Here are today’s daily SP Streamer rankings.
Every day of the 2023 baseball season, I’ll be looking at today and tomorrow’s slate of scheduled starting pitchers and ranking their matchups for your fantasy baseball streams.
There’s a lot that goes into this and you can hang out with me on Playback.tv/pitcherlist to talk about the specific ranks as I make them every weekday morning from 10am – 12pm ET. If you have questions about these ranks, please ask during the morning Playback AMA. Those are my office hours as I generally don’t answer comments on the site.
There are four tiers to these rankings with 12-teamers in mind:
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man. This includes “if I have them rostered, I’m starting them” pitchers.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good-not-elite pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm. These pitchers have a 50% or greater chance of performing well in my view.
Questionable Start – Think of this tier as “I don’t want to start these pitchers in a vacuum, but you could do worse.” Streamers found in this tier are not pitchers I’m targeting and are only if you are in dire need of one. To play it safe with streaming, just start the Probably Start streamers.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it. Seriously, these pitchers have a very slim chance of success or sometimes none at all.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results throughout the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, there are my streaming picks of the day, and please keep in mind that I am forced to pick a streamer every day. Those highlighted in Green are that day’s streaming pick in the second tier and I’d roll with them everywhere. Those in Yellow are in the third tier and should be okay if you’re searching for something on a given day, but I don’t recommend streaming unless you’re in need. Finally, those are Red are those I really don’t want to start (they are labeled as “Do Not Start”, after all) but have no other choice. Don’t stream these guys until you are truly desperate. A streaming pick is defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
(Opener) – Outlines that a pitcher is being opened for that day & the pitcher listed will follow the opener.
As I do my rankings, I thought it would be helpful to showcase a table of how we’re ranking offenses (in Alphabetical order):
I’m sure it’ll change through the year + there are differences to be made about teams vs. LHP or RHP, but it works as a general table that y’all should keep in mind.
Alright, let’s get to it.
This year, with our new daily fantasy baseball projections powered by PLV, I’ll be competing against PL Bot to pick the best streaming option each day.
To get access to PL Bot’s picks each day, sign up for PL Pro here.
The streaming record is determined by “Was this a productive game for 12-teamers if I started them?” Roughly a PQS with a Win and a strikeout per inning with a sub 1.20 WHIP, with a minimum of 5 IP. Close calls are decided by Playback chat.
Nick’s 2023 Streamer Record: 94-71
My pick yesterday: Zack Littell @ BAL
PL Bot’s 2023 Streamer Record: 83-82
PL Bot’s Pick yesterday: Gavin Stone @ SEA
Want PL Bot’s pick today? Sign Up for PL Pro here.
With the new formatting for the notes, I’ve made the streaming pick of the day Underlined and Italicized.
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Auto-Starts
Freddy Peralta @ STL – Aces gonna ace.
Justin Verlander vs. BAL – It wasn’t great last time and we’re not going to overract to it.
Bryan Woo @ OAK – Woo was dominant in his last one and it’s the Athletics.
Joe Ryan @ CIN – I dig Ryan’s heaters, the splitter and slider need a little work and this is in Cincy. Still, Ryan is worth it.
Probably Starts
Zack Wheeler @ ATL – He was fantastic across four frames until a terrible fifth against Atlanta last time out. He’s an ace and you still roll the dice.
Lance Lynn vs. DET – Lynn is weird, but the Win chance is too dang good.
Michael Wacha vs. COL – Wacha struggled against the Dodgers, fortunately this is Rockie Road.
Jordan Montgomery vs. BOS – He survived with 16 sinkers in play last time out. It’s weird yet hosting the Red Sox should be fine.
Cal Quantrill @ KCR – He’s a Toby against a poor offense.
Mike Clevinger @ WSN – He’s come through against poor lineups more times than not.
Edward Cabrera vs. NYM – Cabrera didn’t have the same command last time out. I’m going to go with this with more pitches in the tank and imagine he’ll be better.
Questionable Starts
José Butto @ MIA – Butto’s last start was great, though I’m a little cautious that this is a trap play. I hope he can pull off the BSB again with more efficiency, but it’s not something I’m chasing in 12-teamers.
John Means @ HOU – Means didn’t have the skills last time out that make me confident here. However, it was his first start back from TJS, so there’s a chance he was shaking off some rust…but this is the Astros.
Kutter Crawford @ TEX – Crawford did well against the Yankees, but the Rangers are tougher.
UPDATE: Eduardo Rodriguez @ LAD – It’s the Dodgers, though Erod is pitching well and could be crafty enough to earn outs on each of his offerings despite the matchup.
JP Sears vs. SEA – He’s a Cherry Bomb y’all.
Brady Singer vs. CLE – He’s a Cherry Bomb who hasn’t come through for two starts since missing time with arm fatigue. Yikes.
Connor Phillips vs. MIN – We saw a great MLB debut, then horrid command the following start. It’s a Cherry Bomb play for those desperate.
Do Not Starts
Joan Adon vs. CHW – I don’t like his stuff, at least he has a long enough leash.
Kyle Wright vs. PHI – The curveball wasn’t what we want it to be and this is the Phillies. He’s too risky.
Ty Blach @ SDP – Blach.
Alex Faedo @ LAD – It’s the Dodgers + Faedo is awfully inconsistent + how many pitches will he actually go?
Adam Wainwright vs. MIL – Wainwright is one Win away from #200. I sure hope he gets it.
Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Auto-Starts
Luis Castillo @ OAK – Aces gonna ace.
Blake Snell vs. COL – Aces gonna ace. The Cy young is his to lose now.
Zac Gallen vs. SFG – Aces gonna ace.
Spencer Strider vs. PHI – Aces gonna ace, but he gets the only non-poor offenses…which happens to be elite.
Yusei Kikuchi @ NYY – Kikuchi wasn’t as stellar last time out, but it was the Rangers and his skills were still there. Enjoy his lovely schedule now.
Probably Starts
Ryan Pepiot vs. DET – I love this matchup and dig his changeup + slider as he faces a poor offense. Great Win chance here.
Kenta Maeda @ CIN – Maeda’s slider and splitter have improved as of late + the Reds aren’t as scary in Cincy as they once were.
Logan Allen @ KCR – He’s a Toby against a middling offense…though they have been crushing LHP as of late (Top tier of Hitter Performance in the last 14 days). I’m not going to overreact to that.
Taj Bradley vs. LAA – I know, Bradley is a Cherry Bomb and opponent doesn’t matter a whole lot as it’s all about if he’s going to throw enough strikes or not. However, the ceiling is much higher than usual with the Angels’ propensity to strikeout + the Rays granting a solid Win chance.
Questionable Starts
Hunter Brown vs. BAL – He’s a Cherry Bomb and it’s a tough call against the Orioles, even after taking care of business against the Orioles.
Clarke Schmidt vs. TOR – It’s been a fun ride with Schmidt over the last two months, but he struggled in Fenway and the Jays are not a team to mess with.
Braxton Garrett vs. NYM – He looked better last time out and it’s the Mets. I’m not in love with Garrett like we were in June, but there’s a solid chance at six frames here.
Javier Assad vs. PIT – His cutter has been gone for two starts now and that makes me worried. Assad did get Coors last time, but if the cutter was back in form, I wouldn’t care about the box score and feel more confident here.
Alex Cobb @ ARI – Will his splitter show up? Is his hip injury limiting him a ton? It gets ultra dicey in this third tier after Assad and Cobb would normally be at the very bottom. We just have so many ehhhhhhh options for Tuesday.
Adrian Houser @ STL – There’s always a chance with Houser. He just pumps heaters in there after all and lets the BABIP gods have their way.
Tanner Houck @ TEX – Houck has a great slider and I worry there isn’t enough in the rest of his arsenal. Plus the Rangers, of course.
Drew Rom vs. MIL – He dominated with his four-seamer despite its 91 mph velocity last time out and it’s…weird. But hey, maybe it works again?
Kyle Gibson @ HOU – Ah yes, the weirdest Cherry Bomb of them all, who somehow does better against strong offenses.
Cristopher Sánchez @ ATL – It’s Atlanta and yet Sánchez just dominated them with his changeup. Highly unlikely it repeats, but at least we recognize the chance.
Nathan Eovaldi vs. BOS – I’m worried it’ll be a limited pitch count again + his velocity is terrible. This is not the guy we want.
Patrick Sandoval @ TBR – His slider and change are still not both there on a given night. It’s MADDENING. I hope he can do it.
Bailey Falter @ CHC – He may have an opener and there is a chance he separates out his heaters and secondaries well.
Joey Lucchesi @ MIA – I don’t believe in the Churve and his 17 (!) balls in play off sinkers last time out that mostly found gloves. In addition, the Marlins just swept Atlanta and look menacing at the moment.
Do Not Starts
Paul Blackburn vs. SEA – There’s a chance this works and I was tempted to thrust him into the third tier, but the ceiling doesn’t match the risk.
Alec Marsh vs. CLE – This is a desperate strikeout play if you really need it with his new sweeper. Not for me, though, especially with a low pitch count likely coming as well.
José Ureña @ WSN – Remember kids, If you start José, Ureña boatload of trouble.
Ben Lively vs. MIN – One day he’ll go super slider heavy again.
Connor Seabold @ SDP – Absolutely not.
Jackson Rutledge vs. CHW – He was rough in his MLB debut and I expect no different here.
Alex Faedo @ LAD – It’s the Dodgers + Faedo is awfully inconsistent + how many pitches will he actually go?
Featured Image by Kurt Wasemiller (@KUWasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)
why ?
Isn’t starting Lynn at this point just a leap of faith that the Dodgers are a smart organization that can somehow fix him?
Over his past five starts (29 innings) his k% is 6.9%, his k-bb is 0%, his swinging strike rate is 8.2%, his SIERA is 6.50, his xFIP is 6.48.
Some of his competition during that stretch has been good (ATL, BOS, SD), but there are also a few good matchups mixed in (MIL, MIA). His terrible performance cannot be explained away based on good competition. Good competition doesn’t explain a 6.9% k rate and 2.79 k/9.
Detroit’s not very good, but they’ve been at least mediocre of late. There’s a good chance Lynn gets a win tonight, his ratios (especially in leagues with k/9 as a category) could do plenty of damage, especially if he goes 6 or 7 innings.
Maybe he will be good tonight, but if he is, it will fly in the face of every objective measure of recent performance.
I think you are underselling Braxton Garrett. He’s back to his awesome ways, but it seems you haven’t noticed. He shut out the Brewers on the road last start. In the one prior, he pitched well vs. the Dodgers. He hasn’t had poor outing since Aug 2 and even that wasn’t bad given it was at Phil.