In Friday’s MLB Weekend Series Preview, I made a case for the Marlins to steal a series at Milwaukee. I figured that, with the obvious starting-pitching advantage (Marlins’ top three versus Milwaukee’s backend of the rotation), it would tell us a lot about Miami if they took advantage of that situation and won the road series. Instead, as Steve Drumwright mentioned this morning in MLB News & Moments, the Brewers swept the set with three comeback victories. Overall, Miami’s starting pitching did its job (15 IP, 3 ER), and if it weren’t for a short three-inning outing on Saturday by right-hander Max Meyer (3 IP, 2 ER), then maybe the road squad wouldn’t have lost 8-6.
Either way, we learned a lot about the Brew Crew’s makeup. I was impressed with the five runs allowed over 16 frames by SPs Logan Henderson, Shane Drohan, and Robert Gasser, respectively. They kept Milwaukee in each contest before the offense came through in the latter frames. As Steve said this morning: “What the Brewers do is beyond explanation, but they just keep ripping off wins in different ways.” He’s absolutely right.
Now it’s a fresh week and time for a new top-five list. We have a full slate of games, and for only the second time this season, all 30 clubs will be playing on a Monday. The last time this happened was on March 30. I’m jumping right into the top five without any pregame hype. No. 1 on the list below was about as obvious a choice as I’ve had so far this year.
No. 1: Orioles (49-51) at Red Sox (50-48)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
Hello, American League. That is probably what the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox are saying today as they get ready to meet in a huge three-game series at Fenway Park. Both teams have fought back into playoff contention while combining to win 20 straight contests. Boston has strung together its best winning streak since 1948 and will look to make it 14 consecutive victories in Monday’s series opener against an Orioles squad that’s on MLB’s second-current-longest winning streak at seven games.
Let’s begin with the hosts, who are coming off what I’d consider the most impressive sweep by any franchise so far in ’26. For MLB’s worst home team entering the second half to win a series 4-0 over the American League’s top squad, the Tampa Bay Rays, was incredible. Outfielder Wilyer Abreu’s four homers and six ribbies in the series certainly provided the offensive spark, but I’m blown away by how well Boston’s relief corps pitched. Over the weekend’s four matches, Boston’s bullpen held the Rays to one run over 16 ⅔ innings. In the process, they lowered their MLB-best reliever ERA to 3.09 on the year.
If we’re going to discuss Boston’s excellent bullpen numbers, then we can’t ignore the solid starting pitching by Baltimore in their latest series with Houston. Southpaw Trevor Rogers and right-hander Brandon Young held Houston to two runs over 13 ⅓ frames combined on Saturday and Sunday. The O’s allowed two Houston runs in each of their three victories. Despite a lackluster offense that managed only 16 knocks in the series, the Orioles still scored 12 runs in the sweep.
Boston and Baltimore have split six head-to-head meetings this year. The last time they faced off, the O’s won two of three contests at Fenway Park in early June. This upcoming series ranks high on the excitement scale (the winning streaks speak for themselves), the intrigue scale (division opponents), and the importance scale (Boston has a two-game lead over Baltimore for the third AL wild card position). I can’t give anyone a reason not to tune in for Monday’s opener. Someone’s winning streak is coming to an end. This is a high-drama series.
Monday’s expected starting pitching matchup will feature Baltimore’s Shane Baz (19 GS, 4-9, 4.19 ERA) versus Boston’s Payton Tolle (15 GS, 5-6, 3.11 ERA).
No. 2: Dodgers (63-37) at Phillies (55-45)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
It’s difficult to leave a series between two of the best teams in MLB out of the No. 1 spot, especially given their recent playoff history. However, Philadelphia just fell to the Mets in a very uninspiring series at home, and now they welcome the National League’s best club to town for a three-game set before another challenging test this weekend at Citizens Bank Park versus the New York Yankees. But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. The bottom line is that Philadelphia is only three games ahead of a trio of NL squads in the wild card race (St. Louis, Miami, and Pittsburgh). This is a huge stretch for last year’s NL East champs, who enter this week three games behind Atlanta for the division lead. Following their next six contests at home versus Los Angeles and New York, they’ll travel to Miami and Baltimore to face two postseason contenders.
