Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup 4/16: Spence You’ve Been Gone

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Wednesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.

Spencer Strider (ATL) @ TOR (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 97 pitches.

We’ve waited a year to see Strider return to the mound and after recording 21 strikeouts in his last two minor league rehab starts, it was difficult to hold back our excitement for his outing in Toronto. The result was…fine: 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 97 pitches (L). Strider struck out the side in the first and was looking strong with 96 mph four-seamers and a lovely slider underneath, but the velocity dip was real in the third inning, and the slider was not nearly as reliable a strike pitch as it was in the past. I’d even tell you Vlad Jr. saved his start by trying to steal second in the third, shortly after Strider featured a 93 mph heater to Santander. Not only did Strider get a far better situation, but the call was initially challenged, giving Strider much-needed rest, allowing him to sit 95 mph for the rest of the frame.

Yes, Vlad got him back in the sixth (Strider came back out in the sixth and allowed a solo shot + a walk. Careful, Icarus?), but boy did Strider not look 100% in that inning. And that’s really the problem I see here. This wasn’t Strider. His slider feel was wonky, and even if his fastball is still great at 94/95 mph, it’s not a dude sitting 97 mph and touching upper digits. It doesn’t mean he’s bad, it just makes things make sense when he had a lower velocity after the first frame and returned two strikeouts in four innings. Ohhhh.

He’ll get better, of course. More starts = better slider feel and likely more stamina as the season goes on. It may not be incredibly smooth for the next few weeks, though, and be prepared for that. If you’re able to sell high on the stat line, then I’d consider doing so. We haven’t seen old Strider yet and may not for a while.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:

 

Bailey Falter (PIT) vs WSN (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 83 pitches.

Well hot dang, look at you! A Gold Star for Falter, even against the Nationals, as his “sinker” had 18″ of iVB with 7.2 feet of extension at 91 mph, and he shoved the pitch middle up/mid/down (a whole lot of x-mLoc) all game for plenty of called strikes. I’m not sure if there is actually a difference between the four-seamer and sinker, but I can see those pitches working…if he had a great changeup underneath. The slider and curve? Meh. Maybe one day I can actually buy this. When he’s on the Rays…

Chris Bassitt (TOR) vs ATL (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 90 pitches.

We hung out inside the Playback stream for Strider’s season debut, but really it was to watch this masterclass from Bassitt. A King Cole on the back of a fantastic sinker and curve was a joy to watch, especially the cutter mixed in well to LHB on top of everything else. He’s looking as good as we’ve seen him in a while and y’all should be on board with him. I’m not saying he’s a stud, just a Holly inside the Top 60, if not Top 50.

Bryce Miller (SEA) @ CIN (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 78 pitches.

Ayyyy, Bryce killed it on the road! And went back to going sinkers over four-seamers against RHB, which makes zero sense to me! And he went 70%+ fastballs! This was called strikes over the plate all day, which the Reds should truly regret, given how hittable those 6/9 called strike sliders were. I’d be scared about Fenway up next, even with this one in the books.

Sean Newcomb (BOS) @ TBR (ND) – 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 71 pitches.

Yay, I’m happy for you, Sean. Sorry you couldn’t get one more out, but you produced for Boston. You likely have one start left before the injured arms return (if even that), so good luck fella. I hope this was a fun time.

Jonathan Cannon (CHW) vs ATH (ND) – 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 88 pitches.

It’s not quite enough for us to blast the 1812 Overture, and he really doesn’t have his command on point. There were so many belt-high pitches for batters to smash in this one that the Athletics failed to exploit. One day, the fuse will run out. I can hear its sizzle in the distance…That’s the concession stand’s fryer machine. Is it really that empty at home for White Sox games? I wish it weren’t true.

David Festa (MIN) vs NYM (ND) – 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 76 pitches.

For a guy with great extension and 19″ of vert at 94/95 mph, you’d think he’d be able to not go 0/28 whiffs on the four-seamer, right? At least the slider held a 42% CSW to steer the ship (11% on the four-seamer…), though it always feels like there’s something with Festa, something that doesn’t click and that he’s fighting against throughout his start. Generally, it’s his command, and that’s what making me hesitant to jump on board, unlike many other Frizzle types. That said, he gets the White Sox next, and that’s an easy play for a start + possible hint of something more.

Huascar Brazoban (NYM) @ MIN (ND) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 18 pitches.

He opened for the MLB debut of Justin Hagenman, who throws 92 mph sinkers + cutters over the plate and returned 3.1 IP of 1 ER and 4 Ks. Sooooo. Sooooo we don’t want this. Okay then.

Mitchell Parker (WSN) @ PIT (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 89 pitches.

