For years on end, the state of the Central divisions has been some sort of a running joke in baseball. While the so-called East Coast bias is ever-present and the West Coast is full of sunshine and glamour franchises, the middle of the country is full of smaller teams in small markets, all of whom never seem to command the kind of attention usually reserved for the Judges and Decoys of the world. In the case of the NL Central, though, that kind of neglect has become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Since the glory days of the champion Cubs in 2016, no NL Central team has even sniffed a 100-win season, with all full-season division champs averaging a mere 93 wins. Moreover, the division has failed to make noise in the postseason, with the 2019 Cardinals being the last member of this crew to advance as far as the NLCS. Staring in 2021, teams from the Central have lost their past six playoff series, with a ghastly 2-10 mark in those games. Considering the top-heavy state of the NL in 2025, it sure seems like the Central will take its regular place as the league’s punching bag, as it is reflected in the win projections.
With all five teams grouped together around .500, it would seem that anyone can go on a run, but is there any real standout between these squads? All jokes aside, there are many star players to consider and interesting developments in the Central that can at least produce a fun race toward the division title.
#5 – Pittsburgh Pirates – 2024 Record: 76-86 – 2025 Projection: 78-84
When your biggest offseason storyline revolves around a trading card instead of free-agent additions, you know that your franchise is in trouble. And if the pursuit of said trading card was a failure, what can be expected in terms of a major league roster? Despite a somewhat promising 2024 that saw the Pirates improve in several areas, the front office did what they do best – nothing of note. Free agent additions like Tommy Pham, Adam Frazier, and Andrew Heaney are fine as veteran depth, but far from the talent needed to really move the needle.
This is why Pittsburgh is set to face 2025 in a very familiar state, hoping and praying that their youngsters develop at the same time as they chase an unlikely division title. The problem with this assumption is that the team already showed that they have enough talent to build around, and even a middling effort to improve could have made them a solid contender in the Central, where even 85 wins could be enough to “earn” the top spot.
Paul Skenes emerged as a stud last year and is arguably a Cy Young candidate at age 22, Oneil Cruz has started to hone in his athleticism and can become a force as he enters his prime, Joey Bart may be a true post-hype find at catcher, and the always-underrated Bryan Reynolds provides stability at the top of the lineup. At the same time, the lineup is full of automatic outs and the staff has several league-average arms that are unlikely to sustain several low-scoring games that keep the team competitive. The recent injury to Jared Jones, the projected #2 starter, is a reminder that the Pirates have almost no margin for error.
If Skenes can make 30+ starts and David Bednar & Co. hold a steady bullpen, there is a path to 83-85 wins, but this team would need many breaks to go their way in order to get there. With little hope for mid-season reinforcements, 2025 is more likely to give us a fun but frustrating Pittsburgh squad, with the potential Andrew McCutchen retirement tour serving as a nice backdrop. If nothing else, at least their home games are always a treat to watch.
#4 – Cincinnati Reds – 2024 Record: 77-85 – 2025 Projection: 78-84
Despite a couple of winning seasons and the emergence of a few homegrown stars, the Reds have been a forgotten franchise for the better part of the last decade. With their last full-season playoff appearance coming way back in 2013, there are only a few other teams in desperate need of a makeover as Cincinnati. Having said that, they may be in a good position to finally make some noise and emerge as a dark horse in 2025.
Nabbing Terry Francona from the jaws of retirement may prove to be one of the offseason’s biggest transactions, as the franchise immediately gained a level of respectability not seen in the past era of Reds baseball. Moreover, Francona’s arrival coincides with a roster full of players ready to break out, which is exactly the kind of profile the famous manager has maximized during his career. The exploits of Elly De La Cruz are a proven commodity at this point, and he will need to step it up and become the unquestioned leader of this offense instead of a highlight-making one-man show.
Aside from Elly, the Reds will now feature a hungry Gavin Lux, the quiet leadership of Jose Trevino behind the plate, and former prospects like Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Matt McLain aiming to become more than just solid regulars. For this, it is essential that the Reds forge an identity on offense that is not so dependent on boom-or-bust, as highlighted by their issue with strikeouts in 2024. The new-look lineup appears to have enough speed and experience to play a different brand of baseball, even in their bandbox ballpark.
Regardless of how the offense plays out, Cincinnati looks poised to trot out one of the most underrated rotations in baseball. Hunter Greene has already shown how electric he can be, and he will now be flanked by trade acquisition Brady Singer and fellow homegrown hurler Nick Lodolo as true #2 options. Nick Martinez helps round out a solid core that will give the Reds a chance in almost every game, while the mercurial Alexis Díaz will at least make save opportunities entertaining.
All in all, the Reds appear to have what it takes to make a splash in this very winnable division. If history is any indication, Francona has also made the most of his last two season debuts following time off, reaching the playoff in his first attempts with Boston and Cleveland. With the chance of reinvigorating another struggling franchise on his way to the Hall of Fame, Tito may end up being the perfect manager to revive baseball in the Queen City.
#3 – St. Louis Cardinals – 2024 Record: 83-79 – 2025 Projection: 79-83
For several years, the Cardinals were the class of the Central, with an uncanny ability to contend every season on middling budgets. Alas, that magic touch appears to have faded around the self-described “Best Fans in Baseball”. Following two straight October-less seasons, it appeared that the franchise would finally commit to a rebuild or at least try to do things a bit differently. Instead, their offseason was dominated by a non-transaction, while they failed to sign any free agent of note or make a trade to bolster their roster. It all points to the Cardinals trying to take advantage of their weak division and trusting that their current brand of boring but competent baseball can be enough to make them relevant.