In late May, the Dodgers won two of three contests in the only other get-together between these squads. Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler was dealt his only loss of the year in the first contest of that series, and he’ll get a chance at redemption in Game 2 of this set on Tuesday.
Here are the expected pitching matchups:
Monday: LAD – Emmet Sheehan (17 GS, 4-6, 4.81 ERA) versus PHI – Cristopher Sánchez (20 GS, 11-4, 2.62 ERA)
Tuesday: LAD – Eric Lauer (15 G, 12 GS, 4-5, 4.81 ERA) versus PHI – Zack Wheeler (15 GS, 10-1, 2.13 ERA)
Wednesday: LAD – Justin Wrobleski (16 G, 15 GS, 10-2, 2.69 ERA) versus PHI – Aaron Nola (20 GS, 3-7, 5.68 ERA)
You might think that I would have learned my lesson with the recent Marlins-Brewers series, but I’m going to say it again regarding the obvious starting pitching advantage that Philadelphia has this week against Los Angeles. Their top two arms take the mound on Monday and Tuesday versus a pair of Dodgers hurlers with identical ERAs near 5.00. If the Phillies offense can’t take advantage of Sheehan and Lauer on their home surface, then the lineup might need some tinkering come the August 3 Trade Deadline. This will be a telling series for the Phils. Tune in.
No. 3: White Sox (52-46) at Rangers (50-49)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
I have to go with two division leaders at No. 3. Despite both teams leading the weakest divisions in baseball, these are still three relevant contests when it comes to the AL Central and AL West races.
As it stands today, Chicago holds a one-game advantage over Cleveland in the AL Central after a 2-1 series win at Toronto over the weekend. Minnesota is lingering in the division hunt at four games back, and they’ll face the Guardians in a critical series beginning today (see No. 4 below). Meanwhile, the AL West is looking like a three-horse race between Texas, Seattle, and Houston. The Rangers lost two of three in Atlanta to begin the second half, which allowed the Mariners to pull to within a half-game of the division lead after their 2-1 series victory over the Giants. The Astros were swept at home by Baltimore over the weekend and have dropped four straight contests to fall four games back in the division.
Chicago’s expected starting pitcher on Monday is Erick Fedde (19 G, 9 GS, 5-6, 4.15 ERA). He’ll face the Rangers’ ace, Jacob deGrom (18 GS, 7-5, 3.49 ERA). The rest of the pitching matchups are a bit hazy, and nothing to get excited about. For a full list of probable pitching matchups in this series and everywhere else around the league, check out Nick Pollack’s SP Streamer Rankings for Monday.
This isn’t a heavyweight battle between division leaders. These are two solid, but not great teams. On the excitement scale, I’d probably give this a 5 out of 10. It’s the relevance and importance factors that get the high mark and lift this series to No. 3.
No. 4: Twins (49-51) at Guardians (52-48)
Series length: Four games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
These AL Central rivals have played two series in ’26, and Minnesota won both. The Twins took two out of three meetings at Cleveland in early May before their most recent 2-1 series victory at Target Field two weeks ago. This is your typical good pitching versus good hitting matchup. The Guardians enter this week with the American League’s fifth-best ERA (3.76), and they’ll face the AL’s top-scoring team (4.79 runs per game). I’m not sure if Minnesota’s 4.79 mark is all that impressive, given that it ranks seventh in MLB behind six National League clubs. But in the weaker American League, it matters, and right now the Twins are arguably the most consistent offensive team in the Junior Circuit.
