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The Shared Trauma of the 2026 Tigers, Mariners, and Blue Jays

October baseball can be oh so cruel.

Pablo Figueroa
Baseball 5 Hours Ago

As sports fans, we all have at least one traumatic loss that will never go away. In my case, seeing the Giants fall on Game 5 of the 2021 NLDS still brings back awful memories, especially as the franchise itself has not been the same since that day. In that vein, the worst part of a terrible loss is that organizations and players have to live with them well beyond the loss itself, often creating scenarios where falling short becomes only the first step towards a dreadful stretch.

Sometimes, teams can be so well-run that a devastating loss can be flipped into movation, as exemplified by the 2013-14 San Antonio Spurs, or even the 2014-15 Kansas City Royals. On the flip side, the Atlanta Falcons have not been the same since 28-3. The Yankees’ dynasty ways essentially died after blowing a 3-0 lead in the 2004 ALCS. The Texas Rangers needed a decade to get over their collapse in Game 6 of the 2011 World Series.

We could go on and on down memory lane, especially as playoff baseball has its unique way of delivering trauma. After all, the daily nature of the game provides plenty of respite for teams that can go through a bad day during the season knowing full well that they can get vindication in only a matter of hours. Conversely, falling just short in October takes that immediacy out of the equation, as the feeling of a missed opportunity lingers for a long time. Front offices and rosters are aware that any trip to October may become the last chance to win with that particular mix of players, and that the road back comes with no guarantees.

Every October ouster is not created equal, as it would sometimes seem better to just be swept or have run-of-the-mill losses as the deciding factor. Take the three AL playoff entrants who are repeating in October after a quick 2025 exit. The Red Sox were clearly overmatched by the Yankees, who in turn could only summon one win in the ALDS. The Guardians were probably happy enough to be there after an improbable division crown, falling in a close but unremarkable series against the team they had passed in the standings.

What brings us here today is understanding what happened to the missing three teams from the 2025 AL playoff field who won’t be playing this October. It would have been understandable, even expected, if one of them fell short of expectations. Two could have been an anomaly, but that’s just baseball, right? But seeing that the three of them will now face an uncertain offseason full of question marks is outright bizarre.

The Blue Jays, Mariners, and Tigers were not only considered locks for the playoffs, but they were also consensus top-10 teams in all relevant preseason power rankings and projections. Instead of playing into that narrative, all of them failed to launch at several points of the season, which was even more shocking in a mediocre American League where an 81-win team will host a wild card round. Instead, all three finished with losing records and out of playoff contention before the final week. Despite plenty of opportunities to climb back, there was simply no way of getting things fixed, leading to this shared fate.

Coming back to the premise of this article, maybe we should head back to last October to understand how it all could have gone so wrong for three franchises that combined for 271 wins just a season ago. Facing each other and then as the AL representative in the World Series, Detroit, Seattle, and Toronto were not only gradually eliminated from the playoffs; they did so in increasingly dramatic fashion, as they were all arguably one swing or pitch away from changing their fate. As they now get to face the tougher challenge of regrouping and making sense of a failed 2026, it is important to understand how they got to this juncture.

 

October 2025

 

As a wild card team, the Tigers went the distance against the Guardians, but parlayed a commanding Game 3 win into an exciting ALDS against the Mariners, who had emerged as the 2-seed in the AL. While the first two games were tight one-run affairs, followed by a couple of blowouts, the decisive Game 5 became an instant classic and one of the most dramatic playoff games in modern history. Detroit squandered an early lead as a 2-2 contest was set for extra innings, where the Tigers wasted several scoring opportunities but also had clutch relief pitching that extended the game all the way to the 15th, where Jorge Polanco finally delivered the winning knock.

Being on the losing end of the longest winner-take-all game in MLB history certainly has to sting, but it would look almost harmless compared to what the winning Mariners would endure a few days later.

In a battle against the 1-seed Blue Jays, Seattle would win the first two games on the road, looking well on their way to the franchise’s first pennant. Blowing that early lead became moot when the team won Game 5, giving them two more chances to clinch in a stadium where they had won twice. Game 6 was not much of a contest thanks to Trey Yesavage’s brilliance, but the M’s managed to pull themselves together and jump to a 3-1 lead in the decisive Game 7. As starter Bryan Woo tired by the seventh, manager Dan Wilson opted to bring in Eduard Bazardo instead of all-world closer Andres Muñoz to face playoff legend George Springer. It went as expected.

The shock to Seattle’s core was astounding, as their offense would go in order in the final two frames, including a three-strikeout ninth in which their batters flailed at several breaking balls. Toronto’s comeback led them to their first World Series in three decades, where they would become clear underdogs. Alas, an even bigger pain had yet to reveal itself for this AL crowd.

