A better understanding of player performance can give you an edge in fantasy, and that’s where PLV comes in handy by assessing hitters’ contact ability, swing decisions, and power on the per-pitch level. Stats like OPS and batting average are great, but they’re only a piece of the puzzle. In the end, results may vary, and PLV adds valuable context by measuring runs created per average over any situation, ie per pitch.
If you’re new to PLV, you can find Nick’s primer here. All the metrics are normalized to 100. Decision Value (DV) has been broken down this season into zDV (inside the strike zone) and oDV (outside the strike zone).
Last week, Kyle Bland unveiled Process+, a new, all-encompassing metric for hitters. For a comprehensive review of Process+, read Nate Schwartz’s article from last week.
To summarize: Process + is basically expected wRC+ on the per-pitch level utilizing swing decisions, contact ability, and power. And it’s normalized to 100, with Process+ values being generally closer to 100 than wRC+.
Another note: As you might’ve guessed, Power has the biggest impact on Process+ but it’s also the most volatile component.
But again, Nate’s article explains it far better than I can, plus it’s a great read, so you should check it out. Here it is again.
Also, if you’re interested in doing your own research with Process+ it’s one of the premium fantasy tools available to PL Pro Subscribers.
This week, we’ll peek at a few hitters who have been making noise and see what Process+ tells us.
Note: Stats and PLV data are current through Monday, August 12th.
It’s been another rough season in Miami. However, Burger has been a bright spot lately with a blistering 1.197 OPS over the last 30 days (23 games). That’s fourth behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Aaron Judge, and Bobby Witt Jr.
One takeaway from Nate’s article is that players can have a good Process+ score without thriving in all three components (contact, power, and decisions). And actually, very few hitters do. Nate illustrates Mark Vientos and Xavier Edwards as two hitters with similar Process+ scores but they each do it differently. With that in mind, let’s look at Burger.
When I think of Burger, I think of a hitter with shaky contact ability, but that’s not accurate; he’s right around league-average in contact ability (101). Burger swings at a lot of pitches he’d be better laying off of (71 DV), so this probably won’t last. On that note, we saw the other side of the spectrum earlier in the year. Still, he is adding a ton of power right now that he didn’t show earlier.
Sure enough, Burger went yard again last night on a 3-2, 92 mph meatball from Taijuan Walker. Speaking of walks, when will teams start, you know, walking him?
We’ve got a fairly decent sample size (575 pitches faced) for one of the most exciting rookies in baseball. Wood’s contact ability (80) is a little concerning. However, a 91st percentile chase rate has buoyed his overall Decision Value (100) and outlook.
The biggest area for improvement is his swing decisions inside the zone (60 zDV). Part of the problem might be that he’s letting too many hittable pitches go by (-9.6 % swing aggression) resulting in negative counts. I’d be interested in seeing him swing more often.
He’s also currently running a .383 BABIP (99th percentile). That will probably fall some, but perhaps not that much. First, he’s hitting the ball hard (74.3 mph swing speed) and he’s shown a low pull rate (30.6%, bottom 4th percentile) with a very high groundball rate (100th percentile). Those last two won’t help his home run totals (all four have been to the opposite field), but they should prop up his BABIP. Despite all the worm burners, he’s shown great power (125; 75 BBE) thanks to a 100th percentile FB EV. He reminds me of bizarro world Isaac Paredes. Does that make sense? No? Carry on then.
Fitzgerald has been a cog for the Giants, compiling a 1.150 OPS over the last 30 days (23 games). The righty’s contact ability has fluctuated from the bottom tenth to the 25th percentile, but his power is legit (118; 104 BBE).
Let’s jump to the man on the cover, Brandon Lowe. He has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball lately, but he’s only about 50% rostered on Yahoo. Granted, there are many inactive leagues, especially this time of year. I get it. Still, it feels as if his hot stretch is falling on deaf ears perhaps because the Rays are platoon-happy and Lowe’s injuries over the years.
Regardless, he’s doing a lot of good things. Of note: we’ve seen his recent surge correlate with a big rise in his contact ability from the bottom tenth percentile to over the league average.
I’ve been a not-so-secret admirer of the Giants’ new closer on Nastiest Pitches. Walker’s crossfire delivery and his slider’s 95th percentile horizontal break have made him an exceptionally fun pitcher to GIF and equally awful for hitters. His slider rates well (5.59 PLV, 79th percentile among RP), but middling velocity and some non-competitive locations have dragged its score down a touch.
Walker’s sinker doesn’t grade all that well as a whole (5.03 PLV, 40th percentile among RP). However, it’s an interesting pitch in its ability to generate called strikes at a 31.9% clip (81st percentile).
Torey Lovullo hasn’t gone out of his way to say that he has a new closer. However, Martinez has converted the last three opportunities. His sinker (5.42 PLV, 87th percentile among RP) and splitter (5.56 PLV, 87th percentile) give him a spicy 1-2 punch that looks an awful lot like closer material if you ask me. Like Walker’s slider, Martinez’s splitter is fun to watch as Ben Brown spotted in last Sunday’s Nastiest Pitches.
Things are getting testy in Yankee land following a brutal 12-2 loss to the White Sox. The blowout also featured a, uh, well, rough-looking bunt attempt from Alex Verdugo. Unlike the previously mentioned batters, the former Red Sox has been trending in the wrong direction for a while now, matching the lackluster results. Verdugo makes a lot of contact, but his dwindling power makes him awfully hard to justify as a leadoff hitter.
The 23-year-old shortstop has made the Angels look smart for drafting him 13th overall out of Campbell two summers ago. He’s shown an intriguing combination of above-average contact ability and power for most of the season, and I’m already wondering about his ADP for next year. His being on a rough-looking Angels team could make him slip under the radar. But that might be wishful thinking.
Photo by Mark LoMoglio/Icon Sportswire | Featured Image by Ethan Kaplan (@DJFreddie10 on Twitter and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)