Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Tuesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Shane Baz (BAL) @ BOS (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 94 pitches.
The biggest challenge we face early in the season is determining when to drop a player and when to hold with the expectation of removing their TIARA in the near future. After a 5.48 ERA and 1.56 WHIP with a sub 20% strikeout rate through his first eight games on May 9th, Shane Baz was a very clear drop. He hadn’t made any significant changes to his approach that would suggest a better path ahead.
However, his last four games have been a little different, tallying just 7 ER in 27 frames, leading to a lovely stretch of a 2.33 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and a 23% strikeout rate. I wasn’t convinced after his initial three (two came against his former Tampa Bay colleagues), but this start had one significant improvement: his curveball.
It wasn’t the shape or velocity, but simply his feel. He boosted its usage to 42% as he continuously landed it down and in the zone for a 72% strike rate and 9/39 whiffs. His four-seamer also did the right thing – it stayed out of the way, mostly hanging out at the top of the zone or well above it, while the sinker landed inside to RHB with ease. These are good things.
I’m not sure it’s the start to get me back on board, though. He was a tick down on his four-seamer and changeup, the latter slowball was erratic, the cutter was a called strike aide and not much else, and there’s still no major shift in the pitches themselves. Is it good that he leaned more on the curve and located it well? Absolutely. I want to see something more than his best pitch being his best pitch to force me to buy in moving forward. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:
Jack Flaherty (DET) @ TBR (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 94 pitches.
That’s three straight starts of 6+ strikeouts after doing so just once in six starts prior. Is it truly time to get on board? Naaaaaah. Just seven whiffs and the 18″ vert is a product of domed Tropicana. Not even his secondaries were exceptional, returning sub 60% strike rates and just 4/41 whiffs. That’s drryyyyyy. (View Game Card)
Gage Jump (ATH) @ CHC (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 85 pitches.
Wow. There’s your Gold Star, not because I didn’t expect any shot of Jump doing well, but that he did so well with his arsenal to go a full seven frames in hitter-friendly June Wrigley. His four-seamer returned 92% strikes at 97 mph (harder than the debut!) at a fantastic 1.7 HAVAA and consistently upstairs to RHB. That was the real story, with his slider and curve earning strikes but failing to be a true game-changer as they failed to put batters away, or extend at-bats to get to two-strikes. All secondaries induced 7/8 outs on balls in play in concert with just three whiffs, and it’s an area of improvement for Jump. Just imagine if his changeup could sit under the heater instead of going 2/8 strikes. Now with @HOU, Rockie Road and LAA up next, I’m kinda tempted to give it a whirl. That said, it’s a poor home park and the secondaries aren’t reliable quite yet. It may not matter if the heater can sit upstairs this easily. I’d go for it in Houston and take it from there. (View Game Card)
Noah Cameron (KCR) @ CIN (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 87 pitches.
Yessssss. That’s a string of starts from Cameron with his 2025 command and it’s getting more and more believable that Cameron has righted the ship. With @MIN, HOU, STL in front of him, it might be time to go for it. Don’t expect these strikeouts, though – his per-batter putaway rate was an absurd 67% here (normally 40-45%). (View Game Card)
Kyle Harrison (MIL) vs SFG (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 12 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 106 pitches.
I’m sure you want the AGA label after this one. I’m tempted to, but there are two reasons not to: 1) Coors is next and this was the Giants. It’s better to see him prove it there first. 2) This featured more low fastballs than intended + lots of donut command on the curveball with a poor changeup. The results are hilariously good. The process…not as polished as we saw in other starts. If he kills it in Coors, he’ll get the AGA label, alright? (View Game Card)
Jameson Taillon (CHC) vs ATH (L) – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 99 pitches.
Ayyyyy, it’s nice to see Taillon have a great outing, and it was a day of absolutely nailing his cutter and sweeper down-and-away to RHB, with changeups cooking to LHB. I’m surprised we didn’t get more heaters inside to RHB and LHB as a whole (nearly everything was middle or away), but when it’s working, it’s working. Definitely makes me a little tempted to try against the Giants for two up next, especially in 15-teamers. (View Game Card)
Tomoyuki Sugano (COL) @ LAA (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 96 pitches.
