When Major League Baseball went to a 12-team (six from each league) postseason format in 2022, I was skeptical. For starters, adding more teams to the playoffs in any professional sports league generally devalues the regular season. Just look at the NBA. Allowing 20 of the league’s 30 teams (including the silly play-in round) to all have a chance at the Larry O’Brien trophy after 82 games is ridiculous. That’s why the NBA regular season is generally considered America’s most boring among all major sports leagues. There’s not enough riding on it to make anyone care until playoff time. If you have a bad team, you could still get in.
Compare the NBA format to MLB. For a long time, baseball had four teams (four division winners) make up the postseason field before switching to a six-division, one-wild-card-per-league format in 1995. In 2012, a second WC club was added to each league, with the four wild-card teams playing a single-elimination game to decide who goes to the LDS.
I’m giving a quick history lesson to point out that the beauty of the MLB regular season (as long as it doesn’t keep expanding and become like the NBA and NHL) is that the division and wild-card races make it a fascinating ride from beginning to end. I’m looking at this week’s matchups, and even though the National League division leaders are comfortably ahead of the pack (Brewers are in the worst shape at four games up on the Cubs), Milwaukee, Los Angeles, and Atlanta are all still playing for something very important…a bye to the LDS.
When MLB had two wild-card representatives from each league, the division winners earned automatic byes to the Best-of-5 LDS. If a division leader had a commanding advantage come September, they knew it was safe to skip pitching starts and rest their every-day players before October arrived. Now? I suppose teams can still do that if they have a huge lead on the other division leaders. However, because of the current format MLB uses, teams like Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Milwaukee cannot afford to take it easy late in the campaign given that only two NL franchises earn a bye. That is a beautiful thing.
I would struggle to write MLB Series Preview twice a week if this league used the same format as the NBA. Frankly, I’d be bored. But because a series like the Brewers-Dodgers (see below) involves not only two of the top-five clubs in baseball but also impacts potential first-round byes and home-field advantage come playoff time, it makes for an entertaining and highly relevant matchup.
The MLB regular-season format is as good as it gets. That’s what keeps me motivated. Speaking of the Brewers-Dodgers, let’s get to the easy No. 1 selection on this week’s top-five series list.
No. 1: Brewers (75-47) at Dodgers (73-49)
Series length: Four games (Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday) *Brewers won Thursday’s opener, 5-4.
If Thursday’s Game 1 didn’t entice you to watch the next three contests of this series, then I’m not sure anything will. Endings don’t get much better than what we saw last night at Dodger Stadium between these NL powerhouses.
Brief recap: The Dodgers had a 4-2 lead in the ninth, and their closer Edwin Díaz blew his third save in a week after surrendering three runs in the frame for his second loss of ’26. Since returning from the IL in late July (loose bone fragments in his right elbow kept him sidelined for three months), Diaz has surrendered five earned runs in as many innings pitched. He has an 11.57 ERA over 11 ⅔ IP this season. With the victory, Milwaukee increased its lead for the NL’s best record to 1 ½ games over Atlanta and is now two games up on Los Angeles.
I could probably give you a half-dozen more reasons why this series ranks at the top this weekend, but the combined records between the clubs and the race for the NL’s overall No. 1 seed should be worthy enough for most. If not, then how about the upcoming pitching matchups, which will include the American League’s two-time reigning Cy Young Award winner (Tarik Skubal), the front-runner for this year’s NL Cy Young Award (Jacob Misiorowski), and the 2026 World Series MVP (Yoshinobu Yamamoto).
Here is a look at the expected pitching matchups.
Friday: MIL – Robert Gasser (13 GS, 3-4, 4.57 ERA) versus LAD – Yoshinobu Yamamoto (21 GS, 11-7, 2.64 ERA)
Saturday: MIL – Jacob Misiorowski (22 GS, 11-5, 1.76 ERA) versus LAD – Justin Wrobleski (20 G, 19 GS, 11-4, 3.44 ERA)
Sunday: MIL – Logan Henderson (11 GS, 6-2, 2.88 ERA) versus LAD – Tarik Skubal (18 GS, 7-6, 2.93 ERA)
No. 2: White Sox (62-58) at Tigers (60-61)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
Admittedly, this is a big drop from No. 1. If we look at this from the combined winning percentage viewpoint, I wouldn’t take offense to anyone who felt this series between the top two AL Central squads was unworthy of the No. 2 position. In fact, if these clubs weren’t in the same division and weren’t separated by only 2 ½ games in the standings, I’d struggle finding a place for this matchup in the top five.
