Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Saturday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Ben Brown (CHC) @ STL (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 82 pitches.
It’s tough to keep telling ya’ll that a pitcher doesn’t have the weapons to make it work, just to watch him continuously make it work. That’s been the story of Ben Brown since he rejoined the rotation, and he once again did what I’ve said he can’t keep doing via 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 82 pitches (W) in St. Louis.
In five starts, Brown now has a 1.73 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 29% strikeout rate through 26 innings pitched. Those are elite numbers, but they don’t change my assessment of him nor his outlook.
His signature pitch is an elite curve at 87-88 mph with -2″ of iVB and -3″ of iHB, which is awfully close to the average slider in both velocity and movement profile. He usually commands it effectively downstairs, but it landed too far below the zone on Saturday, leading to a sub-par 52% strike rate.
Without the “curve”, he’s forced to lean on his heaters – a 96-97 mph four-seamer with 16″ of iVB, mitigated by his steep approach angle (0.7 HAVAA) and high 45° arm angle, and a 96-97 mph sinker with 14″ of armside run. Nothing stands out about them other than their velocity and his ability to get them over the plate. He filled up the zone without a clear locational intent, leading to 79% strikes between them and fortunate batted ball luck (11/13 outs on balls in play despite 62% hard contact).
The wild card that not only saved him in this start, but could also have me buying in, is a 90-mph changeup he threw just eight times. The movement profile is concerningly inconsistent, but of the four that he was able to land low to lefties, all of them induced whiffs, and two returned strikeouts. I’m not inclined to believe that he’ll be able to suddenly uncover a consistent feel for the pitch, given his track record of never having it.
When you put it all together, Brown is a pitcher with an average gyro slider, Empty Velocity on a pair of heaters, and an untrustworthy changeup. He breaks the Huascar Rule, and there’s no perfect comp for him, but the first name that comes to mind when I think of slider-dominant arms without much support is Grant Holmes. I think it’s worth finding out if his hot streak will continue against the light-hitting Giants next, but with Coors on the horizon, I expect his lack of curveball precision to be exposed as the batted ball luck on his heaters subsides. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:
Bryan Woo (SEA) vs ARI (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 86 pitches.
Aces gonna ace for a King Cole. Isn’t it nice when he doesn’t serve up multiple dingers or get Singled Out? Outside of the six long balls he allowed in back-to-back starts, Woo hasn’t given up a homer in any of his 10 other starts this year. (View Game Card)
Ryan Feltner (COL) vs SFG (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 63 pitches.
This was a Still ILL in Coors, and Feltner still found a way to toss six shutout frames, making the Giants look more like dwarves. We saw a lot of cut-four-seamers for strikes, supported by secondaries that didn’t follow suit (54% strikes on sliders, changeups, and curves). Feltner is in Coors for his next two starts, and I wouldn’t be endorsing him even if they were on the road. (View Game Card)
Kumar Rocker (TEX) vs KCR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 85 pitches.
The Rockerstar showed up for an encore with his third scoreless start in his last four, earning him a Gold Star. The expansion of his arsenal is a step in the right direction, but the velocity reduction and lack of cutter command are steps in the opposite direction. It’s one step forward and two steps back. I know you pitch in Texas, but this is no time for line dancing! His sinker-slider focus doesn’t lend itself to success against a lefty-heavy Guardians lineup in his next start. (View Game Card)
J.T. Ginn (ATH) vs NYY (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 80 pitches.
This was a clear Do Not Start, as Ginn was coming off a six-walk performance and was slated to face the Bronx Bombers in Sacré Verde. That’s a recipe for a poisonous concoction that didn’t faze a pitcher with a toxic liquid for a surname. Changeups were on point, staining the bottom rung of the zone, to lead his arsenal with six whiffs. The rest of his arsenal was grateful that the slowball did most of the work on the group project. His fastball variants avoided the heart of the plate vs LHBs, but hung out in the middle of the zone a little too much vs RHBs, while sliders were as inconsistent as ever. It’s great to see him recover so well in a tough matchup, allowing us to trust him as a streamer against bottom-half offenses, but he’s proven that there’s still an observable floor that makes him someone not worth holding in standard leagues. (View Game Card)
Sonny Gray (BOS) @ CLE (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 92 pitches.