The 2025 World Series has to be considered among the top sporting events of the century, as the contrasting styles of both teams, geographical situations, and constant drama made every game a must-watch. The Blue Jays held two series leads, winning Game 1 and then quickly recovering from the devastating 18-inning loss in Game 3 to take the last two in LA and set up a double chance to win the series at home. While Game 6 was a pitching masterpiece from Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Game 7 seemed to be a coronation for the pesky Blue Jays, taking a 3-0 lead that eventually became a 4-2 advantage by the eighth. Not even a solo homer in the eighth put a dent in Toronto’s armor, as they were three outs away from a title with their closer facing the bottom of the Dodgers’ order.

After a quick first out, light-hitting Miguel Rojas guessed right on a lazy slider, silencing the home crowd with a solo homer that sent the game to extras. It is still shocking to see.

As the game headed to extras and LA scored in the 11th, the Blue Jays still showed enough fight to put the tying run at third with only one out, only for Alejandro Kirk to ground into a series-ending double play that probably still plays on a loop on the hearts of Toronto fans.

This double-whammy of gut punches became the third straight round for an AL team losing in true heart-breaking fashion. With three rosters mostly intact and the possibility to make 2026 a revenge year, the baseball gods decided to inflict even further punishment.

 

The 2026 Season

 

Despite the sky-high expectations set upon these three teams, they all fell to the same traps in an exhausting 2026 campaign. The Blue Jays lost Bo Bichette to free agency and knew that Shane Bieber would start the season on the IL, but the signings of Kazuma Okamoto and Dylan Cease, along with further development from their young core, were expected to offset any issues. Toronto quickly fell out of the AL East race, as they were never back in first place after March 31, when they completed an opening-series sweep. A six-game losing streak in early April sent shockwaves through the organization, and they could never recover from it. The Blue Jays failed to win more than four straight games at any point, while only posting a winning, convincing month with a 17-11 August that raised hopes that at least a wild card would be in play.

Instead, the same inconsistency issues that plagued the Jays never left the building, while some of its stars regressed from a stellar 2025 to a downright bad 2026. Trey Yesavage was limited to 20 middling starts. Kirk missed several months. Kevin Gausman was inconsistent and ultimately traded. Springer finally showed his age. The team gave Patrick Corbin 15 starts (on purpose!) and closed the season with several bullpen games. A special mention has to be given to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ’s sudden decline, as he followed up his transcendent postseason with a clunker of a season, hitting only nine homers and ending 2026 amid controversy surrounding an interview in which he suggested his multi-year contract should not come with high expectations.

Even as Okamoto became a solid regular, Cease flirted with Cy Young contention, and Louis Varland became an excellent closer, there was not much to salvage this train wreck, as the contrast between the 2025 Blue Jays and their 2026 counterparts is astounding. Toronto’s offense went from a top-10 unit that scored 4.92 runs per game to literally the lowest-scoring team in MLB. Even as the staff was able to sustain identical 3.89 team ERAs, the lack of offense became too much to overcome. Toronto scored zero or one run in 30 games, had the lowest walk rate in the AL, and hit the fewest number of homers in baseball.

Seattle’s demise is similarly easy to understand, as they followed many of the same patterns as their ALCS tormentors. The Mariners lost a playoff hero in Polanco to free agency, but were quick to extend Josh Naylor and trust in the same all-in core that led them oh so close to their first pennant. Unlike the Blue Jays, though, Seattle did have several chances to seize control of their division, as a weak AL West provided plenty of leeway. The M’s spent more than 40 days in first place despite only posting one winning month, while a three-game winning streak after the All-Star break looked like the perfect springboard towards a return to October.

Instead, Seattle would never win three straight again, seeing their roster go from unbeatable to helpless on a daily basis. The Mariners even had the chance to face a September schedule full of last-place teams, only to be upended by a bad A’s team that essentially knocked them out of the race. Seattle’s version of Vladdy was the shocking (but predictable) downturn of Cal Raleigh, who went from 60 homers in 2025 to a .664 OPS in 2026, and that is after a solid September took his OBP close to .300. In retrospect, Raleigh’s heavy usage in their division-winning year bordered on irresponsible, as no catcher should ever have to endure that many games without taking a break.

What is hard to explain comes all over the roster, as everyone except Randy Arozarena (5.7 WAR) and newcomer Cole Young have plenty to explain. Julio Rodríguez could not justify his usual slow start with a strong second half. Naylor picked up more Twitter fights than positive WAR. Bryan Woo pitched like a Cy Young candidate at home but a #5 starter on the road. Luis Castillo was terrible and traded. The rest of the rotation regressed badly, while closer Muñoz lost his ability to strike batters out.

While Seattle’s staff remained in the same tax bracket in terms of run prevention, their lack of dominance turned a really good team into a mediocre one, while several of manager Dan Wilson’s tactics came into question throughout the season. Seattle’s performance in one-run and extra-inning games was good enough, but they also lost 42 games after leading, which is quite the opposite of what the 2025 M’s had accomplished. The perfect microcosm for this contrast can be found in Bazardo’s numbers, going from a shutdown setup man with a 2.52 ERA in 2025 to an unreliable option with a 4.01 ERA and four blown saves in 2026. In many ways, it’s as if Springer’s blast closed the door on this era of Seattle baseball with a single swing.

