Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup 5/1: Ghost Fork in the Road

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.

Kodai Senga (NYM) vs ARI (L) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 87 pitches.

I don’t think we’ve spent a whole lot of time discussing Kodai Senga, and after a forgettable 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 87 pitches (ND) line against the Sneks, I think it’s time to shine a spotlight on him. It’s only fair after blinding us with the gold letters of an unimpressive co-share of the Gallows Pole (Seriously, no one could beat 13 whiffs today?!).

I’ve had two concerns with Senga across the season thus far. First is obvious: His velocity has been down and was once again here at 94.2 mph (not ~96 mph) and it’s carried over to his Ghost Fork, cutter, and slider, making his upside appear a little more distant than usual.

The second is his cutter approach. We’ve seen Senga turn away from the bridge offering plenty this year, while I’ve considered it the necessary glue to mask his hittable four-seamer and allow the splitty to stay out of the zone and churn whiffs at will. I’m glad to report that the cutter was featured heavily in this one at 24% usage, returning a 76% strike rate and 43% CSW. I’ll take a little bit of hard contact here and there to help stabilize the entire start.

The bottom line of this day against a tough squad was his inability to locate his four-seamer effectively, nor the slider, sinker, and sweeper depth pieces he’s flexed so far this season. The cutter can only do so much, and he was too inefficient to go more than four frames as a result. I’m viewing this outing as more of an exception and considering Senga a touch more favorably as I’m encouraged by the cutter. If only the velocity weren’t such a bummer. We’re holding Senga and expecting a low-end Holly for the foreseeable future.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:

 

Jeffrey Springs (ATH) @ TEX (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 68 pitches.

Springs had a day filled with sunshine and rainbows as the four-seamer was flung into the zone with his eyes closed and reckless abandon to RHB and somehow the Rangers failed to punish him for it. They tried awfully hard, given 17/18 outs came from balls in play (HAISTBMBWT?!) and for whatever reason, Koufax took it easy on Springs. I’m not buying it with just 2/14 changeup whiffs despite facing RHB almost exclusively.

Sean Burke (CHW) vs MIL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 94 pitches.

Ayyyyy, you gave us production today! Enjoy this Gold Star after returning 30%+ CSW on all three of your main offerings. Too bad you’re still at 94 mph on the four-seamer with your 7.1 feet of extension and 18″ of vert, but as long as you keep those upstairs (mostly to LHB here) and land the slider and curve down (they weren’t? Dancing With The Disco + random curves), then you’re golden. Nick, I get the sense you don’t think he’s golden. He’s not. But he could be! He gets the Royals and Marlins next, is it worth it? Ehhhhh, he’s interesting in deeper leagues against the Royals, and he’s a 12-teamer stream for the Marlins as long as he shows the same skills against the Royals.

Ben Lively (CLE) vs MIN (ND) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 91 pitches.

A Philly against the Twins with just two strikeouts feels awfully close to the ceiling for Lively. I’m happy for everyone who had to take a chance on this in deeper leagues and you shouldn’t go any further. Not even to the kitchen? Not. Any. Further. But I’m hungry! You should have thought of that before rostering Lively.

Andrew Abbott (CIN) vs STL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 74 pitches.

Did the rain delay save Abbott? When I watch him, I see some great pitches across his outings mixed with a whole lot blegh and this one felt a lot like the latter. With Atlanta + Houston up next and a fastball that’s still sitting below 92 mph, I think you should send him to the wire if you haven’t already.

Tanner Houck (BOS) @ TOR (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 86 pitches.

DUDE. You found your velocity! Houck sat 95.8 mph after showing us 93.7 mph for the last month, while the sweeper…uh…the sweeper had even less horizontal break. It now has 7 fewer inches of sweep. No, that’s not a good thing, even if it’s also coming in two ticks harder. He also threw more of them to LHB than to RHB…? This start makes no sense whatsoever. Oh! He also went upstairs with his sinker to LHB while spitting them mostly down the pipe to RHB and it worked. WHAT IS GOING ON? The new velocity is certainly good news even if this approach is kinda wild (it did lead to his splitter and sweeper getting hit pretty hard, though) and if you want to see where this leads, I don’t blame you. He’ll get the Rangers next and there’s a chance he builds upon this. Or maybe he was just fed up and went max effort. Who knows.

Tyler Mahle (TEX) vs ATH (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 90 pitches.

Hot dang, look at you! Mahle went ultra splitter in this one, bombarding LHB with the pitch over 61% of the time, and he effortlessly landed the pitch down-and-away as it led him through six frames. The cutter we saw last game had a minimal presence (this was four-seamer/splitter for the most part) and this can work, I guess. I didn’t like the heater all that much here with a 28% CSW and questionable command even though he showed good control of finding the zone. He gets the Sawx next, and despite the success here, I’d be careful with that one. Surely he won’t have the same precision on the splitter.

Zac Gallen (ARI) @ NYM (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 90 pitches.

Whoa whoa whoa. Gallen, this can’t be right. I legit cannot believe what I’m seeing. Spill it. Gallen is going the Canibal McSanchez. WHAT. I know, right?! Every cutter he threw was in the upper third, going 21% usage against LHB and it returned 77% strikes with a 31% CSW. Sadly, there was some damage on those thirteen pitches, but this obviously worked wonders. That approach means the four-seamer also sat upstairs. Oh, it did! Well, the approach was reserved for LHB, while RHB saw the same ole thigh-high four-seamer and curve underneath, with the former still giving me the shivers. This is a really interesting LHB approach that turns it into a BSB with curves and a few scattered changeups underneath, and I have to hand it to him. I’m so curious if this was just a one-time event or if we can stop getting PPV and sign up for a subscription.

