Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Sunday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Hayden Birdsong (SFG) @ COL (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 12 Ks – 27 Whiffs, 45% CSW, 98 pitches.
What a ridiculous outing from Hayden Birdsong today. After a quartet of outings that completed the fifth just half of the time and registering under a strikeout per inning, Birdsong returned a line that is sure to force many fantasy managers to run to the waiver wire: 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 12 Ks – 27 Whiffs, 45% CSW, 98 pitches. That’s right, a Golden Goal for the rookie in Coors and sure, have a Gold Star while you’re at it.
It was weird. Really weird. Simply put, Birdsong couldn’t throw a heater for a strike (10/28 = 36% four-seamer strike rate. What.), so he instead flipped curveballs and sliders over the plate à la Dancing With The Disco and the Rockies obliged. Obliged? I mean, couldn’t hit the dang thing despite pedestrian movement and some horrific locations.
The end result was 10+ whiffs and 50%+ CSW on both breaking balls, accounting for nearly 70% of all his pitches. It’s absolutely bonkers. I watched each at-bat as Birdsong fell behind constantly, then got back into it with breakers. And yes, the curveball was looking sharper than before, especially when he got it properly low (36% zone rate and 56% strike rate entering today), but I just can’t wrap my head around how unimpressive he looked. The slider was nothing like a 52% CSW, 10/33 whiff slider that we see from someone like Bradish, Cease, or Glasnow, and his curveball isn’t the next Nola hook. And that fastball. I can’t rid my mind of the anxiety I felt watching him miss the zone with his four-seamer two-thirds of the time.
Alright alright, enough of whatever that was. On paper, Birdsong clearly has an approach that works now – throw breakers, not fastballs – and he’s worth the gamble a second time against Colorado when he hosts them for Rockie Road. He likely won’t have the same curveball, the fastball will still be wonky, and let’s hope the slider can steer the ship. Tomorrow never knows.
Let’s see how every other SP did Sunday:
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) @ CHC (ND) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 94 pitches.
After Birdsong, why not write about another arm who had a great outing despite all my blathering suggesting otherwise. Pfaadt still confounds me a bit, though this start makes more sense – the changeup went 50% CSW and the Cubs aren’t the hottest ticket. This isn’t enough for me to get on board, but maybe there is something about that sinker and four-seamer combo that keeps batters at bay from launching baseballs over the fence. Pittsburgh is next, so let me just call that a foreshadowing moment and continue to live in ignorant bliss. Start the man.
Andrew Abbott (CIN) @ WSN (ND) – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 103 pitches.
How about a third befuddling pitcher? Here’s Abbott, thrusting sweepers and four-seamers well into the zone and surviving despite nine baserunners and a HAISTBMBWT?! I don’t know y’all, pitch him all you want, I’m just taking a backseat on it. I just don’t know what to expect.
Tyler Phillips (PHI) @ PIT (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 85 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! Phillips came through with 6/31 sweeper whiffs & 39% CSW, while the rest helped by finding outs along the edges. I’m hesitant to lean into Phillips as there really isn’t much more than that sweeper, but maybe he goes long enough to steal a Win against the Guardians this week. Ehhhhh, I’d really prefer not to test that.
Drew Thorpe (CHW) @ KCR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 97 pitches.
Ayyyy, another productive start fueled by changeups. We also saw the slider wake up for 7/19 whiffs, and I love seeing that pitch nail the down-and-gloveside corner. MmmMMM! That’s the good stuff. I sincerely hope he can do that often moving forward as Thorpe has desperately needed another pitch to play his changeup off of.
Andrew Heaney (TEX) vs BAL (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 100 pitches.
Heaney located the slider just off the edge this time around, reducing its strike rate heavily and forcing more changeups than ideal, but he made it work for five shutout against the Orioles, and a glorious, golden dub. Why did I doubt you? Because you’re logical n stuff. Maybe. Or maybe I’m just stuff that’s logically arranged…Make it stop. Nah, I’m starting him against the Jays. Touché.