All that aside, the importance and relevance of this series not only on the AL Central, but the wild card race as well, makes it difficult to ignore. This is a division that appears to be going down to the wire, and every time I think one team is going to separate itself from the rest of the pack, they end up going into a slump. A good example: The White Sox. Entering August, Chicago had a 6 ½ game lead over Detroit in the division. After a sluggish 4-7 start to the month, Chicago’s lead over a Tigers squad that has gone 8-3 over that same period is down to 2 ½ games, as mentioned earlier.
Detroit has a 4-0 series record in August, and after shutting out the Guardians on Thursday, 3-0, without recording a strikeout, the Tigers passed Texas in the standings and hold the AL’s third wild-card spot by a half-game. There are still six-plus weeks to go in the regular season, but watching a franchise swap its top two pitchers at the Trade Deadline, and then go on a nice run like we’re witnessing this month, is another reason why I love the MLB regular season. You just never know when a team like the Tigers, or the Red Sox as we saw in July, will start to click. They both had me fooled, and even though I have my doubts about Detroit sneaking into the postseason, it’s impossible to overlook the team’s AL-best +90 run differential. I do not have the answer to the following question, but I’d love to find out: When was the last time, if ever, a team with a losing record led its league in run differential this late in the season? Let me know if you have that answer.
These rivals have met six times this year, with both sweeping a three-game series in their home park. Detroit is 32-28 at home, while Chicago is 25-34 on the road. They’ll meet four more times next month at Rate Field in Chicago.
No. 3: Cardinals (61-60) at Cubs (71-51)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
You probably wouldn’t think that Chicago and St. Louis have played each other close in their head-to-head matchups this year, given that the Baby Bears have a near 10-game advantage over their arch-rivals in the NL Central. But like Atlanta losing its season series to the last-place Mets this week despite being ahead of them by 20 ½ games in the NL East, sometimes it’s surprising when a lesser team outplays a much better one over 13 division contests. It happens, and that is the case here. The Cubs and Cardinals have split 10 games and will have three more contests to decide the season-series winner.
The last time these clubs met was in St. Louis at the close of July, when Chicago won three of four contests. Both teams have won three consecutive series and, in August, have a combined 16-7 record. Beginning today at 2:20 p.m. ET, the Cardinals, who are three games out of the NL wild-card picture, will play their first of 11 straight road contests. St. Louis has a respectable 29-26 record away from Busch Stadium, and following this weekend’s series, they’ll travel to Cincinnati for five games against the Reds, including a doubleheader on Monday, and then conclude the week with a three-game set against one of the franchises they are hoping to pass in the NL wild-card race, the Philadelphia Phillies.
It’s a completely different scenario for Chicago going forward. The Cubs are safely ahead for the top wild-card spot by six games, and unless they plan on having a second 10-game losing streak between now and the final day of the regular season on Sept. 27, then there’s no reason to believe Chicago won’t be in the playoff field. The real question is whether they can catch the Brewers in the NL Central at four games back. Milwaukee and Chicago will play seven more regular-season games, with the next one coming on August 31 at Wrigley Field.
Friday’s pitching matchup pairs Cardinals southpaw Matthew Liberatore (23 GS, 5-9, 5.15 ERA) and Chicago’s right-hander Clay Holmes (10 GS, 4-5, 2.86 ERA).
