Can you feel it? The stretch run is upon us. If you’re in a roto league, chances are you’re scratching and clawing to gain ground in the all-important saves category. The same goes in real life, with clubs switching hands amidst tight playoff races. The key is trying to guess right. This week, we’ll survey some bullpens in flux and use PLV to help grade new and potential closer candidates.
If you’re new to PLV, you can find Nick’s primer here.
Note: Stats and PLV data are current through Monday, August 19th.
5.68 PLV | 762 Pitches
Last week, the best pitcher reliever in baseball recorded four consecutive saves. You don’t need me or PLV to tell you he’s awesome but let’s start by acknowledging one of the most dominant pitching performances we’ve seen this side of Jacob deGrom. What Clase is doing right now is remarkable; his 0.63 ERA and 0.66 WHIP speak for themselves. But in case you were wondering, Clase is number one in PLV at 5.68 (min. 500 pitches).
Griffin Jax is second at 5.60. PLVs are typically condensed, in which case the .08 gap between Clase and Jax serves as another way to illustrate the former’s brilliance; not that you needed it, I mean, my goodness a 0.63 ERA. I’d say he’s got an outside shot at winning his second Mariano Rivera Award. Sure, there are about six weeks to go, but the real question is, can he win the Cy Young Award? It’s a fun debate. Dennis Eckersley was the last AL Cy Young winner out of the bullpen 32 years ago. And just for fun, here’s a visualization of Clase tormenting hitters.
5.25 PLV | 807 Pitches
The playoff race can create new opportunities for new or sometimes not-so-new faces. Enter Seranthony Domínguez, who debuted in May 2018 and looked like one of baseball’s next big relievers, bagging 14 holds and 16 saves for the Phils. But then he got hurt and has struggled to recapture that form. Six years later, he’s in Baltimore after a mid-season swap. This past Monday, O’s skipper Brandon Hyde named Domínguez his main closer the rest of the way. Sure enough, that same day, after previously converting three saves, he coughed up the game-winner to Mets backstop Francisco Alvarez.
Domínguez’s slider and sinker profile well. However, his four-seamer command looks suspect (94 plvLoc+; 100 is average). Of course, he’s the guy and you go after it, but with the O’s in a tight race with the Yankees for the AL East, he might not be afforded a long leash.
However, the alternatives in the O’s pen aren’t great. Craig Kimbrel has fallen off a cliff after losing nearly two ticks on his fastball, a pitch he never really located well to begin with. Domínguez could very well keep the closer role the rest of the way, but if he falters, Yennier Cano (5.60 PLV | 826 pitches) might be worth putting on your watch list; he’s saved five games this year and his outstanding changeup has him tied with Griffin Jax for second in PLV among all P with 500 pitches minimum.
5.24 PLV | 860 Pitches
The Yankees nearly scraped a 1-0 win against the Tigers and Tarik Skubal this past Sunday night in the Little League game at Williamsport, PA. But alas, Holmes couldn’t convert. The tight race with the O’s for the AL East combined with Holmes’ 10th blown save might have him on the hot seat.
PLV generally isn’t a huge fan of sinkers, so the middling grade on the righty’s go-to pitch isn’t too concerning. And actually, PLV likes his sinker more this year compared to last season (4.66 PLV) thanks, in part, to a small bump in velocity. The same goes for his slider and sweeper. His slider, in particular, has looked noticeably better (4.95 PLV last year) thanks to improved command (107 PlvLoc+).
Relievers are notoriously volatile and Holmes could be a textbook example, especially as a sinkerballer. You know how it goes. Sometimes the worm burners just find the holes in the infield. This year, his sinker totes a .381 BABIP, a lofty mark compared to last season’s .307. PLV’s ‘hit luck‘ is another way to look at it. Holmes’ sinker has earned a +14 this year, i.e. 14 more hits than PLV would’ve predicted. In other words, Holmes might’ve been the victim of some unfortunate flukiness.
I’m guessing that Holmes will keep the role given his solid pitch quality metrics. But perhaps more importantly, the Yankees, like the O’s, lack a clear alternative. Luke Weaver has been one of their most effective relievers this year, but his 5.03 PLV (1,076 pitches) is around league average.
Tommy Kahnle has been successful too, but his 4.93 PLV (542 pitches) is a little suspicious.
Jake Cousins (5.20 PLV | 410 pitches), whom the Yankees acquired from the White Sox for cash in March, earned a save last Tuesday and might be worth keeping tabs on if Holmes keeps running into mayhem.
5.33 PLV | 694 Pitches
James McArthur’s struggles prompted the Royals to trade for Hunter Harvey (5.18 PLV | 918 pitches) and Lucas Erceg. However, a back injury has sent the former to the IL, leaving Erceg, who recorded a four-out save on 8/14. Erceg’s four-seamer isn’t anything to write home about, but remember when I said PLV isn’t generally a fan of sinkers? Erceg is quite the exception; his sinker’s 5.70 PLV is in the 95th percentile among RP.
