With the 2021 season, I’m changing how I’m doing my starting pitcher streamers and daily matchup rankings
Instead of being featured in the SP Roundup, I’ll be highlighting my SP streamer picks for today and tomorrow inside this article, while also introducing four tiers and adding notes to each table.
The four tiers are as follows:
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.
Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results through the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, I have highlighted in Green my streaming pick of the day – Yellow if I wouldn’t actually want to stream them (I have to pick one every day!). These are defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
2021 Streamer Record: 48-35
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- We have some fun names in the top tier for Saturday and I’m not talking about Jacob deGrom and Lance Lynn. No, we’re seeing Adam Wainwright get the Pirates and those that roster him know he can go 7+ against the weak offense. Let’s just hope the cutter is on point.
- Kyle Gibson also gets the nod in the top tier as the man simply can’t be stopped. The Royals make it an easier pill to swallow as well.
- I debated Luis Castillo a bit and in the end, while I’m still waiting for his changeup to have that game, he’s certainly done enough to warrant the start with 98 mph heaters and surviving the Padres.
- Ian Anderson may bring some hesitation as well as he heads to the bandbox that is Cincy. His stuff is good enough to grind out quality innings and it’s hard to deny the opportunity.
- In the second tier, JT Brubaker (aka Coffee Cakes) gets the Cardinals and it’s full steam ahead. Brubaker has proven himself a steady arm when facing non-elite offenses and his slider should make good work of the St. Louis lineup.
- Former aces Kenta Maeda and Patrick Corbin have each seemingly taken steps forward as of late and have been gifted a wonderful matchup over the weekend. It’s the perfect launching pad for them to reclaim their lost abilities.
- It gets messy per usual in the third tier as Frankie Montas is fresh off a disaster against the Rangers. We saw a dramatic dip in spin rates, making us wonder if Montas can be the steady rock we need him to be without the sticky stuff.
- Alex Cobb is the streaming pick of the day as we wish for his splitter to be on point + he’s able to get ahead with taken curveballs in the zone. There are many better options for Sunday (Sandoval, Stripling, Odorizzi, etc.) but Cobb is the best choice if you’re searching for something a day early.
- It’ll be a major test for Casey Mize as he enters the ring against the mighty Houston offense, now with a healthy Kyle Tucker. He’s done well with his slider/fastball combo as of late and let’s see if he can make it happen.
- I’d much rather put Alex Wood higher in the ranks, but he hasn’t had his slider for a couple weeks now. Without that sweeper, Wood just doesn’t bring enough to the table.
- Don’t overlook Zach Thompson if the Marlins confirm him as a starter. It’s a deep option, but his cutter has caused fits and he could grind 5/6 frames against a middling Nationals squad.
- Then there’s the polarizing Adrian Houser who has been treated to a date with Rockie Road in Milwaukee. Houser has had bouts of success when his curveball has supported his heater, though it’s tough to predict when that will happen.
- In the “Do Not Start” column, we begin with Kris Bubic, who looked as good as I’ve ever seen him against the Yankees…but it was across just 21 pitches. It’s unclear how long he’s able to go in this one – which isn’t 100% confirmed yet. I’ll have my eye on him, though.
- Merrill Kelly has been intriguing as of late, pushing 92/93 mph velocity instead of the 90/91 we’ve seen at times. It’s the Padres, but there’s a chance of production here.
Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- Sunday comes with a ton of options for your fantasy teams, but first are the clear plays you should be making everywhere. Yes, I’m putting Gerrit Cole third – the Red Sox are plenty steps better than the Marlins or Sneks and Cole isn’t pitching as dominant without the Spider Tack
- The only tough matchup is Tyler Mahle against Atlanta, and he’s proven himself worthy this year to get the full green light.
- The second tier kicks off with Zac Gallen as he squares off against the Padres. I can imagine some pushback here, but Gallen is getting more stretched out and has brought increased velocity in his return. He’s beginning to look like the Top 15 ace we expected in March.
- A trio of my favorites follow, including Patrick Sandoval, who I’m shocked I get to call the streaming pick of the day. His changeup and slider are simply too good to pass up on Sunday.
- The third tier is a little larger than usual as I can grasp some of the bottom options as desperate plays for a Sunday. Tarik Skubal leads the pack as he’d normally be in a tier above, but we can’t ignore the danger that is Houston.
- Sammy Long is the backup streaming option as his curveball returned 42% CSW last time out. It’s a fantastic pitch and as Long gets more innings, he could turn into a decent option through the year.
- J.A.Happ is as boring as they come, but Cleveland does little to instill fear. There could be value here.
- It’s hard placing Adbert Alzolay, who has only had one start to get back in rhythm from his blister injury and has to face the Dodgers.
- The bottom of the tier gets dicey, but even Eric Lauer has a chance for success as he hosts Rockie Road. We’ve seen him have success before, he can do it again.
- And why not, maybe Tyler Anderson has one of those miracle outings as well, working changeups and cutters against a middling Cardinals squad.
- The final tier is nothing to write home about. I am curious about the long term prospects of Kyle Muller, but he’s on a low pitch count and faces a solid offense in Cincy. I wouldn’t chance this.
- It’s hard not to consider Triston McKenzie as a true Hail Mary play, I just think the odds are too low for this to pan out in your favor.
Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire | Design by Quincey Dong (@threerundong on Twitter)