Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Wednesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Parker Messick (CLE) @ ARI (ND) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 83 pitches.
We had another debut on Wednesday night and you’re wondering if Parker Messick is the latest prospect to chase off the waiver wire after an impressive 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 83 pitches (ND) premier. No, he’s not the next Lionel Messi and I question if his ceiling is worth enduring the Shag Rug, but he is part of a mold that has been at the forefront of many recent conversations: The low-90s southpaw with a changeup.
You may have read The Year of The Southpaw – an incredible article in The Athletic from Stephen J. Nesbitt – that explores the rise of left-handed success this year in the majors. I’ve been chatting about the topic with Eric Samulski and Eno Sarris on our respective podcasts this week and Messick fits the mold that we’ve seen from many Top 50 SPs we didn’t expect to be there (Ranger, Boyd, Cameron, Bubic, Rogers, to name a few): A 93 mph four-seamer upstairs that has success despite mediocre marks under the hood (6.3 feet extension, 16″ vert, 1.1 HAVAA – Maybe there’s a bit of surprising rise?) merged with a changeup that features good movement at 85 mph and a propensity to sit away from RHB. Yes, there’s a slider and curve sprinkled in decently well (1/19 whiffs) and a sinker saved for LHB (as he should, despite poor movement), but this is the Boyd mold at heart. In fact, it’s Cantillo without the extension and a little worse changeup feel at a touch higher velo (likely nullified by the foot difference in extension).
Is that enough? Is he indeed viable out of the box? Watching him pitch is a bit jarring with his flailing follow-through that makes the eye believe he’s wild, yet none of his pitches returned a sub 62% strike rate and his four-seamer’s 116 plvLoc+ was the best of all SP yesterday. He looks like a Toby who gets a boost for being a left-hander with a changeup. That means the Rays are next and it could be perfectly fine. Then again, we’re still in the moment of “I don’t know how real this is” and given the skillset that could range from Boyd to Martín Pérez, you may want to wait one or two more starts first. At the very least, don’t expect a strikeout per inning moving forward.
Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:
Hurston Waldrep (ATL) vs CHW (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 87 pitches.
Wow, this is something else. Waldrep is in love with his splitter with 40% usage and given its 71% strike rate with just one hit allowed, uh, yeah, I’m falling for it too. Thing is, splitters are volatile creatures (Gasp!) and how much do we love the curve, cutter, slider, and sinker surrounding the signature pitch? For one, I love that he’s axed the terrible four-seamer, swapping in a 94 mph cutter (it’s kinda the same pitch) that I hope he can get low with the sinker given their ultra-steep attack angles. The curve has good movement on it, though I worry it’s a wild stallion and not one to rely on. If the splitter wasn’t there, I wouldn’t trust Waldrep and that’s where my concern lies. Can we bank on it being there more times than not? For now, fine. Let’s see against the Marlins, but likely not twice in a row against the Cubs, even with an ailing Tucker.
Cam Schlittler (NYY) @ TBR (ND) – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 95 pitches.
The dude was in the seventh with a perfect game until a hit and both walks got him pulled. Let’s all thank Luke Weaver for preventing a Careful, Icarus and preserving this glorious outing (3 ER after that effort would have felt horrible). How did Cam succeed? HE DID THE THING. The slider and sweeper were reduced to a cutter (well, funny enough, it’s the same 91 mph slider but with more drop and Savant woke up to call it a cutter regardless), and he kept the dang thing down along with the curveball. He executed the BSB y’all! That allowed the 97/98 mph four-seamer to cook upstairs with 11/63 whiffs and 35% CSW, with the curve returning so many outs in play (unfortunately, one too few). This is the dude I was waiting for. GO GET HIM.
Martín Pérez (CHW) @ ATL (L) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 74 pitches.
Hahahaha. Of course Pérez is the latest southpaw making it work. I guess it’s not so bad if Messick isn’t Boyd and turns into Pérez, eh? On the real, this was changeups away and well spotted/sequenced sinkers, cutters, four-seamers, and curveballs. Sure, Koufax helped – he always does when Martín has success – but it isn’t purely luck. He could do this again. Wait, how’d he get a loss? The CrySox defense, of course. Oh. Right.
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs STL (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 114 pitches.
Nick. NICK. Yes, I KNOW. Sandy sure looks like he’s coming back into form. The changeup was down and in town for a second straight start, returning strikes galore and a 40% CSW with 9/30 whiffs as his most thrown pitch. That led to five strikeouts off the slowballs + six outs from his fastballs and even the slider and curve looked legit. I have to say, I’m shocked the Marlins allowed Sandy, in his first season back from TJS with 127 IP to his name already in 2025, to throw 114 pitches. Doesn’t matter if he’s hurt next year if he’s not on our team. I guess. It’s a tough call now with ATL + @NYM + PHI up next. He’s obviously pitching better and his confidence is there, so you know what, let’s try one and see where we are, yeah?
Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) vs CIN (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 88 pitches.
I’m thrilled to see Kikuchi take advantage of the Reds Carpet and it’s kinda funny to see him do so with 42% curveballs. You know, the pitch that was the focus of the “praise” for Kikuchi’s success with the Astros – its elimination from his arsenal. Kikuchi is such a weird one and it’s clear the fears of the Angels’ inability to help were rational, given his shift every start. He’s a HIPSTER.
Tanner Gordon (COL) vs LAD (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 92 pitches.
Gordon has limited upside, pitches his home games at Coors Field, and doesn’t deserve a spot on your team. This should be the blurb for every Colorado starter.
JP Sears (SDP) vs SFG (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 93 pitches.
I was so curious to see what the Padres pushed Sears to work on in Triple-A and the answer is…nothing. I legt don’t see a huge difference, but I do see a higher emphasis on changeups at a 46% strike rate. Welp, that’s Koufax for the outs and I wouldn’t trust it yet.
Nick Martinez (CIN) @ LAA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 90 pitches.
Ayyyy, way to be K-Mart! The changeup was cruising with the curve and he held back the fastballs as he should. Don’t get too amped by this – Lodolo is likely back next week and it may be back in the pen for him. Sorry fella. Even if he did start, you wouldn’t want to against the Dodgers, Jays, Mets, and in Sacré Verde. Oooooof.
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) vs SEA (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 12 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 43% CSW, 89 pitches.
A Golden Goal for Luzardo is a glorious reward for those who have held through all his chaos this season. You’re likely tired of us talking about southpaw changeups, but what if I told you Luzardo axed his? Another start with minimal slowballs (just three!) as the sweeper and four-seamer were all the rage to both LHB and RHB. We’re talking 52% CSW with 9/29 whiffs to RHB and that’s pretty dang awesome. Here’s to the middle of the summer being the sole valley of the year.
Johan Oviedo (PIT) vs TOR (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 75 pitches.
Let’s chat. Oviedo has some really great skills with 7.5 feet of extension at 95 mph with a 95th percentile flat 1.7 HAVAA. OH SNAP. He also has a whiffable slider that has been his best pitch, returning 8/26 whiffs here at 77% strikes. So what’s the problem? He can’t locate the four-seamer and sinker. The latter went 1/6 strikes while the former was a 50% strike rate and rarely up, with just one in the upper third of the zone. That has been Oviedo’s issue over the years (pre-TJS, of course) and it’s hard for me to believe he’ll get there. But he did well without that! A very good point. If the slider can be this consistent, then maybe everything is fine. I’m picking him up for the Cardinals up next, even if the floor is scary if the command is just terrible. At least he’ll be over 80 pitches there.
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) vs CLE (ND) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 98 pitches.
Look at that! THE CHANGEUP! 29% usage as it looked like the Neckbeard to LHB and paired effectively with his sinker down. Both with similar movement at a seven mph gap allowed for eleven outs and just two hits between them, while the curve showed up here to help. The cutter and four-seamer were a bit worse, and at least they didn’t promote walks along the way. It’s encouraging, but not encouraging enough to start against the Brewers and Dodgers. I also still worry about the sweeper being dominant against RHB as it has in the past.
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) vs NYY (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 91 pitches.
Another six inning game of production from Rasmussen as his “limitations” were just a blip. I love this.
Charlie Morton (DET) vs HOU (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 94 pitches.
The strikeouts are flowing like my rhymes if I were any good at rapping. Or as a writer. Touché. The curve was glorious at 90% strikes and 10/29 whiffs for a whopping 59% CSW and let’s be real, if that pitch is killing it, you really can’t hold back. But he gets Sacré Verde and the Mets next. Well then, you’ve got some thinking to do. I’d say start if you need strikeouts, hold off if WHIP can’t be sacrificed.
Chris Bassitt (TOR) @ PIT (L) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 107 pitches.
Oh snap, it was one of those starts for Bassitt. He was jumped fortwo runs in the first, then he didn’t just settle down, but he got angry. The curveball was as good as it’s been all year (like the other ten strikeout game!) and he was able to freeze batters with sinkers for punchouts. And yet, the one think you were hoping for, the elusive dub, flittered away due to some dude named Oviedo. Baseball, you cruel game. I don’t expect Bassitt to have that curve regularly and the cutter was a sub 50% strike rate, y’all. Be careful against the Twins.
Colin Rea (CHC) vs MIL (W) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 96 pitches.
Yeeeesh. He got away with this one for a Win and now you’ve been rewarded with a start against the Giants that is a clear stream. Phew.
