Welcome to the PLV Power Report! Here, we examine hitter performance by utilizing Power+, a PLV+ metric which indexes a player’s power based on the characteristics of the pitch, i.e., count, location, velocity, induced vertical break, height-adjusted vertical approach angle, and other factors. Essentially, we’re searching for players with upside who are adding power based on the expectation of the individual pitches they see.
For example, say a hitter hits a well-located fastball on the outside corner that might typically coax a weak line drive, but instead, they belt a home run the opposite way; they’ll get a much better power grade for that outcome. Conversely, if that hitter sees a hanging changeup over the heart of the plate, or another pitch that would normally be crushed, and instead pops up to short, they’ll get a much lower score for the outcome. The power metric is unique because it provides a more intuitive way to assess player performance by accounting for the quality of each pitch they see. In other words, it’s a good way to check if a player is over- or underperforming by adding context. Note that Power+, like PLV+ metrics, is normalized to 100 and generally becomes more meaningful after around 75 BBE (batted ball events).
If you’re new to the PLV metrics, you can find Nick’s primer here.
With June in the books, we’ll peek at some rolling charts to see whose power swings are trending in the right and wrong direction. Of course, things can sometimes suddenly reverse course; hitters who look like world beaters might suddenly regress, and vice versa. What seems like a pattern or trend might be nothing more than our brain’s instinctual desire to seek order among entropy. But enough silliness. Let’s see who’s hot and who’s not.
Note: PLV metrics are current through Sunday, June 29.
Fallers
Surprise! We’re starting with the bad. OK, putting Tyler Soderstrom in the fallers bucket might be a little harsh; a 113 wRC+ with 14 dingers about halfway through is nothing to sneeze at. Still, he’s been operating at more than a standard deviation below the average for a while (82 Power+ in June). Soderstrom’s Power+ sits at 110 for the season, which is good, of course, but his recent results have left us recalibrating our excitement; it’s also a touch disappointing relative to what he showed last season (121 Power+; 129 BBE).
Anthony Volpe graduated from prospect status with a chance at becoming an impactful, power-hitting shortstop. He showed above-average power as a rookie in 2023, but struggled with contact. Last year, we saw the reverse: fewer strikeouts, but his quality of contact deteriorated. Volpe has provided value on the bases and with his glove, although Statcast paints him neutral in both respects this season. Regardless, year three felt like a make-or-break point for him to assimilate his ability with the stick. So far, he has shown below-average Contact Ability+ (87) and Power+ (95), with the latter trending south. I can’t completely write off potential future gains; he has at least made good swing decisions this year (114 DV+). Still, I think we’re reaching the point that he might be a league-average hitter at best, as his current 103 wRC+ suggests.
This one hurts. I adored Lars Nootbaar as a breakout candidate. Overall, he continues to pester enemy right-handers, with good bat-to-ball skills (104 Contact Ability+) and swing decisions (105 DV+). But, yeah, his ability to knock the ball over the fence just hasn’t materialized. An 83 Power+ in June is not what I had in mind. Womp womp.
So, the good news regarding Matt McLain is that he has been whiffing less frequently of late, with a 103 Contact Ability+ in June. Hey, that’s above average! But it might be something of a trade-off, with his bat yielding a measly 85 Power+ during the past month.
Rhys Hoskins began the season on a high note, recording a 134 wRC+ and 139 wRC+ in Mar/April and May, respectively. However, an awful June derailed his comeback tour. It’s hard to be excited by his current profile: a slugger with 80 Contact Ability+ and 101 Power+. At least he’s making good swing decisions (122 DV+).
In fairness, Jorge Polanco’s knee injury has almost certainly sapped his power. Nevertheless, he is looking like the sell-high of the year, having hit two home runs since the calendar turned to May.
Marcell Ozuna (139 to 111) and Christian Walker (118 to 104) have seen their Power+ dip this season. I’m a little more optimistic about Ozuna, given that he has also made good swing decisions (120 DV+). Still, it’s probably best to temper expectations at this point, especially with him nursing a hip injury.
Masyn Winn has a knack for putting the bat on the ball (110 Contact Ability+), but he’s gone backwards in the Power department, especially over the past few weeks (81 Power+ in June).
