Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup: Little Poteet

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Saturday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.

Cody Poteet (NYY) @ SFG (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 78 pitches.

My theory is that the SP Roundup’s greatest value is highlighting starts from arms you know very little about and Cody Poteet fits the bill perfectly. With Clarke Schmidt on the mend, Poteet stepped up for the Yankees against the Giants, going strong for 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 78 pitches. Yes, he could become the next interesting value arm for deeper leagues.

There are a few things I like about Poteet. His command is generally sound, nibbling around the edges with his sinker and four-seamer, while his changeup and sweeper often avoid mistakes. The slowball can be a vicious offering down-and-away to LHB, while the sweeper works well against RHB, making for a pair of weapons to keep both sides at bay. Like Schmidt in March, Poteet lacks a proper plan of attack against LHB as his four-seamer is awfully mediocre across the board and his sinker needs to dot the down-and-away edge to work properly.

All of this is to say Poteet is a solid Toby on a winning club. His only mistake of the day was a five-pitch walk followed by a sinker that landed in the bleachers on the very next pitch. I wouldn’t expect a high strikeout rate or even the most sparkling of ratios, but 5/6 frames of ~2 ER with a good Win chance seem likely. Play the matchups (not the Dodgers this week, for example!) and get the value.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:

 

Michael Lorenzen (TEX) @ MIA (W) – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 98 pitches.

Am I the fool for not leaning into this Lorenzen start harder? Probably. He’s just so blegh. But fine, he has the ability to go six frames with a solid offense behind him and enough of a kitchen sink to make his overall stuff better. FINE. I guess he’s a Toby, making a start against the Giants worthwhile.

Bryce Miller (SEA) vs LAA (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 83 pitches.

A King Cole is a lovely sight for Miller, and I wish I had better news about his secondaries. I mean, they weren’t terrible, but we’re still waiting for something to appear and let Bryce truly take the next step, instead of just pumping heaters against a poor offense and feeling great about it. That’s not totally fair, Nick. You’re right, Miller did avoid the heart of the plate super well here and if he can throw fastballs like this all day, he’ll continue to succeed. Still, y’all know he’s still missing that extra element of a reliable breaker (HE NEEDS A CUTTER) to earn strikes with and maybe even some whiffs. Maybe next season…

Ranger Suárez (PHI) vs STL (ND) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 23 pitches.

It’s okay y’all, he took a comebacker to the hand and left the game early. He may miss a start to play it safe, but he’ll be back after that. Don’t you say that the Vargas Rule ends when there is any interruption? Oh no. I do…but we have to think Suárez’s changeup is here to stay, right? RIGHT?!

Framber Valdez (HOU) vs MIN (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 85 pitches.

Ayyyy, we got good Valdez! Well, good results Valdez. What does that mean? It means he got sinker called strikes and outs. In fact, his curve and changeup were pretty dang mediocre in this one, without a cutter or slider in sight. We got the good results sinker (with fewer mistakes than usual) and it’s what has made him a QS darling over the years. It’s the standard affair for Valdez, and I got no idea what we get next time.

Mitch Keller (PIT) @ TOR (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 106 pitches.

Ummm, that’s five starts of brilliance from Keller now – 1.34 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 33% K rate, 6% BB rate – and against some solid teams along the way. How is he doing it? Honestly? This is what it was last year – really good command along the edges with cutters, sinkers, breakers, and four-seamers. He occasionally has some slip-ups but this game against the Jays and many of his others were the same. It’s what I loved about him last year during his run, and it’s also what drove me up the wall when it fell apart in the summer. He’s a Vargas Rule plus as we roll with it until the command slips twice in a row and I’ll continue to watch with joy as he works both sides of the plate effectively for as long as he can do it.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs COL (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 101 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. A little Singled Out and mostly on everything but the four-seamer, which is still living in y-mLoc%, leading to a sub 10% SwStr on the pitch. Why are you settling for less? One day, y’all. ONE DAY.

Garrett Crochet (CHW) @ MIL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 103 pitches.

It sure feels like he deserves the AGA tag, doesn’t he? Yeah. Aces gonna ace. It’s been absolutely bonkers, even if he’s mostly two-pitch these days with four-seamers and cutters. It is a BSB approach, though, and that’s getting more out of both pitches as a result. Imagine if he actually had that change and slider too…

Cooper Criswell (BOS) vs DET (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 83 pitches.

