Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Tuesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Merrill Kelly (ARI) @ MIL (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 5 BBs, 1 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 104 pitches.
We waited nearly a month for Merrill Kelly to make his first start of the season, and now three games in, we’re waiting for Kelly to have a good start of the season. The latest was 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 5 BBs, 1 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 104 pitches (L) to the Brewers and with the Cubs and Coors in two of his next three starts, it sure feels like he’s a drop for the moment.
I’m not going to push back on that notion. Do I think Kelly is likely a productive 12-teamer option from May 20th onward? Absolutely. His changeup is consistently around where it should be to LHB, his velocity is generally the same as last year, and my only concerns come from a bit of worse movement on both the curveball and cutter. Maybe I should be more concerned about 1-3″ of less drop and/or ride, but Kelly has shown an ability to command far better than this in the past and after a disrupted spring, it’s more likely than not that he needs a little extra time to find his old rhythm.
So go ahead, drop for now as the value isn’t there, but don’t hesitate to jump back in when he comes through in the future. It would be foolish to play the “His season-long rates are bad!” game with a guy like Kelly when the time comes.
Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:
Nick Martinez (TBR) @ CLE (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 78 pitches.
He didn’t face a single RHB and I’m so glad he had his changeup working. I was more impressed with his ability to throw front-hip sinkers and keep nearly all of them on the inner half for 33% called strikes while surrendering just one hit. You may be shocked to see a near 2.00 ERA and stellar WHIP from Martinez after six games, where he has yet to allow more than two runs. He’s also failed to eclipse four strikeouts in all but one of those games – exactly six against the Reds Carpet. That’s a product of only 44% of the batters he faces seeing a two-strike count (average is around 57%). Can’t strike em out on strike one. The biggest change I’m seeing is a high focus on front-hip sinkers overall to LHB (34% called strikes to LHB in all games!) and I have to wonder how sustainable that is. He’ll get the Jays and Fenway next and I completely understand wanting to Vargas Rule this, though I have to preach caution. The low strikeout rate and high LOB rate are sure to affect the bottom line on a dime.
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) vs SFG (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 88 pitches.
Isn’t it nice when the terrible luck fades like the failures of your past in your timeline’s horizon? Yes, but we have to unpack that sentence. No we don’t! Just enjoy the King Cole and joy of rostering Luzardo with Miami + Rockie Road ahead.
Cam Schlittler (NYY) @ TEX (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 92 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. That cutter is a game-changer, but you may not realize that he had below-average extension last season. He peaked in this one, throwing sinkers with 7.1 feet of extension. That just makes the three fastball approach with absurd strike rates even harder to deal with. HE’S SO GOOD.
Clay Holmes (NYM) vs WSN (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 94 pitches.
Well that was a lot better than I expected. For a true sinkerball to throw 48% sinkers to LHB, I expected a lot of damage in play, and Koufax was kind with just one hit on eight balls in play, hand-waving the 63% hard contact allowed. The Nationals also played the passive game, allowing The Adobe to reach two strikes 73% of the time and helping promote a strikeout per inning. Not typical at all. Regardless, this is clearly working right now and the higher strike rates are a welcome sight for Holmes this year. We keep going against the Angels.
Janson Junk (MIA) @ LAD (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 76 pitches.
Whoaaa, that’s a Gold Star for Junk as he dominated the Dodgers across six frames. I’m surprised they didn’t pull him after five and under 60 pitches. Hey now. This was the best four-seamer command I’ve seen from him thus far, with an 86% strike rate and the majority living in the upper half, though I can’t say the same about the slider and sweeper, which filled the zone and rarely teased outside of it, resulting in 0/30 whiffs between them. That’s not good. No, it’s not. I can’t say I’m encouraged enough by this to start him against the Phillies up next (15% strikeout rate thus far with an average of just seven whiffs a game is terrible), but hopefully it sticks and I can get back in against the Nationals and/or Rays.
Trey Yesavage (TOR) vs BOS (W) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 74 pitches.
This was a very obvious Still ILL and yet, it worked out. Huh. How? The Red Sox failing to take advantage of hung splitters and four-seamers over the plate, that’s how. This was not prime Yesavage in the slightest – just a few low splitters at 3/29 whiffs and he had terrible slider feel (why would you swing at that high slider, Contreras?!) – and I’m still a little concerned about him with the Twins + Angels + Tigers up next. You kinda need to start him, though, as I wouldn’t suggest dropping him, and keeping him on the IL slot will prevent you from making any moves. Hey, it could just be the first start jitters, after all.