Shane Baz (TBR) @ NYY (ND) – 3.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 5 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 14% CSW, 76 pitches.
He generally located the four-seamer upstairs effectively, but the slider went 8/20 strikes without a whiff. Baz isn’t Baz without that slider and even with the heater’s shape still great, I’m worried. I’d give him one more start against the Reds where he needs to show off that pitch. Shane can’t be a HAISTBMBWT?! man.
Seth Lugo (KCR) vs CHW (W) – 9.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 103 pitches.
Oh Lugo, you beautiful man. Yes yes yes, Blame it on the White Sox, but the dude tossed nine different pitches according to Savant and he mixed and matched elegantly. He’s fun y’all, even if it’s not overpowering.
Shota Imanaga (CHC) vs ARI (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 90 pitches.
IM AN AGA. The sweeper is here! 8/11 strikes with four whiffs and 45% CSW are all fun marks, while the heater and splitter did what they should do. Well, results-wise – the four-seamer’s iVB was down to just 16″ in this one, a far cry from its 19″ clip in April. Just sayin’.
Michael King (SDP) @ CLE (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 85 pitches.
King is a stud and now gets the Orioles + Dodgers. Listen y’all, if he comes through in both of those, he has to get the AGA tag, right? It’s his seventh start of 1 ER or fewer across his last nine starts. He’s dope and makes us feel dope.
Trevor Rogers (MIA) vs NYM (ND) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 99 pitches.
The stuff just isn’t that good. Okay, the slider wasn’t great either, but the general command is strong. He just needs a better arsenal.
Jake Irvin (WSN) vs CIN (ND) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 100 pitches.
Huh. 9/50 four-seamer whiffs with just 2/26 on the hook…but a 38% CSW on the signature breaker. It’s not a special four-seamer (just elite extension), but he threw strikes and the Reds are pretty meh away from home. Alright Irvin, you’ve earned at least one more start on the squads. Don’t let us down against the Cards.
Ryan Feltner (COL) vs SFG (L) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 98 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! The changeup, curve, and sweeper all did work in this one and that must have been a cool feeling for Feltner. Velocity is down to 94 mph, though, and this is a clear Birthday Party. Welp, til next year.
Miles Mikolas (STL) @ ATL (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 88 pitches.
Huh. Mikolas was able to finagle his way through six frames against Atlanta, mostly with low secondaries and some heaters well over the plate. It’s awfully precarious and I hate trusting it, but y’all know there’s always a chance with guys like Mikolas – they have a long enough leash and lean hard into contact in hopes of finding quick outs.
Joey Estes (OAK) vs LAA (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 97 pitches.
Ehhhhhh, not a whole lot to enjoy here. I don’t feel like putting Joey in our pouch and taking him along for the ride.
Bryan Woo (SEA) vs HOU (W) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 73 pitches.
Ayyyy, he made it over 70 pitches! And nearly completed six! With some strikeouts! I’ll stop exclaiming! He’s really just whipping four-seamers and sinkers for the most part, with the rare breaker or poor changeup. I think it’ll be a few outings before we see him settle into a foundation that allows him to experiment, but at least he’s healthy for now and gets the White Sox for what should be roughly 75-80 pitches.
Ben Lively (CLE) vs SDP (L) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 97 pitches.
Nothing different, really. That’s just Lively when he faces a decent offense. So heat up some popcorn and let him watch the Phillies game from the couch? Yuuuup. Make sure it has the Flavacol. Duh.
Marcus Stroman (NYY) vs TBR (L) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 87 pitches.
Yep, that’s a Stroman start. The cutter, slider, and slurve made it work, while the Yankee offense didn’t do their part. So it goes.
Marco Gonzales (PIT) vs PHI (L) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 84 pitches.
