Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup 5/2: Gunnar Hogthwarts The Marlins

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Friday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.

Gunnar Hoglund (ATH) @ MIA (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 81 pitches.

You’re likely familiar with my rule about MLB debuts. Don’t start them. And yet, I imagine some you saw Gunnar Hoglund matched up against the Marlins and you went for it. Huge props to you, the final line was glorious at 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 81 pitches (W). Sometimes I’d say Blame it on the Marlins and progress with our lives. This isn’t one of those times.

Hoglund was much more than I expected. His four-seamer was a beast at nearly 20″ of vert at 93/94 mph and flirting with seven feet of extension. Those marks could come down a bit in future outings, but they set a fantastic foundation for any secondaries to thrive, especially if he can nail the top of the zone or down-and-away to set up a slider or change.

It’s paired with a sinker that can get inside with 17-18″ of run (that’s great!), though it was 50/50 on getting on the inside edge or leaking over the plate. I dig it and hope he can iron out the polish a bit to prevent damage when he faces tougher lineups.

The secondaries are an interesting package. Hoglund’s changeup flashes brilliance with sub 0″ drop at times (you want changeups with “negative vert”, especially paired with a 20″ vert four-seamer!) and was a wicked offering in moments to both LHB and RHB. I see it as his primary secondary and I think we’ll some ridiculous whiff nights with it in the future.

Hoglund’s breakers are the oddity. His “slider” is really a cutter at 15″ of vert around 91 mph, saved mostly for LHB and decently spotted inside, and we saw a quartet of sweepers that have decent two-plane movement at 81 mph but fought against Hoglund all evening. I wonder what we’ll get of the pair moving forward as Hoglund’s seven feet of extension on the cutter makes it a legit weapon if harnessed properly.

I love this overall, even if I wish there was a touch more velocity and a better breaking ball out of the gate. The Athletics are sure to keep Gunnar in the rotation for the foreseeable future and with the Mariners up next, he’s an obvious pickup to find out more. Fantasy baseball is funner with Gunnar.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:

 

Dean Kremer (BAL) vs KCR (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 82 pitches.

Hot dang, look at you! That’s a Gold Star and one the Orioles so badly needed, with their filing cabinet bursting with unused stickers for the last month. The cutter was phenomenal to LHB, returning 71% strikes across 44% usage and a ton of weak contact. The absolute best command I’ve ever seen Kremer have along the outside edge with the pitch. So why doesn’t he throw it to LHB too? Because it’s not really a “cutter”, it’s really a slider at 86 mph. And we see pitchers all the time who can locate against RHB, but are incapable of replicating against LHB. It’s a different feeling having the batter on the opposite side, I get it. Anyway, Kremer is a Werewolf and we’re going to move on.

Robbie Ray (SFG) vs COL (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 86 pitches.

If there is one thing I love in this world, it’s Rockie Road. Whoa, the walks have disappeared! What happened?! It’s what we expected – Ray has finally started throwing the slider more and the pitch returned 74% strikes across 36% usage. Meanwhile the four-seamer was absurd at sitting at the very top of the zone nearly half the time. I’m so glad you’re back, now do this with a better changeup and curve and you’ll earn the Cy Young. No cap.

Max Fried (NYY) vs TBR (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 92 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. Not even the best sweeper in this one, and even with a 44% strike rate changeup, I loved its precision down-and-away to RHB. 3/9 whiffs is super fun and I’ll always get hyped for the slowball returning to form.

Bryan Woo (SEA) @ TEX (W) – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 87 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. I’m not sure what else there is to say at this point. His heaters are fantastic and this was the start we finally saw 30% breakers for a ton of strikes and plenty of success. He’s incredibly deserving and you should start him blindly moving forward.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) @ ATL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 91 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. The rare upstairs whiff on the four-seamer still teases me, while I’m thrilled to see Yoshi whip out eleven cutters for 73% strikes and 46% CSW. THAT’S WHAT’S UP. A new bridge pitch! No wonder the splitter was so dang deadly. I’m not sure if you realized (I didn’t) but Yamamoto now has a 0.90 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 32% strikeout rate across 40 innings. Yes, a lower ERA than WHIP. Incredible.

José Soriano (LAA) vs DET (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 94 pitches.

Atta boy Soriano. Despite the curve landing here and there, the sinker blasted the zone with splitters returning a fair number of whiffs. I’m still a little weirded out by Soriano’s somewhat feral sinker with his curveball living its own life + the slider disappearing for just three thrown total. Still a Toby and I want you to be so much more.

Ben Brown (CHC) @ MIL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 74 pitches.

A King Cole from Brown with six shutout frames is shocking, to say the least. I want to thank the Brewers for being absurdly passive all night, allowing Brown to return 17/45 called strikes on four-seamers mostly down the pipe, helping return a 47% CSW. The curve wasn’t even that great (3/27 whiffs) and the Brewers simply tried to let Brown beat himself up. It didn’t happen this time around, but don’t fret, Brown’s lack of third pitch (two changeups here don’t count) will do that for him in the future.