I gotta hand it to Sugano. To hold a sub 4.00 ERA is no easy task for a Colorado SP and he’s doing everything he can, from whipping out the kitchen sink to getting his head in the game during his road starts, to hold a 3.98 ERA through 12 starts this season. And look! BSB with high four-seamers and a boatload of splitters, sweepers, and sliders down! It wasn’t great, but he squeezed every last ounce he had. I gotta appreciate him for it. (View Game Card)
Aaron Nola (PHI) vs SDP (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 95 pitches.
The curveball cooked, the fastballs avoided the center, and look at that. The pitcher who led me to invent CSW nearly ten years ago earns a King Cole. Those were the days. That curveball was SO GOOD. Can you throw that 40% of the time every game? And also sit 93 mph on your fastballs? You may be shocked, but I prefer that over the 91 mph heaters we’ve seen a lot this year. You’re back on the menu against the White Sox, but just as a Questionable Start. The floor is still there. (View Game Card)
Randy Vásquez (SDP) @ PHI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 80 pitches.
He’s a Toby. In the last seven starts, Randy has returned double-digit whiffs once. This is after doing so in each of his first four outings. Randy, you said I had a friend in you. You even did it with a lovely melody and a catchy piano riff. Was that just a story? Were you toying with me?! (View Game Card)
Eric Lauer (LAD) @ ARI (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 70 pitches.
Yes, he’s back at 92 mph, but it’s still just 2/24 whiffs on heaters, leading to a HAISTBMBWT?! This. Ain’t. It. (View Game Card)
Bryce Elder (ATL) vs TOR (W) – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 103 pitches.
Despite his disaster last time out, you held on him and gave him a mulligan. A slightly better PQS certainly is a vote of confidence as we roll up our sleeves and dive in for another start or two with the Pirates and Mets. At least I can get on board with his four-seamer, cutter, sinker, and slider command this time around. (View Game Card)
Andrew Abbott (CIN) vs KCR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 105 pitches.
A VPQS sure doesn’t inspire confidence moving forward.That said, looking at this one is like looking at classic Abbott – sweepers in the right spot, changes lining the outside edge, fastballs and curveballs running amok. Last year, we did see the heater land upstairs more often and it was a problem here (1/43 whiffs?!), while the curve was hung a little more as well. He’s close, y’all, and now gets a Padres offense that quivers to southpaws. (View Game Card)
Dustin May (STL) vs TEX (ND) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 90 pitches.
Wow, he’s on a heater. But this wasn’t an all-around great start! Dude had eight strikeouts in four shutout frames before getting Singled Out, albeit, the last hit was an RBI double that came off a middle-middle 1-0 changeup down the pipe to the red-hot Joc (can’t do that), then the sixth saw a run on a walk, groundout advance, poor cutter over the middle for an RBI single. That’s Baseball, Suzyn. What is the catalyst for all these strikeouts? The extra 1-2″ of vert on his four-seamer with legit precision upstairs in two-strike counts that led to six strikeouts. HOT DANG. I like that May also did his best to figure out his sweeper in this one, though it was ultimately his downfall with a low 54% strike rate as his most thrown pitch. He’s figuring things out, y’all. I’m streaming him against the Mets on Tuesday and I think you should too. (View Game Card)
Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs NYM (W) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 99 pitches.
It was Benge eating up Gilbert’s arsenal for two HRs, marking all three runs scored. Otherwise? Smooth sailing, even with just two baserunners through his first five frames and easily earning a Gallows Pole. Sigh. We just can’t have it all, can we? All that said, this was the best execution from Gilbert all season. Four-seamers were high and actually returned whiffs (23%!), sliders were middle/down, and splitters stayed low. Okay, too low and maybe not the greatest splitter execution, but you get the idea. Just having a BSB from four-seamers and sliders is great to see. (View Game Card)
Bubba Chandler (PIT) @ HOU (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 91 pitches.
