Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Dean Kremer (BAL) @ MIN (ND) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 86 pitches.
Is there more of a Werewolf than Dean Kremer? Today’s brilliance against the Twins – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 86 pitches (ND) with a co-share of the King Cole – marks the first start since opening weekend with more than four strikeouts and just the fourth of eight starts under 5 ER. That may be enough to deter you from the onset, but what if there’s something under the hood to suggest Kremer could repeat this success?
There isn’t. This was a clear product of pumping 13/22 called strikes with his sinker (68% CSW!), with the cutter climbing aboard underneath after the heater cleared the way. The curve was also an effective tool against LHB, but this was clearly the sinker/cutter show with the Twins playing the orchestra, constantly in the hole. Let’s enliven this outing without doing anything visual.
Kremer will get the Twins a second time and you can bet they’ll be far more aggressive on that sinker the next time around. I wouldn’t risk this one.
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Kris Bubic (KCR) vs CHW (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 93 pitches.
Sure, the White Sox are a phenomenal gift, but Bubic executed consistently. The heater was up, the changeup was down, and the sweeper was around…? We even saw the gyro slider get in the action for 7/10 strikes. It’ll be hard to say no against the Astros up next.
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) vs LAD (W) – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 99 pitches.
Against the Dodgers?! Atta boy Pfaadt! Huge props to the sweeper working against both LHB and RHB while the changeup is still doing work against LHB. He’s a new man in 2025 and I want to raise him up on The List each week, likely capping around #40 or so. He’s a solid Holly now.
Brayan Bello (BOS) vs TEX (ND) – 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 5 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 83 pitches.
Five walks with just one strikeout?! HAISTBMBWT?! The changeup was all over the place for 1/14 CSW (not a typo), while the sinker had a 52% strike rate. It was tough to watch Bello try to figure out each at-bat, but at least the slider was decent, right? It’s hard to feel good about Bello right now. There’s always something messing him up each day.
Keider Montero (DET) @ COL (W) – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 92 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! That’s a Gold Star for Montero as he went eight frames, allowing one run in Coors. He’s been the Tigers’ go-to arm for spot starts and this shouldn’t be the start to shift your perception of Montero. He’s still down over two ticks from last season and failing to display upside inside the arsenal. I’m happy you were able to celebrate a lovely Birthday Party.
Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) vs CIN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 93 pitches.
It’s a good line, but we’re not out of the woods. The four-seamer was located right down the pipe and he got away with it (11/27 called strikes is kinda hilarious given their location), while the splitter, sinker, and slider each returned 50% strikes or fewer. Let’s all thank the curve for carrying this one. Nah, that was the Reds lineup carrying Spencer by not swinging at those heaters. Okay, fair. I guess the Reds don’t see the Green light much? That’s a stretch. I JUST WANT TO SLEEP.
Casey Mize (DET) @ COL (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 86 pitches.
That’s a Golden Goal for Mize, sharing both the Gallows Pole and King Cole. I don’t think we’ve seen that one before. Coors isn’t as deadly as it used to be, but Mize was fantastic executing the BSB to LHB with his four-seamer and splitter. His approach against RHB was a bit more chaotic with loose sinkers and four-seamers, while slurves and sliders weren’t the prettiest we’ve seen, even if they landed for a fair number of called strikes and a sprinkle of whiffs. I didn’t hate this matchup with the Red Sox up next away from Fenway, so I’m fine starting him there. I still question the overall package, but this does mark his fifth start of one or zero runs across seven starts. But yes, I’m still cautious for the full season outlook.
Ryan Pepiot (TBR) vs PHI (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 95 pitches.
Wow. Fantasy managers will take this start and book it as Pepiot did not look good. None of his pitches returned a 60% strike rate (yikes!). The changeup and slider combined for 3/40 whiffs. This was not a pretty game and we can thank his four-seamer for being effectively wild here. I’ve been lowering Pepiot each week on The List and this start does little to reverse that trend, sadly. But fine, start him against the Jays. They aren’t an intimidating squad and Pepiot could still dominate on a given night despite the oddities of late.
Bailey Ober (MIN) vs BAL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 91 pitches.
Ober was Singled Out, though that would suggest Bailey was dealt a poor hand from Koufax. Nooope. Bailey tossed so many heaters down the pipe, either floated the changeup or missed too far out of the zone, and continues to allow hard contact on his slider(s) to RHB. Be happy the ERA and strikeouts are on your side here.
Nick Lodolo (CIN) @ ATL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 93 pitches.
Pretty wild to see Lodolo steer away from curveballs to LHB and go 68% sinkers well over the plate. The curve and four-seamer did their job to RHB (the changeup wasn’t there a whole lot, but there were a few effective ones) and I guess we’re cool with Lodolo again. Nice to see the heaters + curve miss bats again.
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) @ TBR (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 105 pitches.
This is the second pedestrian outing from Luzardo and I dig it. But it wasn’t great! Right, but I’m used to Luzardo’s “off” nights coming with 5+ ER. Thank you for not allowing longballs from mistakes over the plate. So no more mistakes? Oh, he’s still featuring those alright, both on and off the plate. 50% strike rates on changeups and sweepers were not a fun time, while he got away with many over the heart of the plate throughout the night. He had a weird game like this against the Giants and bounced back right after. I’m expecting better against the Cardinals next.
José Soriano (LAA) vs TOR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 90 pitches.
Bleeeegh. I’m happy the slider returned to RHB and look at that, 4/14 whiffs! But he needs a strike pitch and 43% strikes ain’t it. Fair. But we did get inside sinkers, too, and I think he pitched better than the line suggests, save for some terrible pitches to LHB. He’s gotta work on that a bit.
Tanner Gordon (COL) vs DET (L) – 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 89 pitches.
His changeup can work (6/28 whiffs!) but the slider is meh and the 92 mph four-seamer is terrifying to watch. Welcome to Colorado.
Chris Bassitt (TOR) @ LAA (W) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 101 pitches.
It really has been downhill since that start against Atlanta, eh? Bassitt went berserk with his sinker at a whopping 73% usage to RHB and I don’t blame him for it. That pitch works and if it weren’t for a pair of HRs, y’all would have loved this one. It could be a solid one against the Rays, though I’m not sold that featuring 61% sinkers overall creates the best outlook for Bassitt.
Jack Leiter (TEX) @ BOS (L) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 90 pitches.
We didn’t have high expectations for Leiter to turn it on in Fenway, but this was a weird one. The story has been “Just throw strikes and you’ll be fine!” and yet here’s Leiter with an overall 63% strike rate and all five pitches sitting above the 60% strike threshold, but carrying four walks. The culprit? A four-seamer that missed the top of the zone a bit too often. It would have helped if something inside the arsenal could help out the elite heater, but the slider went just 1/19 whiffs while the curve and change returned 1/12 whiffs on their own. He’s still working this out and I’m okay with chasing something else.
Davis Martin (CHW) @ KCR (L) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 86 pitches.
He couldn’t find the zone and set up poor counts where batters bashed hung changeups and his poor four-seamer. We should have known. Two first names, you’re right.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) @ ARI (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 88 pitches.
Aces gonna allow a grand slam in the second frame and dominate across the other four frames. That’s baseball, Suzyn. Nothing to get worried about, just an off night.
Kyle Freeland (COL) vs DET (L) – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 11 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 65 pitches.
We’ve tried nothing and we’re all out of ideas!
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