Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Wednesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Seth Lugo (KCR) @ DET (ND) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 92 pitches.
Hey, have you noticed how Seth Lugo holds a 1.48 ERA and 0.99 WHIP through his fourth game of the season? That includes Wednesday’s excellence against the Tigers via 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 92 pitches (ND) and now he’ll get the Orioles, Angels, and @TEA. In short, Vargas Rule this. In length, well, read on.
Lugo was a stellar arm in 2024, we didn’t buy it, then he was fantastic for a half a season in 2025 until his back acted up and ruined his second half. It makes all the sense that Lugo would be better now given he’s had ample rest over the off-season. So why was he so underdrafted and ranked low by you? Well, because of a few warning signs from last year’s first half that are still present.
You may know Lugo as the guy with a ton of pitches, though he’s routinely leaned heavily on his curveball (and its slight variations), while mixing whatever he could against LHB and RHB to get back to the high CSW offering. That’s no different here—curveballs returned a 53% CSW and sinkers, four-seamers, sliders, and cutters all appeared against both lefties and righties. However, those fastballs are highly suspect and have continued to decline since 2024, while the curveball’s velocity has also fallen a bit in the process (even removing the slow curves from the equation).
That doesn’t mean he’s destined to fail. If Lugo can command his wide arsenal well as he did here (he landed around the edges and spread out his usage effectively), I’m game. This could end as soon as his next outing, but I’m cool with giving it a whirl and hoping this lasts for a while.
Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:
Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) vs WSN (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 81 pitches.
He was opened for and did more than just vulture a Win. We all blinked and he completed six frames in just 81 pitches. The splitter. That’s the answer you’re looking for. It obliterated the Nationals’ LHB with a 65% strike rate and 6/6 outs in play at 48% usage. Now in Texas for his next start, I’m okay with it. You know how much I don’t like trusting splitters start-to-start, but maybe the feel sticks around.
Dylan Cease (TOR) @ MIL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 106 pitches.
It sure is nice when Cease gives you a productive outing, isn’t it? You start to believe it’ll always be this way. This is it. I know how silly it is to hope, but I’ll never stop.
Bryce Elder (ATL) vs MIA (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 79 pitches.
Ayyyy an easier matchup for Elder with more RHB involved, though he allowed three of his four hits to them, while he easily took down LHB with sliders and four-seamers, if you can believe it. Yeah, me neither. I’m not down for the LHB-heavy Nationals up next, sorry. It’s PHI + Coors after, so you’re not missing much after, either.
Jesse Scholtens (TB) @ CHW (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 77 pitches.
I didn’t know what to make of Scholtens and jeeeeeez I missed on this follower, too. Look, he throws super lofty sliders at 87 mph and a cut-fastball at 92 mph, which combined for just 5/67 whiffs, alright? But it’s the White Sox! Sure. I get it. And now it’s the Reds Carpet + Minnesota + Giants, all in the Trop. I know you’re tempted, but this is the ceiling. The floor is a wasted roster spot.
Chad Patrick (MIL) vs TOR (ND) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 81 pitches.
Whoa, after going three frames in his previous start, he kills it. That’s a Gold Star for you in the first outing I’ve seen at six frames, let alone into the seventh, and I’m shocked as this wasn’t a blowout, but a 1-0 game after a quick run on a walk, single, and sac fly in the first frame. I don’t adore the whole schtick, especially when the four-seamer and curveball go sub 50% strikes between them and it’s purely reliant on the 89/90 mph cutter that lands well over the plate to LHB. But then again, it went 16/17 strikes to RHB at 50% usage and returned seven whiffs. That’s hot. If you must start him against the Tigers, fine. I’m out.
Dustin May (STL) vs CLE (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 91 pitches.
I gotta say, two whiffs and four strikeouts is not something you normally see. This was a game of May nailing cutters inside and backdoor sweepers to 100% LHB, with four-seamers setting the tone in the upper half. This. Works. Well, against LHB. If he can do this and take advantage of RHB as he should with his sinker/sweeper, then we’re golden. Who better to test that out against the Marlins next time out?
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) vs COL (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 10 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 100 pitches.