Wait, a boring start from Chandler?! In fact, he allowed a two-run shot in his first two batters, then settled down for five productive frames after, including a laborious third frame with an error and wild pitch that worsened his line. I wish I had proper improvements to report outside of fewer walks due to a 75% strike four-seamer, but alas, the secondaries were competitive, but terrible at finding strikes – not one breaker between sliders, curves, and sweepers returned a strike rate above 44%, combining for a 37% clip between them. Oh jeez. You cannot start him against Hotlanata up next. (View Game Card)
Trevor McDonald (SFG) @ MIL (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 87 pitches.
I’m still not entirely sure why McDonald is featuring 54% sinkers. His changeup was much better in this one at 64% swtrikes and a handful of whiffs + the slider, while carrying a low 50% strike rate, boasted 8/26 whiffs and a 35% CSW. Sure, he walked a few batters, but all five hits came off his sinker (and two of his three walks, too). It doesn’t add up. Now that he heads to Wrigley, I wouldn’t test the waters (you don’t want to start pitchers there). (View Game Card)
Michael Soroka (ARI) vs LAD (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 100 pitches.
All hits came against LHB, including the inside fastball to Freeman in the first. I’d say four of these pitches were stellar on the inside edge, while a hanging curve and change were deserved – A terrible 0-0 changeup to Ohtani for an RBI triple, and a poor 1-2 curve that landed in the nitro zone instead of the backfoot. Otherwise, Soroka pitched pretty dang well against the tough Dodgers crew and I’m starting him without fear. (View Game Card)
Kevin Gausman (TOR) @ ATL (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 96 pitches.
Hotlanata was effective at knocking in their baserunners and denied Gausman the PQS with an Olson solo shot in the sixth. Careful, Icarus. It’s too bad, and it’s likely Gausman sticks around in the Holly tier for a while. Make me give you the AGA label. I beg of you. (View Game Card)
Connor Prielipp (MIN) vs CHW (W) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 94 pitches.
Is this the end for our love for Prielipp? I’m not sure. He was Singled Out in the third, then had a Careful, Icarus with a PQS ruined after allowing two singles to lead off the seventh before the inevitable hook. Wait, a PQS with a 1.00 WHIP and seven strikeouts before the seventh? Yuuuup. That doesn’t seem so terrible, now does it? THAT SAID, I’m not seeing the changeup gains I want to see, and he’s throwing far too many pitches over the heart of the plate, like a sinker he tossed 24% of the time to RHB for some reason. The good news? The curveball is showing up and missing some bats (at a 52% strike rate, yuck), and the slider was better than his previous outings. Not quite the backfoot pitch to RHB, but great to LHB. It was a little rickety here, but he has a chance to steady the ship with KCR, STL, @ARI up next. A hold for 15-teamers, a questionable start for 12-teamers. (View Game Card)
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) @ STL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 11 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 93 pitches.
The dude was Singled Out with a solo shot and a proper Careful, Icarus as his final two runs came in the seventh as each of his first four baserunners reached on two singles, a double, and HBP. Yes, a PQS with a 1.17 WHIP and seven strikeouts before the seventh. Hey, kinda like Prielipp! It’s funny how much that seventh completely morphs our perception of a pitcher’s ability. Don’t let it happen to you. (View Game Card)
Connelly Early (BOS) vs BAL (L) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 96 pitches.
Two HRs did Early in, both on late-count secondaries, middle-down that Mayo + Alonso took yard. It’s good to see his four-seamer dominate at 36% CSW and 75% strikes acrosss 38% usage, though the sinker should fare better than a 54% strike rate and his changeup needs to get a bit lower for me to feel stoked. I still love the fella, of course, just want to really love him, you know? (View Game Card)
Cam Schlittler (NYY) vs CLE (L) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 76 pitches.
Aces gonna make managers worry for the first time this year. Yes, it’s true. Cam is throwing softer. Gasp. He sat 96.8 mph, a full tick down from the season average, and we’ve seen him sit 99+ at times. Should you be worried? Nah. It’s totally fine with me (I wonder if he’s even taking his foot slightly off the gas pedal to help him survive the season) and one tick drop is NOT the same as a huge drop-off during a start or 2-3 ticks. Not to mention, the cutter didn’t drop at all. nah, the real problem in this one was his location. So many heaters down the pipe + he elected to double his curveball usage for a start against all LHB and it went 4/11 strikes. That’s not good. No, it’s not. You’re going to see some managers trying to see Schlittler after this one, but I wouldn’t. If you don’t believe, sure, sell him, but not now. Chances are high he’ll dominate against the Red Sox in the Bronx on Sunday. After all, if that doesn’t come with adrenaline, I don’t know what will. (View Game Card)
Joey Cantillo (CLE) @ NYY (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 91 pitches.
