Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Grant Holmes (ATL) @ CHW (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 94 pitches.
Some pitchers can lure you into a sense of trust. They get onto your roster after a good start or two, but betray you and bring your fantasy team down with them. We’ve got a term for pitchers like that, but it’s not used very often.
Grant Holmes is a Double Bubble, and you may be intrigued after his start on Thursday on the South Side of Chicago, where he turned in 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 94 pitches (W). Don’t be fooled! There’s one good reason to leave Holmes on the waiver wire in standard leagues – he breaks the Huascar Rule.
The REB has an elite slider, and it was no more evident than on Thursday when it induced a whopping 12 whiffs, keying all three of his punchouts in the outing. That’s dope. It’s also all he’s got.
Sure, four-seamers sometimes avoid enough damage to induce a couple whiffs or grab a couple Ks, curveballs can come alive to take over as the primary breaker, or even his cutter (which he completely axed in this one) might become an assistant to the regional manager against LHB, but rarely does he find support for his signature breaker consistently.
The slide piece has propelled him to six shutout frames in three of his last four starts, but you shouldn’t be tricked into a false sense of security when looking to Holmes as a potential streamer. Even at his best, he’s hyper-reliant on batted balls. He’s had eight quality starts this year, producing a 1.29 ERA, but has fanned just 17% of the batters he’s faced in those starts. He’s had just one start this year with more than six punchouts (a 10-K outing on May 23rd), and just one with more than five strikeouts.
With the Dodgers on deck, you can bet that Holmes will be in the Do Not Start tier, despite his recent run of scoreless outings. That slider has helped him turn in a handful of decent starts, but the ceiling isn’t worth chasing, especially when it comes with a scary WHIP floor (1.32 in 25 outings) caused by a reliance on batted balls finding gloves and a double-digit walk rate. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Grayson Rodriguez (LAA) @ HOU (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 99 pitches.
I went looking at GrayRod’s game card, praying for a step forward with his breakers to make this dominance something to get hyped about. Nope. Chuck Testa. This was all four-seamers and changeups as usual. I wish I could believe that his four-seamer could consistently dominate for 11 whiffs, 38% CSW, 76% strikes, but he didn’t do anything different here to suggest it’ll carry over into his next start. Like a trip to Chevron, he filled up the tank zone with gas (62% zone%) and got away with 12 foul balls and 11 called strikes to avoid the Wrathstros’ bats. There was no semblance of an approach, and changeups weren’t much better, rarely kissing the edges for just 17% CSW. I wish I could say that his breakers deserved to be thrown more often, but their command was awful. Sliders hung out in the heart of the plate to RHB, while curveballs never once found the zone. How many wishes do I have left? Uhhh, that’s two, so one more. I wish GrayRod didn’t pitch for the Angels because I don’t trust them to get the most out of his arsenal. I’m sorry, I can’t make that one come true until…2030. (View Game Card)
Jacob deGrom (TEX) vs WSN (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit, 1 BB, 10 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 94 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. deGrom hasn’t dominated like this since he pitched seven shutout innings with 10 Ks back on May 10th. It helped that he actually got four-seamers upstairs and that the Nationals were willing to chase a changeup that found the zone just 7% of the time. I know his 3.77 ERA on the year is less than ideal, but he’s not losing that AGA tag any time soon. Starts like these are what we keep him around for. (View Game Card)
Randy Dobnak (KCR) vs ATH (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 96 pitches.
I know it wasn’t good because he only lasted four frames, but this is still hilariously ridiculous. 10 baserunners and zero earned runs in Sacré Verde?! Come on, Koufax, you’re supposed to maintain your anonymity with synchronicities that can be written off as happenstance. You can’t just blatantly put all your weight on the scale like this. If not for inefficiency caused by a quartet of free passes, we’d have protests against your collusion with Randy. That’s eight of nine outings with two or fewer runs (and seven with one or fewer…and five with zero), producing a 1.58 ERA. With a 1.40 WHIP and sub-15% strikeout rate, there’s no way this continues. Koufax magic. Does that say @TOR, MIA, TOR across the next two weeks? You’ve gotta be kidding me. (View Game Card)
Shane Bieber (TOR) @ TBR (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 101 pitches.