Bailey Ober (MIN) vs ATH (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 82 pitches.
This sure looks like he’s back, right? Pop quiz: What is Ober’s most important skill for sustainability? 91/92 mph four-seamers upstairs, laying the foundation. Correct. What if I told you that four-seamer was 89 mph with a 52% strike rate? Oh no. Yeaaaaah. The changeup is the other major facet of Ober’s past success and that was better than we’ve seen, returning 73% strikes and 6/26 whiffs, while the breakers were the real winners. We’re talking 11/31 whiffs between the slider and sweeper (and five curves!) and that’s not right. This feels like Blame it on the Athletics merged with a better feel than usual for the breakers and I see the Jays up next as a trap start. Count me out with that heater.
Noah Cameron (KCR) vs TEX (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 89 pitches.
Blegh. This was a day of the change and curve failing him for roughly 50% strikes between them. There’s your inefficiency and otherwise, he located well inside the zone to limit hits and still generate a strikeout per inning. We keep riding.
J.T. Ginn (ATH) @ MIN (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 81 pitches.
We’re not there yet. If you squint, you can see the changeup down-and-away to LHB, the slider doing the reverse to RHB, the sinker going along the edges, and cutter trying to help against LHB, but it’s like you’re using a chunky highlighter to color inside the lines. I can do that. WELL WE’RE NOT ALL AS TALENTED AS YOU.
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) @ CHC (L) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 78 pitches.
Blegh. You’re annoyed and I get that. At the same time, just one hit against the Cubs and if not for too much faith in a 47% strike curveball (two walks off the pitch!), he could have been more efficient and limited those runs. Three runs off ONE HIT. I’m not worried and I’m holding. Yes, he lost batters and that’s a sign of a young arm without the knowledge of how to make micro-adjustments inside at-bats to prevent them. He still gave you five strikeouts and a 1.00 WHIP, y’all. In the bad game. He should go five given the 80 pitches.
Luis Castillo (SEA) @ PHI (L) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 88 pitches.
Oh dear. It’s happening and not the happy version. The Phillies looked high this game and attacked those high heaters and the mistake sliders that Castillo failed to get down. Those fastballs are now fighting to stay at 94 mph (93.8 mph on the sinker…) and the changeup ain’t helping much. Maybe you still start him at home, but he gets the Padres next. Are you really okay with that?
Caleb Boushley (TEX) @ KCR (ND) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 68 pitches.
Who? Oh, a RHB with a 91 mph heater and literally nothing special. Why is he here? Jacob Latz came in for 3.1 IP after. Sure, but why not just let him start? I guess he’s not stretched out anymore (43 pitches) and I’m super curious if Latz fights for the rotation entering next year with the southpaw returning 18″ of vert at 95 mph merged with a changeup that misses bats + a slider that does its job against LHB. It’s a good version of the crafty southpaw we’ve talked about, he just needs more reps commanding the arsenal.
Brad Lord (WSN) vs NYM (W) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 92 pitches.
It felt apparent that his last start was a Birthday Party and yet, this was a Careful, Icarus with his final three runs all coming in the sixth. He still can’t get that sinker on the edges and I’m not into this.
Kodai Senga (NYM) @ WSN (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 84 pitches.
Blegh. He threw too many over the plate and the Nationals had good timing to score a few runs + Koufax didn’t help a whole lot. The splitter, cutter, and four-seamer are generally doing their thing, though, and I’m not too worried about this. He’s better than what he was a few weeks ago.
Andre Pallante (STL) @ MIA (L) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 93 pitches.
Yep, looks about right. You cannot do this to yourself.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) @ COL (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 66 pitches.
Ohtani wasn’t having a fun day in Coors after he failed to adjust to the thin air reducing the horizontal movement on his breakers. It led to far more slicing a chunk of the plate and casually slapped across a night of getting Singled Out. To make matters worse, it opened him up to a liner straight to the thigh that took him out of the game. He’s apparently okay, but it did mean he was limited to just sixty-sixty pitches. We’ve waited all year for five frames…I know. Just a little longer.
Landen Roupp (SFG) @ SDP (L) – 2.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 65 pitches.
This was a rough one for Roupp and even moreso when a comeback struck his leg and created a knee injury that forced him to be carted off the field. Don’t expect him back anytime soon, y’all. Sigh.
Framber Valdez (HOU) @ DET (L) – 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 96 pitches.
Framber allowed six baserunners before recording an out, getting bamboozled for six runs in the first and then settling down after. His curve was off, wasn’t it? A 55% strike rate with 1/20 whiffs, four hits, and a 20% CSW? Yeah, it was off, alright. Whatareyagonnado.
Game of the Day
Lucas Giolito vs. Luis Gil – Both are a bit chaotic with the potential to dominate.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