He tried as hard as he could to make it five frames with 2 ER. He really did. It’s not the worst matchup against the Sneks next, though I’d prefer to have a start where Marco cruises before jumping in.
Dean Kremer (BAL) @ TEX (L) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 89 pitches.
Ehhhhhh, you got nothing here and there’s little to point to from Kremer to suggest we should be encouraged moving forward. He’s volatile enough to recover as soon as next start, but why risk it?
James Paxton (LAD) vs BOS (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 95 pitches.
Another Win for Paxton as it’s July 22nd and he’s somehow still pitching. Paxton’s survival absolutely enthralls me with all of his teammates dropping like flies. YOU WERE THE CHOSEN INJURED ONE. Well, at least you won’t be chosen for your next start against the Astros. Definitely not into that one.
Carson Fulmer (LAA) @ OAK (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 77 pitches.
Womp womp. I had high hopes for this one after Fulmer showcased a great change and slider in his last outing. Thing is, the sweeper and change were great, but a trio of curveballs truly did in Fulmer, including a longball. So it goes, he’ll get another shot against Oakland later this week and I won’t rule out that start being a solid five. Not the highest upside, of course.
Christian Scott (NYM) @ MIA (L) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 75 pitches.
Okay, I’m good. But you said this would be a solid stream. No, I mean like “I’m not interested”. Ahhhhhh, yeah that tracks. It’s the Marlins, Scott. Throw more than 12 sweepers, especially when you had a 67% strike rate with them. He was feeling the slider down-and-away, though. Yeah yeah yeah, but the four-seamer was getting teed off of and he needed more of the sweeper to keep them off balance. That’s your golden boy complement to the high heater, use it. Welp, now it’s Atlanta and honestly, regardless of who was next, I was already moving on from Scott. It’ll click back at some point, I’m sure, I don’t feel like I need to hold on until then.
Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs DET (W) – 6.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 97 pitches.
It was the Tigers. And the splitter went 17% CSW with 4/30 whiffs. Sigh.
Joe Ryan (MIN) vs MIL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 88 pitches.
Ryan spotted everything down the heart of the plate unlike his usual self of locating heaters upstairs and mostly keeping the rest underneath. I won’t ignore that it’s the fourth start in five with at least 3 ER, combining for 16 ER among them. And just one HR this time! He’s not locked in and better days should come.
Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) vs STL (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 98 pitches.
There’s a Dusty Donut for you, all because of three taters. It’s unfortunate given Schwellenbach returned nine whiffs on his splitter out of nowhere, but I’m not too surprised two homers came off the four-seamer. Speaking of which, why was that thrown 32% of the time with just five sinkers? Wasn’t that the new thing we liked – more sinkers to nullify the four-seamer? I keep feeling like he’s super close to making this work, but he continues to get hit harder than the rest. You’re so close Spencer, just keep them off that dang heater.
Ronel Blanco (HOU) @ SEA (L) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 100 pitches.
Gasp. Against the Mariners?! The slider was great per usual, the changeup and four-seamer didn’t prevent hits at the right times. Whatareyagonnado. We keep going.
Keider Montero (DET) @ TOR (L) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 72 pitches.
Let’s not go after Keider. The Tigers may continue to give him a shot with their thinning rotation, but that doesn’t mean you have to, too.
Aaron Civale (MIL) @ MIN (ND) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 87 pitches.
Blegh. 46% cutter strikes is all I need to tell you. His command was bad and let’s give him a break…wait. It’s the Marlins next. UGH. I guess we give it a shot, right? He should be better than this one.
Kutter Crawford (BOS) @ LAD (L) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 76 pitches.
He allowed five home runs. Yuuuuuuup. There’s yer problem. Two heaters down the pipe, one kutter down Broadway, and a kutter + sweeper up-and-away to RHBs. Yes, all bad pitches. Yes, we brush it off and keep starting the man.
Game of the Day
Cole Ragans vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – PEW. PEW. PEW.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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