Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Friday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Hunter Greene (CIN) vs CHC (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 12 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 93 pitches.
There’s an inherent link between some pitchers. Some find commonality in their pitch repertoire, others share comparable career trajectories, and still more have similar pitching mechanics. Rarely are pitchers linked by such arbitrary reasons as a title, but Hunter Brown and Hunter Greene have felt like distant kin since they both emerged as aces, sharing the same first name with a color-inspired surname
They don’t have similar arsenals, career paths, or mechanics, nor did they have similar outings on Friday, but they did both just return from injury and will be discussed often both this weekend and the rest of the season. Greene outpitched Brown, dominating the Cubs with 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 12 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 93 pitches (W), announcing his return to form. Pitching in Texas against the Rangers, Brown stumbled to 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 5 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 98 pitches (ND), failing to recover his pre-injury success.
Greene’s start doesn’t require much analysis. He overwhelmed batters with triple-digit heat, allowing him to get away with a sub-60% strike rate on sliders. There was room for even more success if four-seamers weren’t fouled off a whopping 18 times (36% foul%) – likely whiffs in a start where he holds a normal foul ball rate. He’ll need to find the zone more with his slider to continue pitching this well, but we’re beyond happy seeing a King Cole with a dozen punchouts after he allowed eight runs in his season debut. He’s back, baby!
As for Brown, his trajectory is headed in the wrong direction. He looked amazing in March before he suffered a shoulder strain that held him out of action until mid-June. He still looked great upon his return, but it’s been downhill since then, and there are two concerning problems.
The command, or lack thereof, is the most obvious one, as only sinkers eclipsed 60% strikes while everything else combined for a 52% mark. Even worse, most of his pitches weren’t competitive and were all over the place. We’re not talking about near misses. We’re talking about a majority of his secondaries landing in the upper half of the zone and tons of fastballs missing by more than a foot. You can blame that for the five walks in this one, and it was surprising he was efficient enough to survive six frames with so many free passes.
The more concerning issue has been the diminishment of his stuff, most notably on his four-seamer. Not only is he throwing more than a tick slower, but the movement of the pitch has precipitously disappeared. He’s lost more than 2″ of iVB on his four-seamer, making it a below league-average pitch according to stuff grades. His sinker and changeup movement have actually improved, with both gaining more drop and the former finding more run (the changeup has less run, but that’s a result of inconsistent feel for the pitch). However, the accompanying velo dip offsets the movement improvements.
The four-seamer decline weighs more heavily than possible sinker enhancement. It was his most-used pitch last year, and his formerly elite dual fastballs were what propelled him to acedom. Without those pitches dominating in concert with well-commanded curveballs, he quickly becomes a pitcher easily exploited by opposing offenses. We’re not dropping him, but this current version of Brown won’t be having a Coronation Day any time soon.
Greene has firmly established himself as the premier Hunter+Color in MLB. (View Game Card) (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:
Nolan McLean (NYM) vs BOS (L) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 98 pitches.
It’s crazy how well McLean has pitched despite not having his best stuff for the past month-plus. His offspeed pitches completely disappeared here, as curveballs, sweepers, changeups, and sliders combined for a ghastly 37% strike rate and 9% CSW. Those need to be at least a Haunter, and preferably a Gengar. Imagine if he incorporated a Shadow Ball into his arsenal. He’d be unhittable! Luckily, his Ras Pack stepped up for 75% strikes and 35% CSW, keying another excellent start. This caps a stretch of eight outings in which his arsenal has been compromised, but he’s returned a 2.35 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 26% K% regardless. I’m cautiously optimistic that he keeps surviving and obviously has a higher, more sustainable ceiling to achieve. (View Game Card)
Kyle Leahy (STL) vs ATL (ND) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 44 pitches.
Leahy looked poised for another excellent outing before rain cut his start short. He was throwing a tick harder and finding strikes on everything not labeled 4SFB (they returned 47% strikes). He’s allowed just one run across his last four appearances, and yet, the continued lack of command has us withholding our faith from this PEAS. (View Game Card)
Chris Sale (ATL) @ STL (ND) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 43 pitches.
Sale’s outing was also ended early by the rain, and I’m actually fine with it. I know, how could I not consider the success of your fantasy team this week? While that is my top priority, I’m thinking more long-term in my desire to keep both Sale and your fantasy teams productive all year. He enters the All-Star Break at full health and will exit it fully rested. Injuries are the only thing that will prevent him from carrying your pitching staff. (View Game Card)
Sean Burke (CHW) vs ATH (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 98 pitches.
