It’s been a rough week at Citizens Bank Park for Philly fans. From Kyle Schwarber losing in the final round of the Home Run Derby versus Jordan Walker, to Cristopher Sánchez taking the loss in the All-Star Game after yielding three runs in the first inning to the American League, and continuing with the last-place Mets winning 4-1 in the second-half opener at Philadelphia in Thursday’s only contest. If this is a sign of things to come, then The Fightin’ Phils are in trouble.
I’m not buying it. Philadelphia will be fine. Entering Friday, they trail Atlanta by 2 ½ games in the NL East with 64 games remaining on the schedule. A lot of baseball to be played and much to figure out as the second half gets underway.
This weekend’s top five list will not include the aforementioned Mets-Phillies matchup. Sorry, but there are too many high-quality series kicking off the final half of the regular season to justify allowing any contests involving the National League’s second-worst team.
Below you’ll find three interleague series that include five teams currently in the playoff field and one sitting two games out of a wild card spot. There is one AL East matchup that, two weeks ago, I would never have considered, given how poorly the host team was playing. You’ll also see a National League matchup and possible playoff preview between a division leader and current wild card squad.
This weekend is deep with relevant and entertaining series that just missed the top five list. Going forward, creating that list will undoubtedly be the most challenging aspect of the MLB Series Preview. Many series from here on will have some relevance to the postseason picture, but my job is to take in all factors, including the entertainment and rivalry value. With that in mind, let’s begin with the No. 1 series of the weekend.
No. 1: Dodgers (61-36) at Yankees (54-42)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
There were two missing ingredients in this series that nearly stopped me from ranking it at No. 1.
- Aaron Judge will not be hitting (10-day IL, stress fracture in rib).
- Shohei Ohtani will not be pitching (left knee inflammation).
The two best players in the sport have seven MVP awards between them. Ohtani is at least expected to bat in this series. Still, to not witness a top 10 pitcher and the greatest all-around player in the world face MLB’s best hitter at least once in a series between these storied franchises is a bit of a downer. All that said, this will still be an exciting battle involving the 2024 World Series participants.
I mentioned relevance a couple of times already. As for how relevant this series is to both teams, I’ll be honest: it really only affects the Yankees right now. The Dodgers have the NL West unofficially wrapped up. They are the only club with a double-digit lead in their division (currently ahead of second-place Arizona by 11 ½ games), and unless you believe there is a ’25 Cleveland Guardians type run coming in the second half by Arizona or San Diego, then let’s call it what it is…over. However, there is still home-field advantage to be worked out on the National League side. Los Angeles leads Milwaukee by 1 ½ games for the No. 1 seed. The next closest team in the race for the NL’s best record is Atlanta, at five games off the pace.
Meanwhile, the Yankees are playing for an AL East title and enter Friday trailing Tampa Bay by three games. The good news for New York is that they have a comfortable 6 ½-game advantage over the first team out of the playoff picture, the Minnesota Twins, and are 3 ½ games ahead of Cleveland and Chicago for the AL’s top wild-card spot. That doesn’t mean the Bronx Bombers are a lock for the postseason, especially if recent reports about Judge not returning until late August at the earliest are correct.
If you want to call this matchup a rematch of the 2024 Fall Classic, then be my guest. But it seems like a while ago now when the Dodgers cruised to a 4-1 series win for their first of two consecutive World Series titles. Either way, the crowd should be raucous at Yankee Stadium this weekend.
