Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Wednesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Cade Cavalli (WSN) @ NYM (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 97 pitches.
After fanning 18 across his first fine games and failing to eclipse five punchouts, Cade Cavalli has turned heads in his last two starts, collecting ten strikeouts in each, including yesterday’s 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 97 pitches (W) against the lowly Mets. I was heavily disinterested in Cavalli during his early stretch, and now it would be foolish to ignore him.
It’s easy to see the improved whiff totals of his last two (14 and 18), catalyzed by his curveball’s high CSW marks, and call it a day. But there’s more at play. The biggest is a huge jump in putaway rate at an unsustainable 35%+ for two straight outings (18% for the year, including this start), which has done a whole lot of work to quiet the damage he’s allowed. Look at that line again – that’s ten baserunners and just two runs for Cavalli, with 7/14 outs on balls in play (+ a Soto bomb). It’s not just Koufax, it’s also 73% hard contact, and it could have been worse if he didn’t allow 31% foul balls on his four-seamer (not a whiff pitch).
That curveball is elite and will always be a proper weapon for Cavalli, but when it isn’t at its absolute peak to LHB, it can be rough. He commanded four-seamers and a few changeups very well (better than usual) to LHB, while his RHB approach of sinkers & four-seamers + sweepers doesn’t instill confidence (0/9 sweeper whiffs with just two hooks thrown), and if he weren’t able to get to two-strikes so often and put them away so efficiently, this would have been a disaster outing. The floor is much closer than 2 ER and 10 strikeouts will tell you.
He’s set to face the Twins and Marlins up next and I’m going to continue to place him in the questionable start tier. A pair of ten-strikeout games shovels heaps of coal into any pitcher’s hype train and if you want to take part, I don’t blame you. Personally, I don’t believe the core issues have been addressed, and there is clear regression ahead.
Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:
Gavin Williams (CLE) vs TBR (W) – 7.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 95 pitches.
You’re gonna like it, and you’re not gonna like it. I really wish Gavin would just tell us when he plans to throw 74% strikes across his arsenal. I could ship the King Cole award ahead of time, save a few bucks. But his velocity was down! Ehhh, it was 51 degrees and I’ll always prefer a 95+ mph Gavin with fantastic control with a loose BSB to LHB over a 97 mph Gavin with a 55% strike rate. Gotta keep rolling with this Cherry Bomb.
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) vs NYY (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 102 pitches.
I know he doesn’t have the AGA label, but Eovaldi is someone I’m generally starting regardless of the opponent. He’s a crafty RHP who has had some poor luck thus far and exhibited the same arsenal from last year, without a significant decline in command. And speaking of which, his cutter and splitter feel were phenomenal in this one, going BSB with the two against LHB, and even flexing the splitty against RHB effectively. In fact, he threw it 40% of the time with 15 total heaters as the secondaries led the way. Four-seamer Schmore-Schmeamer, am I right? Enjoy that Gallows Pole, Eovaldi. Look at me. I am the Gausman now. Okay, chill fella.
Tomoyuki Sugano (COL) @ CIN (W) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 91 pitches.
That’s a 2.87 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across six games thus far. Nick, you can’t be endorsing this. I’m not! But it’s cool, isn’t it? He throws six pitches from the right side (I’ll still forever think of him as a southpaw) and a wide arsenal always grants the chance of creating more outs than expected. He’s only a consideration in NL-Only leagues, at best.
Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) @ CHW (ND) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 35 pitches.
Kikuchi left this one early with left shoulder tightness. Bummer. Aaron?! Nah, I don’t think he’s going to take over as the starter. It may be Mitch Farris, who came in for 62 pitches of 3.2 IP and 1 ER ball after. I have a soft spot for him with a super slowball changeup and a cutter/fastball approach that can mess up RHB despite the 90 mph velocity. It’s silly, I know, I’ll just keep it to myself.
Luis Severino (ATH) vs KCR (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 103 pitches.
