Welcome back to the 2025 two-start pitcher rankings!
Each week, I’ll break down all the projected two-start starters and group them into four tiers: Set and Forget, Probably Start, Questionable, and Avoid. Set-and-Forget starters are simply that; get them in your lineup and don’t think twice. The Most Likely tier includes players with a mix of skill and matchups that make them almost certainly two-start plays, but not without some elevated risk compared to the top tier. Questionable starters are those best suited for daily lineup leagues, where you can bench them against the tougher of their two opponents; they’re more situation-dependent in weekly leagues. Finally, we have the Avoid tier, which includes two start SPs who should remain on your bench or the wire.
I’ll also be highlighting one Two-Start Streamer of the Week. The criteria for a streamer will be a rostered rate under 50% in Yahoo & ESPN leagues. The Streamer of the Week will be highlighted in green in the tables.
This week, there are a lot of aces scheduled to take the bump for multiple starts. That leaves us with a smaller group of streaming options, but there are still a handful of guys worth targeting in one way or another. Let’s dive in.
As a friendly reminder, the projected starters are just that, projections. They are subject to change.
Set-and-Forget
- This tier is headlined by two of the very best pitchers in baseball: Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes. They’re both Tier One arms in the Pitcher List rankings, so getting both guys for multiple starts this week is extremely appealing. Additionally, the matchups for both are solid, with Skubal taking on the Brewers and Royals and Skenes getting the Nationals and Guardians.
- Jack Flaherty is also tentatively scheduled for two starts for the Tigers. While he’s not Skubal, he’s still an excellent pitcher in his own right. He hasn’t been quite as good as his 1.62 ERA suggests—his xERA is nearly two full runs higher at 3.45—but he’s piling up strikeouts and should be a solid source of production vs. the Brewers and Royals.
- Max Fried just barely misses the cut for Tier One in the Pitcher List rankings, landing instead as the top arm in Tier Two. That’s still more than good enough to justify a spot in the “set-and-forget” tier this week. He’s pitched well in his first three starts with the Yankees, and his matchups for the upcoming week are fine.
- Dylan Cease is the other Tier Two arm in this tier, though he hasn’t quite looked like himself to start the season. His matchups are also a bit more difficult than Fried’s—home vs. the Cubs and on the road against the Astros—but there’s no reason to panic with him yet.
- Framber Valdez is as steady as they come for fantasy baseball. He struggled a bit two starts ago vs. the Giants, but he’s pitched 13 scoreless innings in his other two outings. He also continues to pile up strikeouts, so there’s no reason to take him out of your lineup.
- Jesús Luzardo is the wildcard in this tier. He would not have been close to these guys in the preseason rankings, but it’s hard to knock what he’s done through his first three starts. He’s pitched to a 1.50 ERA with a 36.2% strikeout rate, and two of those starts have come against the Dodgers and Braves. Consistency has always been Luzardo’s biggest issue, but if he can dominate against some of the best offenses in baseball, he undoubtedly deserves to be started against the Giants and Marlins.
Most Likely
- Joe Ryan is the best pitcher in this tier, and he could’ve very easily been a “set-and-forget” option. He’s in the same tier as Fried and Cease in the Pitcher List rankings, and he’s pitched to a 2.65 ERA through his first three outings. Still, the matchups vs. the Mets and Braves are enough to drop him just a smidge into the “most likely” category for this week. Those are still two of the most dangerous offenses in baseball on paper, and Ryan doesn’t possess the elite strikeout stuff of most of the top pitchers in fantasy.
- Clarke Schmidt is getting ready to make his season debut. That could come as early as Tuesday next week vs. the Royals after pitching four scoreless innings in a rehab assignment on Thursday. Schmidt has unsurprisingly dominated in his two rehab outings, and he posted a 2.85 ERA with solid strikeout metrics at the big-league level last year. If he’s back in the Yankees’ rotation in time to make two starts this week, there’s no reason not to get him in your lineups.
- It has not been pretty for Tanner Houck to start the year, but he did manage to turn things around a bit in his last outing. He held the Blue Jays to just one run over 6.2 innings, though his two strikeouts in that start were disappointing. Still, he showed enough to be comfortably started in a pair of plus matchups vs. the Rays and White Sox.
- This week is going to represent a big step up in weight class for Ryan Pepiot. His first three starts have come against the Rockies, Pirates, and Angels, and while he hasn’t dominated, he has more or less lived up to the billing. This week, he has matchups scheduled vs. the Red Sox and Yankees. We’ll find out a lot more about whether or not he’s someone we can trust on an every-start basis moving forward.
- Seth Lugo was a massive success for the Royals last season, pitching to a 3.00 ERA across more than 200 innings of work. He’s picked up basically right where he left off, posting a 3.24 ERA through his first three starts of 2025. Some of his underlying metrics are a bit concerning, but he still checks in at No. 42 overall in the Pitcher List rankings. The matchup to start the week vs. the Yankees isn’t ideal, but the matchup to close the week vs. the Tigers is definitely good enough to keep him in your lineups in weekly leagues.
