Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Spencer Strider (ATL) vs CHW (L) – 3.0 IP, 7 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 68 pitches.
So, uh, Spencer Strider. Yeah, we know Nick. Let me get it out, alright? After allowing 5 ER and 8 ER in his last two outings, a date with the CrySox seemed like a decent palate cleanser. Whoops. It was a quiet three frames with just a solo shot denting his line until he allowed the first six batters of the fourth to reach base, getting pulled with two on (who eventually scored) for a final line of 3.0 IP, 7 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 68 pitches (L). I want to drop him. Honestly, not the worst idea.
It’s the same problem as always, but the consequence was a little different. The four-seamer has gone from one of the best PLV pitches in the majors (5.50 PLV in 2023 would be #1 in 2025) to a pedestrian 4.99 this season, with three main elements taking a step back. The velocity is down over a full tick, he’s lost two inches of vert, and his attack angle has gone from a flat 1.3 HAVAA to a standard 1.1 HAVAA. It still could be a strong fastball if just one of those marks declined, but all three? That’s a problem.
Then why hasn’t Strider been crushed all season? Because his slider is still fantastic. Its 26% SwStr rate sits among the best in baseball, though it has been a product of batters chasing heaters and willing to swing through the slider that Strider generally keeps down. But when Strider has to lean more on that slider and inside the zone because his four-seamer isn’t getting the job done, well, that opens the door for six hits on the slide piece, including a BOMB from Luis Robert Jr. on a front-door hanger (reminded me of Soler’s longball. You know the one), and the house crumbled in a heartbeat.
I know you want some good news, but this won’t be it. Strider’s next opponents do him no favors with @PHI, SEA, HOU up next (even if the slider should be better against the RHB-focused Houston crew). Given that we’ve seen 17 starts without much change in Strider’s ability and 60% of his starts coming with six strikeouts or fewer (and a 5.24 ERA, 1.43 WHIP…), it might be time for you to try something else. Remove the name value prejudice and recognize that he breaks the Huascar Rule.
Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:
Jack Flaherty (DET) vs HOU (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 90 pitches.
THERE HE IS. A King Cole for Flaherty on the back of the Astros’ struggles to figure out when Flaherty was throwing a heater over the plate or a breaker that zoomed out of it. Those hesitations helped Jackie Flan to return 36% called strikes on his four-seamer while all three pitches returned a trio of strikeouts. I hope you’re still on this train with me.
Robbie Ray (SFG) @ SDP (W) – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 105 pitches.
Aces gonna earn a Gallows Pole in one of the best games I’ve seen from him all season. His four-seamer was spotted better than ever at the very top of the zone (71% strikes and seven whiffs without a single hit on 48 thrown!), creating a gorgeous BSB with changeups and sliders underneath + a sprinkle of curves over the plate, as all four pitches returned at least a 63% strike rate. ATTA BOY.
Freddy Peralta (MIL) @ CHC (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 95 pitches.
That’s a 15-5 record for Peralta on the season (Brewers have the best record in baseball. Yeah.) and I imagine y’all think he deserves AGA. I want to give it to him, really, I do. I think I get a little annoyed about his lack of efficiency – he’s had just one game above six frames this year (8 IP on April 2nd). But fine, if he dominates as expected against the Giants, I’ll give it to him.
Gavin Williams (CLE) @ ARI (W) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 99 pitches.
Ayyyy we’ll take it. The extension is back to seven feet (See? Just a hangover start before) and the heater was locating well upstairs at 97 mph. Sure, the curve and cutter were a bit chaotic (24% NC Rate on the cutter is hilariously terrible), but the strong heater + the curve showing up when needed makes me happy. He really is such a tumultuous arm, tip-toeing between Cherry Bomb and HIPSTER.
Trevor Rogers (BAL) @ BOS (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 98 pitches.
Funny, I kinda thought I was being too aggressive with Rogers’ ranking on The List yesterday, but hot dang, look at that line in Fenway. He. Cannot. Be. Stopped. The fact that he’s doing it with 92/93 mph velocity is bonkers, but the 18-19″ ride on the sinker + breakers showing up for 7/24 whiffs is such a welcome sight. KEEP ON RIDING.
Brady Singer (CIN) @ LAA (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 88 pitches.
Yessss. It was shocking to watch Singer throw more four-seamers than sinkers to RHB, though the former was used to change eye level and returned a trio of outs without any damage, with the slider and sweeper as the main foundational pitches (and five cutters…one allowed a hit and probably isn’t worthwhile). This wasn’t the absurd command of his last outing and I’d be careful against the Dodgers next, but ready to jump back in against the Cardinals after.
Eury Pérez (MIA) vs STL (ND) – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 86 pitches.
He ran into trouble in the fifth and I’m sad to report the changeup did not take a step forward here (kinda a step back at just seven thrown) while the breakers weren’t anything special, save for the sweeper acting like a strong companion to the heater against RHB. The heater is still dope and makes us feel dope and we keep starting the man.
Cade Horton (CHC) vs MIL (L) – 2.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 61 pitches.
Horton wasn’t looking right and eventually came out due to a blister. Ugh. I expect him to go on the IL as he swaps with Taillon as the Cubs can’t risk this getting worse – at least skip his next start. I don’t think you need to hold through the haze as Horton is good, but not league-winning. Go get a solid streamer instead.
Ranger Suárez (PHI) vs SEA (W) – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 102 pitches.
Yeaaaaah, I think Suárez is just fine, y’all. The pitch separation is still stellar.
Dustin May (BOS) vs BAL (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 100 pitches.
