Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Saturday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Shane Bieber (TOR) @ SEA (L) – 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 89 pitches.
This is going to be short. I was hopeful that Shane Bieber would be a strong play this year after looking like his prime self in August/September of 2025. Then he had arm fatigue, and we held on, hoping he’d be okay by the start of the year or he’d be worthwhile once he returned in-season. Three starts in, including Saturday’s great matchup @TEA of 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 89 pitches (L), and Bieber has looked nothing like what we wanted him to be.
Does it mean Bieber can’t be a productive fantasy arm? Of course not. However, what we’ve seen thus far has been Bieber in name only. Bieber’s greatest strengths are his breaking balls and consider me disturbed to see 62 four-seamers + changeups combined. That’s nearly 70% usage, y’all. But they were better than the breakers, right? No! His curve, cutter, and slider all returned more strikes and whiffs, and I don’t fully understand. Sure, the curveball, slider, and cutter are featuring worse movement than last season, but they are still better offerings than the 91/92 mph four-seamer and the can-be-good-but-this-is-just-a-phase changeup. It’s weird, and a clear indication that he’s not himself. He’s trying to find answers, while us fantasy managers want results. That’s not a good combo.
This is all to say, let him go. This is a work in progress and I’d be floored if he looked stellar in his next outing in San Diego. I’ll be rooting for him, obviously, but like Strider last season (on a worse level), it’s important to distance yourself from your old impressions of Bieber. He’s not that guy. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:
Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs TOR (W) – 7.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 91 pitches.
Aces gonna ace with an extra 1-2 ticks on everything, once again pounding the zone with four-seamers and batters couldn’t do anything with them. I love how Logan agreed to piggyback, but both times it was his turn, it never happened. Don’t be surprised when these things don’t last in the future! (View Game Card)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs SDP (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 100 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Six whiffs on high four-seamers alone make me a very happy man. I wish he wasn’t destined to throw fewer frames than his healthy peers, but I have to give him plenty of credit for tossing 104.2 IP thus far – that’s tied for 9th most in the majors. Maybe I’m overrating the IP ceiling…Probably not. (View Game Card)
Jack Flaherty (DET) @ TEX (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 88 pitches.
Huh. This didn’t have the same dominance we saw last week (his slider was terrible), but the curve and fastball took down the Rangers relatively easily. It gets a bit trickier now against the Phillies and Cubs, and I’m still not buying in, especially with one wall of his home already crumbling. (View Game Card)
Kyle Leahy (STL) @ CHC (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 77 pitches.
Hot dang, Look at you! That’s a Gold Star for Leahy in summer Wrigley, and three starts of just 1 ER allowed. I wonder if he can go Dancing With The Disco on his great 89 mph slider, which he made his most used pitch, though a low 22% usage (but usually 16%). I’m glad it worked here, but note the low pitch count and CSW – the Cubs were aggressive and Koufax was kind. While I can see a world where Leahy is demanding success regularly, I don’t see that version of him in these successful outings. Feel free to chase it against the Brewers, though. It’s not for me. (View Game Card)
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) @ ATH (W) – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 100 pitches.
Duuuuude, in “Sacré Verde?!” This was one of the better starts I’ve seen of Sandy, where he was able to locate the sinker super well to LHB + elevate the four-seamer to get more whiffs than most starts this year. He’s also come into form with his cutter at 19% usage and 79% strikes (dope!), though he wasn’t even at his peak with the changeup failing for just 31% strikes and 1/13 whiffs. Wild, right? Now he’ll get the Guardians and it sure feels like a CGSHO is coming. Talk about perfect timing for the Marlins to trade him away at the deadline… (View Game Card)
Zack Littell (WSN) vs PIT (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 87 pitches.
Whoa, that’s the first game of the year with more than 10 whiffs, oddly against one of the best teams against RHP. For whatever reason, the sinker/slider combo worked well, as Littell upped the former’s usage massively and favored it over the splitter as the slider’s partner in crime. With the Yankees and Sacré Verde next, I’d be careful giving into that small instinct y’all have that Littell could be that quiet arm of production for a month. (View Game Card)
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) @ KCR (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 95 pitches.