Brayan Bello (BOS) vs MIN (ND) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 102 pitches.

The changeup was brilliant, the sinker got outs, and the slider…yeah that one needs fixing. His four-seamer was also mixed in 19 times to egg batters into chasing upstairs and it worked for more than expected, but did it really need to be utilized nearly 20% of the time? I love seeing him at 102 pitches and nearly completing the seventh, though this feels a lot like a Toby than a Holly right now.

Tarik Skubal (DET) @ LAA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 73 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. That changeup was dumb – 10/26 whiffs and 89% strikes – and come on Tigers, let the man pitch! 73 pitches through six screams complete game and while the final score was 9-1, the Tigers scored eight in the ninth. Skubal ended the sixth down 1-0. Give the bullpen a rest for a day and let your ace seize the game, you know?

Joe Ryan (MIN) @ BOS (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 92 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. The four-seamer is still absurdly efficient with the first 2.0 HAVAA of the year for 12/48 whiffs and that’s your ball game. The wind-assisted sweeper from his last start wasn’t nearly as effective here, but it served him well + sinkers and splitters got in the action for outs. And guess what? We’re back to 94+ mph on the four-seamer. J.R. HATH BECOME SENIOR.

Hunter Greene (CIN) vs WSN (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 12 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 114 pitches.

Aces gonna ace with a Gallows Pole. That slider is straight up stupid as he continues to place it not just down, but inside to LHB for 11/38 whiffs. Meanwhile, the four-seamer is at 99 mph in concert with an 88% strike rate is the ultimate confidence of a STUD. I should have believed the spring metrics more. But you never know which will stick! Sure, but he went 16/16 sliders for strikes in a game. That’s not just a fluke. There’s always more to learn.

Merrill Kelly (ARI) @ PHI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 60 pitches.

For the second straight start, Kelly was pulled early due to cramps. Yes, he’s doing everything to try to figure it out, and let’s be happy he gave us value for as much as he did. I think he’s still underrated and a strong Toby arm with a good team behind him.

Grant Holmes (ATL) vs LAD (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 94 pitches.

Finally. What’s strange about this is not that The Real Estate Broker had his most promising outing against the mighty Dodgers. No, it’s that he did so without the curve. Just seven thrown for 2/7 whiffs and while it helped to LHB, we’re not close to 2024 levels of dual breaking pitches. The difference here was twofold. First, the slider was immaculate to LHB, landing down-and-inside just under the nitro zone consistently. It had help though, with our second step forward in an improved cutter at 92 mph. The pitch has over three inches extra drop than last year (the slider too!), and was a machine middle-in to LHB, setting up the slider underneath. It took the focus off the four-seamer (his worst pitch) and allowed it to earn called strikes glore, which was much needed to RHB as he left that thing over the plate a ton. We’re not out of the woods yet – the curve is still blegh and that cutter may not return + the four-seamer command needs work – but now that Holmes gets to host the Reds & Nats, I’m jumping back in. The situation is too good and that slider is stellar.

Jonathan Cannon (CHW) vs HOU (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 92 pitches.

Can we fire them now? With a 1.50 WHIP? I don’t think so. COME ON. I’m dying to do it too, but he deservedly was Singled Out with all of those sinkers over the plate. The day will come. Don’t worry. Sooooo he’s not legit? I’m afraid not.

Logan Allen (CLE) @ TOR (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 104 pitches.

A Philly for Allen seems okay, but the high WHIP and few strikeouts make this one a clear womp womp. Not that you held out any hope in the first place. He needs to take more advantage of his 1.6 HAVAA on the four-seamer if he’s to become something legit.

Jesús Luzardo (PHI) vs ARI (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 95 pitches.

He can’t be stopped. As Lance Brozdowski pointed out in his newsletter, Luzardo’s slider added a ton more vertical drop in this one, which I dig for the long haul to avoid the heart of the plate and allow mistakes as it had in the past, though he’ll need a little more time to figure out how to spot it with just one or two of his seven landing properly in this one. The sweeper is still the king of the show at 47% CSW and 77% strikes and to see his four-seamer nibble more than get carelessly thrown over the point is all cool with me. Koufax wasn’t kind and he was Singled Out here, and this is still the best version of Luzardo we’ve seen. Guess I gotta keep raising him up The List, eh?

Ryan Pepiot (TBR) @ NYY (L) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 14% CSW, 88 pitches.

