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With only three games on Monday’s schedule and facing the last six days of the regular season, I am going to approach today’s article a little bit differently. Yes, I will cover all three games, only one of which is truly relevant to the postseason. The rest will set up what is to come in the final two series for each contender.
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Today’s Headlines
Padres Punch Postseason Ticket With Walk-Off
If the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres do hook up in the NL postseason, you can only hope that the games are as dramatic as what took place in the opener of their three-game series. Freddy Fermin’s one-out single in the bottom of the 11th scored Bryce Johnson from third to give the San Diego Padres a 5-4 win over the Brewers, clinching a playoff spot. The Padres become the fifth NL team to clinch a playoff spot. While still harboring hopes of winning the NL West, they trail the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers by 2½ games. This is the Padres’ fourth trip to the playoffs in the last six seasons.
Cardinals Dampen Giants’ Hopes
The San Francisco Giants entered the final week of the regular season with a slim chance to make the playoffs. That chance got even slimmer after the Giants dropped a 6-5 decision to the St. Louis Cardinals in the opener of a three-game series. Iván Herrera hit a two-run homer as part of a four-run fifth inning that proved to be the difference. After the Giants scored three in the bottom of the fourth to take a 4-3 lead, the Cardinals reclaimed the lead thanks to Herrera’s homer and a throwing error by second baseman Casey Schmitt that allowed the go-ahead run to score. The Giants are 3½ games behind the Cincinnati Reds and New York Mets for the final NL wild-card spot with five games left to play.
Atlanta Wins Ninth Straight; Albies Hurt
Atlanta is finishing the season in the opposite fashion in which it started the year. Ronald Acuña Jr. homered and Michael Harris II drove in three runs as Atlanta won its ninth in a row, beating the Washington Nationals 11-5. Atlanta second baseman Ozzie Albies left during his third-inning at-bat. He was diagnosed with a broken hamate bone in his left wrist during a swing, ending his season early. He broke the same wrist in July 2024 and missed two months. Acuna hit his 19th homer of the season in the first inning, then Drake Baldwin’s two-run single highlighted a five-run third inning that put Atlanta up 7-0.
Sale Of Rays Approved
The Tampa Bay Rays are officially in new hands as Patrick Zalupski’s $1.7 billion purchase was unanimously approved by MLB owners. The sale is expected to close this week. Stu Sternberg, who had been the majority owner, will retain about 10% of the team for a brief period before slowly reducing his ownership stake. Sternberg’s group bought the team for $200 million in 2004. The Rays were forced to play at a nearby minor-league stadium following the extensive damage done by Hurricane Milton to Tropicana Field. The Rays are hoping to play at Tropicana Field in 2026. The new group is expected to pursue plans for a new stadium after Sternberg halted his efforts for a new venue, even after city approval for funding.
The Final 6 Days
With the playoffs set to begin a week from today, five of the six divisions are either officially decided or all but. The Brewers (NL Central) and Philadelphia Phillies (NL East) are locked. The Los Angeles Dodgers (NL West) and, surprisingly, the Seattle Mariners (AL West) are on the precipice of division titles. The Toronto Blue Jays have a two-game lead over the New York Yankees in the AL East and hold the tiebreaker. The only division drama left in the AL Central is with the Detroit Tigers looking to protect their one-game advantage against the second-place Cleveland Guardians in a three-game series beginning today.
AL East: The Jays, But …
Unless the Blue Jays fall apart, this is their division. With a two-game lead over the second-place Yankees, they do face the third-place Boston Red Sox, who are five games behind the Jays while battling for a wild-card spot, and the Tampa Bay Rays, both at home. The Yankees are also at home, playing the Chicago White Sox, the AL’s worst team, and the disappointing Baltimore Orioles. So the possibility is there for a wild finish, albeit very slight. If there is drama, the Jays hold the tiebreaker over the Yankees and Red Sox.
AL Central: Final Duel
The Tigers were the best team in the AL for much of the first half of the season. But since mid-June, they have gone 39-46 and enter the road series against the second-place Guardians on a six-game losing streak, yet still one game up. Much of the Tigers’ struggles were overlooked because there was no one to challenge them in the Central. That was until the Guardians won 10 in a row, a streak broken Sunday. The Guardians trailed by as many as 15½ games on July 8.
Neither team can afford to be swept, as that will put any wild-card hopes in jeopardy. The Guardians have won six of the 10 games played between the two, so one more win gives Cleveland the tiebreaker. This is the only head-to-head series in the final week between teams fighting for the same spot.
The pitching matchups are Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal (13-5, 3.22 ERA) vs. Guardians RHP Gavin Williams (11-5, 3.06 ERA) today, Tigers RHP Jack Flaherty (8-14, 4.60 ERA) vs. Guardians RHP Tanner Bibee (11-11, 4.34 ERA) on Wednesday, and Tigers TBD vs. Guardians LHP Parker Messick (3-0, 2.08 ERA).
After this series, the Tigers finish at Fenway Park against the Red Sox, while the Guardians host the Texas Rangers. If the Guardians do win the division, the 15½ games will be the biggest comeback in MLB history.
AL West: Mariners? Yes, Mariners in Control
Following their three-game sweep of the Houston Astros, the Mariners are firmly in command of the AL West, not only with a three-game lead over the Astros, but also holding the tiebreaker. Now add in the fact that the Mariners return home to face MLB’s worst team, the Colorado Rockies, before the Dodgers come to town, and Seattle could be popping division-winning champagne as early as Wednesday. The Astros, meanwhile, will have to travel to West Sacramento to face the Athletics, then go to the Los Angeles Angels.