It was clear skies and Sonny weather as Commander Gray had his arsenal in check. Quadrant roll call! Yes, sir! Armside? Changeups, sir! Low? Curveballs, reporting for duty! Low and gloveside? Sweepers, accounted for! Gloveside? Cutters, present! Upstairs? Four-seamers, sir! Move out! If he deploys the same troop @NYY next, we should see a similar result. (View Game Card)
Seth Lugo (KCR) @ TEX (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 90 pitches.
The San Francisco Creamery must be Lugo’s favorite restaurant, because he enjoys a kitchen sink more than anyone I know. How do you even eat that much ice cream?! Don’t act like you don’t want to attempt to finish it by yourself. The velo on Lugo’s signature curve continues to drop precipitously, calling into question his entire approach, as he features it more than any other offering and fails to command it (56% strikes). He made up for it with 77% strikes on his six other pitches, and his ability to command and mix his pitches like an alchemist (shoutout Adam Ottavino for the perfect description) allows him to get away without the best stuff. He’s a 15-team Toby and an occasional streamer in standard leagues because of it. (View Game Card)
Roki Sasaki (LAD) vs PHI (ND) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 84 pitches.
Ooooo boy, have I been getting pumped about the Sasaki breakout. We’ve seen so many different paths to success recently. First, it was harder splitters, then the incorporation of forkballs (which I think are just the old, slower splitters), then impeccable slider command, and finally improved four-seamer shape last time out. Now, we have Sasaki showing up with an extra 1.5 mph on his heater to sit 98-99 mph while maintaining the improved 16-17″ of iVB. The increased velo wasn’t restricted to his fastball, as sliders, splitters, and forkballs (they’re back!) all sat a tick up. I can’t contain my excitement! Each of these paths has proven successful on its own, and if Sasaki can combine them all, he’ll become the elite arm he was in NPB. In any start, he can follow one path to a moderate level of success, or combine multiple paths to achieve domination. I’m going all in on Sasaki with LAA up next. (View Game Card)
Parker Messick (CLE) vs BOS (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 93 pitches.
Messick has been so consistent this year, with just two starts producing more than two earned runs. Despite sitting a tick up at 94-95 mph on four-seamers, he returned fewer than five strikeouts for just the second time, looking a lot more like the Toby end of his Holly label. We can blame that on an unlucky 33% per-batter PAR and move on, looking forward with fondness to his next outing @TEX. (View Game Card)
Christian Scott (NYM) vs MIA (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 96 pitches.
In a rematch against the Marlins, Scott skewered the fish again, tying his season high with eight punchouts. I would’ve loved to be more pumped about an expanded arsenal, but this was 79% four-seamers and sweepers. They fulfilled their jobs admirably, each returning 31% CSW and strike rates north of 60%, preventing Scott from testing anything else out, as not one of his other offerings eclipsed 7% usage. I want him to get comfortable throwing cutters and splitters so he has a backup plan when one of his signature offerings doesn’t show up or he faces a LHB-heavy lineup. I’m still down to start him in San Diego next, but I need to see more development to be properly pumped. I want to be pumped! (View Game Card)
Anthony Kay (CHW) vs DET (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 84 pitches.
Oh Kay! You keep commanding effectively with an aversion to the heart of the zone, allowing you to get away without impressive stuff or the feel for your changeup. That’s now a 1.95 ERA and a 20% strikeout rate across his last six starts, and I hope you got yourself a piece of the cake before it was gone. Now he heads to Philadelphia before getting the Braves and Yankees afterward. Welp, this was fun while it lasted! (View Game Card)
Trey Yesavage (TOR) @ BAL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 7 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 92 pitches.
Yesavage had terrible LOB luck in his last outing, but the pendulum swung all the way back the other way, as Yesavage issued seven free passes, and only allowed one to score. Not very savage of you, bro. You’re tempting me to call you Nosavage when you lose the command of your entire arsenal, and nobody wants that. Sub-55% strikes on everything, with just 6/21 splitters landing in the bottom half or lower. His volatility is screaming in our faces, intimidating us to avoid starting him @ATL next. That’ll be a questionable start on my streamer rankings. (View Game Card)
Kyle Leahy (STL) vs CHC (ND) – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 78 pitches.
