Spring Training has arrived and as I’ve been writing daily notes for myself to recap all spring training starting pitchers for the Plus Pitch Podcast, I realized I should publish them on the site for quick access.
I’ll be livestreaming every morning 10am-12pm ET at playback.tv/pitcherlist as I watch all of the starts with y’all and answer all your fantasy baseball questions.
Major SP News To Know
Great news for those rostering Jared Jones – He will not require surgery and does not have any tears in his elbow. He wil resume throwing in six weeks, making him on track for a return in June. PHEW.
DJ Herz has a UCL sprain and will likely miss signifcant time. It explains his lower velocity and we should not anticipate a return to the majors in the near future.
Patrick Corbin is set to make his first start with the Rangers on April 11th – shockingly early given Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter’s additions to the rotation. My guess is Rocker is displaced, allowing him get just two starts – one in Cincy and one in George Steinbrenner field against the Rays.
The Cubs have made Ben Brown their fifth starter. I’m not interested as he still doesn’t earn whiffs with his heater, nor has a third pitch he can trust. It’s too risky.
HUGE SITE NEWS
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Head to playback.tv/pitcherlist, follow the channel, and I’ll see you on Opening Day!
Expected Rotations By Team
Statcast Games – TV
MIN vs. COL
TEX vs. KC
BOS vs. MTY
SF vs. DET
LAA vs. LAD
Chris Paddack (MIN) – 3.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 5 K. I love that he’s able to consistently sit upstairs. I don’t love that it’s just four-seamer/change. But he threw 20 breakers! Yep, 12 slider and 8 curves for…5/20 strikes. 25% rate. Oh no. Oh no indeed. But hey, he gets the White Sox first and that’s cool with me. Let’s see how it goes.
Germán Márquez (COL) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 1 K. Look, I’m just happy you’re pitching, you know? 1/19 whiffs on curves + sliders is not the man we love from 2018, but whatever. Go have fun.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 2 K. He’s at 96 mph (not 97) and commanding like a stud, including 4/12 whiffs to LHB with his changeup down-and-away. I think we’ll see higher velocity once deGrom gets the full green light in season, though even if he’s only at 96 mph, he’s still a phenomenal pitcher. But the results! I know. Don’t worry. His fastball/slider to RHB is just so well spotted.
Kumar Rocker (TEX) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 8 K. He’s shelved the slider for the curve and he throws more strikes with the bigger breaker, though I think he needs both in order to thrive. Sinkers in to RHB is cool, four-seamers over the plate to LHB is still an issue. I’m not sold yet, but there’s obvious intrigue at 98+ mph.
Kris Bubic (KC) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 8 K. He sat 92.6 mph on the four-seamer (that works!), though the changeup wasn’t as great as we’ve seen. The slider is looking good enough to make good on his promise with room to grow in command as he continues to get reps. I don’t mind the start in Milwaukee on Monday and I’d circle Bubic as the first arm to pick up to replace a disappointing game across the opening weekend.
Jordan Hicks (SF) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 3 K. I was hoping to see Hicks at 97 mph in his final tune up, after showcasing the increased velocity (not 94 mph) in his previous outing. I didn’t get 97 mph. I GOT 98 MPH. Yep, sign me up for Hicks. Not as much as say Fitts or Meyer, but Hicks at 97+ mph is going to get outs and limit hits with plenty of runway to go six frames with a strong defense behind him. The only concern is walks and strikeouts, which depend solely on the strike rates of his sweepers and splitters. We can only hope. For what it’s worth, both pitches held a 67%+ strike rate in this one. WE’LL TAKE THAT ALL DAY.
Jackson Jobe (DET) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 5 K. His command is fantastic against LHB, but RHB aren’t seeing the curve enough, while the four-seamer doesn’t get upstairs and the cutter is over the plate. I’ll come ya’ll, keep leaning into Jobe.