Soooo, Pepiot had a sub 16% CSW on every one of his pitches. Say what. Yeaaaah. Dang Yankees. The fact Pepiot still managed to allow just 2 ER is a blessing (Thanks Koufax!) and despite this being a start against the Yankees, I need to lower Pepiot and figure out how to place him among the masses. He’s a Cherry Bomb but not of the Top 30 SP variety. Seriously, that slider was so bad and it’s starting to get frustrating watching him fail to command his arsenal regularly.

Dylan Cease (SDP) @ PIT (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 91 pitches.

Jeeeez Cease. 45% strikes with your fastball against the Pirates?! He kept missing too far upstairs and despite his slider looking fantastic and doing a ton of work, he can’t just throw those all game and expect pure success. 2/29 CSW on the four-seamer is outrageous. OUTRAGEOUS! I guess I need to remove the “AGA tag and make him the Cherry Bomb once again. So it goes.

Tyler Alexander (MIL) vs CHC (L) – 0.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 0 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 19 pitches.

Short arms = short starts. T-Lex opened (poorly) for Quinn Priester who was obliterated for seven ER in 4.1 frames. At least the slider is looking better down to RHB? That curve was so erratic and the sinker was far more chaotic than we’d like. Don’t go For The Quinn.

Michael Wacha (KCR) @ BAL (L) – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 83 pitches.

He had tossed six shutout frames with a fantastic pitch count, then allowed a two-run shot, a double and a walk, then got the hook with one run scoring. Uggggh. You still got the PQS, but hot dang, he had it. IT WAS RIGHT THERE. A 0.67 WHIP, tool. Welp, whatareyagonnado. Wacha is a legit Toby once again.

Clay Holmes (NYM) @ STL (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 92 pitches.

That’s a Dusty Donut for The Adobe, who gave you nothing except a W/PQS. Are you happy with that? Once again, he’s struggling to get you whiffs (peak was 13 in one game this year) and I really think he’s a HIPSTER at this point. I dunno, maybe he settles into being a Holly? Watching him pitch, I can feel the struggle within every inning. You don’t know what you’re going to get.

Chris Bassitt (TOR) vs CLE (ND) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 98 pitches.

Bassitt is still hyper reliant on the curve and still struggling. Just a 44% strike rate despite 24% usage and it’s pulling everything down. The sinker and cutter did their best with a few more splitters than usual, nearly making it to Bailey Special territory, but that dang hook needs to do its part. Come on Bassitt, make it happen.

Framber Valdez (HOU) @ CHW (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 87 pitches.

Blegh. The White Sox, Valdez. No need to go sub 50% strikes on the curve and just 55% strikes on the sinker. That ain’t it. At least the changeup had plenty of moments, even if it was hit the hardest. You’re such a Cherry Bomb.

Antonio Senzatela (COL) @ SFG (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 93 pitches.

Senz-A does what Senz-A does. Which is apparently have stupid good pitch separation to RHB with four-seamers up-and-in paired with sliders down-and-away. Not good enough stuff, of course, but cool to see that he’s trying his best, you know?

Mitch Keller (PIT) vs SDP (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 88 pitches.

Did he get Singled Out? Sure. Is that too surprising? Not at all.

Sonny Gray (STL) vs NYM (L) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 96 pitches.

Yikes. A rough day at the park for Gray with a poor curve, a terribly spotted four-seamer, and a laborious day overall. It’s one of those Gray days, brush it off and move on.

Valente Bellozo (MIA) vs ATH (L) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 15% CSW, 87 pitches.

Four walks and one strikeout. HAISTBMBWT?! I mean, there has to be butter for your bread, no?

Mitchell Parker (WSN) @ CIN (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 1 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 83 pitches.

Huh. Parker didn’t pitch nearly as poorly as the line suggests and got a bit squeezed + Koufax did him few favors. That said, the slider wasn’t anything like we’ve seen before and he’s not gaining any extra velocity. He’ll get the Cardinals next and he’s still a Toby in my book.

Jack Leiter (TEX) vs SEA (L) – 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 89 pitches.

Yikes. Another game with Leiter having the four-seamer but not enough to go with it. The heater did everything right, save for a few wasted ones, and I’m actually cool with a low 34% usage if the secondaries can do what they should. However, the changeup and slider were too hittable, and the curve…not great. The sinker also let him down (and should only be thrown to RHB, not sure why he insisted on so many to LHB) and I feel like we’re back in August last season. We know this will come together properly in time and Leiter will soar. We’re watching the development as it happens right now. With Fenway up next, you should be dropping Leiter. In fact, I’m totally fine not going near this at all and letting him be a HIPSTER on another squad. If you miss the breakout, you miss the breakout, right? It’s often better to have the peace of mind. Come on Nick, the Frizzle method! Yeaaaaah fair enough. Drop him now, keep an eye out, and I’m sure we’ll be back soon. That four-seamer is too big to fail.

 

Game of the Day

 

Roki Sasaki vs. Spencer Schwellenbach – Fun series, fun pitchers, Papa Johns.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

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(Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)