WHOA BABY. He killed it at home! Sevy allowed at least 4 ER in both his former Sacré Verde starts against weak lineups and I’m thrilled to see him come through for trusting managers. He leaned on the heater up-and-away to LHB more than usual, and it was sinker/sweeper city to RHB with the surprise heater for whiffs. Now he heads to Philly and Baltimore and I’m kinda in…? On the surface, it doesn’t look like a huge difference in the arsenal, but the feel for the edges looks better to my eye. I could be overreacting, though, and I’ll make him questionable for those two (a two-step, no less!).
Andre Pallante (STL) @ PIT (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 91 pitches.
Oh dang. It’s a good day when the four-seamer returns 30% called strikes (thanks PIT!), allowing the slider to jump in for 82% strikes to LHB. I want to give credit to Pallante for tossing out the four-seamer and going sinker-heavy to RHB this season, which he’s commanded consistently on the inner half and separated from the outside slider. I have confidence in him to deal with RHB at the moment (shocking, right?) and it’s all about figuring out LHB. I’m not sold that the four-seamer is the answer with the curve and splitter pairing with the low slider, and I’ll keep monitoring. The Brewers + Sacré Verde aren’t worth the risk yet.
Eric Lauer (TOR) vs BOS (ND) – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 68 pitches.
He stepped in for the hurt Scherzer and I think y’all know to stop dreaming of another 17 whiff outing. A HAISTBMBWT?! is partially due to his limited pitch count, but y’all know to avoid this. He may not even last long if José Berríos is good to go in a week or two.
Tarik Skubal (DET) @ ATL (ND) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 91 pitches.
Aces gonna allow a two-run shot in the first and then lock it DOWN. Sorry the Tigers blew it in the ninth, though. That’s too bad. There was a scary moment in the seventh where it seemed like he may have some arm discomfort, but he said he felt fine after, and if this was a serious issue, there’s no way he stays in and strikes out the side. Until we get more information, don’t do anything. By the way, we’re seven games in now and Skubal has a 26% strikeout rate. Oh no. Pfffft, we haven’t seen his final form yet. Don’t worry, the double-digit strikeout games are coming.
Erick Fedde (CHW) vs LAA (ND) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 103 pitches.
You can’t trust him, and yet, that’s a 3.00 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, but he still doesn’t have a Win this season. Regardless of those ratios, I’m giving him the Gold Star – seven frames with just five baserunners?! Hot DANG, look at you!
Taj Bradley (MIN) vs SEA (ND) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 114 pitches.
This came with a two-out Careful, Icarus in the seventh for his final run, taking away his Win. I’ve been vocal about my distrust of Bradley’s electric start to the year and after a decline of command coming to a head in his last start, I saw it as a return to the valley. Oh boy, here I go putting egg on my face again. I know it sounds weird for me to say that I still have skepticism that Bradley can execute his attack the way he wants to, and I can’t put my finger on what exactly Bradley has done to vastly improve his command (I mean, is it that much better? 9% walk rate and sub 6.0 innings per start, FWIW), so I guess if you want to keep riding it, go for it. I personally watch him and see inconsistent locations just like we’re used to, but the results are going his way more than usual. Still lots of spiked pitches and super high non-competitive misses. Sorry, I really wish I could give my full sign-off here. Please point me in the right direction for what he’s doing that is truly sustainable vs. what we’ve seen in previous seasons from an arsenal perspective, not a results perspective.
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) @ LAD (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 104 pitches.
It’s a Dusty Donut where you’re only happy with the 3.00 ERA against the Dodgers, but everything else is…meh. The good news? His changeup was fantastic and, along with the sinker, has gained two inches of drop (maybe a Dodgers’ thing?). It’s a purgatory start where it’s not enough for me to believe he’ll become HIM, but I guess it’s fine for the Orioles next. Please, Sandy, we need you to be you.
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) vs MIA (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 6 BBs, 9 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 92 pitches.