5.44 PLV | 916 Pitches
Kopech recorded his second save with the Dodgers on the 18th, in a 2-1 win over the Cards. However, Dave Roberts will shelf him for a few days after noticing a dip in his velocity. His velocity is critical to his success as he doesn’t have much in his arsenal behind his high-octane heater (95th percentile PLV among RP) so we should keep a close eye on his velocity in his next appearance.
Kopech’s rest set the stage for Evan Phillips (5.48 PLV | 674 pitches) to record his 16th save. Phillips lulled a bit in the middle of the season, but he’s clicking again and has shown exceptional pitch quality; he’s ninth in PLV among pitchers with at least 500 pitches. His sweeper is dynamite. Edit: And I forgot to mention Phillips has also shown exceptional fastball command (109 PlvLoc+). Based on what we’ve seen, he’d be my pick in the Dodgers pen the rest of the way.
Daniel Hudson (5.14 PLV | 803) recorded his ninth save on 8/12 and tenth on 8/20. From a pitch quality perspective, he ranks a distant third; his slider is above average (5.23 PLV) but nowhere near the level of Phillips’ sweeper.
And, hey, how about Alex Vesia (5.47 PLV | 839 pitches)? He last recorded a save on July 6th, so he’s not an option outside of holds leagues, but the lefty has been nothing short of a stud. His heater’s 5.60 PLV is in the 98th percentile among RP thanks to its induced vertical break (19.7″ | 100th percentile).
5.36 PLV | 440 Pitches
Pete Fairbanks‘ injured lat has many fantasy managers playing Rays roulette. I know what you’re thinking. Oh, joy. Yes, there’s a pretty good chance this ends up being a committee with the likes of lefty Colin Poche (4.99 PLV | 470 pitches), who has nabbed two saves, poaching opportunities here and there.
Garrett Cleavinger (5.19 PLV | 835 pitches) is another Rays left-hander who has closed three games. Manuel Rodríguez (4.98 PLV | 384 pitches) has pitched well albeit in a short sample. I’m sure I’m forgetting someone. Hey, maybe the Rays call up Hunter Bigge, whom they acquired from the Cubs in the Isaac Paredes deal.
However, the fun name to take a chance on might be right-hander Edwin Uceta. He has a sinker that has a unique ability to get whiffs (95th percentile SwStr%) thanks to a 99th percentile Height-Adjusted Vertical Approach Angle and 93rd percentile iVB. Uceta’s change is interesting too, boasting 92nd percentile arm-side break.
5.16 PLV | 851 Pitches
The Tanner Scott and A.J. Puk trades left us guessing who might close out games in Miami. Lefty Andrew Nardi (5.41 PLV | 874 pitches) seemed like an interesting gamble, given his impressive metrics and strikeout upside. Anthony Bender (5.39 PLV | 802 Pitches) might’ve been another option; he’s shown good metrics despite middling results and saved six games two years ago before being shelved with TJ.
However, the Marlins have gone with Faucher, who picked up his third save this past Sunday. Faucher’s top pitch is the cutter (5.59 PLV), which has flashed good glove-side break (81st percentile). Still, Faucher’s 14.2% K-BB is far from ideal, so I wouldn’t be too surprised to see Nardi get an opportunity at some point.
4.95 PLV | 463 pitches
Joyce hasn’t quite hit the benchmark we’re looking for (500 pitches), but sometimes we have to cut corners a little. The 23-year-old righty recorded his second save last week. Joyce’s heater averages a ridiculous 102 mph with a 98th percentile height-adjusted approach angle and 90th percentile arm-side break.
However, his 11.8% BB rate tells you all you need to know; he’s a work in progress. Despite exceptional characteristics, Joyce’s heater is being dragged down by poor command (88 PlvLoc+). His slider just isn’t there (4.84 PLV) yet so he’s all gas no break right now. There will probably be some blowup outings but with the Angels playing out the string, it makes sense to let him learn on the job as their future bullpen ace.
I’ll admit, I really want to ignore Hunter Strickland (5.21 PLV | 899 pitches) and we probably should, but his slider has flashed 95th percentile glove-side break, so there’s that at least.
5.06 PLV | 450 Pitches
Porter Hodge converted his first save opportunity Tuesday, following the Cubs releasing Héctor Neris. He’s flashed an impressive 31.0% K rate, but the Hodge heater looks pretty shaky mostly because of poor locations (88 PlvLoc+). He’ll likely have to succeed on the back of his sweeper, which has shown a good amount of horizontal break (77th percentile) while earning a 5.62 PLV. But, he’s only thrown 450 pitches, so the sample size is a little sketchy.
Jorge López is the other name in the Cubs pen. He earned a save on 8/17 and isn’t all that different from two years ago when he blocked Jhoan Duran from saves in Minnesota before being shipped to Baltimore. His curveball (5.25 PLV) remains his best pitch while his 21.4% K rate will leave him susceptible to BABIP compared to the prototypical high-leverage reliever.
*Note: Hodge and López were late additions Wed. night (8/21). All other stats are accurate through Monday, 8/19 as previously noted.
Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire | Featured Image by Ethan Kaplan (@DJFreddie10 on Twitter and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)
Vesia velo drop over last month or so is pretty scary. What is PLV over that time?
Any love for Justin Martinez in ARZ?