Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Friday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Luis Gil (NYY) @ MIL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 97 pitches.
What are we doing with Luis Gil? It was a collection of disappointments before he dominated the Rays, giving us hope he was turning the corner, but from this vantage point, it appears to have been a Dennis. That is, after Friday’s 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 97 pitches against the Brewers. Ugggggh, so we’re dropping him, yeah? Maybe. Maybe not.
Fine, he gets the Orioles and Astros next, which likely outlines a drop for something else. HOWEVER, these poors ratios are unlike the others. Previously, we saw few strikes across the board, leading to inefficient days and frustrating at-bats. Here, he allowed a pair of homeruns that did most of the damage, while his changeup held an 80% strike rate. And his slider? Okay fine, that was a 50% rate, but his four-seamer returned 8/46 whiffs with a 67% strike rate and he lived heavily in the zone this time around. This should be good enough. Yes, it should.
What we’re seeing is development and what is development without failure? It means I expect Gil to level out over time across the year and become that stable strikeout producer with a fair number of Wins. Sadly, with his rough schedule across the next two weeks, he’s a bit too risky to roster. However, if you’re in a deeper format or have few options available, feel free to hold and see what happens. He’s a Cherry Bomb at best now with legit potential to become much more than that.
Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:
Seth Lugo (KCR) @ DET (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 103 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! Blame it on the Tigers. Yeah, a bit, and that King Cole was certainly aided by them. That said, his breakers were fantastic, and he maneuvered his heaters around the zone well, too. It’s not just the opponent – you have to have the ability to take full advantage. I hope I can label Lugo as a Holly moving forward, though you should remember Lugo had just 14 strikeouts across his five previous games total. Yeah.
Kyle Harrison (SFG) vs PIT (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 93 pitches.
See Nick? He’s actually good! Yeah this was a super weird one and I think I’m cool with it? It was curves and changeups well inside the zone, while his four-seamer landed up-and-armside the entire start. Essentially, it tunneled with the curve, while the changeup looked like an erratic heater before floating over the plate. This has Cherry Bomb written all over it with Fenway up next.
Quinn Priester (PIT) @ SFG (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 84 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! Quinn was able to throw a ton of strikes, spot his slider, and get through a pedestrian lineup. Does this mean we can stream him against the Athletics? At least he’s expressed that it could work now? Sadly, I think his name is closer to Quoss than Quinn. I don’t ge–HE’S NOT A HIGH WIN CHANCE.
Chris Flexen (CHW) vs TBR (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 72 pitches.
Seriously? Flexen is the lucky one to get a Win on the CrySox? FLEXEN. AT. THE. BEACH.
Anthony Maldonado (MIA) vs WSN (ND) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 36 pitches.
A lovely bullpen game where the Marlins were fortunate to get three innings on sub 40 pitches. This is what the fans came here to see.
Gavin Stone (LAD) @ TOR (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 94 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! Stone gave you a Win like you envisioned back in March, but with just two strikeouts, four whiffs, and 21% CSW? That…doesn’t seem sustainable. I’d leave him on the wire with Atlanta up next. This isn’t breakout-city.
Reese Olson (DET) vs KCR (L) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 100 pitches.
Yesssss. The slider and changeup were cooking here, while the sinker earned all the outs + his four-seamer was able to sneak in for strikes. THIS IS THE MAN HE’S SUPPOSED TO BE. Keep riding this against the Cards.
Chris Sale (ATL) vs CLE (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 95 pitches.
This is lovely and yet all I can think about is how good he could be if his changeup were back to its old ways. Just five slowballs in total here and I sincerely hope the Mariners squeeze it out of him. Seattle hates seeing changeups, after all. Is that true? I think so? Anecdotally, I recall massive whiff games from changeups against them. JUST BRING IT, SALE.
Shota Imanaga (CHC) @ BOS (W) – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 88 pitches.
IM. AN. AGA. Seriously, Aces Gonna Ace. I can’t deny it any longer given his electric start to the year and how few reliable starters there are. His four-seamer precision upstairs is bonkers and his splitter was a major player once again in a tough environment inside Fenway. I still can’t believe the Cubs got such a deal when they signed him this off-season.
Graham Ashcraft (CIN) @ TEX (ND) – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 89 pitches.
