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Things to Watch During the Regular Season’s Final Week

Will the Angels finally lose 100 games?

Pablo Figueroa
Misc An Hour Ago

As we are about to embark on what promises to be an exciting postseason just before a winter of uncertainty, there is still the matter of the regular season’s final week. In all fairness, September has settled most of the story lines that loomed at the beginning of the month, including most individual award races, division titles, and milestones that were up for grabs. However, there are still a handful of key developments that can still unfold over the final seven days.

Division Races

All three NL divisions have been decided, with the Dodgers, Atlanta, and Milwaukee again showing their dominance. Between the three of them, they have combined to win 15 out of 18 NL division crowns since 2021, becoming clear October fixtures in the process. Their positioning is almost mostly set in stone, as the Brewers hold what amounts to a three-game lead atop the league and are in line to earn the first 100-win season in franchise history, setting LA up for the #2 seed and a first-round bye. Atlanta would then be the #3 team and have a home series in the wild-card round.

The AL is a completely different animal. Tampa Bay’s hot stretch of play has almost locked the AL East for them, and they will now get a rare double chance to clinch on Tuesday, when they host a double-header against the Yankees. This comes as part of a four-game set between these powerhouses, and any win by the Rays will give them their first division title since 2021.

The Central and West feature multiple combinations and complications, giving us plenty of drama and scoreboard-watching throughout the week. In the Central, the Guardians and White Sox will take it down to the wire, as Cleveland has taken advantage of Chicago’s swoon to take the division lead, which currently stands at one game. However, the Sox have the tiebreaker in hand and a favorable closing schedule, making things really hard to predict.

Guardians: 3 at Boston, 3 at Kansas City
White Sox: 3 at Kansas City, 3 vs Colorado

Fangraphs gives both teams what amounts to a 50/50 split to win the division, which would be a big deal considering it is bound to become the #2 seed in the AL and give a first-round bye. However, both are also in prime position to earn the league’s final wild card spot, which becomes a bigger thing for a White Sox franchise that has not played in October since 2021 and is coming off three straight 100-loss seasons.

The West was supposed to be a three-team race until the bitter end, but Seattle’s collapse has left a Texas-sized skirmish between the Rangers and Astros. Both teams are recent World Series winners and enough veterans to pose a threat in the postseason, but getting there is not a given for any of them.

Houston’s brutal weekend home sweep to Atlanta has left them a game behind the Rangers, although they hold the tiebreaker and now only need to be one game better than Texas. Despite this disadvantage, Fangraphs still projects the Astros to have a better shot, likely because of their softer schedule.

Rangers: 3 vs Mets, 3 at Minnesota
Astros: 2 at Seattle, 4 at Athletics

The loser of this race will probably rue the missed opportunity, although they can still make October via the wild card (more on that below). The winner, which could still come via a losing record, is almost guaranteed to become the #3 seed and host a playoff series, which looks terribly unjust considering how bad the AL West has been as a whole.

The Wild Cards

The NL is simultaneously set and a mess, with three really good teams that could never catch up to their even better division leaders. The Cubs, Phillies, and Padres stand only a game apart in the standings, setting up a final week where they will battle for positioning, as the difference between the #4 and #6 seed may be massive.

Chicago holds the tiebreaker against both Philly and the Friars, while the Phillies went 6-0 against the Padres, making San Diego the odd team out in case of any ties. However, the Padres have been one of the best teams in September, almost making their final series against the Diamondbacks a moot point. Arizona is still technically alive at four games back of the last wild card spot, but they would need a massive collapse from any member of this trio to have a chance.

Cubs: 3 vs Miami, 3 at Boston
Padres: 3 at Dodgers, 3 vs Arizona
Phillies: 3 vs Brewers, 3 vs Tampa Bay

Over at the AL, the uncertain nature of the division races creates a more chaotic scenario, albeit one where the end result may not be all that relevant in the postseason. The Yankees and Red Sox have held their spots for a long time now, with New York almost locked to the 4-seed and ready to host the Boston in what promises to be a massive wild-card matchup. The final AL wild card was also supposed to be a race until the end, but the inability of teams like Toronto, Baltimore, and Seattle to have a winning September has created a situation in which the Central’s runner-up is almost guaranteed to play a road series against their division foe.

Toronto’s playoff odds stand below 5% as they lose the tiebreaker to the White Sox and at least have the advantage over the Guardians. Alas, this means that they are four game behind either way, with only six games to play. The Blue Jays face a situation in which they must win six straight and hope that someone in the Central has a really bad week. Considering that Toronto’s longest winning streak in 2026 stands at four games, this looks almost impossible.

Blue Jays: 3 at Baltimore, 3 vs Cincinnati

Individual Awards

Cam Schlittler and Jacob Misiorowski used a strong September to secure their first Cy Young awards, while Pete Crow-Armstrong took advantage of Shohei Ohtani’s absence to ensure his numbers could not be overlooked towards his first NL MVP. This means most of the drama has been stripped from the major award races, but AL MVP at least has some intrigue to go around as the season comes to a close.

Yordan Alvarez’s late-season slump has produced the opposite effect, as what once looked like an obvious pick for AL MVP has become somewhat of a contest. Alvarez was once battling for a triple crown, but he enters the final week of 2026 only leading the AL in batting average. Alvarez has been surpassed by Junior Caminero in homers (41 to 40), while he now is 6 RBI behind Pete Alonso in the leaderboard. This makes the triple crown unlikely, but Alvarez can still make his case by having a good final week and leading the Astros back to the playoffs.

On the other hand, missing October could be the deciding factor even if there is no clear MVP in the junior circuit. Oddsmakers have given at least some attention to Caminero and even Schlittler for AL MVP, but it is still Alvarez’s award to lose.

Other things to Watch

–Pete Crow-Armstrong needs only two steals to secure a 40/40 season. He and Kyle Schwarber are the only players within reach of 50 homers, starting the week with 45

-Cincinnati’s Sal Stewart is one RBI behind the league lead, with 110. He could join Ted Williams and Walt Dropo as the only rookies to lead MLB in RBI

-Colorado’s Hunter Goodman and New York’s Ben Rice have 39 homers, while Pete Alonso has 38. They are the only players still with a realistic chance to reach the 40-homer club, which only has five members in 2026 so far.

-The 100 RBI club is much more crowded, but Junior Caminero at 97 could get even more MVP support if he reaches triple digits

–Nasim Nuñez and Chandler Simpson stand tied atop the steals leaderboard with 46, holding a strong chance of reaching 50

–Michael Wacha stands at 194.1 innings and is set for a weekend start against the Guardians. He could become only the third pitcher to reach 200 innings, joining Sandy Alcantara and Cristopher Sánchez

–Jacob Misiorowski and Gavin Williams will likely get one more start to decide who is MLB’s strikeout king, as the Miz has 247 and Williams 244

-Tampa Bay’s Bryan Baker leads MLB with 40 saves, but other closers have a chance to reach the 40 mark. This includes Cade Smith (39), Riley O’Brien (38), and Mason Miller (37)

-The Angels need to go at least 3-3 to avoid the first 100-loss season in franchise history. The Rockies woul need a perfect 6-0 week to avoid that fate, while the A’s only need to win two games to stay out of the triple-digit loss ignominy

 

Pablo Figueroa

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Pablo Figueroa is a Baseball Writer here at Pitcher List, with experience as a writer since 2013. He lives in Aguascalientes, Mexico - proud home of Los Rieleros. When he´s not thinking about baseball , he's a husband, owns two dogs, watches random episodes of The Sopranos , plays padel, and works on his day job to pay the bills.

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