We saw May feature four pitches heavily in the mix once again, featuring cutters fourteen times along with a relatively even split of four-seamers and sinkers to LHB (sinkers were the whole story against RHB). The velocity fell back down to what we saw with the Dodgers, sadly (a tick down to 94/95), and this kinda felt like the same guy with a little more focus on cutters. I guess that’s okay? I don’t want to chase him against the Yankees, and I’d circle the Pirates after that.
Paul Skenes (PIT) vs TOR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 96 pitches.
Aces gonna earn a co-share of the Gallows Pole while pushing near 100 pitches. Thanks, Pirates. We needed this.
Michael Wacha (KCR) vs TEX (W) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 93 pitches.
This was a heavy focus on four-seamers and changeups going BSB to LHB, and Koufax stuck him in some jams with those heaters returning hits on all five knocked into play. Yes, it was a Philly and a Careful, Icarus, but let’s be happy for the dub and the bullpen for stranding the final runner. I feel like Wacha is the most Toby of all. Not the best one, just the one who wears the brownest of brown suits.
Kevin Gausman (TOR) @ PIT (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 96 pitches.
This was an outing of what we generally want to see: double-digit splitter whiffs + double-digit four-seamer called strikes (hey, kinda like Singer but different!) and some well-timed hits from the Pirates returned both runs in a generally boring outing. That’s okay though, right? Nah, that 1.40 WHIP hurts more than the 3.60 ERA and four strikeouts help. WELL ALRIGHT THEN. You know my feelings about Gausman – he’s a “HISPTER” who many just put up with – and it’s up to you if that’s your jam.
Kyle Freeland (COL) vs LAD (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 72 pitches.
Freeland has limited upside, pitches his home games at Coors Field, and doesn’t deserve a spot on your team. This should be the blurb for every Colorado starter.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) @ COL (ND) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 103 pitches.
Aces gonna almost ace. That ERA isn’t ideal and you didn’t get a Win, but being an ace is ensuring you don’t get burned as much as others while still carrying legit upside. This is fine.
Zac Gallen (ARI) vs CLE (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 91 pitches.
You know, this ain’t so bad for Gallen. The changeup showed up in a big way against the LHB-heavy crew and while it sure isn’t an electric outing, the man gave you a 0.83 WHIP and a PQS. Not bad. Here’s to a happy day strutting down the Reds Carpet over the weekend.
Yoendrys Gómez (CHW) @ ATL (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 90 pitches.
You know, Gómez is kinda good…? There’s polish left to be added, of course (his LHB approach is a mess over the plate), but his heater is 94 mph with 16″ vert and a flat 1.2 HAVAA (making it an effective vert over 16″) + seven feet of extension that he located upstairs to RHB. And not to LHB. Right right. The sweeper was effective as a pairing with the heater to RHB (4/16 whiffs and 68% strikes), and the real flaw here was the super hittable changeup over the plate to LHB. Oh, and the sinker that he split his four-seamers to LHB that doesn’t quite make sense to me. Suitman whispers into my ear RIGHT. The curveball. It has solid two-plane break at 81 mph, too, but a 33% strike rate ain’t it. You can see how it works and this was just his second start. He’ll get the Twins next and I kinda feel like that’s a decent deep stream. Be cautious, though. The Shag Rug is very present.
Victor Mederos (LAA) vs CIN (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 95 pitches.
He’s a unique one with his 19-20″ ride sinker + sliders and sweepers on the same plane (all around 4-8″ of vert) and wonky breaker command. Don’t overlook the fact that Mederos was sprawled across the Reds Carpet for this one – he’s not the guy you want.
Matthew Liberatore (STL) @ MIA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 75 pitches.
His velocity fell off across this start and I implore y’all to consider Liberatore as a streamer only. But he gets the Rays, @CIN, ATH up next. That does seem okay. I personally think I’m out, though. This has all the signs of fatigue hitting a younger arm.
Jack Leiter (TEX) @ KCR (L) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 81 pitches.
Man, there’s so much potential here that Jack Zippo can’t wield properly. It’s still such a beautiful four-seamer with regards to Fan4+ and I just wish he could locate it better. We’re talking 96/97 mph with a 1.9 HAVAA + 17″ of vert at seven feet of extension. THE DREAM. But he spots it down the pipe while the slider is all over the place. Sigh. He’s a PEAS and even if he has a brilliant outing next time, we can’t buy into it.
Nestor Cortes (SDP) vs SFG (L) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 90 pitches.
I really love the changeup from Cortes, but it has to be better than 43% strikes if the cutter is also going to sit under a 50% strike rate. That said, he was bamboozled in the first with three HRs making up all four runs on the night as he settled into the guy we want him to be for the following five frames. Let’s ignore his next one against the Dodgers, but jump back it for the Twins and Orioles after. I think he’ll be in rhythm by then and well worth your time in 12-teamers.
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) @ DET (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 90 pitches.
Bleeeggggh. I’m expecting The Pasta Pirate to turn a corner as he continues to shake off rust now that he’s three games removed from the IL. The curve is looking fantastic, but the rest is still a bit of a struggle, especially his four-seamer and sweeper. However, the dude has 7.2 feet of extension and a 1.8 HAVAA with a wide arsenal, whiffable breakers and it’s clear he’s fighting himself more than usual at the moment. There will be a game where it comes together and expect excellence after.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) @ PHI (L) – 2.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 15% CSW, 65 pitches.
Aces gonna get walloped in the second inning. We’re talking two HRs, tons of hits, and some terrible command over the plate, and I’ll continue to express my frustration that Gilbert just can’t locate his arsenal inside the zone. He could have a historic season if he could just execute the BSB. Whatareyagonnado.
Game of the Day
Bryce Miller vs. Cristopher Sánchez – He’s back! And there are so many good games today. Watch them live with the community at Playback.tv/pitcherlist.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
