Tier 6
41. Nico Hoerner (2B/SS, CHC) – Those in deeper formats should probably move Hoerner up within this tier as stolen bases have a higher premium in those leagues, but even in shallow leagues, you are welcome to get excited about his 43 stolen bases in 2023. Fifteen is probably the hard ceiling for home runs for the slap-hitting middle infielder, but the excellent contact ability and the ever-present green light should allow Hoerner to come close to matching his 2023 stat line in 2024.
42. Paul Goldschmidt (1B, STL) – The plate discipline is still there and Goldschmidt should still be locked into the heart of the Cardinals order, but age may finally be catching up to the 36-year-old after posting his lowest 162-game season home run total since 2016. I think there’s a good chance to clear 25 home runs in another full season (Goldy hasn’t missed more than 11 games in a season since 2014), but we should probably recalibrate our expectations for batting average and stolen bases as he posted a 27th percentile speed according to Statcast. I don’t think he’ll be a dud in the ratio department, but it isn’t easy to hit .300 when you start to slow down physically.
43. Adley Rutschman (C, BAL) – Rutschman finished as the second-best fantasy catcher in 2023 thanks to his positive contributions across the board (except for stolen bases, but he’s a catcher so that doesn’t count). He’ll be just 26 years old at the start of 2024 and Rutschman has already proven he has elite plate discipline and contact ability. His rolling chart for contact ability (below) shows that every single 200-swing sample we have for Adley was in the 90th percentile or better, which is a truly remarkable accomplishment for a backstop in his first full season in the majors.
Rutschman can’t challenge Smith or Contreras in the power department, but thanks to Rutschman’s everyday presence in the lineup (he had 76 more plate appearances than any other catcher in 2023), he has the highest floor at the position and more than enough upside to lead all catchers in every fantasy stat except for home runs and stolen bases.
44. Alex Bregman (3B, HOU) – Bregman’s 2023 closely resembled his 2023 in just about every way, and I expect 2024 to be yet another re-run (not that it’s a bad thing). 20-25 home runs, 180-200 combined runs and RBI, and a .260/.365/.450ish line can be penciled in now and probably gone over in ink by next September.
45. Christian Walker (1B, ARI) – Make it back-to-back seasons with over 30 home runs and finishing inside the top 35 hitters for Walker, who should continue to see a boost in counting stats thanks to Arizona’s rise to relevance. The Diamondbacks may not have the deepest lineup out there, but Carroll and Marte should get on base often enough to give Walker a good chance to get to 100 RBI again to go along with his 30 home run floor. The second straight season of a sub-20% strikeout rate also means that his batting average should be more neutral than it is negative.
46. Will Smith (C, LAD) – Smith has finished among the top three catchers for three consecutive seasons thanks to his plus power and prime spot within the potent Dodger lineup. Thanks to three very consistent seasons, Smith is an easy player to project on the back of a napkin—22-25 home runs, 70-80 runs scored, 75-85 RBI, and a .260 batting average. That easily makes Smith a top-three catcher again, and while I think Adley has a higher floor because of the 20 to 30 extra points of batting average, you could argue Smith’s extra handful of home runs is more valuable to your team by this point in the draft.
47. Nolan Arenado (3B, STL) – For the first time in his career, Nolan Arenado played over 135 games and failed to hit 30 home runs and drive in 100 runners in a single season. That’s the kind of career he’s had to date. Heading into his age-33 season, I can’t necessarily project a return to 30 home runs in 2024, but if the Cardinals can be at all better than they were in 2023 (and by all accounts, they should be), the counting stats and power should be more than enough to return to the top-50 or 60 hitters (he finished 71st in 2023).
48. Nolan Jones (1B/OF, COL) – Jones was quite good for most of his 2023 debut (besides July), but he turned it on in September, posting a 16.4% walk rate, 21.1% strikeout rate, and a .349/.461/.651 line with seven home runs and 46 combined runs and RBI. The 21.1% strikeout rate is what stands out to me in this line, as Jones’s power was a known commodity from his prospect days, and landing in Colorado made it even more likely that his power would play to some degree. If Jones can take a step forward in his decision-making against breaking balls, we could see a new gear to his game that looks more like his September line, but I’m guessing we don’t get quite that good of a result. I’m thinking something like 25 home runs, another 20 stolen bases, and a volatile (but not necessarily bad) batting average with good-not-great counting stats on a bad Rockies offense.
49. Gleyber Torres (2B, NYY) – It’s difficult to foresee exactly where in the lineup the Yankees will put their most dependable player of 2023 with the addition of Soto, but the improved offense around him should mean that his counting stats will improve to at least some degree in 2024. I wouldn’t count on many more home runs (25) or stolen bases (13) this season, but if he brings the impressive improvement to his plate discipline back in 2024, it should keep those ratios high and give way to a significant boost to his runs scored and RBI.
50. Dansby Swanson (SS, CHC) – Swanson hit more ground balls than usual in 2023 and it led to slightly lackluster numbers in home runs and batting average, but he remained a dependable player who can accumulate counting stats due to his durability and place in the lineup. It’s hard to say what the Cubs lineup will look like on opening day due to the number of players they’ve been attached to this offseason, but he should stay somewhere in the top six spots and that’s all Dansby needs to get another 160-170 combined runs and RBI along with 20-25 home runs and close to 10 stolen bases.
