The late rounds of a draft generally serve two purposes: filling any empty spaces on your roster and taking a flyer on a few players who have significant upside but who also may have significant risks in their profile or situation that have pushed them down draft boards.
This article will identify players who will likely still be available in the final rounds of your draft and who are just an opportunity, a clean bill of health, or a tweak away from being a potential impact player. Of course, this list is far from exhaustive—at this point in a draft the only “bad” picks are players who won’t play because they’re retired, injured for the season, or otherwise ineligible.
As a final note, these players are being listed in order of ADP (based on NFBC ADP from drafts completed after February 1). This group of players is distinguished from sleepers because it specifically focuses on those who should be available near or after pick 300 (which represents the 25th round of a 12-team draft and the 20th round of a 15-team draft) with one exception at the top for someone who would be a later-round flyer in shallower formats, as the rest can mostly go undrafted in 10-team drafts. To see how I rank these hitters in a more robust context, check out my Top 300 Hitters For Fantasy Baseball 2024.
Zack Gelof (2B, OAK), ADP 132 – I was quite harsh on Gelof during the regular season due to his weird swing, his poor zone contact numbers, and his inflated line drive rates. While Gelof did improve his zone contact to an extent as the season went on, my lack of faith in players who miss more than 20% of the pitches they swing at in the zone remains as steadfast as ever.
Gelof’s mechanics aren’t enough to prove to me that he can sustain a line drive rate close to 30% as he had for most of the season in 2023, but I do admit the power is legitimate and the A’s will play him near the top of the order every single day. 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases are very much in play for Gelof (and 25 home runs wouldn’t shock me either), but the strikeout rate and luck regression will likely bring that batting average closer to .230. If that swing of his DOES help him sustain an elevated line drive rate, though, the ceiling becomes much higher.
Anthony Rizzo (1B, NYY), ADP 295 – Rizzo folded after a hot start, slashing just .172/.271/.225 over the last 46 games he played before hitting the IL with a concussion. He was so bad that it was easy to forget that Rizzo had 11 home runs and a .305 batting average at the end of May, and there’s still a distinct likelihood that Rizzo starts the season as the number four hitter behind Judge and Soto. A return to the 30 home runs he hit in 2022 as a Yankee would easily get Rizzo to 100 RBI, but he’ll need to find health and consistency that just wasn’t there last season.
Colt Keith (3B, DET), ADP 297 – Keith became the second prospect this off-season to receive a multi-year contract prior to making his major league debut. The contract all but assures us that Keith will open as the Tigers’ everyday second baseman. Keith’s profile should translate well to the major leagues as he combines plus power with strong plate discipline to form a solid all-around approach. He is not going to be very useful in the stolen base category, but he figures to be a reliable four-category contributor batting in the middle of Detroit’s lineup.
Here is what Steve concluded from our composite article:
“Keith has risen to a top prospect in baseball since being drafted and has done it with his ability to hit the baseball. Keith should get a chance to play every day at the hot corner in Detroit starting on opening day in 2024.”
Matt Wallner (OF, MIN), ADP 344 – Wallner has a difficult path to a full-time role due to the nature of the Twins roster and his weakness to left-handed pitching, but there’s no doubting his raw power after he hit 14 home runs in 76 games. Keep Wallner in the back of your mind, especially in OBP formats, when you need power at the end of a deep draft or during the season when perusing the wire, but even if Wallner is healthy for all of 2024, it’s unlikely he gets to 120 games played while in a strict platoon.
Jordan Lawlar (SS, ARI), ADP 376 – Lawlar third among prospects in the Top 300 list over Holliday? Matt Heckman has been one of the biggest advocates for Lawlar and 14 major league games will not change his mind. Lawlar’s home run per fly ball numbers have been impressive throughout his professional career and there is 40+ stolen base potential here. He should usurp Geraldo Perdomo as the everyday shortstop early on in 2024 (possibly as early as Opening Day) and be a reliable fantasy asset for managers this season.
