Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Cristian Javier (HOU) vs BOS (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 85 pitches.
The return of former aces from TJS is always an exciting moment of the season and Cristian Javier is the latest to take the pearl for the first time in over a year. Despite his lackluster 2023 followed by his torn UCL in early 2024, Javier displayed plenty of what got us excited in 2022 with a lovely 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 85 pitches (W) performance hosting the Sawx in Houston. In fact, he was bamboozled for a Crawfish boxes (I know) shot from Bregman like old times, leading to his sole two runs before recording an out. That’s right, five shutout with just three baserunners after.
The skills are close to what they were in 2022. The velocity is the biggest improvement at a steady 93/94 mph throughout the entire start, suggesting it may not come with the standard decline of a tick after the adrenaline of the season debut dissipates. His sweeper has a good amount of depth with great precision away to RHB that he struggled with incessantly for the past two years, and the intent to go upstairs with his heater is still very present…though a 24% NC Rate due to many misses far too high is hopefully just a momentary blip.
His changeup is back to its 2022 velocity at 85 mph, though the changeup was at its best after the 2022 season and I hope he can maintain its 60% strike rate we saw in this one – yes, even with the ones that floated. He’s using the pitch exclusively to LHB with a welcome new sinker entering the fray to RHB. Sure, it’s not exceptional on its own, but it acts as a third offering to the four-seamer and sweeper and having a different fastball shape than the 18″ vert four-seamer is sure to add a little extra hesitation during swing decisions.
There is one other element I need to mention. Part of Javier’s success in 2022 was a flat 1.4 HAVAA on his four-seamer that helped create an abusrd amount of surprise rise on his four-seamer. We saw a 1.1 HAVAA in 2023 and 2024 and it looks to be the same in 2025. With just six feet of extension (blegh), sitting 93/94 mph (vs. 92.5 and 91.5 of his previous two seasons, respectively) does help, but Javier’s heater is just a bit worse without the stellar attack angle. It’s still great, it just makes me a little concerned that we won’t see a consistent second half filled with comparisons to other studs, as Javier did in his 2022 campaign, where he matched rookie Spencer Strider.
If he’s still out there, I’m going for it. The wider mix with a strong sweeper feel and still-great four-seamer is all I needed to see and to see him toss 85 pitches out of the gate is icing on the cake. And they say there’s no country for post-TJS men.
Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:
José Soriano (LAA) vs LAD (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 91 pitches.
You can’t induce headaches if you’re always the same thing, eh? The sinker was fantastic and the curve did just enough to earn five strikeouts and let the sinker do the rest. And the splitter! You mean the 31% strike pitch with 1/13 whiffs? Yeah! Why are you excited? Why not! Uhhhhhhh. He’s the same guy, y’all.
Taijuan Walker (PHI) @ CIN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 93 pitches.
Absolutely bonkers. BONKERS! Koufax, why do you like this man? He gives me head pats. YOU’RE NOT A DOG. Whatever, here’s your Gold Star. This is likely it for Walker with Nola up next and I’ll give him huge props for nailing the edges with splitters and cutters, but hot dang was this a ridiculous stretch.
Yu Darvish (SDP) @ SFG (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 84 pitches.
Okay ,we’re good now, yeah? It wasn’t compelling watching Darvish succeed with over 55% fastballs + 17% splitters, which doesn’t leave a whole lot for his traditionally great brekers. That said, he spotted the sinker delicately to RHB + the four-seamer was up-and-away beautifully to RHB. We’ll take it, we’re just not out of the woods yet.
Jose Quintana (MIL) vs PIT (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 89 pitches.
He was a streaming option and he did exactly what we wanted him to do. But the strikeouts! That’s not what we wanted him to do. Oh. Right. With @CIN and SFG up next, we’re holding and starting.
Chris Paddack (DET) @ CHW (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 76 pitches.
Boy was this a mess against RHB. He barreled four-seamers down the pipe and somehow earned five outs including a strikeout with 18/20 strikes and zero hits. Blame it on the CrySox. He had a great BSB working against LHB, though, save for one changeup sent over the wall in the fifth, and I was sad to see him pulled with a runner on in the sixth for a Philly. HE HAD IT.
Chase Dollander (COL) @ STL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 92 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! The four-seamer performed decently well while the cutter was a surprise pitch over the plate and curves fell for more strikes than usual. There was even an effective changeup to LHB in the mix and…all of that good returned a 1.60 WHIP and just five innings with as many strikeouts. And no dub. Ah, yes. No dub. No thanks.
Elvis Peguero (CHW) vs DET (ND) – 1.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 45% CSW, 29 pitches.
He opened for Tyler Alexander who at least had a chance to vulture a Win but the CrySox failed to score a second run for him. It was still a fantastic effort for the short-handed T-Lex – 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BB, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 65 pitches – and let’s be thankful he helped as you desperately chased for that Win.
Will Warren (NYY) vs MIN (W) – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 45% CSW, 85 pitches.
Ohhhhh baby. Two solo shots are annoying (especially off two breakers), but his sinker was elite at snatching the outside edge to RHB at 44% CSW, while he landed his sweeper behind it constantly for 57% CSW. The four-seamer ate up RHB as well and it’s wild to see Warren becoming a command arm. Just get that changeup going and life is GORGEOUS. Maybe even a few surprise sinkers inside to RHB too, you know?
Miles Mikolas (STL) vs COL (ND) – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 76 pitches.
