Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Tuesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Gavin Williams (CLE) @ CIN (L) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 12 Ks – 25 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 101 pitches.
Can we all take a moment to appreciate that the Gavin Williams breakout is officially here? He put managers through the ringer in both 2025 and the first three months of this season, but after his blistering 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 12 Ks – 25 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 101 pitches (L) outing with a Golden Goal against the Reds on Tuesday, Gavin now boasts a 3.46 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 40% strikeout rate across his last seven games. And a 1-2 record. BASEBALL IS DUMB.
This was Gavin’s fourth straight outing with at least eleven strikeouts, and it’s hilarious how easy it is to find its catalyst. Is it the thing you were shouting about since May 22nd? It sure is. On that wonderful day, Gavin started an eight-game stretch where he featured 27% sinkers, 10% cutters, and 13% four-seamers. He wasn’t terrible in that time, but after the first outing, he eclipsed six strikeouts just once – 8 punchouts on June 22nd.
Then July 9th happened. Eleven strikeouts against the Twins with 10% sinkers, 0% cutters, and 32% four-seamers. He’s now averaged 37% four-seamers in each of these four games, ditching the cutter completely, and bringing his sinker down to 12% usage. It’s clear as day.
Gavin has also massively improved his sweeper feel this year, allowing him to switch between it and the curveball on a given day to lean on whichever pitch he can use for strikes. Here, we saw a rare two-pitch lean of sweepers and four-seamers at 81% usage combined, with the breaker boasting a 51% CSW, while the 98 mph heater sat upstairs to RHB and inside to LHB. It’s glorious.
You don’t need me to tell you to keep starting the fella. What I will say is I’m not exactly sure how long it’ll last. He’s cooking. He’s pitching his best baseball. It’s a long two months ahead, though, and I’m not sure how much gas he has in the tank. I also heavily question that he can putaway 86% of the batters who see a two-strike count on a consistent basis. But I’ll stop rambling now and let you know about a potential Coronation Day ahead. This string of a 3.00 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, and a 46% strikeout rate in 27.0 IP and four games is as studly as it gets. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs PHI (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 97 pitches.
It’s so nice to see a bounce-back outing, if you even want to call it that given how he should have been pulled before at least two ER last game (if not three!). His cutter is grooving against LHB, and the sinker is looking great against RHB. We’re cooking. (View Game Card)
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) @ PIT (ND) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 101 pitches.
This has been an incredible run from Pfaadt since returning to the rotation on June 30th – 1.85 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP with a 5-0 record in six games – but I didn’t mention his whiffs per game or strikeout rate. Oh no. Six whiffs per game, with a 13% strikeout rate. Nooooo. That said, he’s locating the changeup incredibly well to LHB while the rest of his attack is a mish-mash of fastballs, cutters, and breakers. It’s not the most convincing approach, but credit where it’s due. He’ll get the Padres next (yay!) then LAD, @ATL after (nay!). (View Game Card)
Troy Melton (DET) vs BAL (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 92 pitches.
Through eleven games, Melton now holds a 1.75 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and a 23% strikeout rate while averaging 6+ innings per start. Yeaaaah, I think he’s figured out how to use his arsenal. (View Game Card)
Gage Jump (ATH) vs BOS (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 90 pitches.
Well look at this fella. Just when we were moving on from Jump, he takes down one of the hotter teams in baseball on his own uncomfortable turf of Sacré Verde. This was more of the same – four-seamers and sliders making up 75% of all his pitches – but the Sawx couldn’t handle the pair at all. If Jump weren’t wearing the Oakland green, I’d be more in on this (negative points for multiple reasons), and yet, it’s a home start against the Tigers, the Sawx again in Fenway, and hosting the Rangers ahead of him. It’s the classic “I need strikeouts but also worried about my ratios” conundrum. It’s up to you. (View Game Card)
Gerrit Cole (NYY) @ CHW (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 99 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. His four-seamer is dope again and has been for a few starts now. It was the last missing piece and now hitters are getting Cole in their stockings. No, that was just players on the White Stockings. Okay. (View Game Card)
Logan Henderson (MIL) @ SFG (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 93 pitches.
Not only was this another dope line from Henderson, but 93 pitches quells any concerns we had about his leash moving forward. You know, he’s only allowed more than 2 ER in one game this year – 3 ER in 5.1 IP during his Still ILL on July 9th. His changeup has a 21% SwStr rate with a 70% strike rate at 33% usage for the full year. It’s pretty dang incredible. (View Game Card)
Jose Franco (CIN) vs CLE (W) – 3.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 48 pitches.
This was a bullpen game for the Reds with Franco coming in and snatching the Win. Nothing to see here, let’s move on.
Seth Lugo (KCR) @ MIN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 84 pitches.