Leahy said, “What if I throw all six of my pitches an equal amount?” The Cubs responded, “I mean, sure, that doesn’t sound very efficient, though.” He threw strikes, but his locations were all over the place, with donut command vs LHBs and some sort of AI Jackson Pollock painting vs RHBs. It worked for four frames, but the Cardinals yanked him as soon as he allowed his first run in the fifth. The extension is the only endearing thing about Leahy’s profile. (View Game Card)
Brandon Young (BAL) vs TOR (ND) – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 86 pitches.
With a solid foundation chiseled from an elite four-seamer with 94-95 mph velo and 18-19″ iVB, Young only needs a moderate level of support from his mediocre secondaries to find some success. It’s a lite version of Ryne Nelson. Curveballs were the sidekicks here, constantly catching batters off guard to steal plenty of called strikes, allowing his heater to dominate above the zone. The rest of his arsenal isn’t much to write home about, but hectic splitters, armside sinkers, and gloveside sliders did their best to keep batters guessing like a bad artist during a round of Pictionary. Young has had just one start with more than three earned runs, and I’m starting to trust him as a streamer. I think we can take the risk that one of his secondaries shows up to support his heater in a rematch @TOR next. (View Game Card)
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) @ LAD (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 95 pitches.
The opponent doesn’t matter to the Cherry Bomb, who just needs to avoid battling himself to succeed in any situation. Yeah, the 1.69 WHIP is less than ideal, but we’ll take the 3.38 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning. This was good Luzardo, and we should be happy he showed up in Hollywood. For the record, “bad” Luzardo has an 11.37 ERA in four starts, while “good” Luzardo has a 1.50 ERA in eight starts. The latter version appears twice as often, but the former is twice as frustrating. (View Game Card)
Peter Lambert (HOU) vs MIL (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 90 pitches.
After a pair of eight-strikeout performances to begin his Astros tenure, it appeared we had a post-Coors sensation on our hands. In six starts since then, Lambert has looked more like a 12-team Toby, providing solid ratios (3.93 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) with underwhelming strikeout totals (19% strikeout rate). His lack of secondary command (52% strikes on changeups, sliders, and curves) limits the offerings with which he should be inducing whiffs and ending at-bats. He’s a fine streamer, but the ceiling isn’t worth the hold in standard leagues. (View Game Card)
Martín Pérez (ATL) @ CIN (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 81 pitches.
Not even Hotlanta in Great American Smallpark was strong enough to fell Pérez. What an unbelievable hot streak he’s been on, fueled by command of sinkers, changeups, cutters, and curveballs. Who would’ve guessed that he’d have a 2.79 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 20% strikeout rate through the season’s first two months? This Vargas Rule could end at any moment, and I don’t want to be the guy jumping into the conga line just for it to end immediately. Embarrassing! (View Game Card)
Reid Detmers (LAA) @ TBR (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 92 pitches.
Detmers peaked, fanning 14 last time out, but fell back to Earth without the supporting weapons to make up for his slider command wavering (56% strikes). That’s the biggest concern with Detmers, as his two-pitch combo is elite…when it’s commanded well. He’s never maintained a prolonged feel for his slider, and his changeup and curve have only shown glimpses of being trusted backup dancers. No! It’s right foot over left foot, jump, then clap. We’re never going to be ready for the recital in Hollywood next week! (View Game Card)
Tyler Phillips (MIA) @ NYM (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 72 pitches.
The Marlins are stretching Phillips out after a couple of successful months as a swingman. His sinker showed up with elite 19-20″ of armside run, and they weren’t too unwieldy to prevent him from finding the zone (67% strikes), while splitters landed in the bottom half consistently, surprisingly supporting as a strike pitch (74% strikes) instead of your typical whiff pitch. I’m going to need to see more development from his breakers before I can endorse this, as their inconsistency prevents him from being more than a volatile, splitter-reliant arm, with a low strikeout ceiling. Curveballs were too low with just 2/13 strikes, and the inconsistent movement on his sweeper has me making the face you make when you finally pass the car on the freeway that forgot to turn its blinker off. (View Game Card)
Foster Griffin (WSN) vs SDP (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 90 pitches.
This is about as Toby as it gets. I used to be a Foothill Griffin, which I feel is somewhat related to Foster Griffin. I just haven’t put the pieces together yet to figure out the connection. Give me another week. I’ll hopefully have it solved after we stream him @ARI next. (View Game Card)
Brady Singer (CIN) vs ATL (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 94 pitches.