Martín Pérez (ATL) vs DET (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 91 pitches.
This dude right here. HOW DARE YOU DFA ME?! I wonder, can the Braves really deny him another start after eleven scoreless? Maybe it’s a six-man with Strider back? Or maybe he gets one more and Atlanta settles into a normal five-man after that and pushes him to the pen. I’m not saying he’s going to be stellar moving forward, it just seems like found money, you know?
Aaron Civale (ATH) vs KCR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 87 pitches.
Doing this inside Sacré Verde is pretty cool. Still don’t trust him at all – try to guess when it’ll work and you’ll get burned – but seeing high strike rates on cutters and curveballs at 50%+ usage is always a good sign for Civale. It may be more of a Blame it on the Royals than anything.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) vs NYY (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 93 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. A pair of hits in the first resulted in the only run as he was outdueled by Schlittler. You’re out of your league, old man.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs MIA (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 104 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Six innings, every game. That WHIP took a hit because he couldn’t locate any of his breakers (43% strikes on both the sweeper and curveball), but the four-seamer and splitter performed admirably. The greatest player we’ll ever see.
Davis Martin (CHW) vs LAA (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 98 pitches.
This Vargas Rule refuses to end. He’ll face the Angels again and we just keep rolling with it. He had some fun high four-seamer command to RHB and solid secondaries down, but the real story is a refusal to touch the heart of the plate. That’s the true skill you’ll find in a Vargas Rule arm.
Shane Baz (BAL) vs HOU (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 98 pitches.
Ayyyy a solid one from Baz! The curve and cutter were consistently down to RHB, but he’s still not overpowering with anything, even if he earned a fastball strikeout on a 98+ mph heater…which he tried to do again to the same hitter and Matthews launched the 96+ mph heater for a solo shot. I’m not signing up for this against the Yankees twice in his next three starts.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) @ MIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 93 pitches.
Aces gonna mid. Is it time to remove the label? It’s a 4.03 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 24% strikeout rate, as the old story of Gilbert fighting to locate his pitches properly continues. I kinda want to, and yet, you’re not going to stop starting the fella, and it’s not like this is bad start. Just not a stud start. I’m watching you, Gilbert.
Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs TBR (L) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 93 pitches.
For a game where his four-seamer and changeup each had roughly a 45% strike rate, and the cutter was hit-or-miss, I’m thrilled with this line. It sure doesn’t give me any confidence in repeatable success, though.
Kris Bubic (KCR) @ ATH (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 96 pitches.
This was much better BSB execution to RHB (even with some terrible misses on both the slowball and fastball), and I’m happy he’s at 92 mph on the four-seamer once again. That slider to LHB was terrible, though (42% strikes?!) and I don’t expect that to be the tale of Bubic throughout the season. @TEA next should be lovely.
Joe Ryan (MIN) vs SEA (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 88 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. We’re back on track. Not the greatest, but it was a Careful, Icarus with a run in the sixth and a double to lead off the seventh, the hook, and the run scoring. So unfair.
Chase Burns (CIN) vs COL (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 22 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 97 pitches.
We obviously love seeing a Gallows Pole and nine strikeouts, but did you really have to throw that terrible slider to Julien for a solo shot? It’s interesting to see five of his six hits coming against LHB, where the sole strike on four changeups was a hard single off the bat of…Julien. Whatever, go destroy the Pirates and we’ll talk about your Coronation day.
Chad Patrick (MIL) vs ARI (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 Hits, 5 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 98 pitches.
Five walks, eh? You’re not helping the whole “Is Patrick worth a spot on The List?” conversation. He was a tick up on everything, though, and had extra sink + cut on the cutter. Okay, I’m a little more interested, though Washington (LHB = harder for Patrick) + the Yankees = a no-go for me.
Walker Buehler (SDP) vs CHC (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 92 pitches.
Yeah, that looks about right. 50% strikes or worse on his four most thrown pitches + the slider as his only saving grace. Carry on.
Kai-Wei Teng (HOU) @ BAL (L) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 42 pitches.
This was a bullpen game and Ryan Weiss also appeared for 3 ER in 3.2 frames. Both of these guys are just not it.
Casey Mize (DET) @ ATL (L) – 2.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 34 pitches.
This is really unfortunate. He left this game with groin tightness and it likely means an IL stint. Sigh. I was starting to come around on Mize with his vastly improved slider feel and despite the low ranking on The List this week, that was solely due to the matchup here. He would get the Rangers, Royals, and Jays next and if he weren’t hurt, I’d probably have risen him into the 70s or 80s. Womp womp.