The dude has fully broken out and has done so in impressive fashion. This co-share of the Gallows Pole, driven by the continued success of his elite four-seamer with extra velo, helped him eclipse eight Ks for the fourth time in his last five starts. During that time, he has a 1.69 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and a 34% K%. He’s realized that nobody can hit the heater at 96 mph with 18-19″ of vert and 6.9′ of extension, so he’s unafraid of the zone. He needs minimal effort from secondaries to support the fastball, and there you have it. Still just 66% rostered in Yahoo! leagues, he must be rostered universally. I don’t think I have service on Saturn. UNIVERSALLY! (View Game Card)
Sonny Gray (BOS) @ NYM (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 91 pitches.
Gray had no right eeking out six frames of one-run ball while inducing just two whiffs. His arsenal full of gloveside movement doesn’t lend itself to success against a bunch of LHB, and that sure seemed like the case here. Koufax looked upon him with favor, allowing him to return 14 outs on 19 balls in play. This was far from convincing, and I can’t say he’s been convincing this year. This is a safe space. You can say anything. Oh, it’s not because I’m not allowed to. It’s because he hasn’t given me any reason to. Regardless, he’s allowed more than one run just thrice in his last 13 starts, producing a 2.03 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 25% K% during that time. Hard to argue with that! (View Game Card)
Parker Messick (CLE) @ MIA (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hit, 4 BBs, 1 K – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 91 pitches.
Last start was worrying, as Messick escaped with reduced velo and no secondary support. What did we get here? Messick escaping with reduced velo and no secondary support. Four-seamers are still at 94, and everything else combined for just 50% strikes. The dastardly combo led to four times as many walks as strikeouts. HAISTBMBWT?! (That’s funny to write while I’m literally buttering a sourdough loaf as my article snack). The All-Star Break couldn’t come at a better time as Messick may be feeling some fatigue. He’s at 112 IP after topping out at 133.2 IP as a minor leaguer in 2024, FWIW. (View Game Card)
Cal Quantrill (TEX) vs HOU (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 K – 2 Whiffs, 16% CSW, 79 pitches.
The Unquantrillfiable strikes again! Here’s your Gold Star, buddy. We’re back to sinker/cutter after going four-seamer/splitter last time. He’s combined for five whiffs across his last two starts and left us screaming HAISTBMBWT?! Alright, this bucket-o-butter is going fast. I’ve got too much loaf left to run out now. Time to break out the strawberry jam. It’s the best flavor. You don’t need to tell me that! (View Game Card)
Ryan Weathers (NYY) @ WSN (ND) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 91 pitches.
The past couple of months haven’t been very kind to Weathers, as he’s allowed 4+ runs in six of his last 10 starts. The other four, including this one, have been good enough to keep us invested. Maybe not to the point where we’re holding him, but enough to keep him in the Questionable Start tier. I’m happy to report the long ball issues have vanished (four straight starts without a homer) and that he threw plenty of strikes here. Weathers emphasized secondaries in a massive change to his approach, throwing sweepers, sliders, and changeups 81% of the time while dropping his four-seamer/sinker usage to 20%. As long as he throws enough strikes with the offspeed stuff, it’s a good decision, as those heaters are super homer-prone and have only gotten more hittable as the season’s worn on. (View Game Card)
Robbie Ray (SFG) vs COL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 6 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 15% CSW, 100 pitches.
It was difficult to read into Ray’s continued success as his arsenal was affected by Coors last time. What about this one? Also hard to read into because he got the cushy matchup of Rockie Road. That weak offense failed to exploit whatever weaknesses he still has, allowing him to reel off a fifth-straight successful start (1.08 ERA in that time). What I can say is that his slider is still missing (24% strikes, 5% CSW) and he’s still throwing sinkers more than twice as often as four-seamers. I can’t say I’m a fan of shunning his best offering and relying on ineffective breakers. I hope he figures it out before it all falls apart. (View Game Card)
Tanner Gordon (COL) @ SFG (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 81 pitches.