Risers
Jo Adell kicks off our Who’s Hot section. The Halos’ 26-year-old former top prospect has turned into a perennial tease, and, sure, maybe, he’s waiting to pull the wool over our eyes again. However, you’ve got to be impressed by his efforts; he’s just two home runs shy of matching last year’s career-high 20 in about 180 fewer PAs. Among hitters who faced at least 400 pitches in June, Adell’s 135 Power+ in June trails only Aaron Judge (151) and Juan Soto (136). He’s yielded a 123 Power+ for the season, if you prefer the bigger sample size. In case you were wondering, he finished a couple of ticks above the norm last season with a 102 Power+. And if you were wondering if he’s whiffing less frequently this year, the answer is nope; his 93 Contact Ability+ is precisely the same as last year.
Yes, Nick Kurtz is striking out a ton (71 Contact Ability+), but he is inflicting serious pain to baseballs with his barrel. His 126 Power+ is tied with Oneil Cruz for tenth among all hitters who have faced at least 400 pitches this season. He is also making impressive swing decisions (117 DV+).
We know what to expect from Max Muncy, his profile having changed little since last year. Still, he deserves a nod of approval for his fine work in June, including a 131 Power+ and 205 wRC+.
Ben Rice has lost some at-bats with Giancarlo Stanton’s return. Still, there would appear to be a very good reason why Yankee skipper Aaron Boone has been willing to try Rice at catcher. The 26-year-old lefty has recorded a 120 Power+ across 175 BBE.
Riley Greene had himself a fantastic June, hitting .360 with six dingers and a 191 wRC+ across 109 PAs. Greene’s bat yielded a 120 Power+ last year, but he’s been off the charts this season; his 130 Power+ ranks ninth among all hitters who have faced at least 400 pitches.
Jonathan Aranda snapped out of a power malaise this past weekend at Baltimore, launching his ninth and tenth longballs of the year. If there’s one breakout batter who you might still be able to get for a fair price, and who perhaps hasn’t quite reached his apex, it’s Aranda. His 129 Power+ suggests a ceiling a bit better than his current 20-ish home run pace. Junior Caminero gets most of the attention for the Rays, and rightfully so; he’s a phenomenal talent. However, Aranda is probably their best overall hitter right now, and a big reason why the Rays remain in the thick of things in the AL East.
This year’s breakout, Pete Crow-Armstrong, has seen his power dip in June. Still, his 116 Power+ is about a standard deviation above league average and a terrific increase from last year’s mark of 96.
Saving the best for last, we have James Wood, you know, the man who became the first player since Bonds to draw four intentional walks in a single game last Sunday. He didn’t have a huge June by his standards, at least. Nonetheless, he has seen his Power+ soar from 121 to 134 this year. Wood trails only Aaron Judge (150), Shohei Ohtani (146), Ronald Acuña Jr. (137), Pete Alonso (136), and Kyle Schwarber (135) in Power+ among hitters who have seen at least 400 pitches. And he is also the latest example of why MLB needs to kick the current All-Star voting system to the curb.
Deep League Watchlist
Nolan Gorman fell off the radar last season, hitting .203 with an 87 wRC+ across 402 PAs, but he pulled an Undertaker this past month, going yard six times while hitting .267 with a 150 wRC+. The sample size (334 pitches) was a little short, and you know he’ll lose some at-bats against lefties, but a 140 Power+ is impossible to ignore.
If you’re rummaging the waiver wire, and are piqued by the Rocket’s son, Kody Clemens, yes, his nine home runs might not be a total mirage (116 Power+; 94 BBE).
Unfortunately, Gabriel Arias is headed to the IL with a nasty ankle injury. However, he is someone to keep on your watchlist (110 Power+;170 BBE).
Buy Low
Yes, the Pittsburgh Pirates are an unmitigated mess, and yet, the PLV machine fully endorses Bryan Reynolds as deserving of far better results than his current 93 wRC+.
I’ll admit, I would like to ignore the Rockies. However, Ryan McMahon’s 120 Power+ suggests he could be poised for a pretty decent summer, and he’ll probably cost you next to nothing.
