Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup – Faltered State

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Tuesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.  

Bailey Falter (PIT) @ NYM (ND) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 82 pitches.

I wanted to take a moment to acknowledge Bailey Falter, who showed some promise in his start against Atlanta previously and came through on that potential with a great 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 82 pitches line against the Mets.

The goal of Falter is to nail his heaters upstairs, toss sliders and curveballs for strikes, and hope one of them turns into a whiff pitch for the day. The curve was that offering here (6 whiffs and 50% CSW across 20 thrown!), but the fastball precision was the real hero as it kept the Mets on their toes and opened the door for plenty of slider outs. This works against middling teams and with his next three games coming against STL, CHC, @STL, I wouldn’t be shocked if Falter produces in at least two of them. Consider him as a 15-team option and as a deep streamer for 12-teamers.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:

 

Bryce Elder (ATL) vs NYY (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 94 pitches.

Oh hey, it’s Elder being a Toby and still having solid pitch separation as he earned a Win. He’s a discount Brady Singer for possibly the best team to pitch for. He’s worth your attention as a streamer still, at least.

Logan Allen (CLE) @ CIN (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 87 pitches.

Hot dang, look at you! There’s your Gold Star as I absolutely didn’t expect shutout baseball with a co-share of the Gallows Pole from Allen in Cincy. This was a version I haven’t seen from him with precise changeups armside and cutters + sweepers deftly spotted on the opposite corner. Fastballs hovered the edges as well and this was a man possessed. I guess we’re in for the Tigers next after brilliance like this.

Michael Wacha (SD) vs BAL (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 77 pitches.

This had all the makings of a Still ILL and yet Wacha didn’t care in the slightest, producing across the board. What a dude. The changeup isn’t the super-mega-awesome pitch we’ve seen before, but he dodged the heart of the plate well with fastballs and cutters, while the curve got him much needed strikes. Guess we’re picking up and holding Wacha now, huh?

Alex Faedo (DET) @ MIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 81 pitches.

Look at that King Cole from Faedo, facing the Twins a second time and still having an elite slider, this time at 50% CSW to make sure he actually returned production this time around. The change and fastball were a bit better as well, though he mostly stayed low with everything, and I’m not sure that’s the most sustainable approach. It’s not a Zac Gallen four-seamer that can steal called strikes low and the change still has some work, but that slider is a strong offering and if he keeps earning a 50% CSW on it, why wouldn’t this work? Suitman whispers in my ear Wait, that’s not a reasonable expectation? Fine, maybe don’t start him against the Guardians.

Jakob Junis (SF) vs TB (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 62 pitches.

Junis split this with Sean Manaea, who followed for 3.1 shutout frames of his own. How do the Giants keep doing this? Junis’ slider was as good as it was at its peak with the Royals and sadly I can’t rely on that, nor the chance of five frames in the future. But hey, this was cool. For a bullpen game.

Joe Mantiply (ARI) @ COL (ND) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 13 pitches.

Hey, I’m Joe Man. people stare suspiciously, wondering if you’re just wearing a human suit …tiply. These are the things I do for you to write something about a bullpen game.

Zack Wheeler (PHI) @ TOR (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 107 pitches.

Aces gonna ace, even with the four walks. Don’t you dare doubt Wheeler.

Jordan Montgomery (TEX) vs LAA (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 91 pitches.

A Gallows Pole from The Bear the start after I pull him down the ranks? NOW THAT’S SOME GOOD PITCHER LISTIN’. Thanks for finally having both your changeup and curveball working at the same time. It’s been too long.

Yusei Kikuchi (TOR) vs PHI (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 84 pitches.

The glorious stretch of Kikuchi continues onward and I think he’s demanding yet another raise on The List next week. It’s pretty dang awesome. That slider precision is just so good these days.

Bobby Miller (LAD) vs MIL (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 74 pitches.

74% curveball strikes and fastballs earning outs, allowing him to go six frames under 75 pitches. And they pulled him. COME ON, LET THE MAN COOK. Hey, where’s the slider? Good question. Just 5/8 strikes as it returned outs but zero CSW. Yes, I want it to be a larger part of his game moving forward (it’s where the strikeouts will come from) and just imagine how good he’ll be when it’s combined with this curve and heaters.

David Peterson (NYM) vs PIT (ND) – 3.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 6 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 91 pitches.

When you walk nearly double the number of frames you pitch, you know there’s a problem. At least he’s up to 91 pitches, I guess.

Dakota Hudson (STL) vs OAK (W) – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 101 pitches.

Hudson is still your desperate Quality Start play, while it’s cool to see the slider return 8/37 whiffs along the way (and just three strikeouts, so does it really matter?). His command is far from exceptional, though, making this a clear Blame it on the Athletics as you know better than to actually believe in this.

Zack Littell (TB) @ SF (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 79 pitches.

Littell had his revenge game against the Giants and came through for those who streamed him. Sadly it didn’t come with a Win (come on Rays, do something), but Littell did his part. I’d hold for Rockie Road next, I really don’t see why not.

Ty Blach (COL) vs ARI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 80 pitches.

It’s a mediocre sinker that heavily relied on called strikes and balls in play finding gloves + an awfully blegh set of secondaries, led by a well-spotted changeup. Voila! Decency in Coors.