51. Yandy Díaz (1B, TBR) – The 22 home runs were cool, but the elevated fly ball rate Díaz showed early in 2023 was an apparition, meaning those 22 reflect Díaz’s ceiling more than his baseline or floor. He should continue to score 90 or more runs and hit .300 or better at the top of the Rays lineup, though, so while a return to the top 30 hitters is a bit of a stretch, being in or around the top 50 hitters is quite feasible, and Yandy’s floor is exceptionally high thanks to his plate discipline and contact ability.
52. Josh Naylor (1B, CLE) – A drop in strikeout rate and groundball rate helped unlock more of Naylor’s potential, particularly when it comes to batting average. Runs may continue to be hard to come by with the extreme lack of depth in Cleveland (though the development of Bo Naylor and Manzardo could alleviate this to some extent), but 90-100 RBI should be in reach hitting fourth for this top-heavy lineup. Those counting stats plus about 20 home runs and a .285 or better batting average would be a nice addition to any fantasy squad.
53. Xander Bogaerts (SS, SDP) – Bogaerts rebounded nicely from his awkward 2022 with 19 home runs and 19 stolen bases in his first season with the Friars while maintaining strong ratios. I expect Bogaerts to lead off in San Diego following the Soto news, which means he may struggle to clear 60 RBI, but on the bright side, he should score 85 or more runs in front of Tatis and Machado despite the loss of Soto.
Tier 7
54. Cody Bellinger (1B/OF, FA) – It was a second breakout for Bellinger in 2023 as he set career bests in strikeout rate, batting average, and stolen bases while putting up his most productive season since 2019. These dramatic turnarounds are hard enough to process on their own, but when they come with a career-worst barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity, it’s nearly impossible. I can’t ignore the actual results, but the concerning underlying numbers leave me quite skeptical that Bellinger can repeat without actually changing what he is as a hitter—something we aren’t asking anyone else in the top 40 to do.
55. Josh Lowe (OF, TBR) – Lowe started hot, got very cold, and then was hot again, which makes projecting for him a frustrating endeavor. I think the 20 home runs seem about right based on his minor league track record and scouting grades, and the Rays are so aggressive on the base path that 32 stolen bases are certainly attainable. The strikeout rate is the number to watch, as the prolonged slump for Lowe was closely tied to strikeout issues over the summer. Lowe was never a good decision-maker at any point in 2023, but he did manage to improve his ability to make contact against lefties towards the end of the season and also against breaking pitches (see below), and if that continues then we can expect another strong season. If he regresses with the contact against breakers, though, it could be a bumpy ride with a low floor.
56. J.T. Realmuto (C, PHI) – It wasn’t a bad season for Realmuto by any means—he did steal 16 bases and hit 20 home runs—but for the first time in what feels like forever, he finished outside the top five catchers in 2023. The rise of several young catchers combined with a bit of a down year in terms of batting average and contact led to his lowest full-season RBI total since 2016 (63) were the most likely culprits, and while I do think the batting average and/or strikeout rate can rebound a bit, it’s hard to see him find his way back to the top of the catcher class. As a fun fact, the last primary catcher not named J.T. Realmuto to steal at least 10 bases was Yadi Molina in 2012.
57. Ketel Marte (2B, ARI) – Marte rebounded in a big way in basically every category we use for fantasy and now finds himself batting near the top of the order for a team that actually can score runs. 25 home runs is probably the high end of what to expect in 2024, but the 94 runs scored and 82 RBI from 2023 shouldn’t be much different from his 2024 totals. Slap a .275 or better batting average and a .350 or better OBP on it, and you’ve got a solid second baseman.
58. Spencer Torkelson (1B, DET) – The ratios continue to lag, but the power was on display in 2023 as Torkelson hit 31 home runs with 27 of those dingers coming on or after June 4th (106 games, which is a 41 home run pace over 162 games). Tork’s high flyball rate will likely keep his average from being more than neutral in spacious Comerica Park, but with this kind of power, he just needs to hit closer to .250 to unlock his fantasy potential. Some additional help around him would be nice, such as a healthy Greene and a free agent or two, as it would boost his counting stat potential. I love looking at this rolling chart of his power—it takes a special player to add more than double the number of expected extra bases for almost 100 batted balls.
59. Triston Casas (1B, BOS) – Casas hit his stride in the second half, hitting 15 home runs while slashing .317/414/.617 with just a 23.7% strikeout rate. There’s 30+ home run power with Casas, and he was a strong decision-maker for all of 2023. If Casas can keep the Red Sox comfortable enough to start him against lefties, he should get enough plate appearances to get to 30 home runs and 90 RBI, but his extremely passive ways and his swing-and-miss issues against lefties present just enough of a risk that he falls a bit short. For what it’s worth, I think most folks will prefer Casas to Torkelson (especially in OBP leagues, where Casas is clearly the superior choice).
60. Josh Jung (3B, TEX) – An injury interrupted an excellent rookie season for Jung, but he turned it around in time for the playoffs and looked every bit like the exciting power hitter we hoped for. The strikeout rate remains high due to his aggression at the plate, especially against breaking balls that escalated as the season went on (see below). The injury risk (he’s missed significant time in each of the last two seasons) and the exploitable swing aggression keep me from pushing up higher, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he approaches the top 30 on the Hitter List within a few weeks of play.