A Golden Goal for Luzardo is a lovely thing. That marks 13 great starts and 5 poor starts for Luzardo. There really is nothing in between – zero games of 3 or 4 ER – and if his sweeper feel is this good, it’ll only be great moving forward. (View Game Card)
Sean Burke (CHW) @ CLE (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 11 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 95 pitches.
That’s an eight-game stretch of a 2.96 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 32% strikeout rate for Burker, here holding a rare co-share of the King Cole (exact same rate!) due to a large boost in cutter usage (6% –> 16%!) at 53% CSW, and consistent strikes across the board. It’s easier to do that against the Guardians, sure, but he doesn’t have a tough opponent in his near future. And would you look at that – Burke is sitting 96+ mph on his heater, not the sub-95 mph we’ve constantly seen this year. The dude is FEELING IT. Let it ride, let it ride. (View Game Card)
Sonny Gray (BOS) @ LAA (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 70 pitches.
It sure is Sonny this summer. His sweeper feel has been frequently on point across the last month and this was no different. Gotta keep starting him. (View Game Card)
Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) @ WSN (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 94 pitches.
Lovely bounce back from The Golden Brax, not quite AGA territory but obviously start-em-if-you’ve-got-em. (View Game Card)
Parker Messick (CLE) vs CHW (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 17% CSW, 100 pitches.
Wow, he got lucky. I’ve been hyped about Messick for two reasons: Increased velo & FB/CH command. He had neither here. Fastball is back to 94+ mph (not 95 -98), and his changeup feel was bad. 45% strikes with just 1/20 whiffs is not the Messick we know and love. Let’s slink on out of this one and feel lucky we escaped after starting him. (View Game Card)
Griffin Canning (SDP) @ LAD (L) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 73 pitches.
He had an opener and it helped, but you’ve been avoiding Canning for ages and why stop now? Because it was the Dodgers. Naaaah. Well I’m convinced. (View Game Card)
Cal Quantrill (TEX) vs DET (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 66 pitches.
HE IS THE UNQUANTRILLFIABLE. Koufax was a kind soul and the Tigers were more aggressive in the zone than they should have been. Please don’t buy into this. But he changed his approach to focus on four-seamer/splitter! Don’t. Care. Don’t do this. (View Game Card)
Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs MIL (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 92 pitches.
This version of Kelly is much better. Yes, he got Singled Out a bit, but he also sat 1-2 ticks up and had the proper pitch separation we see when he’s cooking. Well, at least to LHB. Gotta fix those sinkers and cutters well over the plate. I think you’re okay to start him against the Padres. (View Game Card)
Shota Imanaga (CHC) vs STL (L) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 86 pitches.
Our hopes of a HR-free game were dashed in one pitch – Weatherholt hit a 90.8 mph dead-center heater over the wall – and otherwise, Imanaga was generally solid, nearly going five if not for Weatherholt (again) hitting a double to end his day. Feel free to consider Shota on the bench in Cincy next time out if your worried about the HRs. I think I’m still starting him – eight punchouts and 16 whiffs with the fastball just under 92 mph is still solid Imanaga. (View Game Card)
Robbie Ray (SFG) @ COL (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 88 pitches.
A dub and a PQS for Ray with just nine four-seamers on the night is stunning. Fun fact, his four-seamer held a 78% strike rate while his main trio of sinkers, changeups, and sliders each sat below 60%. It may be time to make the swap… (View Game Card)
Chris Sale (ATL) vs NYM (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 98 pitches.
Aces gonna start the sixth with a single, HR, single, HBP, messing up a decent line for a near Wonka. Whatareyagonnado. (View Game Card)
Sam Aldegheri (LAA) vs BOS (L) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 88 pitches.
Two-Kay Sam! Aren’t you supposed to be on a box of Fruit Loops somewhere? OH SHOOT, I’M LATE! (View Game Card)
Brandon Woodruff (MIL) @ ARI (L) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 61 pitches.
Woodruff is so good…until it’s not. He was pulled after his velocity fell to the mid-80s and he’s back on the IL with the same injury he had early in the year. The dude puts it all out there, you know? He’s tossing as much as he can at a high level and I can’t imagine what his emotions are like after fighting so hard to get on the field and pitch consistently once again. I wonder if we see him again all year – you have to imagine the goal is to make him healthy for a potential playoff run at this point. (View Game Card)
Michael Wacha (KCR) vs PHI (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 105 pitches.