Aces gonna walk six batters?! Did no one tell him he was facing the Marlins?! The problem here was a poor feel for his curveball, and I’m not sure why he didn’t transition to the slider against LHB (27 curveballs vs 3 sliders), which has been so much better as of late as a real strike pitch. Also, it’s a 88/89 mph gyro slider that can get up to -8″ of vert. That’s INSANE. Wait. That’s only against LHB. Against RHB, that slider gets 1″ of depth but four inches of sweep. Is he throwing two different sliders to LHB & RHB? Why….? I’ll put Eno and Lance on the case.
George Kirby (SEA) @ MIN (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 97 pitches.
Looks like Savant is now calling his slider a sweeper, which is fair given its 10/11 inches of sweep, but it’s at 86 mph. And look at that! 17% SwStr to RHB with…up-and-away sinkers that allowed a pair of hits. This was a game of getting Singled Out and I’m still sad his 97th pitch was ball four, preventing him from going the full six frames. It’s still a work in progress for Kirby despite the legit stuff, and I will say, he does a great job of keeping the curve and change down with cutters up-and-in to LHB, while he’s axed the four-seamer heavily to focus on it upstairs in two-strike counts. I’m here for that. When the putaway rate stabilizes to 22%+ (not the 14% here), the strikeouts will flow like spice. We’ll all get addicted to it.
JR Ritchie (ATL) vs DET (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 97 pitches.
For a guy who is supposed to be command-first, it’s not fun seeing four walks in the books. I dig that he’s locating the curveball well to RHB and using it nearly exclusively as a two-strike pitch to them at 93 mph and left two-plane movement, and it was disheartening to see the Tigers spit on Ritchie’s stellar precision for just one whiff in seven thrown. Meanwhile, the sinker is living up (not in) and the four-seamer leaves a lot to be desired, though he saved that pitch for two-strike counts plenty too, gassing it up to 96 mph in the process. We saw the velocity decline from a max of 97.4 mph in the first to a 92.5 mph sinker in the fifth, falling precipitously in the third (92/94), though that’s kinda standard for younger arms. I like that he’s avoiding the heart of the plate and trying to work a six-pitch mix, though command-first prospects are tricky as they battle their emotions to keep their skill intact without overwhelming stuff to keep them afloat. He’ll get a gift in @TEA next, but it’s a two-step that includes the Dodgers next Sunday that I’d prefer not to risk.
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) @ CLE (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 91 pitches.
This was 100% LHB and he didn’t have his best changeup. It was still a day of weak contact and Koufax wasn’t the kindest, leading to a disappointing start for Rasmussen’s standards. So it goes.
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) @ MIL (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 87 pitches.
This is the E. Rodriguez blurb. No, not that E. Rodriguez, the one you’ve known for years, who is struggling to get back into the Vargas Rule phase of the season. Maybe the Pirates or Mets lock him in place, but it’s not the ideal grab for 12-teamers.
Elmer Rodríguez (NYY) @ TEX (L) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 80 pitches.
That line looks terrible, but it was pretty dang solid for an MLB debut through four, while he came out for the fifth and hit a batter, issued a walk, a “single” off Rice at first, then a groundball single through the hole for two runs. Props to the Yankee pen for preventing the other two inherited runners from scoring. The approach is what I expected -a sinker/sweeper arm to RHB, four-seamer/curve (and a questionable change) to LHB – and it’s a good sinker and big sweeper, but the curve is a low 78 mph and that four-seamer is rough. The best part is its location upstairs, but at 11″ vert and 10″ ride, that’s incredibly hittable. It’s unclear how much we’ll see of Elmer, and I wouldn’t suggest chasing this given the highly suspect LHB approach (walks are standard for an MLB debut, by the walk. He’s not a high-walk guy, with his sinkers generating outs early in counts and often). I am curious to see how he develops moving forward, though. If a cutter appears, or a legit changeup for LHB, then this could be something.
Jameson Taillon (CHC) @ SDP (W) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 95 pitches.
Ayyyy a dub! Two of those three hits were longballs off hung pitches (upstairs sweeper at 1-2 and a high cutter) across three straight at-bats with a walk in-between (the fifth frame wasn’t his best – he was perfect prior!), and the rest was a lovely gift from Koufax. He did a great job with his sweeper otherwise and that sinker got inside well
Bubba Chandler (PIT) vs STL (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 85 pitches.