That plan looks viable at first glimpse, as the likes of Jordan Walker and Victor Scott II are young enough to figure things out on offense, while Masyn Winn already showed he can become the next homegrown star. If you squint a bit at their pitching, Sonny Gray may be the best understated pitcher of his generation, while Ryan Helsley adds a much-needed element of electricity to close out games. It would not be surprising to see this core carry a flawed roster to 80+ wins and meaningful games in September.
However, this is also the franchise who failed to trade Nolan Arenado and now has to figure out if last year was only a blip or the start of a sad decline, was forced to move Willson Contreras to first base, and plans to give around 100 starts to the uninspiring trio of Erick Fedde, Miles Mikolas, and Steven Matz. With no clear internal options to make an impact in 2025, the Cardinals may end up being the most forgotten team in this maligned division, as at least the Pirates have Paul Skenes Day to look forward to once a week.
With more than a few former Cards flourishing elsewhere (think Randy Arozarena and Tommy Edman), it has become fair to question if the Cardinals Way needs a complete makeover in this day and age. Seeing that 2023’s 71-win disaster was followed up with a mediocre 2024, maybe the best course of action for this front office would be to commit to a full examination of its reality instead of the half-measures we are seeing with its current construction. Outside of Winn serving as a constant web gem in highlight reels, don’t expect to see a lot of Cardinals content on social media.
#2 – Milwaukee Brewers – 2024 Record: 93-69 – 2025 Projection: 81-81
On the other side of the roster-building spectrum, we find the Brewers, fresh off a spectacular season that ended with typical playoff heartbreak. And as it usually happens in Milwaukee, the team will enter a new season with plenty of turnover. Franchise stalwarts Willy Adames (free agency) and Devin Williams (trade) left for greener pastures, and yet there is enough optimism around this franchise that the conservative win projection seems more of a product of all the question marks surrounding this roster.
For starters, the offense will again hope that Christian Yelich can enjoy a full season following years of constant injuries. Yelich and Rhys Hoskins are the only veterans of at least 30 years of age expected to garner significant at-bats for this team, as the brunt of this offense will fall on its youth. Wunderkind Jackson Chourio held his own as a 20-year-old last season and has plenty of room to improve, much like his young cohorts Brice Turang and Sal Frelick, all of whom are held together by glue guy William Contreras. This is an offense who does many of the small things well, and they will need a repeat performance of that to avoid any significant slumps.
The rotation presents a much taller task, as the Brewers are relying on an almost all-new cast of pitchers to lead the way. Holdover Freddy Peralta is the clear ace of the staff, and he is now joined by three southpaws who recently became part of the team. Nestor Cortes should have a massive chip on his shoulder, but his production is far from guaranteed. The same can be said for Jose Quintana, who appeared destined to re-up with the Mets and instead will be the elder statesman in Milwaukee. Tyler Alexander is set to eat some innings as the team hopes Brandon Woodruff can return at some point in 2025. The departure of Williams also deprived the team from having a proven closer, but manager Pat Murphy showed he is more than capable of handling a bullpen.
If anything, the Brewers appear to have a high floor despite their roster churn, making the 81-81 projection a bit conservative. Despite the lack of star power, this is a team that appears constructed to avoid long losing streaks or produce many blowout games, instead relying on consistency and high-IQ baseball to win more often than not. While the road back to 93 wins looks improbable, it would not be surprising at all to see them as repeat division champs.
#1 – Chicago Cubs – 2024 Record: 83-79 – 2025 Projection: 82-80
Having waxed poetic about Milwaukee’s preternatural ability to squeeze the most out of a limited roster, it is strange to think that the Cubs now employ the manager who became famous for that. However, Craig Counsell’s debut season in Chicago left a lot to be desired, especially as the roster often produced less than the sum of its parts. As year two of the Counsell experience is set to hit the Friendly Confines, it is fair to wonder if the Cubs have actually gotten better and should be considered as the favorite to win the Central.
The addition of Kyle Tucker via trade was a major coup for this franchise, as Tucker is a true star who will be seeking a massive free-agent payday. Fellow standout Dansby Swanson and the emergence of Pete Crow-Armstrong give Chicago a solid core to build around, except the offense is set to feature a number of question marks. That same issue has plagued this franchise ever since its championship core evaporated, as the front office has been reluctant to spend the amounts of money a big-market team should.
That lack of imagination and planning are evident with the thin bench and middling pitching staff that complement this roster. If any of the aforementioned star players succumb to injury or ineffectiveness, the Cubs have few answers or contingency plans. Shota Imanaga was impressive in his debut season, but he will now be subject to a full year of scouting, while Justin Steele appears to be the only other starter with high upside. Even in a soft division without many top-tier arms, it is highly questionable to rely on the likes Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd to win consistently.
Of course, the Cubs have the resources and may be pressured to add talent in-season, especially if they can hang around the top of the standings. Even if they manage to outshine Milwaukee and Cincinnati en route to their first full-season playoff berth since 2018, it is likely that Chicago would be exposed against superior NL teams. If Tucker can channel his MVP-type production and Imanaga/Steele emerge as a force atop the rotation, the Cubs could surprise a few people, but their lack of depth and versatility may be too much to overcome.