Casey Mize (DET) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K. Whoa ho HO! Mize leaned into the slider as he continued to do everything he can to figure it out for the season ahead. And guess what? 5/17 whiffs with solid locations! He also worked on sinkers inside to RHB and barely touched his two best pitches – four-seamers and splitters. Well ain’t that a bundle of fun? I’m all for grabbing Mize for his first two starts (@SEA, vs. CHW) and seeing how it plays out.
Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 3 K. He’s still sitting 95 mph and touching over 97 with sinkers galore, though there were more sliders in the mix here and that’s fine with me. The command is still great and I wonder if having Kyle Hendricks in the clubhouse will help Kochanowicz develop further. One sinker command artist to another. He’s a Toby and could be a decent stream against the Cardinals. Just don’t expect strikeouts, of course. Ah, the Jack of One Trade.
Dustin May (LAD) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 6 K. YOOOOOO, May is embracing high four-seamers! He featured them over sinkers to LHB and saved a few for RHB, and I love it. The curve was a strike machine (if not a little susceptible to damage over the plate) and the sinker was the sinker, and this is awesome. The next step is the cutter becoming a major factor and nailing the gloveside corner with the curve and voila! You have a stud in Los Angeles. Oh, and here’s five innings in just 68 pitches for all who have been worried. He’ll likely go 75 in his first one and that could be another five frames easily in the books. Sign. Me. UP.
Statcast Games – No TV
MIA vs. NYY
AZ vs. CLE
HOU vs. SUG
Max Meyer (MIA) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 3 K. The slider didn’t get away from RHB and backed up on him to go inside corner (whoops), but the changeup was spotted well and he’s at 90/91 mph on said slider (not 88 mph). That’s lovely. I’m very much in and looking forward to his start on Sunday.
Will Warren (NYY) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 6 K. I’m not confident in Warren’s ability to get LHB out, but I do dig his inside sinkers and away sweepers to RHB. I’m out in 12-teamers until he showcases something legit against LHB (the changeup went 1/10 whiffs here). The four-seamer isn’t good enough. Schmidt had the same problem until…oh not that again…HE ADDED THE CUTTER. Just saying.
Ryan Yarbrough (NYY) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 0 K. He’s here and tossed 11 pitches. I’ve floated the idea out there that The Fratty Pirate will be a sneaky vulture Win guy the first week after Stroman, Warren, and/or Carrasco, but 11 pitches isn’t as stretched out as we’d hope. It may still be enough, though.
Luis Ortiz (CLE) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 1 K. A little more direction in his approach – four-seamers generally up, cutters comfortably over the plate, sliders down – and that can work. It just comes with chaos. I don’t like chaos, especially for a guy with a questionable strikeout rate.
Triston McKenzie (CLE) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 1 K. The good news – he did increase his velocity in the pen, up to 95 mph on the heater across 19 thrown at 120.3 plvStuff+. So at least he has that going for him.
Joey Cantillo (CLE) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 0 K. All I care about is velocity (92 mph, normal) and extension (7.2 feet, normal). In other words, he’s his normal self and that’s cool. Looking forward to Cantillo when he makes his return to the rotation later this year. Let’s hope the slider destroys LHB, the changeup destroys RHB, and the fastball can stay elevated.
Hayden Wesneski (HOU) – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K. I hate that I see him as a worses Brandon Pfaadt, but he has a good sweeper and nothing else. This was against their minor league club and it’s not the greatest, y’all.
No Statcast – TV
CHC vs. ATL
Ben Brown (CHC) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 4 K. He’s officially the fifth starter and I’m not interested. Sorry! He doesn’t have a third pitch and the four-seamer still doesn’t get whiffs = it’s too hittable. Sure, the strikeouts will be there as the curve is filthy, but that’s it y’all! He needs something else.
No Statcast – No TV
CIN vs. DAY
Chase Petty (CIN) – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 2 K. I think Petty is pretty rad and this start doesn’t showcase that at all. As long as he’s killing it in Triple-A, I imagine the Reds will promote him to the bigs before the All-Star break. Yes, I’m picking him up when that happens.
What To Watch Today On TV
NOTHING. It’s the day off before baseball starts tomorrow. Join me on opening day STREAMING BASEBALL at playback.tv/pitcherlist. See you there!