Taijuan Walker (PHI) vs WSN (L) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 85 pitches.

Sure, whatever Taijuan. I guess you’re finally throwing sub 20% fastballs and I’m actually happy for you. I think it’s the right call. I still had more walks than strikeouts. Oh how true that is.

José Berríos (TOR) vs BOS (ND) – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 88 pitches.

Oh dang, you’re bringing the cutter back? I’m here for that, and I’m also here for 5/12 changeup whiffs. What’s strange is the curve looking a bit mid with 0/20 whiffs and being used more as a called strike offering. I also worry about his heaters constantly, even if the four-seamer is good at nibbling against LHB. Welp, enjoy the stupid low bar of a Gallows Pole co-share as we hope his next two games against the Angels and @TEA fare as well as the matchups suggest. You never know with The Great Undulator. We really don’t.

Justin Verlander (SFG) vs COL (ND) – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 85 pitches.

Ehhhh, I’ll take the line but I’m scared. The four-seamer velocity dropped all the way from nearly 95 mph to just over 93 mph, while the slider was featured just 13% of the time. I don’t quite get why the slider was limited, but it’s hard not to be afraid of Verlander when he’s sitting just 93 mph. I’m thrilled this was Rockie Road, but it could have been far worse. Now I have to make the decision about starting him against the Cubs and that’s not fun in the slightest. I guess I’m doing it but I feel icky about it.

Seth Lugo (KCR) @ TBR (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 93 pitches.

Lugo, you’re just a lovely addition to every 12-teamer. Thanks for being the Holly that you are.

Colin Rea (CHC) @ PIT (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 73 pitches.

Whoa, for a guy usually at 93 mph, seeing 94/95 mph at 6.8 feet of extension and a somewhat flat attack angle is cool! Sure, the vert is an atrocity (more drop than Burnes’ cutter yesterday at 13″…) but that four-seamer was ole reliable for 62% usage and called strikes + outs all game. Thank you Rea, thank you Pittsburgh, and thank you Giants for being the next team we can stream Rea against.

Brad Lord (WSN) @ PHI (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 69 pitches.

It always cracks me up a little when the winning pitcher throws fewer frames with more ER than his opponent and gets the Win while his rival gets the loss. Errors, who needs em? Congrats to Lord for this one, I’m not sure anyone expected him to escape with a Win, let alone some kind of production. But a 1.40 WHIP. Don’t worry, we all see it.

Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) vs DET (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 93 pitches.

Is the velocity back?! A little, but still trying to get above 95 mph and not back to being buds with 96 mph. I’m happy to see the slider being the king against LHB (78% usage!), but the four-seamer wasn’t elevated to RHB and his secondaries did little to help him out there, including the slide piece. I’m still very out on Kikuchi, sadly.

Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) @ CLE (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 5 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 98 pitches.

The vert fell back down to a solid 17-18″ mark, not the seductive flirtation with 20″, while the velocity and general affinity to locate up with the four-seamer remained. He also did well against RHB with a legit slider down-and-away (7/28 whiffs!), but LHB. Oh, those pesky lefties. SWR tried to tempt them with sixteen changeups and returned just a 44% strike rate, which explains the high walk rate and large pitch count. I can see how all of these pieces could come together to become a productive Toby or even low-end Holly, but he simply hasn’t displayed a track record we can rely on. I don’t think it’s worth chasing.

Matthew Liberatore (STL) @ CIN (L) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 42 pitches.

Stupid rain, hiding the fact that Liberatore sat just 93.8 mph and struggled massively to find his slider + a whiff on anything at all. Whatever, have a ball against the Pirates up next.

Kyle Freeland (COL) @ SFG (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 91 pitches.

A VPQS on the road. That’s the Freeland life you want him to live, and for those who needed that, cheers, I guess.

Chad Patrick (MIL) @ CHW (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 102 pitches.

Nearly a PQS that would have had all of us aggressively patting you on the back to the point where you really wish that was never a thing people did to each other. The cutter is once again leading the charge during these moments of (almost) productivity, and allow me to note that the pitches that make up the other 51% of his arsenal each failed to eclipse a 20% CSW. Carry on.

Paul Skenes (PIT) vs CHC (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 86 pitches.

Aces gonna deal with the mighty Cubs and look like Rea on the other side. Come on, that’s harsh. True, Rea looked better. SACRE BLEU! Bad days happen to aces, too.

Casey Mize (DET) @ LAA (W) – 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 95 pitches.

Bleeeegh. The normal story is I’m not thrilled about his lack of support for the four-seamer and splitter. Today’s story is that they tried really hard to be there and weren’t so terrible, but it wasn’t enough to mask the four-seamer returning 47% strikes at 94/95 mph (not 95/96). That simply can’t happen. It’s smart of Mize to adapt to the sinker and go six frames despite the chaos; that’s an achievement on its own, but yeah, this was a different Mize and one we really hope was just a one-off. Not that I’d love to chase Mize otherwise.

Shane Baz (TBR) vs KCR (L) – 5.2 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 93 pitches.

I watched this one and it was difficult at times. The four-seamer was coming in softer than usual and without precision, and the curve was far from the dominator we usually see. He also nearly got through this with 4 ER in six frames, but walked his final batter to load the bases, got the hook, and was served an extra three runs in the books. Sigh. It was a bad day, and he nearly made it somewhat digestible. Whatareyagonnado. I still love the fella.

 

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Bryan Woo vs. Jack Leiter – Now that’s a whole lot of fun.

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