Here is what Matt concluded about Lawlar in the composite article:
“The speed and power combination possessed by Lawlar is exciting. The upside in his profile is huge and there is no reason to overreact to a small major league sample size. He will have a fantasy impact in 2024 and should be on your radars during draft season.”
Alex Kirilloff (1B/OF, MIN), ADP 424 – Kirilloff’s hit tool and power could make him a valuable first baseman or outfielder in fantasy, but the injuries have never stopped piling up, allowing other players to get a chance to steal his spot in the lineup. If given the chance to play 120-140 games, Kirilloff could provide a .270 batting average with 17-19 home runs and decent RBI totals, but between a roster logjam and ever-present injury concerns, it’s hard to imagine Kirilloff getting that chance.
Kyle Manzardo (1B, CLE), ADP 457– Manzardo appeared to be one of the more polished minor league batters heading into the 2023 season. Injuries, personal issues, and bad luck led to some struggles and ultimately resulted in him being traded to Cleveland. Manzardo still utilizes a mature approach at the plate with a plus-hit tool and plus-power. Landing in Cleveland provides Manzardo with a much clearer path to playing time which should come as early as Opening Day. Manzardo has quickly turned into an underrated dynasty asset and is being overlooked for redraft leagues as well.
Here is what Steve wrote about Manzardo back in November:
“Manzardo looked to turn things around when he was traded to the Guardians and continued to get reps in the Arizona Fall League. Mazardo has looked closer to his old form, hitting five home runs in the AFL but still has yet to see his average creep back up to his 2022 season. A .269 BABIP for Tampa and .233 for Cleveland in 2023 may be the reason for this and Manzardo is still a top first base prospect.”
Harrison Bader (OF, NYM), ADP 549 – You can’t project Bader for more than 110 games, but even in that short amount of time he should hit a couple of home runs (up to 10, I’d guess) and steal 20 bases with bad ratios. That has a certain utility in some formats, and his hot streaks will land him on even some 12-team rosters for a few weeks. He’d be a 15 home run plus 30 stolen base threat if he played anything close to a full season, but he hasn’t done that since 2019.
Rowdy Tellez (1B, PIT), ADP 614 – In the single season where Rowdy played a full season, he hit 35 home runs. Now there’s a reason Toronto and Milwaukee didn’t want to play him every day (he’s awful against lefties), but the Pirates don’t have a lot of other options (Connor Joe is not what I generally consider an option), so if you want to roll the dice on a 25 home run season with bad ratios, I won’t stop you. Heck, if he starts pulling his fly balls a bit more, he could even hit more than that.
Jake McCarthy (OF, ARI), ADP 622 – Speed upside is the name of the game, and McCarthy is a near lock for 40 steals if he plays a full season. It’s not at all likely he’ll get that kind of opportunity in 2024, but even 100 games should be enough to hit a few home runs while swiping 25 bags.
Brenton Doyle (OF, COL), ADP 646 – 10 home runs and 22 steals in 126 games ain’t too bad, and the Rockies are likely to give Doyle a full season as their center fielder in 2024. He achieved these numbers despite posting a mind-blowing 19 wRC+ in Coors Field last season, which I have to think is some kind of fluke. If Doyle is even close to average at home in 2024, he’ll be a popular streamer in those games.
Jakob Marsee (OF, SDP), ADP 705 – Marsee has the opportunity to earn the starting center field job in Spring Training this year. He put together an impressive first full season of professional baseball hitting 16 home runs with 46 stolen bases. There are questions over how well his power will translate to the major league level, but there is OBP and stolen base upside apparent. He should find himself in San Diego at some point during the first half and be a valuable fantasy asset once he arrives.
Here is what Matt wrote about Marsee back in November:
“Marsee is still incredibly underrated. The biggest question mark is his power, but a .280 hitter, who walks 12% of the time and can steal 35 bases only needs to hit about 15 home runs to be fantasy-relevant. His advanced approach makes him one of the safer prospects to target and there is a strong chance we see him debut in 2024.”