Detroit’s case is harder to explain and understand, as they entered 2026 with almost an entitlement that a playoff spot was a given. Playing in the AL Central explains most of that, but the Tigers were also returning a solid roster that included the back-to-back AL Cy Young Award winner along with the internal addition of rookie Kevin McGonigle, who had the hype of being the best homegrown player the organization had seen in decades. They even signed veteran Framber Valdez to shore up the rotation, making them heavy favorites in a division full of rebuilding teams with limited budgets.

On paper, the Tigers were among the best teams in the AL, finishing with a +71 run differential that was only bested by the Rays, Yankees, and Red Sox. Alas, their win total fell 13 games short of their expected wins, which is shocking in its own way. In fact, Detroit’s overall numbers from year to year stayed pretty much intact, and even became a top-10 pitching staff in its own right. The major difference came in the form of situational baseball, as the Tigers were simply atrocious in close affairs. Detroit’s 23-52 mark in games decided by two or fewer runs almost reads like a misprint, but it includes 11 walk-off losses, 32 blown saves, and a lack of clutch hitting that could be seen as a fluke until you consider the big picture.

The Tigers had collapsed in late 2025, finishing the regular season 34-53, immediately followed by a 22-38 start in 2026. That adds up to a 61-win full season’s pace, which is far from a fluke. Detroit never got close to the division lead after early May, and while solid months in June and July kept the dream of a wild card alive, the front office waved the white flag by trading Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize at the deadline. McGonigle delivered way more than could have been expected with a 7.1 WAR season that should net him AL Rookie of the Year, while Troy Melton emerged as a solid starter, but there were just too many uncompetitive at-bats by the offense to overcome the downward trend this team had. In the end, they fell victim to the same problems in that infamous 15-inning game in Seattle.

 

Aftermath

 

In a vacuum, all three teams should feel the aftershocks of this season with plenty of regrets and similar disappointment. However, how they approach the next stage for their franchises looks completely different.

The Tigers appear to have the simplest path forward, as they should retain most of their impact players while still being part of a weaker division. Gleyber Torres is set to become the biggest impending free agent for the franchise, and he is probably good as gone after posting an average year. On the flip side, the graduation of McGonigle and Melton gives the organization two great players to build around, while the Skubal trade has reinvigorated the team’s farm system to become a top-10 collection of young talent.

For what it’s worth, the Tigers’ underperformance should translate into positive regression for next year, when they should be projected to be atop the Central. However, some rumblings about manager AJ Hinch’s decisions have become louder, and he is expected to have a shorter leash if the team again fails to play to its level. Detroit will probably need a closer and a couple of extra arms to shore up their staff, while some of its hitting prospects could be called up as early as next season.

This level of optimism is nowhere close to what the Mariners are experiencing. The last game of the season produced the firing of manager Dan Wilson. The move was expected, but it was still sad to see how the team summarized its failings in 2026 with the dramatic ouster of its skipper. As the organization looks for a new field manager, the status of POBO Jerry Dipoto has been called into question. He has run the Mariners for 11 seasons now, achieving only a couple of playoff appearances, and will now have to explain how his most all-in season went sideways.

Much like the Tigers, Seattle has amassed a nice baseline of young talent, and even called up prospects Michael Arroyo and Lazaro Montes for the final stretch. The impending free agency of Randy Arozarena should also provide a blueprint for how this team sees itself, as he will probably command a multi-year deal in the eight-figure realm. The Mariners ran a league-average payroll in 2025 and should now have plenty of flexibility to not only re-sign Randy, but also add significant talent. In an AL West where not much change is expected in terms of contenders and pretenders, the M’s should be in a good spot as long as they can get over their many failings.

Finally, the Blue Jays and their front office are facing plenty of tough decisions and questions, as many are starting to wonder if the 2025 playoff run was only a mirage. After all, Vladdy’s bad season was more on par with his mercurial personality, while trying to be competitive in the AL East is always a tall task, regardless of money. Toronto does not have many impactful prospects waiting in the wings, but they are also not at risk of losing any significant free agents, as George Springer and Max Scherzer were unlikely to re-up with the franchise.

Instead, Toronto must face the reality that maybe their roster is simply not good enough and must try to improve in terms of depth, while also hoping for better injury luck. Toronto’s financial commitments project towards a top-10 payroll in 2027, but it would be foolish to stand pat in a season that could prove crucial for the franchise. The team’s 2025 playoff run and subsequent season generated an excitement around the city that had not been seen in a decade, resulting in the top attendance in the AL during 2026. Manager John Schneider and the rest of the team’s braintrust should be safe for the time being, and so the organization will enter next year with plenty to prove. The key will be to make sure that 2026 was the fluke.

Pablo Figueroa

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Pablo Figueroa is a Baseball Writer here at Pitcher List, with experience as a writer since 2013. He lives in Aguascalientes, Mexico - proud home of Los Rieleros. When he´s not thinking about baseball , he's a husband, owns two dogs, watches random episodes of The Sopranos , plays padel, and works on his day job to pay the bills.

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