Back in March, I published my first (hopefully annual) Major League Baseball Defensive Primer. Therein, I looked at some different components ahead of the 2024 MLB season on that side of the ball. Some teams we can expect to succeed, position changes for individual players, etc. As the league prepares to hit the All-Star Break, it seems like an appropriate time to jump back into the defensive game.
The purpose of revisiting isn’t to offer a rehashing of what I may have been right or wrong about. Rather, the goal here is to see where we stand in relation to some of those ideas, but also look at some other components that have stood out this year. In an effort to grasp some semblance of brevity, I’m also skipping my typical cinema-related diatribe from the jump.
We will, however, still start with a revisiting of said primer. Just to add a little bit of extra context to our midseason discussion. Beyond that, we’ll touch on some other standout defensive elements, both favorable and…less so. Everybody has their midseason bit. This one’s mine.
Revisiting the Primer
Some notes from our preseason discussion:
- The imperfection within our ability to evaluate catchers.
- The Milwaukee Brewers could be the league’s best defensive squad. Kansas City might be in for a defensive decline given the outfield corners. San Diego is in a transitional period that could be either positive or negative.
- Bryce Harper’s transition to first base as a focal point.
- The importance of defense in the grand scheme of contention.
There are obviously some other bits discussed, but those were the main points. And we’re not going to cover each within this section. Some merit a longer discussion.
We won’t belabor the point about catching too much. Except to say that by the metrics we have, it looks like Cal Raleigh is the best defensive catcher in MLB. He leads in Catcher Defensive Adjustment (10.4) and is top five in Called Strikes Above Average (0.013). He’s also thrown out more would-be base stealers than anyone else, with 23.
As far as the former goes, Patrick Bailey has been super impressive in his first full season. He’s top five in CDA & CSAA. With respect to the latter, Will Smith has been most effective at controlling the run game. He’s thrown out the highest percentage of runners, at roughly 40 percent. It also seems worth noting that Willson Contreras has shown about as much improvement as anyone behind the dish. His CDA has jumped from -7.4 last year to -1.5 in ’24, along with gains in framing and throwing. Small sample given his injury, but improvements nevertheless.
We’ll talk more about team defense momentarily. By Fielding Run Value (a metric with which I have grown more comfortable after prompting from MLB.com wiz Mike Petriello), the New York Yankees have been the best team in baseball.
A quick aside. This FRV thing. Upon publishing my preseason primer, Petriello asked why I used Outs Above Average (OAA) and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) rather than the newer, more comprehensive FRV. My answer (after being petrified of a question from someone far above my pay grade) was that I was more comfortable with the old stuff. A coward’s way out. But I’ve grown more accustomed to it since. OAA is a factor within FRV and it allows the latter to strike a balance between range and arm. FRV also offers more fluidity in evaluating multiple positions. It’s the whole package and I’m into it. That’s what we’ll use moving forward.
Back on topic. Toronto a close second. It hasn’t been the Brewers, but they’re in the mix. Kansas City hasn’t experienced the drop I thought, while the Padres’ defensive fluidity hasn’t gone as smoothly as projected. Again, we’ll discuss more in a moment.
As far as Harper goes, he’s been elite. His FRV stands at six, the second-best mark in MLB. His four DRS also sit near the top, with the third-most. He’s mid-tier in the scoops game, but that likely speaks more to the defensive stability of the Philadelphia infield. In virtually every metric, all of their infields are average, at worst.
That’s the recap. Let’s move into more current discussion.
Team D: For Better & Worse
The subject of team defense isn’t easy to simplify. Catchers are their own animal. Infield defense and outfield defense is entirely different, especially as you get into discussions of range and arm. So, naturally, we’re going to oversimplify in discussing some of the team trends thus far.
Like I said, the Milwaukee Brewers haven’t been the league’s best defensive team. They currently rank sixth in team FRV, though. Blake Perkins (FRV of 7) has been their best defensive outfielder filling in for some outfield injuries. Jackson Chourio (also 7) has been very good in right. Willy Adames (6), Joey Ortiz (4), and Brice Turang (2) have all been above average on the infield dirt. Their defensive shortcomings have come from Christian Yelich (-2) and Rhys Hoskins, Sal Frelick, and William Contreras (all -3). The good ones have been good enough to compensate and support a pitching staff that has been just okay.
Staying with teams we discussed preseason, Kansas City has remained near the top of the leaderboard. Somewhat obviously, though, they’re carried by the infield. Bobby Witt Jr has a FRV of 10. All of Maikel Garcia, Michael Massey, and Vinnie Pasquantino have all been above average (each at 2 FRV). Their fortunes haven’t quite been the same in the outfield, but that infield defense is part of why this team has been such a success this year.
San Diego has been the disappointment among those teams mentioned in the primer. Ha-Seong Kim (4) has been very good moving back over to short. Jackson Merrill has been excellent in his taking to center (3). But Jurickson Profar has been below average (-2) and Manny Machado hasn’t had quite the same look since his return to third (-3). Luis Campusano, prior to his injury, was one of the worst defensive catchers in baseball by FRV (-9). Fernando Tatis Jr has been exactly average coming off a Platinum Glove. It’s not that they’ve been outright bad, but they’ve been far more mediocre than expected.