No. 4: Yankees (68-53) at Blue Jays (59-64)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
Here we are again with the Yankees and Blue Jays making the top-five list for the third time this season. The reason is that every time these AL East foes meet, my expectation has been that Toronto will turn its season around with a good showing. They’ll find some sort of momentum to get back on track. But it hasn’t happened. In their first get-together on May 18 in New York, the Blue Jays were 21-25 and 9 ½ games out of first place. They split that four-game series, and when they met again on June 12 in Toronto, the Blue Jays were 33-36 and nine games behind in the division. The Yankees won that series, 2-1, and Toronto has since fallen to 16-plus games behind Tampa Bay in the AL East, but is only two games back of the final AL WC.
Now the question is: Can the Jays sneak into the postseason despite Vladimir Guerrero Jr. still being homerless at Rogers Centre? I don’t think so, but as I’ve said many times this year, given the state of the American League, whoever snags that final WC berth could very well have a losing record. The good news for Toronto is that they are playing better of late. Series wins over the Phillies and the Red Sox are possibly a sign of things to come. However, their next three series could make or break them. Following this weekend against New York, they play three contests at Tampa Bay followed by a three-game battle in the Bronx in the final meeting of the year with the Yankees.
New York’s playoff outlook is pretty cut and dry from where I’m sitting. They likely won’t be catching the red-hot Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East at 6 ½ games out. They also likely won’t fall out of the No. 4 v. No. 5 ALWC matchup come October (currently eight games ahead of the third WC holder, Detroit). The only question is whether the Yankees will host the ALWC (they have a three-game lead over Boston for the top wild-card spot).
Yankees right-hander Gerrit Cole (14 GS, 6-5, 3.35 ERA) takes on Toronto’s Shane Bieber (9 GS, 3-2, 5.48 ERA) in Friday’s opener.
No. 5: Diamondbacks (64-58) at Atlanta (73-48)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
Just when I thought Arizona was on the rise after another impressive series win over the Dodgers last weekend, they respond with a terrible series loss at home to the Rockies. The Diamondbacks are one of those franchises that I would never trust in a postseason series. They don’t have those strikeout pitchers that every team needs at some point in the playoffs. Arizona has the fewest total punchouts in MLB entering Friday. Their ace, Eduardo Rodriguez, leads the club with 101 strikeouts in 143 ⅓ frames. No other pitcher on the D-backs has more than 83 K’s.
While I don’t particularly trust Arizona in the big games (if they do indeed earn a wild-card berth), that’s not to say that over a 162-game regular season, they can’t beat the best squads out there. They proved that last weekend by winning their season series with the two-time defending World Series champs, 7-6. Next up, Arizona plays the NL East’s top club in a series that will showcase the top starting arms for both sides. If these clubs were about to meet in a five-game playoff series, my guess is that the pitching matchups would look close to what we’ll see this weekend in Atlanta. If not the exact matchups, then certainly these would be the six starting pitchers going in the first three games if I were managing both sides.
Friday: ARI – Brandon Pfaadt (21 G, 11 GS, 6-1, 3.36 ERA) versus ATL – Chris Sale (21 GS, 12-7, 2.20 ERA)
Saturday: ARI – Eduardo Rodriguez (24 GS, 11-4, 2.70 ERA) versus ATL – Grant Holmes (23 G, 22 GS, 7-4, 3.47 ERA)
Sunday: ARI – Michael Soroka (16 GS, 8-3, 2.92 ERA) versus ATL – Bryce Elder (23 GS, 8-7, 4.03 ERA)
It should be a good pitching weekend between two clubs fighting for postseason positioning. These teams split a four-game April series at Chase Field in their only other meeting this year.
Missed the Top Five
Phillies (65-58) at Twins (60-63): Four games *Phillies won Thursday’s opener, 7-1.
Marlins (62-60) at Reds (58-62): Three games
Red Sox (65-56) at Pirates (59-64): Three games
Nationals (60-63) at Mets (53-69): Three games
Padres (65-57) at Guardians (59-63): Three games
Orioles (58-63) at Rays (74-46): Four games
Mariners (57-65) at Astros (62-60): Three games
Royals (49-73) at Angels (48-74): Three games
Rangers (60-62) at A’s (47-74): Three games
Rockies (48-73) at Giants (50-71): Three games