On one hand, Lugo has allowed just 5 ER across 19 IP over his last three games. On the other, he’s returned just ten strikeouts in that time. This was a little less scattered around the zone than I normally see with Lugo and it’s simply too risky to trust in Coors or against the Cubs ahead. (View Game Card)
Colin Rea (CHC) @ STL (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 94 pitches.
The rules are simple. When Rea gets a decent matchup – like the Cardinals in the lovely pitcher-friendly Busch Stadium – he’s a good stream. I appreciate what you do, Rea; now get out of here because I’m not touching you against the Yankees. (View Game Card)
Aaron Nola (PHI) @ MIA (L) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 93 pitches.
That’s a Dusty Donut, alright. He’s truly trying to do everything he can to make it work, but I think he went a little too ham on the 47% strike changeup at 37% usage, throwing the pitch nearly 2x more than his elite curveball. Not sure I understand that one. Either way, don’t do this to yourself. (View Game Card)
Griffin Jax (TBR) vs TEX (L) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 10 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 93 pitches.
Three walks are annoying, but all of his pitches returned a 60%+ strike rate and I see them as an anomaly (two in 3-2 counts, one a nine-pitch grind, FWIW). The real story is 93 pitches and trust to go out there for the sixth at 83 pitches, in which he fanned another two batters. That’s a 3.08 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 28% strikeout rate across his last ten games, albeit across 52.2 IP, though he hasn’t pitched fewer than five frames in any of them. Also, this includes that absurd Koufax hating afternoon of 7 ER against the Red Sox, which would lower that ERA to 2.08. He’s legit, y’all, and I don’t feel like I need to prove that anymore. Four of his five pitches returned at least a 20% SwStr rate, with his 72% strike sinker as the only exception. In fact, that sinker was so good to LHB, showcasing the rare ability to dot front-hip sinkers at will (40% called strikes to LHB! 12/15 on the inner third!). He’s just so good. (View Game Card)
Cal Quantrill (TEX) @ TBR (W) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 69 pitches.
So, uh, That’s 6 ER total in five of his last six games. Tell them about the other one. Okay, that was 6 ER in four innings with 12 baserunners. But still! This is better than expected! It’s all thanks to being stupid picky and living outside the zone (38% zone rate!) with splitters, four-seamers, and cutters, and axing his sinker usage along the way. Is it this good? Highly unlikely, and with Jordan Montgomery making his debut this week, it’s unclear when The UnQuantrillfiable starts again. However, the trade deadline approaches and we’ll see what happens there. If he were to start again, it would @HOU, which I wouldn’t be interested in (less potential for his splitter to take over against RHB), but who knows. I understand those in desperate AL-Only leagues giving it a shot were it to happen. (View Game Card)
Chase Burns (CIN) vs CLE (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 89 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. To be fair, he was pushed to 33 pitches in a fake bamboozlin’ in the first – a two-out grand-slam off the books after an earlier error – but if he hadn’t thrown such a terrible 2-2 slider, the pitch wouldn’t have left the yard. ANYWAY, this was a strange one where he exclusively faced LHB and his slider wasn’t quite as consistent as we normally see, leading to a poor overall putaway rate at just 31% (average is 50%). Everything was a tick down as well, and it’s hard to ignore that after a string of five straight 6+ IP games, Burns has reached the six-inning mark just three times since May 26th across ten starts. At least he’s throwing a third pitch again? That changeup went 1/7 strikes. WHATEVER. (View Game Card)
Taj Bradley (MIN) vs KCR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 10 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 102 pitches.
I gotta say, I’ve been casting so much doubt on Bradley this season and it’s clearly been a huge miss on my part. He was hot to kick off the year, then hit the IL and couldn’t find the form again across four starts of at least 4+ ERA and eleven total walks (yeesh), but his last eight have been fantastic, save for one blip in Wrigley, posting a 2.94 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 31% strikeout rate. Sure, he’s still limiting hits at an unsustainable mark (a 5.7 hits/9 clip is reserved only for the immortals), but he’s also throwing a ton of strikes with his main three offerings. Let it ride, y’all, and you’ll see a bump on The List next week for this HIPSTER Cherry Bomb. (View Game Card)
Cade Cavalli (WSN) vs TOR (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 98 pitches.
Let’s check the boxes. Velo is still above 97 mph. Curveball is still above 87 mph. Cutter is still featured plenty and earning strikes. Four-seamer is now earning whiffs–wait. 1/25 That’s not what we’re looking for. Ahhhh. Sub-60% strikes on both four-seamers and curveballs. There’s yer problem. That should be better and I’m starting him against Atlanta. He’s grooving. (View Game Card)
Reid Detmers (LAA) vs HOU (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 84 pitches.
He had three of four starts with 5 ER and has since killed it with just 3 ER in his last three. The slider is crushing, the curveball is suddenly returning strikes (73% clip!) and we love this. Yes, I’m starting him in the tough Camden Yards matchup next. (View Game Card)
Peter Lambert (HOU) @ LAA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 90 pitches.
