Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Mick Abel (MIN) vs DET (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 102 pitches.
I know how it sounded. I was into Mick Abel before the season started and when he was lit up in his first game, I defended him: No no no, that was in relief and this was the first time he’s been in a rotation out of camp. He’s fine. Then he made his first official start, was horrendous, and I defended him again, despite the eye rolls I could feel through the screen: He pitched in SNOW. We haven’t seen him in normal conditions yet. To say that I’m relieved to see 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 102 pitches (ND) with a share of a Gallows Pole against the Tigers is a bit of an understatement. And guess what? It was 44 degrees outside. Yeesh.
As a result, we did see Abel sit 95 mph throughout the game (falling to 94 mph in the sixth), and I wouldn’t be surprised if that rose across the next few weeks when he can actually feel comfortable (he gets a domed start in Tampa on April 26th. CAN’T WAIT). Outside of velocity, I saw things I loved and things I hope improve in the future. His four-seamer command was stellar per usual, featuring a 40% CSW and 70% strike rate as the pitch sat up in the zone routinely, taking advantage of its 18″ of vert and 1.5 HAVAA and seven feet of extension. Ohhh, so that’s why you have a thing for him. Yuuuuup. Throw in a changeup with nearly 1.5 feet of drop relative to the heater, and you have yourself a lovely pair for LHB, while the 83/84 mph sweeper should do the job to RHB. Should.
The breakers are the biggest question here as they earned just a few whiffs across the 37 thrown between sweepers, curves, and sliders. I also wish the changeup was able live a little lower in the zone to LHB, but he wasn’t punished once and that could be perfectly fine as a counterpart to the heater. I’m also surprised to see the sinker disappear completely, but then again, the four-seamer cruised against RHB, so why fix what isn’t broken?
I’m not granting a full endorsement to Abel at the moment, simply because the Shag Rug exists and I’m not seeing enough whiffability from his breakers at the moment. That said, I’m taking the chance against the Red Sox and hoping he gives us a little more outside of four-seamer dominance. He’s one of those arms that could soar the moment it all clicks together, and maybe this is the first start of that hot streak. Just in case, I’ll make a few phone calls to get the temperature up next week. It’s the least I can do.
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Jeffrey Springs (ATH) @ NYY (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 93 pitches.
Oh dang, that’s a Rainbow Goal for Springs, who continues to flex his new and improved four-seamer with 3″ of vert, and did a phenomenal job of going BSB with the heater to RHB, pairing it with his elite changeup to embrace the SWATCH lifestyle. The bigger surprise is the slider having success to LHB despite living well inside the zone over and over again in 0-0 counts. It was so much free real estate that Grant Holmes was getting FOMO. Some Yankees did swing at those early hangers, returning a trio of outs + the sole hit that broke Springs’ no-hit bid in the seventh. If the Rangers, White Sox, or Rangers again don’t wise up to the approach, Springs could very well continue this stretch of success. The improved heater is a big difference.
Anthony Kay (CHW) @ KCR (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 100 pitches.
THERE IT IS. Kay threw inside fastballs and away breakers to LHB with ease, earning all six strikeouts, one out in play, and zero baserunners. That left all the damage without a single strikeout against RHB (five baserunners in fifteen batters). I’m blaming the lack of changeup feel (50% strikes, 0/12 whiffs) and over-reliance on four-seamers and cutters, with both failing to land consistently up or inside. Maybe this was a better outing simply because the Royals featured more LHB than other lineups, and that does give me a little pause before jumping in completely. And yet, it’s the Rays next. I don’t think you have to chase this – the 96 mph heater comes with terrible extension and pretty blegh movement (“Empty Velocity!”), while the changeup hasn’t dominated and it’s the White Sox – but 15-teamers should absolutely take note. Let’s hope he demands a pickup next start for the following @ARI and WSN outings.
Ryan Weathers (NYY) vs ATH (L) – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 101 pitches.
The sinker velocity was down to under 94 mph, which is startling given the 96/97 mph we’ve seen prior (remember the absurd velocity of the preseason?), and after sitting 92/93 in the seventh, Weathers earned three outs on fifteen pitches without throwing a single fastball. That’s right, a strikeout and two groundouts exclusively via sweepers and changeups. That’s pretty dang cool. The velocity thing? A little, yeah. He had much better command this time, though, featuring a 72% overall strike rate, and maybe it was a conscious effort to lessen his max effort – after all, we did see him gas it up to 97.4 mph to end the seventh inning with a strikeout. It’s still in there + the four-seamer is at 95 mph + the sweeper/change were stellar. No reason to feel anything but solid with the Angels up next.
Seth Lugo (KCR) vs CHW (L) – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 92 pitches.
It’s a bit of a Dusty Donut with a rare four walk game from Lugo and I’ll take it every day that ends in Ayyyyyy. I guess we keep rolling with this, even if PL Bot is telling me that the Tigers are a strong offense…? I don’t think his early success is going to last for a whole lot longer, but sure, Vargas Rule it all you want.