Bailey Ober (MIN) vs DET (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 87 pitches.

It’s good to be back with the Bailey Special with much better pitch separation in this one than last time out. I dig it.

Graham Ashcraft (CIN) vs CLE (L) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 102 pitches.

It’s slightly better than a VPQS, but with a Loss and just two strikeouts, this isn’t much of anything. It’s a new slider at three ticks harder that looks more like a…cutter. Oh and he still throws a cutter, too. WHY. I DON’T KNOW. His other slider was his best pitch, why is he changing it and not the real cutter? Baseball, y’all. It’ll shock ya in the weirdest ways.

Kyle Hendricks (CHC) vs CWS (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 98 pitches.

Sure, a VPQS is not ideal, but this is the standard Hendricks game these days. And now it’s Detroit + Pittsburgh and there’s no way you’re holding back.

Adrian Houser (MIL) @ LAD (L) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 75 pitches.

It almost worked. So close. It still boggles my mind that Houser can have games like this – just one ER or two more outs away from legit production with 37% CSW – despite an approach and arsenal that shouldn’t cut it.

Luis Severino (NYY) @ ATL (L) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 83 pitches.

At least he’s throwing ched? His four-seamer sat 98 mph here, while the cutter was a whopping 92 mph offering and returned a 50% CSW. Maybe this actually works if he didn’t face Atlanta. THERE’S A CHANCE.

Touki Toussaint (CWS) @ CHC (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 5 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 87 pitches.

Touki still has that good curveball, but you can’t trust anything else. I still wonder if he can find something else to properly support it.

Lucas Giolito (LAA) @ TEX (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 110 pitches.

Yeah, that seems about right. Giolito came out pumping GAS, though, sitting two ticks up on EVERYTHING. We’re talking nearly 95 mph fastballs and looking more like classic Giolito. Huh. I wonder if this weren’t Texas if we’d have seen a legit breakout start. Okay, now you’ve got me excited for his start hosting the Reds.

Johnny Cueto (MIA) vs HOU (ND) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 96 pitches.

It was Houston and while I was holding out a touch of hope for some Cueto magic, it was a massive long shot.

Cristian Javier (HOU) @ MIA (ND) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 95 pitches.

Nick, I’m done. DONE! What if I told you his slider had a 77% strike rate and his curve returned 73% strikes? So why was this terr—oh. Yeah. Just 2/41 four-seamer whiffs. WHY NOT BOTH?! I don’t know, I really don’t. And yet, we have to believe the four-seamer will be better soon, if not by next start (back-to-back games against the Red Sox). Surely he can make it all work…? It feels delusional to suggest holding at this point, but it’s what my gut says. Your gut can be really dumb sometimes. I know. Sigh. I know.

Nick Pivetta (BOS) @ WSH (ND) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 86 pitches.

Y’all remember the reason why I’ve liked Pivetta, right? His slider command down-and-gloveside has been fantastic. Well, it wasn’t tonight. The first time in weeks and it’s the glue that holds it all together. This isn’t to say it can’t come back, and I won’t rule out a rebound against the Yankees over the weekend. However, don’t feel like you need to hold tight – he’ll get the Dodgers and Astros after that and it may be wise to jump ship now with this haze for his next outing. Just a thought.

Emerson Hancock (SEA) @ KC (ND) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 76 pitches.

Hancock was cruising until the fifth, where he got two outs, allowed a run, then surrendered a grand slam. Wait, that’s a terrible end to that story. What if I threw in a HAISTBMBWT?! too? HOW CAN YOU BE SO CRUEL. This was a bit painful to watch in the fifth, though he wasn’t flexing the best slider or changeup prior. This was fastball-city and I need a little more than that to trust against the Astros. Dangit Hancock, that changeup was supposed to be more than this.

Spenser Watkins (OAK) @ STL (L) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 90 pitches.

Wait, this didn’t work? Why yes, it’s elementary Mr. Wa–Please. Don’t say it.

Josiah Gray (WSH) vs BOS (L) – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 83 pitches.

Savant has him down for seven different pitch types here. Sadly, he can’t hang his hat on any of them at the moment, though I applaud him for at least experimenting and trying to figure something out.

Jordan Lyles (KC) vs SEA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 16% CSW, 91 pitches.

Every year, there are guys like Lyles who are fans in an empty building. They continue to do their thing without anyone benefiting from it.

Jack Flaherty (BAL) @ SD (L) – 3.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 84 pitches.

Ho boy. It’s awfully strange to see seven runs on just four hits, but the Padres resisted some awfully competitive fastballs and sliders and Flaherty was punished. I don’t think he pitched nearly as poorly as the line suggests, but you may want to hold off against the Jays up next. I still think he’s 12-teamer rosterable as the slider and curve still looked great + he was flirting with 94 mph velocity, even touching 97 mph.

 

Game of the Day 

Aaron Nola vs. Kevin Gausman – This will be stellar, though we will be watching NYY vs. ATL as a community on Playback FOR FREE Wednesday night at 7:00 pm. Come through!

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

Have Questions? – Join my morning Playback.tv livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.

Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)