NL West: Dodgers on the Verge
As expected, the reigning World Series champion Dodgers are about to win the NL West. But did you think they would be the final NL division champion crowned? L.A. does have a 2½-game lead over the second-place Padres and holds the tiebreaker. But the Dodgers’ finishing path is paved with obstacles, facing the surging Arizona Diamondbacks, who are playing for a wild card, and the Mariners, both on the road. The Padres have two more games vs. the Brewers and conclude with the D’backs at Petco Park.
AL Wild Card: Musical Chairs
As it stands now, there are four teams playing for three spots, although one of those four (Tigers or Guardians) will be a division champion. The Yankees are in a good position, holding the No. 1 wild card and three games ahead of the Red Sox and four up on the Astros and Guardians, who are tied for the No. 3 spot. As mentioned, the Yankees host the White Sox and Orioles, while the Red Sox travel to the Jays and host the Tigers, the Astros are on the road against the A’s and Angels, and the Guardians host the Tigers and Rangers. Some tiebreakers are still up in the air due to season series being tied 3-3, with the next step being division record, then record within the league they play in.
NL Wild Card: Scramble For One Spot
Not quite as chaotic as the AL wild card, but still plenty of drama. The Cubs have already clinched a wild-card berth and are likely going to be in the No. 1 spot. The Padres are the only team that could overtake the Cubs, but San Diego is 2½ games back and is the probable No. 2 wild card. That leaves one spot left. Realistically, four teams are vying for that slot: The Reds, Mets, Diamondbacks, and Giants. (Sorry, Miami Marlins and Cardinals, who are mathematically alive.) The Reds and Mets are tied, with the D’backs one game back and the Giants four off the pace. The Reds are at home vs. the Pirates and finish at the Brewers, while the Mets are on the road against the Cubs and Marlins, the D’backs at home vs. the Dodgers and at the Padres, with the Giants at home for the Cardinals and Rockies.
Postseason Seeding
The Brewers and Phillies, the only two division champions thus far, will have the byes in the NL, with Milwaukee having a 2½-game lead over the Phillies for the No. 1 seed. The Phillies are four games ahead of the Dodgers, who will be the No. 3 seed, leaving the Cubs at No. 4 and the Padres at No. 5.
In the AL, the Blue Jays are looking like the No. 1 seed, with the Mariners at No. 2, although they only lead the Tigers by two games. That leaves the Central champion (Tigers or Guardians) as the No. 3. As the top wild card, the Yankees will be No. 4, with the Red Sox, Astros, and Central runner-up vying for the last two seeds.
From a bracket perspective, the matchups would be this if the season ended today:
AL No. 6 Guardians at AL No. 3 Tigers (winner faces AL No. 2 Mariners)
AL No. 5 Red Sox at AL No. 4 Yankees (winner faces AL No. 1 Blue Jays)
NL No. 6 Reds at NL No. 3 Dodgers (winner faces NL No. 2 Phillies)
NL No. 5 Padres at NL No. 4 Cubs (winner faces NL No. 1 Brewers)
Reminder that the Wild Card Series are best-of-three at the higher-seeded team’s stadium. The Division Series are best-of-five, with the League Championship Series and World Series best-of-seven. For more info on which teams hold the tiebreakers, check this out.
By The Numbers
⚾ The Guardians are looking to become the first AL team to have a 10-game losing streak and make the postseason. Three NL teams — the 1951 New York Giants, 1982 Atlanta, and the 2017 Dodgers — have qualified for the playoffs with a 10-game skid. They are the first team since the 2017 Dodgers to have a 10-game losing streak and a 10-game winning streak in the same season.
⚾ The Mets had the best record in MLB at 45-24 on June 12, but have gone 35-53 since.
⚾ The Rays played their final game of 2025 at Steinbrenner Field on Sunday. They finished with a 41-40 record and sold out 61 of 81 games, averaging 9,713 fans per game. They averaged 16,515 in 2024 at Tropicana Field. The A’s, also playing at a minor-league stadium until they move to Las Vegas, are averaging 9,488 fans at Sutter Health Park with six home games remaining.
Best Moments From Yesterday
More Defense
A day after making two remarkable catches at the wall, Nationals center fielder Jacob Young showed his ability to come in and make a diving grab.
Everybody Makes Plays
Two hands, no glove needed for this Padres fan.
Injuries and Other Moves
⚾ Atlanta made two moves to bolster its pitching staff for the final week, signing right-handed starter Charlie Morton and claiming right-handed reliever Joel Payamps off waivers from the Brewers. Morton was designated for assignment and released by the Tigers, while Payamps had been DFA’d by the Brewers over the weekend. Whether Morton pitches is still to be decided, but it will allow the 41-year-old to probably retire with the organization he grew up in.
⚾ The Pittsburgh Pirates are promoting left-handed starter Hunter Barco to make his MLB debut. Barco is the Pirates’ No. 6 prospect, per Baseball America.
Articles You Should Read
Baseball America’s minor-league Player of the Year and each system’s Player of the Year — Baseball America staff
Checking in on some second-half home run droughts — Jay Jaffe, FanGraphs
At 9 years old, he got a selfie with Verlander. Now they are teammates. — Maria Guardado, MLB.com
Ranking each postseason MLB contender’s pitching core — Stephen Nesbitt and Chad Jennings, The Athletic
Fantasy Baseball Coverage