This is such an Ashcraft line of “oh cool, they couldn’t wrangle my cutter like a buttery calf.” I’m pretty sure that’s what the post-game quote was, I may be paraphrasing a touch. It was a rare day of his cutter landing around the edges instead of the center of the zone and let’s all be happy for Ashcraft and his Grave Mistake.
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) vs CIN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 5 BBs, 8 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 97 pitches.
Five walks are obtuse and annoying as Eovaldi’s velocity is slipping a touch to 94.7 mph. Pray I don’t lower it further…Thankful it’s the Nats left and you need not think about this any longer.
Emerson Hancock (SEA) vs ARI (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 83 pitches.
Huh. Hancock hurled plenty of four-seamers in the upper half here, which I’m not sure is the right gameplan given its overall mediocrity. But it worked! Yeah, it’s weird, right? Anyway, he gets Atlanta next and that’s such an easy pass so let’s move on.
Corbin Burnes (BAL) vs OAK (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 97 pitches.
Aces gonna ace and give us a Gallows Pole. I know we want more than a strikeout-per-inning and we certainly want a Win, but obviously you should be happy here.
Trevor Williams (WSN) @ MIA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 80 pitches.
#NeverTrevor. Even in a pristine matchup, he still serves you a HAISTBMBWT?!
Bailey Ober (MIN) @ LAA (W) – 7.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 96 pitches.
Ober’s changeup woke up with 10/25 whiffs, though I have to mention how his four-seamer command isn’t quite as bliss as the majority of 2023. That new cutter/slider is helping massively and making us overlook it.
Miles Mikolas (STL) @ NYM (W) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 85 pitches.
We’ll take this all day from Mikolas, even if it came with a Philly. Thanks Miles, now you’ve started six games: half at 2 ER, half at 5 ER. MAKE UP YOUR MIND. Also, it’s interesting to see him go back to a fastball focus – here at 56% sinkers and four-seamers. Sorry, did I say interesting? I meant ancient. There’s a new school in town, bucko. And it’s got better bricks than yours. I don’t know what that means, but it’s something, alright. Be careful of those bricks…?
Ross Stripling (OAK) @ BAL (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 97 pitches.
Hey, a Philly against a strong Baltimore crew is fantastic. Does that mean we should stream him against the Pirates? Well, this was a BSB with four-seamers and sliders and that could be enough for the Pirates, though he did go 7/14 changeup whiffs despite lofting the pitch a ton and I can’t quite believe he’ll be able to replicate those results. I’d personally pass, even if we’ve seen Stripling go on runs in the past.
Aaron Nola (PHI) @ SDP (W) – 8.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 106 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Yes, the four-seamer is in fact getting elevated properly. The rest of his stuff is a little too much over the plate still, but those who pursued Nola are being heavily rewarded this year, especially after earning 26 strikeouts across his last three starts. How many did he collect in his first three? …ten. WHAT. WE’RE BACK BAYBEEEE.
Kutter Crawford (BOS) vs CHC (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 85 pitches.
Blegh. I don’t want a VVPQS for Crawford, who continued his notorious struggles home in Fenway. Just 2/29 four-seamer whiffs are part of the problem, though all of his stuff outside his kutter weren’t dependable here. He should be far better against the Giants next, even if he’s hosting once again. I’ll put out the nice napkins this time. How considerate.
Patrick Sandoval (LAA) vs MIN (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 99 pitches.
All of his breakers were down ze pipe and that ain’t it…even if he went just 13% fastballs. That’s kinda cool. Only if your secondaries aren’t super easy to hit. And sure, he was an out away from a VPQS and maybe it displays The Irish Panda as a possible Toby when he locates his breakers and changeups, but haven’t we been waiting for him to do that for years?
Zac Gallen (ARI) @ SEA (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 64 pitches.
He left this one early with hamstring tightness and LIFE IS DUMB. That’s 12 of my initial Top 31 now on the IL (I’m assuming Gallen is now) and I’m not sure that number gets better before it gets worse. Hold me.
Zach Eflin (TBR) @ CHW (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 90 pitches.
Blegh. Dude. The CrySox. EFLIN, PLEASE. Honestly, he threw too many hittable pitches and sometimes, baseball happens. Whatareyadgonnado.
José Buttó (NYM) vs STL (L) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 94 pitches.