I had also mentioned the Chicago Cubs in that primer. Talk about disappointing. A team built around their defensive identity ranks just 21st in FRV (-9). The metrics largely favor them. Nico Hoerner struggled in April but has elevated his glove again. Michael Busch has been solid in his first full season at first base (3). Pete Crow-Armstrong has been elite (7). But the eye test doesn’t totally support Dansby Swanson’s 6 FRV and Christopher Morel’s transition has been a tough one (-8). Seiya Suzuki (-4) is also developing an unfortunate habit of dropping routine flyballs.
Enough negative, though. Let’s flip over to some present positive.
The Yankees have been remarkable. They ranked 12th in FRV last year (9) and got worse on paper with the additions of Juan Soto & Alex Verdugo. And yet! Each of those two have been above average. Anthony Volpe has been one of the best fielders in all of baseball (8 FRV). Jose Trevino’s mark behind the plate matches Volpe. The early returns on Ben Rice at first have been positive (1).
While Toronto hasn’t experienced the Yankees’ level of success in the standings, their defense is right there. Primarily thanks to the outfield. Daulton Varsho (7), Kevin Kiermaier (6), and George Springer (2) are three of their top four defenders. Alejandro Kirk (7) is the other. The infield fortunes haven’t been as great, but with a pitching staff that allows one of the lowest rates of groundball contact, it seems logical to have that level of excellence on the outfield grass.
Again, the team element is nuanced. Each instance has a particular position group appearing to excel. Milwaukee’s infield. Toronto’s outfield. There’s a pitching element to consider, too. In a very broad context, though, we’ve got the usual suspects (Milwaukee, Kansas City, Arizona) near the top of the leaderboard and some new entries (Toronto, Minnesota). That’s fun.
Tracking Position Changes & Other Improvements/Declines
Back at the end of May, Mike Petriello (again) wrote about how some of the notable position changes were going. We’ve already discussed Harper and mentioned Kim. One covered in his article is Morel, who I’ve also mentioned. But just a little more there.
I’ve been high on Morel’s transition. He’s athletic and has a powerful arm. So when Petriello mentioned he might not be long for the position, I found myself disagreeing. The eye test supported steady improvement. How could my (notoriously terrible according to my optometrist) eyes deceive me? But with the crumbling of the defensive infrastructure around him and a lack of instincts, that FRV figure isn’t a mirage. The Cubs need a new third baseman.
I’d be remiss in not mentioning Mookie Betts. The Los Angeles Dodgers flipped him over to short given the struggles of Gavin Lux in the spring. FRV doesn’t love the change, though. He had a -3 mark prior to his broken hand. Lux has been above average at the keystone, at least.
Then you’ve got your general improvement from guys who didn’t change positions. That starts with Ketel Marte. Marte has been a below-average defender at second base for essentially his entire career. His only season of even average FRV came in 2020. But in ’24, he’s not only shown improvement but elevated himself to one of the best defenders in baseball. He has a FRV of 6 and a DRS of 10. It sounds like positional stability and a renewed focus on the glove side led to the improvement.
Can we talk about Michael Siani for a moment also? The 2024 season has been his first full crack at a full-time gig at the MLB level. That was borne out of necessity, given a high volume of injuries to St. Louis outfielders. But he’s latched onto the starting job in center to the tune of a 10 FRV. Only four players in all of baseball have a FRV up in the double digits.
There are probably some other names worth mentioning, but we’re starting to run long. A few more, though. Carlos Santana has brought a certain stability to the Minnesota infield. Each of Gunnar Henderson & Elly De La Cruz has been excellent in transitioning from split duty at short/third to running full-time at the six. Miguel Rojas might have Wally Pipp’d Betts back over to second base. There’s just so much good defense happening around the game right now.
Why This All Matters (Second Half Edition)
Back in the primer, I noted that every World Series champion since 2016 has ranked in the top 5-10 in at least one of the major defensive metrics. The exception was the 2018 Boston Red Sox. Hard to imagine that Toronto, Texas, or Arizona will be in the mix to continue the trend, given the current standings. Does this mean that our champion could be one of the Yankees, Brewers, Phillies, Royals, Orioles, Twins, or Guardians? Seems like a better-than-not chance. Of course, that neglects to mention the Dodgers or division-leading Seattle Mariners.
It’s also worth revisiting a sentiment I shared back in March. Team defense is important for the sake of finding your team watchable. As teams start to sell and fall out of races completely, that component is important for fans hoping to remain engaged. While fans of teams like Pittsburgh or Washington have some interesting components on their roster without defensive success, squads like the Cubs or Mets don’t offer quite the same level of individual intrigue.
Ultimately, I think the main takeaway as it relates to MLB defense at the midway point is simply the nuance within all of it. We’re reaching a point where defensive metrics hold actual value against the sample size. But roster construction matters. Pitching staff & style matter. Positional stability matters. We’ve seen that present in some key defenders and teams this year. It’ll be extraordinary watching what bearing this holds on close division races as we start to hit the final stretches of 2024.