It was the Yankees and it wasn’t his best changeup. It led to more curveballs than usual (33% usage!), which was generally great, save for a few costly mistakes. And, of course, the fastball is still a blastball. It could be better against the Rangers in Texas, but that’s a 15-team streaming play. (View Game Card)
Jonah Tong (NYM) @ SEA (L) – 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 83 pitches.
Hmmmm, why is Tong not throwing the cutter to LHB? Because the only one he threw was a hit. Sure, he didn’t get it high enough, but it was an 81 mph single. Instead, he threw a ton of balls on his four-seamer and put himself in more trouble with a higher pitch count, and I don’t follow the logic. In addition, Tong threw two true “mistakes” on his cutter that landed inside and over the plate, and both were punished – the second was a HR off to RHB Pereda – making this feel a little more like poor luck than “he deserved it”. Not to say he’s locked in, just a touch worse than it should have been. Regardless, it’s unclear if Tong will get another chance in the rotation with Kodai Senga possibly returning this week and even if he faced the Cardinals, I’d be cautious. At 83 pitches, he has the upside for 5-6 frames if he can nail down the precision of his fastball and incorporate better cutters to RHB, but I’d rather see him do it first. (View Game Card)
Mike Burrows (HOU) vs PIT (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 90 pitches.
We’ll just keep our heads Burrows in the sand. I kinda want to call him The Ostritch now, but that’s too much. (View Game Card)
Steven Matz (TBR) vs DET (L) – 1.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 53 pitches.
Womp womp. His sinker command isn’t what it was before his IL stint and we should ignore him until it returns. (View Game Card)
Miles Mikolas (WSH) vs MIA (L) – 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 92 pitches.
It shouldn’t be much of a surprise that Mikolas provided a line with 6 6 6. He had an opener and was ultimately relieved in the ninth, but not before back-to-back-to-back HRs in the fifth + allowing two singles to kick off the ninth, and were added to his ER total before the inning ended. Why am I telling you all this? You already know he’s not worth your time. But he sat nearly two ticks harder! And returned six whiffs on 92 pitches. Against the Marlins. I’ll go back to my corner. GOOD. I hope you turn it soon. (View Game Card)
Davis Martin (CHW) @ MIN (L) – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 10 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 92 pitches.
Is this the end? It could very well be. This clunker comes at a terrible time – ATL, LAD @DET are up next – and I’m shocked to see him focus so much on fastballs, while giving up on his changeup and cutter. Sure, the curveball wasn’t clicking (33% strikes, yeesh), and his slider was getting more of the plate than usual, but you can’t just keep giving in with heaters, you know? The Vargas Rule is two-fold: We’re starting a guy we don’t expect to sustain this success throughout the year and we let him go when he hits the wall. We were kind after the start against the Giants, but this is the second rough day in three games. In concert with the schedule, it’s time. (View Game Card)
Grayson Rodriguez (LAA) vs COL (L) – 3.2 IP, 8 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 91 pitches.
Welp, that was terrible. Everything was bad. The four-seamer is still his best pitch, but not when he’s throwing it comfortably over the plate, or when his other offerings are failing miserably, allowing batters to lock in on a fastball. And truly, I mean miserable. The changeup went 8/17 strikes, just two curveballs to LHB landed at the bottom of the zone or under it, and both sliders to RHB backed up to the inner half, and one was a 111 mph EV bazooka over the fence. While I am happy to see his curveball come in a bit harder (81/82 mph), I need to see a start with Grayson feeling his secondaries much better than this before I can trust him. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Gavin Williams vs. Gerrit Cole – Williams is trying to make a case for an AGA tag (probably not there even if he succeeds here), while Cole is proving he deserved his coronation.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)