Expected pitching matchups:
Friday: LAD – Roki Sasaki (16 GS, 3-5, 5.33 ERA) versus NYY – Gerrit Cole (9 GS, 3-4, 4.04 ERA)
Saturday: LAD – Emmet Sheehan (17 GS, 4-6, 4.81 ERA) versus NYY – Ryan Weathers (18 GS, 3-7, 4.15 ERA)
Sunday: LAD – Yoshinobu Yamamoto (17 GS, 9-6, 2.85 ERA) versus NYY- Cam Schlittler (20 GS, 9-5, 2.05 ERA)
No. 2: Rays (56-38) at Red Sox (46-48)
Series length: Four games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) *Doubleheader on Friday
I can’t believe that Boston begins the second half with the No. 2 spot on the top-five list. Seriously, they were dead in the water before a 9-0 road trip to end the first half brought them to within a half-game of an AL wild card berth. What is going on here? MLB’s worst home team (17-27) goes on the road and sweeps the Angels, White Sox, and Mets, respectively. Now, let’s not get carried away with two of those opponents, but winning three straight at Rate Field versus the first-place White Sox was impressive. More impressive was outscoring their opponents 48-14 over those nine victories. Have the Sox truly turned the page and become the team that more than a few pundits believed they could be at the start of the campaign? I’m not sure yet.
The bottom line is that Boston will not make the postseason if they don’t improve their play at Fenway Park. Let’s see how they do on their upcoming 10-game homestand before drawing any conclusions. That homestand begins on Friday with a doubleheader against the American League’s top squad, the Tampa Bay Rays. The AL East leaders are 5-1 versus Boston this year, and the last time these clubs met in early June, they swept the Sox at Tropicana Field.
Keep an eye on Sunday’s expected pitching matchup between Tampa Bay’s Shane McClanahan (17 GS, 8-5, 2.83 ERA) and Boston’s Sonny Gray (17 GS, 11-1, 2.54 ERA). McClanahan hasn’t allowed a run over two July starts spanning 12 ⅓ frames, while Gray is arguably the hottest pitcher in baseball right now, with his lone loss of the season coming three months ago on April 14 at Minnesota. Gray has tossed at least six innings over his last eight starts and has allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of those outings. His 12 quality starts are tied for the AL lead.
No. 3: Marlins (52-45) at Brewers (59-37)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
I believe that this will be the most telling series about who the Miami Marlins are in the second half. Very few people, including myself, thought Miami would be this good. The Fish proved in the first half that they are capable of getting on base at a high level (ranked in the top 10 in MLB in batting average and on-base percentage), can pitch (ranked in the top 10 in MLB in ERA and WHIP), and can win close games (14-10 in one-run contests). This weekend, they face a Brewers team with the second-best record in baseball and a 29-18 record at home.
Miami is 21-25 on the road, but this series feels like one that the Marlins need to steal. The Brewers will be without their top three starting pitchers this weekend. Brandon Woodruff (15-day IL, right shoulder inflammation), Kyle Harrison (15-day IL, left forearm tightness), and their ace Jacob Misiorowski (tired arm). Meanwhile, Miami plans to deploy its top three SPs and should have the advantage on the bump. Here are the expected pitching matchups:
Friday: MIA – Sandy Alcantara (20 GS, 10-5, 3.99 ERA) versus MIL – Logan Henderson (6 GS, 3-1, 3.18 ERA)
Saturday: MIA – Max Meyer (19 GS, 9-1, 2.58 ERA) versus MIL – Shane Drohan (19 G, 9 GS, 4-3, 3.09 ERA)
Sunday: MIA – Eury Pérez (16 GS, 5-7, 3.78 ERA) versus MIL – Robert Gasser (9 GS, 2-4, 5.24 ERA)
If the Marlins are to lose this set, as so many teams have this year at American Family Field, I’m not saying it’s necessarily a bad sign going forward. However, I am stating that a series win would tell us a heckuva lot more about this club than a defeat would. How good are the Marlins? The next three contests could answer that question. Are they going to hang in the wild card race (currently one game ahead of St. Louis for the final NL wild card spot), and perhaps even the NL East (four games behind Atlanta)? There are many questions yet to be answered. I believe Miami is good enough to win a wild card spot, but they need to prove that they can win a series like this one, especially against a club that will be without its top arms.
No. 4: Rangers (49-47) at Atlanta (55-40)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
This is the only series to begin the second half involving a pair of division leaders. Texas leads the AL West by 1 ½ games over Seattle while Atlanta holds a 2 ½ game advantage over Philadelphia. There are plenty of question marks surrounding both clubs. For instance, I can’t figure out how the Rangers can possibly be in first place with a -15 run differential on the season, and a starting pitching staff that has only one player with an ERA under 4.00 (Jacob deGrom, 3.49 ERA).