Annnnnnd this Vargas Rule should come to a close now, even if he did earn 15 whiffs. The Cubs are a little tougher (even without Bellinger and Suzuki) and I’d be careful. It all seems too precarious. This came mostly from one inning! Yeaaaaah, he’ll be at the bottom of Questionable, okay? Fair.
Logan Allen (CLE) @ ATL (L) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 91 pitches.
Allen was terrified of Atlanta (understandably so) and hurled many of his fastballs outside of the zone armside. Seriously, we’re talking a 52% strike rate on his 48 heaters, and it’s kinda incredible that he walked just two. Let’s ignore him for a bit, please.
Colin Rea (MIL) vs NYY (ND) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 86 pitches.
At least he went six frames? Yay? And none rejoiced.
Joe Musgrove (SDP) vs PHI (L) – 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 90 pitches.
For a guy who nibbles like a Neckbeard, he sure gets punished a lot. Lots of damage came on the few sliders and cutters that fell over the plate, though the Phils also hit some pitches that were right on the edge or out of it. That sounds like excuses for a guy who has been terrible this year. His curve, cutter, and change have all been pummeled consistently, while his slider is his only saving grace, and isn’t stepping up on its own, despite adding a whole lot of horizontal break this year. It truly doesn’t feel like Musgrove deserves all of this destruction to his name – his pitches aren’t moving vastly differently than before and his command isn’t horrible. He’s still earning whiffs and if you want to stash him for a week, you can, though I have to think he’s solid when hosting the Reds next. He’s not going to have an 11.6 H/9, nor a 2.31 HR/9 (around 1.00 across the last three years!), or a 17% strikeout rate for the full year, especially when the SwStr rate is still 12.5%. IT DOESN’T ADD UP.
Chris Bassitt (TOR) vs LAD (L) – 2.2 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 77 pitches.
Oh no. Well…this was the Dodgers and that’s dumb. Should I pick him up? Uhhhh, YES. He was a rock for three straight before this and the Dodgers mess up all kinds of pitchers. ERA/WHIP marks this early are silly and Bassitt still has the same repertoire we know and love from previous seasons.
Game of the Day
Mitchell Parker vs. Edward Cabrera – Both are making their third starts of the year after showing promise.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
Hi, Nick. I read your SP Roundup in Pitcher List every day and love the insight you provide! Thanks!
Regarding your analysis of Gil, I watched his game on Friday as he’s one of SP. Yes, he gave up two 2 run HR, but it was how it happened. Turang, a good base stealer singled and Gil seemed overly concerned with him that he lost attention to the batter and served up pitch in the middle of the zone. Same thing happened next inning when Hoskins singled and again Gil seemed concerned with Hoskins throwing over to 1B and next pitch lost attention on Perkins who homered. Gil’s issues seem to be stemming from losing concentration on the batter and his control is not what it should be when he has runners on base.
I’ll give you a break on the Dodgers demolishing Bassitt, (because, as you pointed out, Dodgers), but you may want to watch him instead of just blindly starting him and telling us to do the same. I went against my better judgement and started him because you so matter-of-factly state “don’t overthink it” every time you type his name… and it destroyed my week. I’m just telling you what happened, and I truly blame myself for it, I’m not mad at the site. I value it greatly to the point at which I use a start suggestion here to make a choice I had been batting around in my head since his previous start. I should have followed my gut, and you *did* grade it as a questionable start. It’s all on me, but I am disappointed in PL.
It was against my better judgement because I’ve watched every single pitch of all his starts, and while he put up good numbers for 3 straight, he didn’t seem as put together and dependable as an SP who gets thoughtless starts every week, even in those starts. I kept coming here for advice or differences, and I got the “overthink” comment again…
His poor performance isn’t out of the blue, he’s had as many poor starts as he’s had quality ones, has given up a homer per game in parks like SEA, SD, and TB, his ERA is 5.64, and he has over 1.5 whip in all but one start. If any one of those things get worse than they are, (gosh forbid, more than one) he might become just “forget” instead of “set-and-forget.”
My point of all this is to politely request that you re-examine some of the guys you might gloss over because you expect them to be dope when they’ve shown regular flashes of less-than-dopeness. Thanks for your time.
To clarify, I meant “questionable” start as in not automatic, it would have been clearer if I just said “probable and not auto start”, sorry about that..