Gordon’s been serviceable on the road, relying on a solid changeup to produce a 3.00 ERA in six outings (24 IP). Just like most Rockies pitchers finding one night of success, this makes no sense. He was sitting two ticks down (nearly three on his heater), but found a way to survive five frames of one-run ball. You can’t thank Koufax for this one either. He allowed eight hits while being ultra-reliant on batted balls due to just one punchout. HAISTBMBWT?! There are crumbs everywhere because this bread is so dry! (View Game Card)
Shota Imanaga (CHC) @ CIN (L) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 102 pitches.
Great American Smallpark is a scary place to pitch for most starters, especially ones as homer-prone as Imanaga. Just one ball left the yard, and it came with nobody on base, despite eight baserunners in this one, so he gave us a productive start. He’s still sitting closer to 92 than 91, finding plenty of whiffs on splitters (seven), and avoiding damage on his tertiary offerings. That’s what we like to hear! I prefer the sounds of smooth jazz. He’s on the Yankees. (View Game Card)
Zack Littell (WSN) vs NYY (ND) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 69 pitches.
Carson Palmquist opened for Littell, going 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 45 pitches (ND), and I’d much rather see him get a shot in the rotation than see Littell go Dancing With The Disco one more time. I’m actually in the boat that he’s pulling off the Canibal McSanchez because I think he’s altered his slider to be more of a cutter at 89 mph. He throws it upstairs in concert with sinkers and four-seamers, perfectly imitating the Canibals of yesteryear. Either way you label his approach, I’m not remotely interested. (View Game Card)
Jack Flaherty (DET) vs PHI (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 86 pitches.
Flaherty’s been a different man since returning from the IL. His first start back, he displayed increased velo while pulling off the BSB, leading to plenty of whiffs. His second start held the velo, but he lost the command. That didn’t prevent him from nearly completing six shutout frames. Now, he’s out here earning co-shares of the Gallows Pole without the increased velo, but with the return of the execution of the BSB. He eclipsed 60% strikes with at least four whiffs on his primary trio of pitches. That’s more results-based analysis, but if he continues to exhibit this level of command, he may not even need to maintain the velo he displayed briefly. I’m not fully convinced and will need to see him do it in the second half to shake off my avoidant bias caused by his weeks of struggles in previous months. (View Game Card)
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) @ LAD (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 87 pitches.
Not even the reigning two-time World Champions can put a stop to E-Rod’s Vargas Rule. He ruled so hard that he earned himself a selection to the All-Star game. He keeps commanding four-seamers, changeups, and cutters exceptionally, and we gotta keep starting him until it waivers, even if he is just a Toby. Hopefully, the break doesn’t get him out of rhythm. He’s allowed more than two runs just four times this year, leading to a 2.29 ERA across 19 starts. That’s dope! (View Game Card)
Nick Martinez (TBR) vs SEA (W) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 K – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 70 pitches.
Speaking of a Vargas Rule, Martinez kept his rolling by avoiding the heart of the plate with his changeup + Ras Pack approach. Sub-50% strikes on changeups is concerning, but y’know what I’m more focused on? The lack of strikeouts! HAISTBMBWT?! I’ve switched from jam to black pepper (probably the best seasoning of all time). It brings depth to the buttered bread, taking it to the next level. (View Game Card)
Aaron Nola (PHI) @ DET (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 84 pitches.
Success from Nola is usually accompanied by increased fastball velo, or at the very least, improved heater command to offset their hitability. Not here! Just straight-up success. Curveballs and changesups cooked as usual, combining for 11 whiffs and 37% CSW. The 91-93 mph velo on four-seamers and sinkers alongside their 55% strike rate, has me continuing to slowly back away from Nola. I’m just gonna see my way out of here. Enjoy the strikeouts driven by an unsustainable 67% putaway rate! (View Game Card)
Shane Bieber (TOR) @ SDP (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 97 pitches.
That’s a step in the right direction! Not enough to have us singing “YUKON”, but enough to have me queuing the song in preparation for his return to form. He found an extra tick of velo and realized that he shouldn’t be throwing his 32% strike rate changeup so often, allowing his breakers to shine for eight whiffs and 47% CSW. There are a couple more tweaks he needs to make, most notably commanding his fastball, but there’s hope. Hope that he comes out of the break looking like the Bieber that sang “Baby”. (View Game Card)
Kyle Hurt (LAD) vs ARI (ND) – 1.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 K – 4 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 36 pitches.