Edward Cabrera (CHC) @ SDP (W) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 99 pitches.
Only eight four-seamers! And just 13 sinkers with one more four-seamer than sinkers to LHB. Sure, fine. I don’t care, as long as the four-seamer isn’t forcing Cabrera to get into poor counts. For example, he has a 49% two-strike rate on the season, but this start came with a 64% clip. THAT’S EFFICIENCY. Stop yelling, he almost went 100 pitches and didn’t escape the sixth. Okay, you’re right. The wheels came off in the sixth inning and he simply couldn’t get out of it. I think I was too harsh on ECab this week with the Reds Carpet, @TEX, and CrySox up next. He’s a clear hold.
Kyle Leahy (STL) @ PIT (W) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 82 pitches.
Whoaaaa, seven strikeouts! Ah, he didn’t get more two-strike counts, but he had a 32% putaway rate that is sure not to stick. That said, he was looking stellar through five with seven punchouts, five hits, and 0 ER, but a solo shot, single, two-run HR, and single took him out of the game. Could have been 4 ER if the inherited runner scored. Man, we’re getting closer, aren’t we? I’ll keep monitoring for ya’ll. He needs to get to two strikes more often before we can believe.
José Soriano (LAA) @ CHW (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 97 pitches.
Uh oh. Out of all games to have regression, it was the CrySox. Really. The four-seamer that has been a giant area of growth this season fell to a 48% strike rate, and he finally allowed a pair of longballs (a hung curve and low sinker, both to LHB), but it’s the chaotic execution to LHB that has me the most annoyed. He frequently missed terribly away or spiked in the dirt, but then came back and earned a whiff. It would be foolish to point at this and go “See?! He can’t be trusted!” Of course not. This was a bit more of the floor I’m worried about, but he’ll get the CrySox a second time and he’s done so well thus far that he deserves all the benefit of the doubt that he’ll rebound. At least that’s what you have to do if you’re rostering him.
Payton Tolle (BOS) @ TOR (L) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 68 pitches.
Boy do I wish it wasn’t like this. Tolle did the same rug-pull to us last year after an explosive five-inning debut followed by an inefficient disaster that forced him to throw under 70 pitches. His velocity was down over two-ticks, with a three-click drop in extension from 7.5 feet to 7.2 feet, too. That can be explained a little by the hype of a season debut + the Yankees + getting ten days off previously vs. five days off here, and yet, that’s still huge, especially when throwing thirty fewer pitches (more gas in the tank). There’s also the terrible possibility that Gray returns next week and Tolle has the chance of getting bounced. However, the Red Sox could be calling up Jake Bennett after he was scratched from his Tuesday start, and whoever he would be replacing (Bello?) could be Tolle’s spot. In short, we do nothing right now. Just recognize that this could be coming to a close soon.
Kyle Freeland (COL) @ CIN (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 79 pitches.
He’s back and I’m happy for him. Let’s move on.
Zack Littell (WSN) @ NYM (L) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 14% CSW, 84 pitches.
Not even against the lowly Mets, eh?
Tyler Mahle (SFG) @ PHI (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 82 pitches.
Noooooo. He had it! Five frames of 1 ER ball, then a single, walk, double, double, hook. Yes, that’s four of his five runs in the sixth, giving us a Careful, Icarus. Sigh. That said, his four-seamer was sitting 91-92 for the entire game, but he did push it a lot more after the first few pitches in each of the fourth, fifth, and sixth frames… but it returned a 51% strike rate for the night. That’s not it. I’m sticking with him, though, with @TBR and vs PIT up next, but why, OH WHY, does he have to get the Dodgers again on May 14th?! That’s just cruel.
Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) vs STL (L) – 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 87 pitches.
Jeeeeeez, this wasn’t a fun time. The sinker let him down with just a 40% strike rate, but really this was Koufax abandoning him + a terrible 1-2 curveball for a HR. The good news? He’ll stroll down the Reds Carpet next + Oracle Park after. I’m not the biggest Ashcraft supporter, but you obviously need to hold for that. If he’s looking terrible after that (the curve had far less movement than last year in this game at the same velocity, for example), then we’ll chat. Also, why are you throwing just 15% sliders?! Those are legit pitches at 91/92 mph. Just saying.
Game of the Day
Elmer Rodríguez vs. Nathan Eovaldi – It’s Elmer! Don’t expect dominance and follow the PILOT rule, but he’s been carving up the minors with his hard sinker + slider. Also, Eovaldi should still be good enough to take down the Yankees.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