On the flip side, Minnesota’s 4.66 team ERA ranks 12th in the AL, while Cleveland’s 3.92 runs per game ranks last in MLB. So, who has the edge in this series between a pair of flawed clubs hoping to find a way into the postseason via a division title? If you’re going to make me pick the winner of this very important four-game set, then I’m leaning toward the road team as long as their below-average bullpen can keep runs off the board late in games. I like Cleveland’s starting pitching in this series by a hair over Minnesota’s, but the Twins’ offense is certainly capable of scoring runs off their opponents’ arms. It feels like a four-game split coming. Here are the expected SP matchups:
Monday: MIN – Joe Ryan (20 GS, 6-4, 2.85 ERA) versus CLE – Tanner Bibee (20 GS, 3-9, 3.90 ERA)
Tuesday: MIN – Jack Anderson (0 GS, 8 IP, 3.38 ERA) versus CLE – Parker Messick (19 GS, 8-5, 2.73 ERA)
Wednesday: MIN – Bailey Ober (14 GS, 7-3, 4.32 ERA) versus CLE – Slade Cecconi (19 GS, 4-6, 4.55 ERA)
Thursday: MIN – Taj Bradley (19 GS, 9-4, 3.85 ERA) versus CLE – Gavin Williams (20 GS, 10-5, 4.00 ERA)
No. 5: Rays (56-42) at Blue Jays (46-53)
Series length: Four games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
I’m not going to disguise this series as one involving two division rivals playing solid baseball. There’s no comparison between this battle and the top-ranked series on this week’s list when it comes to how well the clubs are playing. Tampa Bay is on a five-game losing streak, and Toronto is only 25-27 at Rogers Centre, a place where they went an AL-best 54-27 in 2025. I could easily make a case for a couple of matchups listed below that missed the top five (Pittsburgh-New York, San Diego-Atlanta), but I have to put this AL East series at the fifth spot because of the overall importance to the division and wild card race.
Entering Monday, Tampa Bay holds a 1 ½-game lead over the Yankees in the division, and after Boston’s weekend sweep of the Rays, they are now within striking distance of the AL East lead at six games back. Who saw that coming? If Toronto wants to make the same kind of run as Boston, now is the time. The Blue Jays are 10 ½ games behind Tampa Bay in the division, and 4 ½ back of the Red Sox for the final AL wild card spot.
Here’s the biggest worry I have with the defending AL champs. For as bizarre as it was to watch San Diego’s Fernando Tatis Jr. go homerless until finally going yard for the first time this season on May 30 versus Washington, I think this round-tripper drought by Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is even more shocking. Guerrero has six road homers this year, and still hasn’t gone yard at Rogers Centre. I’ll be honest, since Vlad belted 48 homers in 2021, I’ve never looked at him as a big-time power bat. He’s a good all-around batter, and can be expected to hit in the range of 28-30 homers per year since ’21. But to have only six long balls on July 20? No, no, no. Something is wrong with the Blue Jays star, and if indeed reports are true that the first baseman is dealing with lower back issues, then I’m not sure what Toronto’s answer will be in the second half. They desperately need a healthy and productive Vlad. Maybe the six-time All-Star will find his power stroke over these four critical games versus the Rays. If not, good luck beating a Tampa Bay squad that already has a 5-1 head-to-head record versus Toronto in ’26.
Keep an eye on Monday’s opener between two of the AL ERA leaders, Tampa Bay’s Nick Martinez (18 GS, 8-2, 2.65 ERA) and Toronto’s Dylan Cease (17 GS, 6-4, 2.56 ERA). Cease is two-thirds of an inning short of technically qualifying for the AL ERA leaderboard. The Jays have played 99 games, and Cease has tossed 98 ⅓ frames. On the assumption he tosses two or more innings tonight, he’ll be back in the ERA leader conversation with Martinez. As it stands today, Martinez ranks third in the AL ERA race, and Cease could move past Boston’s Sonny Gray (2.48 ERA) if he has a good showing this evening.
Missed the Top Five
Pirates (52-48) at Yankees (55-44): Three games
Padres (49-50) at Atlanta (57-41): Four games
Giants (42-57) at Royals (40-60): Three games
Mets (42-58) at Brewers (62-37): Three games
Tigers (46-53) at Cubs (56-43): Three games
Marlins (52-48) at Astros (47-54): Three games
Nationals (50-50) at Rockies (40-61): Three games
A’s (42-57) at Diamondbacks (51-48): Three games
Reds (45-53) at Mariners (50-50): Three games
Cardinals (51-47) at Angels (39-61): Three games