Hurt headlined a bullpen game for the Dodgers, aaaaand we’re moving on. (View Game Card)
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs CLE (L) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 99 pitches.
The Marlins would be lined up to receive an impressive package if they dealt Alcantara at the deadline, but with a 52-43 record that has them as the third wild card team and just three games back of the division lead, I’d be extremely surprised if they shopped him. Sandy’s lost his changeup feel recently, but his Ras Pack has taken over, dominating batters in the zone with upper-90s heat. Sweepers were the big emphasis here, despite facing mostly LHB and producing just 19% CSW on the pitch. Hey, if I were able to throw a baseball like a frisbee, I’d be trying to sneak in the back door every chance I could get. (View Game Card)
Brandon Young (BAL) vs KCR (ND) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 85 pitches.
Young has been the poor man’s Sean Burke, deploying an underrated heater alongside an array of mediocre secondaries, and propelling a mini-breakout. Young’s hasn’t been talked about much because it hasn’t produced the same impressive strikeout numbers, but it has lasted a lot longer than Burke’s. Since the start of May, he has a 3.23 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and a 20% strikeout rate across a dozen starts. That makes him a fine streamer and a must-roster in 15-team leagues and deeper. (View Game Card)
Grayson Rodriguez (LAA) @ MIN (W) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 79 pitches.
GrayRod returned from the IL and failed to inspire us to increase his roster percentage. He sat a tick down and decided to throw four-seamers and changeups 89% of the time. The final result was nearly six frames without a single strikeout. HAISTBMBWT?! I take full responsibility for this. My choice of article snack brought about the butter-pocalypse. What am I supposed to do with all this bread?! (View Game Card)
Luinder Avila (KCR) @ BAL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 96 pitches.
In my head, there’s a weak link between Avila and Andrew Alvarez. Their last names are similar. That’s a stretch. Fine. They also both throw a pair of fastballs with a pair of breakers and a rarely-touched changeup. Alvarez does it from the left side with low-90s velo, while Avila does it from the right side with mid-90s velo. I think both of them have the potential to become streamers if they can find ways to lean on their breakers to hide their hittable heaters. They also need to find more efficiency so they can qualify for a quality start. Neither of them has completed the sixth frame all year. (View Game Card)
JP Sears (SDP) vs TOR (L) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 72 pitches.
The Sears catalogue is full of mistakes, and the stuff is way out of style. Even throwing a tick harder with plenty of help from a passive Jays lineup, he’s failed to excel with his changeup-driven arsenal to earn the SWATCH title. (View Game Card)
Zebby Matthews (MIN) vs LAA (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 102 pitches.
I really thought this was a perfectly fine streaming opportunity for Matthews against the lowly Angels, but even they’re not immune to the hitability of Zebby’s heater. Failing to maintain the 96 mph velo from the first frame, his four-seamer allowed five hits and a dinger as it fell to as low as 91.9 mph by the sixth inning. With sliders doing all they could and still allowing three hits, there’s little hope for a redemption arc. His name is so cool that we want him to be dope, but it’s best to avoid him until the magic that prevents home runs returns. Sell a pill for that, and you’ll be a rich fella! (View Game Card)
Luis Castillo (SEA) @ TBR (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 91 pitches.
It felt like Castillo was becoming a reliable Holly again. He was sitting 96 with improved slider command and a willingness to throw his once-signature changeup. Welp, we can throw that out the window! The heater was back down to 95 mph, the slider sat middle-middle, and changeups were thrown just 10 times. It’s so frustrating to finally come around on a pitcher you’ve written off for months, if not years, just to have them do exactly what made you avoid them in the first place. Fool me once, etc. (View Game Card)
Aaron Civale (ATH) @ CHW (L) – 2.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 58 pitches.
It’s sort of funny to me when clubs take a struggling pitcher and put an opener before them in an effort to get them back on track. Especially when nothing changes, and they keep pitching poorly. Even with added velo across the board, Civale still raised his ERA after following an opening five outs from Jacob Lopez. It’s been a disaster for a while, as Civale has a 10.17 ERA and a 2.13 WHIP across his last six outings. The only reason the A’s could have for holding onto him is the hope of trading him at the deadline. Good luck with that! (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Logan Gilbert vs. Griffin Jax – Can Gilbert continue his hot streak, and does Jax finally break out into the mainstream baseball consciousness?
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