I’ll squint and see a breakout season for Parker when he adds some velocity and commands the four-seamer a little better so it doesn’t leak low against RHB. In the meantime, let’s be happy he took advantage of a solid matchup against the Pirates. I’m not so confident he’ll do well against the Orioles, sadly.

Nick Pivetta (SDP) vs CHC (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 91 pitches.

Phew, I’m glad we can still roll out Pivetta comfortably. Fun news in this one: He threw more cutters than sweepers to RHB. Sure, they weren’t great, but mixing in something that isn’t the sweeper helps out the four-seamer and I’m all for this approach. We even saw some sinkers join the party as well, even if they weren’t spotted inside at all. I’m more inclined to keep rolling with Pivetta than usual with this expanded arsenal.

Zack Littell (TBR) vs BOS (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 90 pitches.

That’s a great rebound, Littell. We saw some Dancing With The Disco against LHB and a whole lot of splitters against RHB, which is all kinds of backwards, but it worked? Yay, I’m glad tonight was this Werewolf’s full moon.

Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) @ MIA (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 92 pitches.

Atta boy Pfaadt. The changeup and curve are still the game plan against LHB and to see the pair return outs is a lovely thing. And that HR? A good low 0-2 curveball hooked over the fence. So it goes, I’m in on Pfaadt now and it feels so liberating.

Jose Quintana (MIL) vs DET (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 100 pitches.

It’s fun seeing Quintana land sinkers, changeups, and curveballs down-and-away to RHB like the good ole days. But the curve had a 40% strike rate and the change went 2/23 whiffs. JUST LIKE THE GOOD OLE DAYS. Yes, despite the clear Koufax love, he still could make it work against the Giants up next.

Osvaldo Bido (ATH) @ CHW (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 83 pitches.

Look at this. The cheapest of cheap Wins without a single strikeout to his name. HAISTBMBWT?! You threw enough strikes and your slider wasn’t nearly as good as we’ve seen in the past. It adds up, and I’m looking at the calculator wondering why I spent so much time doing math. All that work for this?!

Patrick Corbin (TEX) vs LAA (W) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 85 pitches.

Oh cool, good job Corbin. I love how you actually have embraced the cutter after all that yelling I did last year. Only 28% fastballs, too! That’s fun. Still never going to start you in fantasy and that slider was horrible at a 47% strike rate but yaaaaaay.

Dean Kremer (BAL) vs CLE (W) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 96 pitches.

I guess this is one of the good nights. Why does Kremer feel like Michael Lorenzen all of a sudden?

Steven Matz (STL) vs HOU (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 71 pitches.

They said this was just to help give the rotation an extra day of rest, but when you produce like this against a RHB-exclusive lineup, surely you’re starting more, right? That doesn’t mean I want to roll with a pitcher who returned a 48% strike rate on 21 changeups and went 3/8 strikes on the curve, of course.

Matthew Boyd (CHC) @ SDP (L) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 97 pitches.

The line isn’t horrific or anything, but the command was far from what we normally see. I’m also shocked to see Boyd move from the slider to the curveball, and let’s be real – Boyd’s slider is what put him on the map. I’m not sure I can buy into this without that slide piece doing work, while this curve? 1/14 CSW. That can’t be the life he lives.

Max Meyer (MIA) vs ARI (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 90 pitches.

Here I was, preaching all this doom and gloom about Meyer and what does he do? Why, get back to throwing 96 mph four-seamers and 90 mph sliders, while having the best slider of his career to earn a Gallows Pole. 14/45 sliders is hilarious and the changeup was a welcome sight against LHB for 33% CSW across 31% usage. I’ll take this all day, don’t scare me like that again, Meyer. I’m willing to call his last one a blip after this. But it was a 4.50 ERA. Stop that, the skills are back to stellar.

Clarke Schmidt (NYY) vs KCR (ND) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 73 pitches.

He’s back! And travelled far deeper into this game than I expected, though 73 pitches is pretty on the nose. We saw a cutter/sweeper/curve approach that was alright but nothing special. I dunno, I’m not jumping over everyone to make sure I get Schmidt on my squads, especially since he’s not even fully stretched out yet. He’s a better 15-teamer play than 12-teamer, but sure, there’s a Toby in here.

José Soriano (LAA) @ TEX (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 89 pitches.

Ever wonder what a textbook Singled Out start looks like? It was just sinker/curve for the most part and a carousel of a second frame did him in. They just keep going around and around the base paths. So it goes, he’s the same guy.

Kris Bubic (KCR) @ NYY (ND) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 94 pitches.