I understand that the American League is weak, and the AL West is probably the worst division in MLB. But how does a team like Texas stay above .500 in a year where they are once again without the services of two-time World Series MVP, Corey Seager, for at least a good portion of the campaign, and whose top home run hitters have combined to play for eight different franchises since 2021 (Jake Burger and Joc Pederson)? Whatever secret sauce the Rangers are stirring up in the clubhouse is obviously working fairly well, all things considered.
Texas will face an Atlanta team that has been in a slog since the start of June. Atlanta’s 15-20 record since June 1 has allowed the Phillies and Marlins to get back in the NL East race. Remember, Georgia’s team had a nine-game lead in the division on May 31. The good news is that they expect Ronald Acuña Jr. back from the IL (hamstring strain) early next week. The 2023 NL MVP is set to begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Gwinnett this weekend, and although he got off to a sluggish start this season by his standards before the injury (.251/.373/.421 slash line), he did hit a grand slam and drove in five runs with the team’s FCL club on Thursday.
Friday’s series opener will pair Rangers’ right-hander Cal Quantrill (19 G, 4 GS, 3-1, 3.11 ERA) against Atlanta’s Chris Sale (17 GS, 9-6, 2.20 ERA).
No. 5: Pirates (50-47) at Guardians (51-46)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
Well, I can’t say that I wasn’t impressed with Pittsburgh’s home sweep of Milwaukee to close out the first half last weekend. Paul Skenes allowed two runs on three knocks over 5 ⅓ frames for the win during Sunday’s 14-5 shellacking of the Brew Crew. That was a great way to enter the All-Star break for the Buccos, who come into this road series versus Cleveland two games behind Miami for the third NL wild card spot.
What would impress me even more is if Pittsburgh has a winning record over its next six contests at Progressive Field and Yankee Stadium. After their series with New York early next week, the Pirates return home for a pair of three-game sets with the Cubs and Diamondbacks. Pittsburgh’s start to the second half is no picnic. My biggest question with this club is where the offense is going to come from while Oneil Cruz (10-day IL, left-hand fracture) and rookie Konnor Griffin (60-day IL, torn left ring finger) are not available. Cruz is expected back by the end of July, and Griffin probably won’t be ready to go until September.
Cleveland is still waiting on their star José Ramírez to return from a lengthy absence on the IL due to a left hamate fracture that has sidelined him since mid-June. He could return by the end of July, but in the meantime, the American League’s lowest-scoring team is going to continue relying on its pitching staff. A staff that held the Miami Marlins to five runs during the team’s three-game sweep at LoanDepot Park last weekend. The Guardians enter the second half tied with the White Sox atop the AL Central.
Expected pitching matchups:
Friday: PIT – Jared Jones (8 GS, 1-1, 4.37 ERA) versus CLE – Gavin Williams (19 GS, 10-4, 3.81 ERA)
Saturday: PIT – Braxton Ashcraft (19 GS, 9-3, 3.49 ERA) versus CLE – Joey Cantillo (20 GS, 8-4, 3.56 ERA)
Sunday: PIT – Paul Skenes (20 GS, 8-8, 3.57 ERA) versus CLE – Tanner Bibee (20 GS, 3-9, 3.90 ERA)
Missed the Top Five
Mets (41-57 ) at Phillies (54-44): Three games *Mets won Thursday’s opener, 4-1.
White Sox (50-45) at Blue Jays (45-51): Three games
Twins (48-49) at Cubs (54-42): Three games
Orioles (46-51) at Astros (47-51): Three games
Padres (48-48) at Royals (38-59): Three games
Reds (43-52) at Rockies (39-59): Three games
Tigers (44-52) at Angels (38-59): Three games
Nationals (48-49) at A’s (41-55): Three games
Cardinals (50-45) at Diamondbacks (49-47): Three games
Giants (41-55) at Mariners (48-49): Three games