Cooper did his thing once again – low sinkers and changeups with sweepers and cutters helping as they do. Nothing new, nothing surprising. Good stuff, Coop.

Justin Steele (CHC) vs CIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 98 pitches.

Yikes. His command was atrocious again, living far too much in the zone or too far out of it and you hate to see it. Also, he was a tick down on both offerings and all I want to do is to properly be on the Steele train, but the man is not helping, like he’s watching me run along the platform and refusing to extend his hand after I threw my luggage on board. STOP LOOKING AT YOUR POCKET WATCH AND HELP ME.

Slade Cecconi (ARI) @ NYM (ND) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 71 pitches.

Sure, not bad for Slade across just 71 pitches. There’s not much here to latch onto for fantasy relevance, though. Maybe he’ll go 5-6 frames of decent production, but the ceiling just isn’t there to chase.

Ben Lively (CLE) vs WSN (W) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 86 pitches.

Another solid matchup, another solid stream. But he’s over 20% rostered now. YOU GET MY POINT. And now we keep holding for the Marlins and things are lovely. Sorry for the Philly for those who needed that last out.

Mitchell Parker (WSN) @ CLE (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 98 pitches.

After going 8/22 whiffs with his slider against Atlanta, Parker threw…one against Cleveland. ONE. He faced both LHB and RHB, but even if he didn’t, that pitch should be down-and-in against RHB, too. But the splitter was good! Yeah, 5/12 whiffs is lovely, and in general, he pitched well with about 15% of his pitches being “dude, no. That’s so far out of the zone.” Gotta get those numbers down to like 5% and we’re golden.

Randy Vásquez (SDP) @ KCR (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 81 pitches.

I’m pretty surprised to see six whiffs on his four-seamer with its overall mediocre shape/velo, but he spotted them decently well and at the right time. There’s a world where Vásquez has everything working properly and uses his kitchen sink to the fullest and leaves a hint of upside on a given night. We’re not there yet.

Robert Gasser (MIL) vs CHW (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 77 pitches.

Blegh. A pair of homers messed up Gasser, ruining a decent start against the CrySox. The secondaries weren’t exceptional and found the heart of the plate far too often, while it was mostly sinker (not four-seamer), preventing the high whiff marks upstairs. Not the best version of Gasser at all. I’m still down to take the shot against the Tigers, though.

Logan Webb (SFG) vs NYY (L) – 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 108 pitches.

The Yankees are too dang hot right now. And Webb’s sweeper wasn’t nearly as good on this day. So it goes. Keep starting him.

Ryan Weathers (MIA) vs TEX (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 11 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 96 pitches.

Hot dang, look at you! Yeah, the ratios are bad (it’s the Rangers) but eleven strikeouts with a Gallows Pole is something else, marking four straight starts that have turned heads. It’s a near 50% strikeout rate in that time with a sub 2.00 ERA and 0.81 WHIP across 27.0 IP and with Cleveland up next, he feels like a must add. That said, this truly was on the back of 11/37 changeup whiffs with a middling sweeper and a fastball he still wrestled with. I’m not ready to say this changeup will be there consistently, but it’s a Vargas Rule until it goes away.

Sonny Gray (STL) @ PHI (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 10 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 86 pitches.

Aces gonna have a poor first frame and rebound in the best way after. He’s so good at sticking glove-side with his cutter and sweeper. We good.

Cal Quantrill (COL) @ LAD (L) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 95 pitches.

Ah. The Dodgers were clearly ready for the splitter and went up hacking at it for contact on 18/21 swings. Meanwhile, the sinker got laced as well and that’s your ball game. So it’s over? Probably not. He gets the Cardinals next and I’d reckon the same approach against that lineup would lead to far better results, or at least not a HAISTBMBWT?! I’m not jumping off quite yet.

Sean Manaea (NYM) vs ARI (L) – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 105 pitches.

Those ratios are rough, but ten strikeouts?! It reminds me of the Andrew Cashner and Noah Syndergaard experience back-to-back in like 2017 or whatever. You know if you know. He got those on a few sweepers and sinkers and I just can’t buy the man becoming a strikeout fiend now. An easy avoid against the Phils.

Reese Olson (DET) @ BOS (L) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 95 pitches.