He’s a solid Toby who was Singled Out. Thanks for NOTHING, Koufax. How many runs did he allow? Thanks for JUST A LITTLE, Koufax. Seriously, he struck out batters to end innings, save for one jam with a groundout. He’s getting whiffs with breakers and changeups and I hope it means his rising strikeout rate sticks around as he makes a play to become a Holly. (View Game Card)
Jake Bennett (BOS) @ ATH (L) – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 88 pitches.
We had a Careful, Icarus in Sacré Verde with a two-run shot in the seventh on a solid upstairs 1-2 four-seamer that may not have left other ballparks. That said, his changeup was a little less reliable than usual and Bennett got away with a fair number of pitches down the heart of the plate. I still like him, but I question if he can be the legit SWATCH his initial outings suggested. He’s a questionable arm against the Dodgers next, but I don’t blame you for giving it a shot on a Sunday. (View Game Card)
Anthony Kay (CHW) vs NYY (L) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 97 pitches.
This is pretty sweet against the Pinstripes. Love the sinker finding its way on the inner half to LHB for a second straight start, and he’s still working the edges of the zone well. Now with an easy schedule of @TBR, CLE, @DET, I’m game. It’ll be more than 0-Kay. (View Game Card)
Michael Lorenzen (COL) @ SDP (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 93 pitches.
Yep. That’s Lorenzen. He’s still going…weak.
Michael King (SDP) vs COL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 98 pitches.
Bleeeegh. A rough third inning with two longballs off questionable fastballs did most of the damage (and two hits off a solid changeup and poor slider), while his slowball and sweeper went to town against the Rockies otherwise. Welp, it’s the Giants next and we’re going to keep riding it there. It’s a Dusty Donut, y’all, not a moment of despair. (View Game Card)
Bubba Chandler (PIT) vs ARI (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 91 pitches.
Now THIS is a moment of despair. I was truly hoping last outing was him turning the corner at a 90-degree angle, but nay, we saw Bubba lose vert here and allow runs in each of his four frames. I still like that he’s throwing a tighter slider at higher velocity and he held the extra horizontal action on the four-seamer, but a pull down to 15/16″ of vert vs. the 17/18″ is a bummer, while the slider and four-seamer command are not splitting the zone effectively. It’s Cincy ahead, which is a clear pass, and it’s back to the wire, unless you’re willing to stash and hope this was just an off day despite legit changes. (View Game Card)
Landen Roupp (SFG) vs MIL (L) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 84 pitches.
Bleeeegh. That command I talk about so often with Roupp was off, leading to a HAISTBMBWT?! with more walks than punchouts. Expect better with a great schedule ahead and brush it off. (View Game Card)
Slade Cecconi (CLE) @ CIN (ND) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 84 pitches.
Yeaaaah. Stop sending my fliers for those Slade Brigade meetings. Please. But he was up 1-2 ticks! AND LOOK WHAT THAT GOT HIM. Okay, okay, no need to yell. (View Game Card)
Shane Bieber (TOR) @ WSN (L) – 0.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 Hits, 6 BBs, 0 Ks – 0 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 42 pitches.
So, uh, about that feel I said he found last start. I hope he’s alright. This was a nightmare with a 36% strike rate. Bieber, stop picking up the phone when Imai calls. If there’s no injury here, call it an off day. (View Game Card)
Justin Wrobleski (LAD) vs SEA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 102 pitches.
Four HRs?! Even this doesn’t lift his HR/9 above 0.96 (he held a 0.67 hr/9 prior to this one!), with three coming off excellent two-strike pitches that I honestly can’t believe were taken out of the park. It’s a One Night Bland, and I’m happy he’s still throwing 70%+ strikes with both his slider and four-seamer, with 94/95 mph velocity. (View Game Card)
Luis Castillo (SEA) @ LAD (ND) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 11 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 90 pitches.
I wasn’t high on Castillo in general, and this was the Dodgers. You didn’t need me telling you to avoid this one. This sure doesn’t help his odds of getting traded for the salary dump, though, and it may be why the Mariners are leaning on moving Hancock instead. At any rate, please don’t start Castillo outside AL-Only formats. (View Game Card)
Michael McGreevy (STL) vs CHC (L) – 1.2 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 63 pitches.
This is the floor you’re risking with McGreevy as a pitch-to-contact arm. A little surprising it came in his favorable home park, and we can all yell at Koufax together if it makes you feel better. Don’t rule out redemption in Toronto and Rockie Road up next.
Dean Kremer (BAL) @ DET (L) – 4.0 IP, 8 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 81 pitches.
Yikes. This was a mess with cutters and splitters failing to return strikes – his two most important pitches on a given night. He could be fine in two of his next three – LAA, @TEX, @TBR – but maybe it’s time to consider him Dean Wolf again. After all, he kills it once every full moon. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
AJ Smith-Shawver vs. New York Mets – He’s returning from TJS and throwing 97+ mph. I’m so curious how this goes.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