ATTA BOY. It would normally be a Still ILL, but we have more data these days, and we saw 82 pitches + six frames in his final rehab outing. Did I expect 100 pitches here? Noooope. Did I expect a solid outing with whiffs given it was Rockie Road? Sure did. Pasta Pirate helped us eat last night. How? Well, the curveball was absurd. 38% usage and 42% SwStr rate for, uh, 16/38 whiffs and nine of those ten strikeouts. Absolutely BONKERS. He had such a good feel for it against LHB, but I have to preach caution. That curveball feel isn’t always there and he’ll get a slew of LHB against the Guardians next. He did walk four batters, after all (his heaters couldn’t find the zone).
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs NYM (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 22 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 95 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. This was a game of his four-seamer dominating with sweepers and curveballs failing to earn strikes, which isn’t how Ohtani normally succeeds, and who cares, this is dope. Hope you were able to snag him in your two-Ohtani leagues.
Jack Flaherty (DET) vs KCR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 97 pitches.
Ayyyyy, nicely done, Flaherty! It’s great to see the strikeouts come alive as he now holds a 24% strikeout rate for the year, with the slider and curve each earning a fair amount of whiffs, and the four-seamer sat 93/94, not the 92/93 we’ve seen thus far. The bad news? It’s Fenway + Cincy next and he had a sub 60% strike rate on his main three offerings. I don’t think it’s worthwhile chasing Flaherty.
Connelly Early (BOS) @ MIN (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 85 pitches.
Is it the most overpowering start? Nah. Is it the embodiment of Max Fried. YUP. That’s what we’re chasing from Early. You love to see it and I’m starting him against the Yankees.
Shota Imanaga (CHC) @ PHI (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks – 26 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 97 pitches.
IM. AN. AGA. Okay, yes. You are. Wait, really? Aces gonna ace. It’s hard to deny at this point with his heater at 92 mph and returning a Golden Goal with TWENTY-SIX WHIFFS. He even threw some sinkers in there. Feels good, doesn’t it?
Slade Cecconi (CLE) @ STL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 5 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 87 pitches.
If you can’t get it together in St. Louis, then you can’t trust Slade for HOU + @TOR + @ATH coming up.
Emerson Hancock (SEA) @ SDP (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 98 pitches.
The dude continues to dominate. He wasn’t touched until a two-run blast from Bogaerts in the sixth (Careful, Icarus) on a decent inside sinker and it goes to show how locked in Hancock is. Man, I COMPLETELY whiffed on this in the preseason, but then again, how was I supposed to believe he would be a completely different pitcher? I’m just glad to see it.
J.T. Ginn (ATH) vs TEX (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 78 pitches.
I want to believe in Ginn, but he’s not there yet. At least we’re near 80 pitches and he heads to @TEA + Arlington, but that’s only for deeper leagues. It’s Rhiskey Ginn. I don’t like this. Neither do I.
Jake Irvin (WSN) @ PIT (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 85 pitches.
If you were in a situation to start Irvin, that’s a Dusty Donut you’ll eat all day. No, I still don’t like the fella.
Clay Holmes (NYM) @ LAD (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 88 pitches.
This is awesome. I had my doubts it would be worthwhile against the Dodgers + the hamstring twinge that removed him in his previous start. Now he’ll host the Twins + Nationals and I’m game. But the Twins are better now. Maybe.
Chris Paddack (MIA) @ ATL (L) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 92 pitches.
It wasn’t a fun time in the second, and it racked up his pitch count too far to last the fifth once he allowed a baserunner. It’s too bad – this was a surprisingly good start with 93/94 mph velocity, not flirting with 93 mph. Not enough for me to start against the Cardinals, sadly.
Kumar Rocker (TEX) @ ATH (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 97 pitches.
Don’t. Please. Just don’t. He’s now throwing more sinkers than sliders (at least the four-seamer is gone) and I don’t like that 94 mph sinker at all.
Rhett Lowder (CIN) vs SFG (W) – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 90 pitches.
A slightly better PQS with a sub 1.00 WHIP and a dub? Atta boy, Lowder! That’s the streamer you’re supposed to be, not the poor command arm we saw last time out. @TBR is in play for his next start.
Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) @ NYY (ND) – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 97 pitches.
He’s still up at 96/97 mph with whiffable changeups and sliders, making him an arm to consider when the schedule goes his way. TOR, @KCR, NYM are ahead, and I’m not thrilled about it. That said, he recovered after a pair of poor opening frames and huge props for that against the Yankees.
Jose Quintana (COL) @ HOU (L) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 75 pitches.
Yeaaaaah, we don’t want to roster Quintana.
Kyle Bradish (BAL) vs ARI (ND) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 97 pitches.
He had trouble in the third on a “triple” that hit the outfielder’s glove, scoring two with two outs. The good news? He’s going over 60% breakers and they’re still dope. The weird news? Bradish sat 97 mph in the first, then fell down to 93-95 mph for the rest of the start. It was bonkers seeing him throw a 98.9 mph sinker in the first, but then fall to a trio of 92 mph heaters in the fifth. I wonder what that’s all about. Anyway, he’s been terrible early in the year, and yet, I’m buying low. I’m seeing the same lovely breakers from last season and velocity is obviously not a problem. He’ll be far better.
Sean Burke (CHW) vs TBR (L) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 92 pitches.
Womp womp. The four-seamer wasn’t 96 mph, but sub 94 mph with less vert and the secondaries let him down with 1/40 whiffs and terrible strike rates. We move on.
Luis Gil (NYY) vs LAA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 83 pitches.
52% changeup strikes and a poor fifth inning with a solo shot, strikeout, walk, and a two-run shot to lead things off. I’d continue to ignore Gil for a bit.
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) @ BAL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 98 pitches.
Annnnnd the Vargas Rule had come to an end. But it’s the White Sox next. Oh dear. Uhhhh, okay fine. He’s up to 92 mph, after all. ONE MORE.
Randy Vásquez (SDP) vs SEA (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 85 pitches.
Bleeeeegh. Vásquez’s fantastic 90/91 mph cutter returned 36% CSW…and 48% strikes. Adding to the pain was a horrible 21% strike rate on 14 changeups to LHB, where most of the damage came through. In other words, not his day. I don’t feel great about Coors + Cubs, but is that enough to drop him? Nah, not really. Pick your poison there, I imagine he does well for one of them. You’ll get the White Sox after the pair, don’t worry.
Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) vs BOS (L) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 10 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 92 pitches.
The good news? He’s up to 94 mph. The bad news? Waves hand across the screen. Simply put, his secondaries were too hittable and he didn’t get his heater upstairs. We’re still very much waiting for more.
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) vs CHC (L) – 5.1 IP, 8 ER, 12 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 98 pitches.
Uhhhhh, that’s three disasters of 5+ ER in four starts for Luzardo. Are we dropping him now? Well, that’s up to you. It should come as no surprise that I believe he’s better than this, though he certainly didn’t pitch well here, with terrible precision to RHB. How about you bench against the Cubs next and see how that goes? He’ll get the Giants and Marlins after. You have to imagine they’ll tweak something to get him back on track. After all, this doesn’t look like an injury (four-seamer was 98 mph).
Tyler Mahle (SFG) @ CIN (L) – 4.0 IP, 8 ER, 8 Hits, 5 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 89 pitches.
It’s too soon, experienced manager! We have one more against the Dodgers, then we’re coasting against the Marlins and Rays. Mahle’s four-seamer was up to 93 mph, hitting 94.5 mph…on the three-run shot that started the back-to-back HR bamboozling of the first frame. He didn’t get it upstairs, alright? It’s kinda great – managers in your league are unlikely to pick up Mahle after the Dodgers start given the results, but if the velocity is still up, we’re all in.
Game of the Day
Brandon Sproat vs. Toronto Blue Jays – Today’s. The. Day. So he says. Yeaaaah, I know. Sproat isn’t a lock or anything, just another chance for him to be the guy he should be. I’m not expecting it, just wishing it into existence.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire | Featured image by Ethan Kaplan (@djfreddie10.bsky.social on Bluesky and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)