Leave it to the domed confines of The Trop to boost an already solid heater into the stratosphere. Bieber’s four-seamer added 1.5″ of iVB to get it close to averaging 19″, allowing it to thrive in the zone to steal 13 called strikes. With secondaries going ring around the rosie with his trio of fastball variants, he befuddled Rays hitters on his way to the King Cole. Bieber’s been frustratingly volatile, making it difficult to determine if he’s the safe Holly he’s been in years past or if he’s a near-elite Cherry Bomb who toys with our emotions. He’s had four starts with 4+ runs, with the other seven returning two or fewer. With nearly 70% overall strikes here displaying his command of a deep arsenal that hasn’t lost a step, I’m inclined to trust him with KCR and @CLE up next. (View Game Card)
Gerrit Cole (NYY) @ BAL (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BB, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 93 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Cole hasn’t found the elite command that could thrust him into tier one on The List, but he’s definitely figured out how to thrive without it after some early struggles. Since the beginning of July, he’s pitched to a 2.45 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 31% strikeout rate. Is that good or what? What? You don’t think that’s good? What? Cole’s line since July. Who are we comparing him to? Who’s on first. (View Game Card)
Andrew Alvarez (WSN) @ TEX (L) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 75 pitches.
Alvarez finally fell out of the good graces of Koufax. After returning three or fewer hits in three straight starts to pitch into the sixth for the first three times all year, he allowed…four hits. The man loves him a curveball-wielding southpaw! Is he a man or a god? Isn’t he still alive? How is he doing this?! Koufax or Alvarez? Yes. It’s not the worst stream in the world with Rockie Road up next. If that goes well, you might as well keep it going with MIA afterward. Just don’t count on him for a quality start, as the Nats aren’t willing to give him a longer leash. (View Game Card)
Anthony Kay (CHW) vs ATL (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BB, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 94 pitches.
I’m liking what I’m seeing from Kay recently, and it’s enough for me to remove him from the “Toby who we can stream against bottom-half offenses” category. With an extra tick of velo across the board and excellent pitch separation, he had no problem handling Hotlanta. This was even a Careful, Icarus, as he was extended into the seventh, served up a double, and was removed, only to watch the inherited runner come around to score. He’s been throwing harder across the board since the beginning of June, recording a 3.23 ERA and 1.16 WHIP during that time. The 20% strikeout rate isn’t anything to get excited about, but with a 13% swinging strike rate, he’s a slight change in his pitch sequencing away from being a Holly. I’m riding this out where I’m in need of reliable, if unspectacular, production. (View Game Card)
Gavin Williams (CLE) vs SFG (W) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 11 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 96 pitches.
Aces gonna ace for a Gallows Pole. After combining for just 12 punchouts across his previous two starts, Williams locked back in with his sixth double-digit strikeout game across his past eight starts. I’m not sure why he leaned on curveballs as his primary pitch, as he didn’t command them well (54% strikes) and his usual four-seamer/sweeper approach was working just fine. Oh well, this just could’ve been even better. (View Game Card)
Kyle Bradish (BAL) vs NYY (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 100 pitches.
Blegh. I’m sort of done with Bradish. He hasn’t fanned more than five batters since June 22nd, a nine-start stretch during which his ratios have been fine (3.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP), but he’s struck out just 17% of the batters he’s faced. It’s been a failure to find the command of both of his breakers within starts, leaving his hittable heaters in no man’s land. Sliders were dope on Thursday, with 46% CSW and 75% strikes, but curveballs weren’t (8% CSW, 54% strikes), forcing sinkers and changeups (?) to step up against LHB. The slowball is a new development that he started throwing to LHB across his last two starts to combat the dodginess of his hook. It could be the savior if it resolved the strike problem that forces him to be so reliant on his breakers finding the zone, but it returned just 20% strikes. This start was sort of fine if you ignore the two unearned runs and shine a positive light on his Philly that was brought about by a pair of sixth-inning long balls, the last of which knocked him out of the game, but I’m not even convincing myself. He’s got the floor of a Cherry Bomb, but hasn’t showcased the upside that makes a volatile pitcher worth rostering. Maybe give him one more shot to get back on track hosting the Cardinals next before we drop him when he heads to Coors, but I’d be looking for a replacement. (View Game Card)
Michael McGreevy (STL) @ CIN (ND) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 90 pitches.
A command-focused, contact-oriented, changeup-slinging Toby returning sub-60% overall strikes isn’t the hyphen-laden description I want of pitchers on my fantasy roster. McGreevy’s command has not been pristine recently, with multiple walks in five of his last six starts, after doing so just seven times in his first 19 starts. For a guy looking to get outs on balls in play, having extra guys on base is less than ideal, especially when good fortune fades and balls start finding gaps. He’s a fine deep league stream hosting the Orioles next, but it’s time to let him go afterwards as he heads to Hollywood before taking on Coors. (View Game Card)
Landen Roupp (SFG) @ CLE (L) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 90 pitches.