Blegh. The four-seamer, sweeper, changeup approach to RHB was all over the place, while he couldn’t get the slider or sweeper down to LHB. And yet, he still earned 14 whiffs and a 35% CSW. If only the sweeper wasn’t his most thrown pitch and his worst thrown pitch. Okay, maybe that’s the changeup, which was featured just eight times and looked pretty terrible. I’m glad we get Rockie Road up next, the Ben and Jerry’s ice cream equivalent to help pitchers get over their frustrating outings.

Ronel Blanco (HOU) @ STL (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 88 pitches.

The curve is sticking around for LHB with the slider saved for RHB and I guess that’s okay? I’m sad to see the changeup go 0/6 CSW, though. Blanco cooking with changeups was the catalyst for his breakout last year. The slider has always been good, but that slowball made the difference. I don’t think this curve is as good, sadly. After all, he’s not buttering our bread with this approach. HAISTBMBWT?!

Nick Martinez (CIN) vs SEA (L) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 83 pitches.

Yikes. His command was terrible, so don’t blame GABP for this one. The changeup wasn’t even spotted well and still had a 47% CSW with 6/19 whiffs, but the four-seamer, sinker, and cutter were just not great. Can’t happen, NMart. Nart. NickMart. Fella. IT CAN’T HAPPEN.

Robbie Ray (SFG) @ PHI (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 5 BBs, 8 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 93 pitches.

He tried really hard to make the changeup work. And it wasn’t horrible, but it wasn’t nearly what we want it to be, while the four-seamer took on a bit too heavy of a role once again. It’s a little frustrating watching Ray at the moment as you know he can dominate if he just had the slider and changeup feel for RHB (and where’s the curve?). Sigh. The schedule gets easier now and I’m not batting an eye. Just keep starting him, he’ll get it together. He always does.

Gavin Williams (CLE) @ BAL (L) – 6.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 102 pitches.

Noooooo. The control was terrible. His slider held a putrid 44% strike rate, the curve was its traditional 50/50 self, and the four-seamer couldn’t hold the fort as it usually does. But he had a fourth pitch today! Wait, the cut–A changeup! Oh. He threw two changeups. And one was a strike! Please stop. Gavin, you see the problem. It’s right there in front of you. Why oh why are you not letting yourself throw the bridge cutter for strikes? YOUR ARSENAL NEEDS HELP. But fine, you allowed a grand slam and that was all of the damage until a solo shot in the seventh on your final pitch, but still. This wasn’t good. It can be fixed. Please fix it. And yes, I’m holding. He had a major off-night and will be far better.

Keider Montero (DET) @ MIL (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 85 pitches.

The slider was killer, the rest was not. That’s standard fare for Montero, who came up for a spot start to give the Tigers’ rotation an extra day of rest. We move on.

Aaron Nola (PHI) vs SFG (L) – 5.1 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 4 BBs, 8 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 99 pitches.

Oh no. The curve was bonkers at 49% CSW but the velocity is still down across the board and he’s starting to face the consequences. That said, it was a frustrating first inning that started his day with four runs and he settled down reasonably well, but the damage has been done. I’m not doing anything rash yet and I’m starting him against the Mets, but it really does feel like this isn’t going to be a fun year rostering Nola. Or Castillo. Or Gallen. Those lovely arms from the mid-to-late 2010’s who are getting replaced by all the young blood. I once was that blood. So young. So positive. You’re A negative. Nah, I’m the optimisic one, you’re the negative Nancy. I’m going home.

Bobby Miller (LAD) vs COL (ND) – 3.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 84 pitches.

You know, Bobby came out firing with five strikeouts in his first two frames. Then the third frame happened. A grand-slam on a two-strike curveball + a solo shot right after. Welcome back to the big leagues. The slider and changeup can’t be commanded, so we saw mostly sinkers, four-seamers, and curveballs, and to be completely honest, I think he looked pretty good…? That’s a lovely hook that mostly stayed down, but I’m likely underrating the impact of not having his slider for RHB. I wonder if the Dodgers keep him around for the next one and if they do, I’m not going for it. I’m going to watch closely and hope he’s doing all the right things again. I know it’s unlikely, I just want it to finally click and never look back.

Germán Márquez (COL) @ LAD (ND) – 0.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 16% CSW, 37 pitches.

This Germán was so bad, he’s being blamed for World War 1. That was a rocky moment for the Germáns.

 

Game of the Day

 

Will Warren vs. Taj Bradley – Is Warren still featuring the same flatter four-seamer? Can Taj actually find consistency?

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

Have Questions? – Join my morning Playback.tv livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.

Photos by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire and Bruno Cervera/Unsplash | Featured Image by Ethan Kaplan (@djfreddie10.bsky.social on Blue Sky and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)