy seeing “In play, (Runs)”. Matt’s boy notched his first four-hit game, including a high flyball that clanged high off the scoreboard in right-center (362 feet, 94.5 EV) for his first triple on a cutter from Cooper Criswell. If he keeps it up, you’d figure he’d get a chance to work his way up the lineup. Still, this is a loaded lineup, so that’s far from a certainty.
Ramón Urías had the other big night for the O’s, blasting a big home run to center in the seventh, and ended the night with five RBIs. Yep, the 30-year-old utility infielder with a career .726 OPS. That’s how these wild games always work out, right?
Luis Robert Jr. (CHW): 3-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI.
La Pantera poured cold water on the Pasta Pirate, sending his 94 mph heater onto the train tracks above the Crawford Boxes for a two-run jack in the third (414 feet, 106.1 EV). He tagged Arrighetti again in the fifth, hooking a sweeper inside the left-field foul pole for his 14th (329 feet, 94.6 EV). It’s been a year to forget for the Cuban star with a career-low .690 OPS and a career-high 36.9% K rate. However, his power and speed can still be a difference-maker down the stretch run.
Oswald Peraza (NYY): 1-3, HR, R, RBI.
The Yankees called Peraza up Wednesday and he debuted by taking lefty Brant Hurter for a ride to left (398 feet, 105.1 EV). The Yankees have been a two-man band with Judge and Soto and haven’t gotten much else from their lineup save for occasional good showings from Austin Wells. Peraza hit .244 with a .336 wOBA across 65 games with Triple-A Scranton before the promotion. He’s a defensive wiz who can play 2B, 3B, and SS, which should help him earn playing time. However, his teammate Oswaldo Cabrera, who didn’t play last night, is a solid batter against righties, which could complicate things. As an aside, and perhaps this is dumb (it’s only one at-bat) but part of me wonders whether Peraza is better than Anthony Volpe. Sure, Volpe had a long hit streak in May, but here we are 121 games into year two and all I see is a .300 wOBA. Not great. Consider Peraza if you’re searching for someone to watchlist in a deep league.
Ian Happ (CHC): 2-4, 2B, HR, 3 R, RBI, BB, SB.
Happ’s dinger came as a righty against reliever Brendon Little, and it wasn’t a cheapy, coming in at 432 feet (106 EV). Happ is striking out more than we’ve seen from him (27.2 K% vs. 22.2% for his career). However, he’s only four home runs away from matching his career-high of 26. He’s also performed well as a right-handed hitter, posting a .353 wOBA and 129 wRC+ across 105 PA compared to career marks of .315 and 98 in 880 PA.
Cody Bellinger (13), Miguel Amaya (5), and Pete Crow-Armstrong (5) also went yard for the Cubs in their 6-5 win over the Jays.
Dylan Carlson (TBR): 2-4, HR, R, 2 RBI, SB.
Go figure, he’s got three home runs since being traded to the Rays. Last night’s shot came batting left-handed on a 3-2 fastball from Ryne Nelson (379 feet, 100.8 EV). As a career .239 hitter with a .309 wOBA, there’s probably nothing to see here. But he’s getting some playing time if you’re stuck in a deep league. The Rays go to Oakland next week, which might make him a decent streamer.
Corbin Carroll (ARI): 1-5, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI.
The D-backs almost pulled it off thanks to Carroll’s lone hit. Trailing 4-2 in the ninth and down to their final strike, he blasted a 94 mph changeup from Pete Fairbanks to tie the game. Carroll is riding a modest seven-game hitting streak but hasn’t torn the cover off the ball at any point, hitting .219 with a .696 OPS. His PLV metrics don’t move the needle either, other than good contact ability (112). Last year’s NL RoY has been one of the biggest disappointments of the year and I’ll be fascinated to see where he ends up next draft season.
Gavin Lux (LAD): 2-4, HR, 2 R, RBI.
Lux kicked off the scoring by sending the first pitch he saw from Miles Mikolas 406 feet to straightaway center for his eighth of the year. Although, Cards center fielder Victor Scott II nearly had it at the top of the wall. Anyway, over his last 14 games, Lux is hitting .326 with a .914 OPS. Sure enough, if you peek at his PLV rolling charts you’ll notice a big spike in power. Perhaps this is the post-hype breakout the Dodgers were hoping for.
Brendan Rodgers (COL): 1-4, HR, R, 3 RBI.
Mr. Rodgers did all of his damage in his first at-bat, blasting a floating knuckler from Matt Waldron to left (438 feet, 108.8 EV) for his tenth of the year. The Rockies second baseman has been terrific in August, hitting .392 with a 1.115 OPS. Still, I’m not sure Rodgers is doing anything all that exciting, at least for standard/shallow leagues. He’s probably still best suited as a streamer at Coors Field. In which case, note that the Rockies go on the road next week, with three-game sets at Washington and Yankee Stadium.
Jorge Polanco (SEA): 1-3, HR, 2 R, RBI, BB.
The veteran switch-hitter’s lone hit came in the ninth when he lifted a 96 mph fastball from David Bednar 399 feet to right-center (103.2 EV) for his 12th round-tripper of the year. Polanco has had a rotten year, so I don’t blame you if you want to ignore him. But he’s flashed some power recently albeit at the cost of striking out more often (30.5% K rate; 80 contact ability).
Masataka Yoshida (BOS): 3-4, HR, R, 4 RBI, BB.
The Red Sox drummed Corbin Burnes soundly last night, and Yoshida played a part by blasting a three-run dinger in the fourth. He drove in another run in the eighth which proved pivotal in the 12-10 slugfest at Camden Yards. Yoshida has shown good contact ability (116) but hasn’t done much otherwise. His lack of power (93) puts him as borderline rosterable in standard leagues where he’s added and dropped at a whim.
Jarren Duran also had a big night for the Sox with his 15th homer of the year.
Jake Burger (MIA): 1-4, HR, R, RBI.
This guy. Again!? Look, Sean Manaea, I know you guys were up five runs but, you know, how about not chucking a 92 mph meatball to the hottest hitter in baseball? You’re allowed to waste a 2-2 pitch and see if he’ll chase. There were two outs and no one on base. News flash: There’s no one else in this lineup!! Sorry, it just drives me up a wall. Burger is hitting .333 with a 1.205 OPS over the last 30 days (26 games) while leading baseball with 14 dingers.
Photo by Kevin Abele/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)