I’ll abstain from joking about Singer’s initials and will instead continue to complain about his reliance on his sinker and sliders. Wait…guys, look! Is that who I think it is? No way. Cutters! You’re back! And you returned with 73% strikes. Ugh, the rest of the arsenal just gave up hope with 47% strikes. We would’ve put in more effort if we knew you were still alive. Singer can become an occasional streamer if he recovers the command of his one-two punch while incorporating the lefty-neutralizing cutter. I need to see him do that at least once before we let him sing at our club. (View Game Card)
Framber Valdez (DET) @ CHW (L) – 6.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 89 pitches.
The deciding factor is always Valdez’s curveball, and it reappeared with enough strikes to set him up for success. It was all coming together as he went six frames with just two runs and three hits, but the Tigers got greedy, sending him out for the seventh at just 74 pitches. He served up a homer to the first batter he faced, then a double, nearly escaped the frame with a pair of outs on balls in play, but the final batter he faced roped a single to right field to score the fourth run. Careful, Icarus. (View Game Card)
Michael King (SDP) @ WSN (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 77 pitches.
King was cruising through six frames, with exceptional changeup command and just one run allowed on a solo shot, reaching the seventh in just 64 pitches. It all fell apart there, as he allowed a single, a fielder’s choice, a walk, and a HBP to force in a run. He was subsequently lifted from the game and watched all three inherited runners come around to score. Careful, Icarus. (View Game Card)
Ryne Nelson (ARI) @ SEA (L) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 99 pitches.
A stretch of six batters between the second and third frames, during which four homers were hit, was the only knock against him in this one. Yeah, but it was a big knock. Like me with an armful of groceries, kicking the door of my apartment to get my girlfriend to let me in. This was a HR/FB aberration that will sort itself out with more fortunate results in future starts. This doesn’t alter Nelson’s outlook. (View Game Card)
Adrian Houser (SFG) @ COL (L) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 92 pitches.
Yeah, this was Coors, but Houser’s succeeded, what, four times this year? And even those starts came with a sub-15% strikeout rate. The ceiling is too low to chase, and the floor is lava. Someone’s going to bash their head jumping from couch to couch. (View Game Card)
Ryan Weathers (NYY) @ ATH (L) – 6.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 10 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 107 pitches.
A Gallows Pole with double-digit strikeouts and five earned runs? What happened? Oh no, not another one…Let me guess, Careful, Icarus? Weathers entered the seventh at 92 pitches and nearly escaped with a dominant outing, but a two-out walk followed by a two-run homer ruined what was nearly a gorgeous line in Sacré Verde. Changeups were the leading contributor to his award, inducing 10 swings and misses against a righty-heavy lineup. Please keep doing that so I don’t have to worry that this career-high workload is going to lead to your downfall. I just want the Weathers to be good! (View Game Card)
Brandon Sproat (MIL) @ HOU (L) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 95 pitches.
The way Brewers’ manager Pat Murphy talked about Sproat after this rough outing has me thinking the club is going to shake up the rotation. The command of his trio of fastball variants is far from Rasmussen-esque, and his breakers have failed to show up to suggest he’s making an effort to try something new. His inefficiency is astonishing, as he’s completed the fifth just three times in 11 outings. This ain’t it. (View Game Card)
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) vs LAA (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 70 pitches.
Not even Drew was Rasmussen-esque on Saturday. However, he settled in with three innings of one-run ball after a first-inning bases-loaded jam ended in a grand slam, exhausting him and souring his line. This was a one-inning bland if there ever was one, and we’re getting right back on this horse and riding him to Miami for his next start. (View Game Card)
Bailey Ober (MIN) @ PIT (L) – 4.2 IP, 7 ER, 12 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 97 pitches.
Ober’s still throwing sub-89, failing to max out north of the 90 mph threshold. I don’t care how tall he is; that’s not going to work. (View Game Card)
Mitch Keller (PIT) vs MIN (ND) – 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 77 pitches.
I think we’ve reached the point in the season where it’s okay to give up on MKUltra. He’s brainwashed too many into trusting him, and justice needs to be served. With @ATL, LAD, and Sacré Verde in his next three starts, I don’t think I’ll receive any push back. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Spencer Strider vs. Nick Lodolo – I want to see Strider continue to succeed and Lodolo maintain command of his secondaries.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)