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) @ NYM (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 102 pitches.
Through three games, Erod now has a 0.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP…with a 16% strikeout rate. Soooo this is real? Oh, sweet summer child. He’s doing a phenomenal job nailing his changeup down-and-away and not giving up on the pitch despite its 49% strike rate, returning seven outs and taking full advantage of the ridiculous armside wind of Citi Field to gain five extra inches of run to -21″ horizontal. Yeah, that’s not real. Maybe that’s why the strikes were fewer. Maybe. At any rate, this is a Vargas Rule for as long as Eduardo is in rhythm and the Orioles and White Sox are who you want to see ahead.
Jack Flaherty (DET) @ MIN (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 89 pitches.
Oh hey, you were alright! He got away with a first-pitch four-seamer down the pipe to Buxton to start the game (HUGE props to Benetti and Co. for discussing it on the broadcast to kick off the game. They’re so good.) and it was that kind of game. I didn’t see anything exciting and new to make me believe Flaherty is doing anything different to repair his poor ratios (the WHIP is still a problem, of course) and I’d avoid for the Royals next.
Randy Vásquez (SDP) vs COL (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 92 pitches.
Yesssss. Six of his seven pitches returned at least one whiff, with the heater earning 6/36 on its own. That’s hot. Yeah, just like the San Diego temperature and not like the Boston environment last week, which means his velocity is back to featuring the +2 tick increase we saw in spring. Good ole 95/96 mph for 31% CSW. That cutter is still cooking at 90 mph and boatloads more movement, too, and I’m a fan. Not ZOMG fan, but Vásquez should be a productive Toby if not flirt with Holly this year if the velocity holds. Nick, he won’t face Rockie Road every time. Very fair, but he will get the Mariners next and that’s still cool with me.
Max Meyer (MIA) vs CIN (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 87 pitches.
Ehhh, strolling down the Reds Carpet should be more fun than this. His slide piece was an absurd 91 mph gyro slider that returned 6/17 whiffs but failed to come through when needed, walking two with the pitch too far down-and-away. It doesn’t inspire the most confidence in Meyer (1/21 whiffs on sweepers? Really?) with Atlanta up ahead, and among all the exciting arms, I have Meyer behind them. The heaters aren’t blowing me away and the pair of breakers aren’t quite doing everything they need to. But the changeup! It’s working, but I question its command. It’s all close but I have yet to see that game where I get really amped.
Chase Dollander (COL) @ SDP (ND) – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 81 pitches.
We have a third co-share of the Gallows Pole today with Dollander, who entered at the start of the second frame and showcased that he can be a streaming option outside Coors. The 98-100 mph four-seamer that held through 81 pitches may not have all the movement you want, but it’s flat and, you know, HOT DANG HE THROW HARD. That combo was stupid good when he sat upstairs to RHB, which returned eight of his fourteen whiffs. Hard not to like that. He returned outs to RHB mostly through sinkers and changeups down the pipe, which isn’t quite ideal, and showcases that there is some polish left to add here, which is tough when half your games are in Coors. Man, it’s just not fair. I’d be all over him if he pitched for any other team. Sigh. What am I doing, he goes to Houston on Wednesday, where that heater should feast on their RHB. Sign. Me. Up. It’s the first time I think I’m actually going to encourage Dollander for a stream. OH BABY.
Nolan McLean (NYM) vs ARI (L) – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 100 pitches.
Alright Nolan, your AGA test is upon you with the Dodgers up next. You’ll not just be rewarded with the coveted wreaths of glory and solid blue tag on The List, nay, you’ll also be granted an experience of a lifetime – two tickets to face the Twins and Rockie Road thereafter. Gasp. Okay, you’re going to get the tickets anyway, but won’t it feel less cheap if you have the AGA tag already? Fun fact: His sweeper was registered at -22.6″ of horizontal movement today. Citi Field, you’re such a rascal.
Rhett Lowder (CIN) @ MIA (L) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 95 pitches.
Womp womp. I was giving Lowder all the praise and in this lovely matchup away from Cincy, he elected to feature his worst sinker command to RHB and a few leaked four-seamers to RHB for more damage. His changeup didn’t get the results we wanted, either, with just a 46% strike rate to LHB, but it was still in the right general area and not terrible misses. Not a fun one, though it doesn’t remove him from the streaming menu, especially with vs. SFG, @ TBR, and Rockie Road ahead. He could easily succeed in two of those, with the chance for all three. Just get those fastballs located better like you used to. And the slider to RHB. Okay, that too. Thx.
Game of the Day
Emerson Hancock vs. Tatsuya Imai – I’m excited to watch both and hopefully we get a proper pitchers’ duel. I guess Holmes vs. Ginn is the real game of the day as I’ll be at Citi Field with the Pitcher List crew. You know me, when I go to a game, all I want to see are groundballs. Nothing better.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