The slider is dope and he allowed a pair of longballs. So it goes, we still love the guy.

Yusei Kikuchi (TOR) vs PIT (L) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 89 pitches.

Nooooo. The glorious run of Kikuchi is hitting a wall. His velocity wasn’t the issue like last time, but instead, all of his mistakes down the pipe got smacked. The bigger issue is what we’ve been seeing for a few weeks now – Kikuchi’s slider effectiveness. He shelved the changeup in favor of curves and sliders after his first outing and it was clearly the right call, but lately, the slider hasn’t been reliable for Kikuchi. We saw just four sliders here and it changed the whole approach. I have to suggest benching Kikuchi for a start against the Orioles next and see if the slider returns into the mix – and hey, it’s the LHP-blastin’ Orioles after all.

Alec Marsh (KCR) vs SDP (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 80 pitches.

The four-seamer wasn’t there, the breakers were worse, and this was a game of “H’ok fastballs. I know it’s tough out there, but we need you to land in the zone and get ourselves through this. Just remember, there’s pizza waiting for you after. Is it from Aromi? Kid, it’s Chuck E. Cheese.” Those heaters are too stuck up, I tell ya. Treat Marsh like a Cherry Bomb if you like, he’ll get the Mariners next and it’s certainly possible the four-seamer comes through there.

Joe Ryan (MIN) @ HOU (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 95 pitches.

Aces gonna…oh no. No no no. What. He allowed home runs. Like two? Nope. Three? …nope. COME ON. The big regression of ’23 came on the back of the longball and Ryan just allowed four home runs to the Astros. Ugh. Watching all four, two were off Yordan’s bat (one down the pipe, another a slider inside that didn’t get far enough), one off a 3-2 pitch to Tucker down the pipe, and the fourth to…Abreu. Away and off the plate in 3-2. In short, some bad pitches, that got hit by some great hitters (and one meh hitter), and we move on to tomorrow.

Hunter Greene (CIN) @ CHC (ND) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 Hits, 5 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 111 pitches.

Oh cool. We’re back to Cherry Bomb land. Just one hit allowed on his heater but a sub 60% strike rate, while the slider hovered 50% strikes itself and the Cubs took advantage of their baserunners. Strikes y’all. You gotta have ’em. I think you’re committed at this point and shouldn’t react to one of these. I sure don’t want to go back to calling him a HIPSTER. Please Greene.

Reid Detmers (LAA) @ SEA (L) – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 90 pitches.

The Angels demoted Detmers to Triple-A after this game. Yeah. What a turn of events since his first three starts of the year and it’s incredibly disheartening. It is the best four-seamer he’s ever had…except it sat just 93 mph in this one. His slider went 8/17 strikes, his curve is unreliable, and the changeup held a 47% CSW but wasn’t spotted with a purpose. Just get the guy in a better organization, y’all. PLEASE FREE THE MAN.

Kyle Bradish (BAL) vs TBR (ND) – 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 76 pitches.

BLEGH. You just earned your AGA tag and this is how you repay us? He couldn’t locate his sinker well and his slider and curve got too much of the plate, too often. He’s not this guy and I’d expect a rebound against the Jays. I believe.

Aaron Brooks (OAK) @ ATL (ND) – 4.1 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 79 pitches.

Brooks ain’t it. Stick to the streams you’re used to.

Chris Sale (ATL) vs OAK (ND) – 4.0 IP, 8 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 71 pitches.

I’m sorry what. The Athletics got to his fastball over the plate (two HRs!) + sliders that got too much of the plate down-and-middle. This was a Singled Out with a pair of longballs by the Athletics. This felt like being stoked about your weekend trip to Canada and finding out they lost your luggage when you arrived. Doesn’t mean you’re not going to be excited for the next trip. Whatareyagonnado.

Taj Bradley (TBR) @ BAL (L) – 3.1 IP, 9 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 79 pitches.

Oh, there he is. Funny how regression works. Sigh. So many terribly spotted curves and splitters and the home runs returned in full force. This is the life you’re living with Bradley, the classic Cherry Bomb. I don’t think he’ll get rid of the tag this year.

 

Game of the Day

 

Griffin Canning vs. Luis Castillo – Can Canning take advantage of the Mariners? And who doesn’t want to watch Castillo dominance?

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)