Welp, not even a great schedule can fix a guy who doesn’t have his command. It truly is shocking to me and I have no issues with anyone dropping Bubba at this point, despite all of my praise and belief internally. Value now vs. Value later. Yes, yes, I wish I had given you that advice earlier, and yet, it’s so hard to tell if a pitcher with command issues who hasn’t had them before will continue to have them after they have a firm rotation spot out of camp for the first time. And I’ll keep telling you he’s wearing a TIARA. There will be a game where it clicks. Maybe the rain got to him, maybe there’s a lot of mental stuff going on that we don’t know about. I don’t know. His mix is truly elite and he’s not as chaotic as someone like Leiter, as you can see the intended locations, but he’s missing too far in those extremes. One day.
Matt Waldron (SDP) vs CHC (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 83 pitches.
Don’t Trust A Knuckleballer. Wait, you did? Why? I thought my bread would get buttered. Why would you think that? I DON’T KNOW.
Michael Wacha (KCR) @ ATH (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 105 pitches.
Blegh. The terrible place they call Sacré Verde strikes again. It was clear Wacha wasn’t comfortable in the minor league park and I refuse to let this game + the one final inning of his last start to take me away from starting him against the Guardians. He’s a changeup guy, y’all. It’s the matchup you want.
Brandon Sproat (MIL) vs ARI (L) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 82 pitches.
He struck out the side in the first frame, including blowing 99 mph heat past both Perdomo and Marte for his first two strikeouts, and things were blissful through three. After fanning Carroll again, an oppo-taco solo shot, a bad cutter, and a decent cutter return two singles, then a poor middle-down 97 mph sinker to Arenado scored all three. Ugh. I know you’re angry at me. Truly, I’m so disappointed. I had him in questionable after all, and with all the disappointing arms, Sproat really feels like the one who should be working out better by now, but there are some clear flaws. He didn’t earn a single whiff on seventeen pitches to RHB, where his sinker didn’t get inside, the cutter was over the middle, and the sweeper was thrown just once in its ideal spot (it induced a popout). And that’s the truly shocking part. Sproat is supposed to dominate RHB – he was a sinker/sweeper guy last year! – and the question was LHB. Now the cutter, four-seamer, and curve have few problems there and suddenly the sweeper and sinker command are gone. And this is where I get hung up a lot. The arsenal is all there, so it’s just figuring out the right approach and the right cues for him to locate consistently. With Quinn Priester around the corner, the Brewers will look at him and Patrick as the two options to demote and I truly hope they stick it out with Sproat. Give him the reps because he has so much more potential. I hope they do and in the meantime, I’m incredibly tempted to start him against the Cardinals next…but not the Yankees after. So fine, let him sit on the wire for that one and not put yourself in harm’s way. You’ll know when to jump back in.
Brayan Bello (BOS) @ TOR (L) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 63 pitches.
Oh right, the Sawx haven’t moved on from you yet. Now with Crochet’s injury, Jake Bennett can’t replace Bello in the rotation. What a rough time in Bean Town. Baseball is better when the Red Sox and Yankees are both excellent. Say that to Baltimore and Toronto fans and see what they tell you (I agree).
Brandon Williamson (CIN) vs COL (L) – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 58 pitches.
It was Rockie Road and I really wanted to believe Williamson would have it together for this one. He didn’t, so much so that he went on the IL with shoulder fatigue. Welp, just in time for Lodolo’s return.
David Peterson (NYM) vs WSN (L) – 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 80 pitches.
That fourth frame was pain. Three walks and two groundball singles among a pair of strikeouts. Hi Pat, I’d like to buy an out. NOPE. HOW DARE YOU EVEN ASK. Don’t do this to yourself.
Game of the Day
Michael Soroka vs. Brandon Woodruff – I want the Soroka hype to continue + Woody is always an interesting watch.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