This felt like an ummovable object meeting an unstoppable force and I guess Away From Coors Is Undefeated. Good ole Rockie Road. I will give props to Mikolas throwing the 88/89 mph slider down-and-away consistently to RHB, which is really all you need to do against them to have success.
Bailey Falter (KCR) vs WSN (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 76 pitches.
After going slider-heavy in his last start, this was the game of trying to figure out his curveball, which went 44% strikes on 36% usage. You know, I actually love that Falter is doing this. I can’t say it for certainty (especially since this was more LHB than the RHB-heavy start previously, but still more curves than sliders!), but Falter looks to be leaning into the opportunity and instead of trying to be his best self on a given night, he’s testing things out. Taking advantage of the opportunity to see if the curve can be the pitch. Or the Slider. KEEP DOING IT. The Royals won this game, after all.
Andrew Abbott (CIN) vs PHI (L) – 7.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 104 pitches.
Abbott has been a difficult arm to quantify over the season, but this one is easy. His changeup was incredible. Its 30% SwStr rate catalyzed his co-share of the Gallows Pole and his four-seamer confounded in the same area while the breakers denied respite over the zone for batters as they found the edges, too. Thanks for an unreal season, Abbott. I’m sorry I didn’t trust you sooner.
Zebby Matthews (MIN) @ NYY (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 99 pitches.
I feel as if it’s a rite of passage for rookies to display all the skills – 18 whiffs, 37% CSW with a 9:1 K to BB – and still produce poor questionable ratios. You see how good this kid is. This was a four pitch mix of four-seamers, sliders, changeups, and cutters (and five curveballs and two sinkers we’ll ignore), with each returning at least three whiffs + a slider that was so dang deadly to LHB for five strikeouts. Opposite-handed batters! That heater is at 96/97 mph and still needs to be better at finding its spots inside the zone (two solo shots off it. Whoops), and maybe mixing in the cutter a touch more will keep away the longball. He’s so legit and deserving of a co-share of the Gallows Pole.
Logan Webb (SFG) vs SDP (L) – 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 98 pitches.
Ugh, this was a Careful, Icarus with three runs capped by a two-run blast in the seventh. He even went five shutout beforehand. So. Close. I know how rough it’s been with Webb lately, but it’s sure to be productive over the final two months.
Ryan Pepiot (TBR) @ ATH (W) – 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 85 pitches.
There were many Careful, Icarus games on Monday and Pepiot’s hurt plenty with three runs in the seventh off a Soderstrom three-run blast. Sigh. It wasn’t Pepiot’s best outing with hittable changeups and four-seamers while the slider was able to return a decent number of strikes but just 2/21 whiffs. He’s moving closer to HIPSTER land, which I really hate saying, but that’s likely too harsh given six innings of production + Sacré Verde. And hey, there’s plenty of room to grow.
Cade Cavalli (WSN) @ KCR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 88 pitches.
I’m shocked to tell you that the velocity was still up with 98 mph on four-seamers and 85/86 mph on the curveball. Sadly, that hook was unreliable with just a 41% strike rate + a trio of hits to RHB when getting the zone, while the four-seamer’s shape does him no favors when down the pipe. He was a bit unlucky with his sinker as it found the edges exclusively yet was smacked hard twice, including a longball, and that should return better results in the future (though, its movement is suspect), and the changeup is…a work in progress. This is really the “Bad curveball feel” game and is a part of the Shag Rug. He’s still an arm to watch, especially if those two cutters become ten or twenty cutters…One of them was legit and the other not so much. I really want that 93 mph pitch to be a thing to mix with the curve.
Jeffrey Springs (ATH) vs TBR (L) – 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 88 pitches.
Revenge is a dish best served colder than whatever time has past since they dealt him away, eh? No sunshine and rainbows here, though Springs is now sporting a cutter 19% of the time to RHB that returned, uh, 39% strikes. It’s a good idea if he can make it work, though it’s not that different of a shape and velo than the questionable slider he’s had for a bit.
Ryne Nelson (ARI) @ TEX (ND) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 97 pitches.
He went five innings of one run ball, then trouble came in the sixth with four runs sealed by a three-run shot from Langford. Nooooo. It’s an even better four-seamer than usual at 96/97 mph (not 95) and 20″ of vert without the steep attack angle of the other high-vert arms, and I’m still such a fan. That said, he really shouldn’t be relying on heaters 83% of the time. Yes, it’s because his other pitches weren’t reliable, but we gotta fix that.
Andrew Heaney (PIT) @ MIL (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 90 pitches.
You didn’t trust Heaney before, why start now?
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) vs ARI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 86 pitches.
Aces gonna be one of the three AGA arms to go on Monday. Spoiler alert: All three returned 5+ ER. What is this. It’s especially rude from Eovaldi just after I gave him his tag. Whatever, this was a trio of HRs with a pair of two-run shots in the third. Whatareyagonnado.
Garrett Crochet (BOS) @ HOU (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 86 pitches.
Aces gonna get Singled Out by the Astros, though he did toss a few too many pitches down the heart of the plate. Welp, we move on.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) @ LAA (L) – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 5 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 99 pitches.
Aces gonna make us frustrated on the one day a week we actually get to start Yamamoto. He couldn’t steal strikes on his heater (which was shockingly upstairs more than usual and he didn’t get a single bite out of the zone. COME ON.), and his splitter + curve were hit when flipped into the zone. It was just one of those days.
Game of the Day
Nestor Cortes vs. Robbie Ray – I’m hoping we see Cortes take a legit step forward + Ray do his thing.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