Soooo close. Three HRs did all the damage, including a solo shot to kick off the sixth and ruin all hope for a PQS. It’s the same Wacha, for the most part, which makes his @NYM, SDP, SFG schedule ahead good enough for 12-teamers. (View Game Card)
Brandon Young (BAL) @ CIN (W) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 102 pitches.
I’m not saying this is what Young will always be, but this fits more than the 23 whiffs Golden Goal fella of last start. He also lost a fair amount of vert on his foundational four-seamer, and I’m not interested. It’s a Young man’s game and I’ve been writing this article for 13 MLB seasons. Wow, you’re old?! I wish I didn’t type that. I need a moment. (View Game Card)
Zebby Matthews (MIN) @ NYY (ND) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 79 pitches.
HRs got to him once again. I’m not seeing it, y’all. What, Obsession? Yeah, I don’t like horror films. Alright, but what about Zebby’s upside? Oh, I’m not seeing that either. Probably scarier, too. (View Game Card)
Aaron Civale (ATH) vs MIA (L) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 84 pitches.
I’d rather drink Sid Meier’s sponsored beverage than start Aaron. What are you possibly on about? My apologies. I prefer CIV Ale to Civale. NIIIIIIICK. (View Game Card)
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) @ HOU (ND) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 77 pitches.
Aces gonna look mortal for the first time since getting the tag. Two HRs hurt, but the lack of strikeouts humbles me. Riiiight, strikeouts weren’t always a given with Ras. Nothing to fear, here. Just a One Night Bland. (View Game Card)
Brendan Beck (NYY) vs MIN (L) – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 87 pitches.
I had zero expectations for Beck as a 92 mph four-seamer + 84 mph gyro slider arm and the results look fitting, but seventeen whiffs?! He does a good job of getting the four-seamer up and slider down at times, and I think this was a case of Twins hitters chasing heaters early in counts and willing to miss on the slide piece. Don’t see it as a sign of strikeouts to come as the whiffs will come down and the strikeouts will stay near the same. He’s a stop-gap with Rodón’s injury and I wonder how the Yankees will finagle this rotation moving forward. Likely Elmer Rodríguez against the Rays this week (no thanks) and it could be Fried/Rodón returning around the corner or, more likely, an SP acquired at the deadline. Either way, The Pro Beck is a Long Cause. He’s not Where It’s At. (View Game Card)
Sean Sullivan (COL) vs SFG (L) – 5.2 IP, 6 ER, 12 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 105 pitches.
I don’t really know why you’d consider Sully. He’s not your companion for some hidden treasure. (View Game Card)
Sean Manaea (NYM) @ ATL (L) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 108 pitches.
Hey y’all. I know we have a soft spot for Manaea, and he does get the Royals next, but he’s at 91 mph (at least not 90?) and there are better upside plays for six frames without this floor.
Hunter Brown (HOU) vs TBR (ND) – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 82 pitches.
What is up with Brown’s four-seamer? This is the second straight start where it’s let him down, here with a horrific 41% strike rate and 1/34 whiffs. Yeeeesh. I hope he’s alright – he’s at 95.8 mph, which isn’t his best, but it’s not a red flag – and I think we have to brute force it through @TEX next. (View Game Card)
Hunter Greene (CIN) vs BAL (L) – 3.1 IP, 8 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 89 pitches.
He’s back! And we really need to listen to the laws of Still ILL, eh? I’ve been shouting about Greene’s need to throw sliders for strikes, and yet, he killed it in that regard – nearly 70% strikes with a stupid good 39% SwStr rate. The problem was the traditionally reliable four-seamer that had its old velocity of 99 mph, but went just 1/47 whiffs as it found the heart of the plate or wildly missed the zone, ending the day with a terrible 51% strike rate. That may look worrisome, but to me, this is great. It’s rare for Greene to feature this poor fastball feel, and I imagine the adrenaline of the moment or possibly the 90-degree heat messed him up. I’m letting him fly against the Cubs, especially with a high 89 pitch count already in the bank. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Bubba Chandler vs. Cade Cavalli – This could be dope, this could be terrible. Still fun.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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