I’ve been confident in Roupp’s resurgence because of his ability to maintain his elite pitch separation despite walking three or more in five straight starts. All four of his walks on Thursday came in full counts, suggesting he’s not commanding poorly, but rather hasn’t been able to find the right putaway pitch to end at-bats. A 20% putaway rate supports that claim. It seems as though he’s a mere tweak away from getting back on track. I’m a mere tweak away from being unable to get out of bed! (View Game Card)
Ian Seymour (TBR) vs TOR (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BB, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 90 pitches.
Those darn home runs! Chicks dig the long ball. When you’re hitting them, not when you’re giving them up! Seymour served up a trio of solo shots to ruin his ERA, but he was otherwise his classic SWATCH self. There was definitely room for better precision, though. He didn’t pull off the BSB, and his donut command is making me think about what I’m having for breakfast (I have cinnamon-filled croissants from Costco! #notanad). He certainly got away with a ton of hittable heaters, returning a bonkers 43% foul ball rate. Let’s be happy he salvaged this Dusty Donut with eight punchouts. Send him back out there when he heads to Detroit next, but keep an eye on his command. It’s integral to his success, and he’s the odd man out when Griffin Jax returns from the IL in the next couple of weeks. (View Game Card)
Brady Singer (CIN) vs STL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BB, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 103 pitches.
A third-inning, three-run homer by the cleanup hitter caused most of the damage, but Singer didn’t cover himself in glory with poor command against LHB. If he’s only going to throw his cutter five times, he’s going to need to have pristine pitch separation and pull off the BSB. Did he do that? He did not. He was lucky this wasn’t even worse, as Koufax allowed him to return 15 outs on 20 balls in play despite 60% hard contact. Sinkers also avoided a ton of damage with a whopping 19 foul balls, narrowly missing the barrels of those things the little red birds sit on in his opponents’ logo. Singer’s long leash makes him someone much better in quality start leagues, but he could be viable universally when he heads to Oracle Park next if he can figure out those darn LHB. (View Game Card)
Robert Gasser (MIL) vs SEA (ND) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 77 pitches.
Previewing this start, I said Gasser could find success as a streamer if he found his changeup feel to handle RHB and got four-seamers upstairs. He did neither of those things. Does he not listen to the First Pitch Podcast every day? Only the smartest fantasy managers do that. The slowballs earned strikes half the time, and four-seamers loitered in the middle of the zone. Cutters did a great job jamming RHB, but that’s about all he can hang his hat on. He tied his season-high with four walks, as the last one came on a rare mid-at-bat pitching change that ended in a free pass, credited to Gasser, of course. It’s hot enough that I don’t need to be sweating Gasser’s starts, but I won’t rule out production in Queens next. (View Game Card)
Gage Jump (ATH) @ KCR (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 86 pitches.
With a strikeout ceiling worth chasing and a scary home park, Jump is the ideal streaming target on the road against a weak offense. Too bad he’s proven to be a Cherry Bomb regardless of his destination. His success is dependent on his ability to get his impressive heater upstairs with minimal support from sliders to keep him from walking the yard. Fastballs were all over the place, inducing just one whiff, making obsolete the awesome 92% strike rate his slider produced. He’s a coin flip every time out, but I’m not risking it in Sacré Verde against the Twins. (View Game Card)
George Kirby (SEA) @ MIL (L) – 3.1 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 84 pitches.
This was gross. Kirby’s velo was down. His locations were lacking. Curveballs were his primary pitch despite producing his lowest strike rate among pitches thrown more than twice. Did Kirby swallow the ghost of Michael Lorenzen? I see the remnants of what he was trying to do here, and it wasn’t different from what he’s done this year (which hasn’t been very successful). That’s a 7.13 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and a sub-12% strikeout rate for Kirby across his last five starts, and there are people lining up outside his residency with pitchforks and torches ready to take him to the waiver wire. I don’t blame you. If there’s someone on the wire that can be a difference maker in your fantasy playoffs, go for it. In most leagues, I think you’re just gonna have to stick it out. (View Game Card)
Peter Lambert (HOU) vs LAA (L) – 3.2 IP, 9 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 79 pitches.
Oof! That ends Lambert’s streak of eight straight starts with two or fewer runs allowed. This wasn’t as bad as it looks, though. He got Singled Out with a .471 BABIP despite 59% weak contact. Some poor fielding in the second made things worse, and the fourth was just a complete disaster. He left with the bases loaded and watched the carousel go round and round to score all three inherited runners. I’d write this off as a One Night Bland and give the established Holly a mulligan, even @NYY next Wednesday. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Jacob Misiorowski vs. Chris Sale – It doesn’t get more dope than this!
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