- Jeffrey Springs should be happy to be escaping his small home ballpark. He was brilliant in his only road start this season, and he’ll draw two exploitable matchups vs. the Brewers and White Sox. His overall numbers this season don’t jump off the page, but he warrants a spot in your rotation for this week.
- Luis Castillo has pitched to a 2.12 ERA through his first 17 innings this season, but his underlying metrics aren’t ideal. His xERA checks in at 4.24, while his 14.6% barrel rate puts him in the 13th percentile. He’s thrived due to a .239 BABIP and a 95.0% strand rate, so there could be some regression looming. His matchups in Cincinnati and Toronto are also daunting enough to keep him from the “set-and-forget” tier.
- There’s still a chance that Tylor Megill is available in your fantasy leagues. He’s available in roughly 50% of Yahoo leagues and an even higher percentage on ESPN, and that simply shouldn’t be the case. He’s pitched to a 0.63 ERA through his first three outings while boasting some of the best stuff in baseball: His 117 Stuff+ is tied with Skubal and trails only Hunter Greene among qualified starters. He’s seen one of the biggest jumps in the Pitcher List rankings to start the year, and his two matchups are good enough to make him our “Streamer of the Week.”
- Sonny Gray fits a similar mold to Castillo this week. He was likely drafted as a top-flight starter, but his results to start the year have been middling. His upcoming matchups are also tough, but there’s no reason to panic quite yet.
Questionable
- This is the largest tier this week, featuring a bunch of pitchers who can be used for at least one start. Charlie Morton draws two decent matchups, but it’s unclear how much gas he has left in the tank at 41 years old. His early-season results have been dreadful, so there’s plenty of risk here. However, he also still has decent strikeout stuff, so there’s some upside as well.
- Zack Littell had a great first start to the year, but he’s come crashing back to reality in his past two. He’s surrendered 12 earned runs to the Rangers and Angels, and now he draws matchups vs. the Red Sox and Yankees. He’s been a bit unlucky—his 4.54 xERA is two full runs better than his actual mark—but his spot in this tier is based primarily on his preseason evaluation. He retains a spot in the Pitcher List Top 100 for the time being, but there’s plenty of risk based on what we’ve seen from him recently.
- Unlike Littell and Morton, Easton Lucas has had phenomenal results to start the year. He’s yet to allow a run in two outings and boasts a 1.84 xERA, so he seems like a solid option on paper. Unfortunately, his pitch modeling metrics suggest his success won’t last forever. He’s a risky option vs. the Braves, though he can potentially be deployed vs. the Mariners.
- Michael Wacha is the definition of a Toby. He’s here to eat innings, and he’s done plenty of that the past two seasons. His results this season haven’t been as good as they’ve been the past two, but he can certainly be used against the Tigers in his second outing.
- Yusei Kikuchi was quietly impressive in 2024, racking up more than 200 strikeouts in 175.2 innings. Unfortunately, he hasn’t had the same impact in that department this season. His strikeout rate is down to 21.6%, and while that could certainly rebound, it doesn’t give him the same upside he had last year.
- Grant Holmes was supposed to have plenty of win opportunities for the Braves, but it’s tough for a starter to get wins when their team is just 3-10 to start the year. Holmes hasn’t exactly held up his end of the equation either, pitching to a 6.03 xERA. The Braves and Holmes will probably rebound, but it’s tough to get too excited about him vs. either the Blue Jays or the Twins.
- Max Meyer is probably the best pitcher in this tier. He’s seen a big bump to his ranking to start the year, pitching to a 2.00 ERA with 19 strikeouts through his first three starts. The only issue is that he’ll draw two brutal matchups this week vs. the Diamondbacks and Phillies. There are also some concerning metrics under the hood—especially a hard-hit rate that ranks in the 10th percentile—dropping him to the “questionable” tier for this week. If he pitches well again, we can continue to upgrade his ranking.
- The Clay Holmes experiment has had mixed results for the Mets to start the year. The strikeouts have been good (12.27 K/9), but the walks have been bad (5.52 BB/9). His ERA in his last outing was his worst of the season, but he was significantly unlucky in that contest. He had a FIP under 1.00, so there are still reasons for optimism with Holmes moving forward. His matchups this week aren’t ideal, but with some better luck—he has a .410 BABIP this season—he can still be the pitcher the Mets were hoping for this offseason.
- Taijuan Walker is not a particularly good pitcher at this point in his career, and his time in the Phillies’ rotation should be coming to an end once Ranger Suárez is healthy. That said, matchups against the Giants and Marlins at least keep him on the radar for the time being.
- Nick Lodolo is another starter who has the talent to pitch his way out of this tier in the future. He’s done an excellent job of preventing runs to start the year, but the big question is, what has happened to the strikeouts? That was the biggest part of his game in years past, yet he’s managed just an 11.3% strikeout rate through his first three starts. Until the strikeouts return, it’s tough to consider him anything more than a “questionable” option.
- Tyler Alexander is a questionable talent, and he’s posted a 5.17 xERA so far this season. However, his actual ERA is under 3.00, and he gets arguably the best schedule of the entire week: at home vs. the Tigers and Athletics. There’s always risk when targeting mediocre pitchers, but there’s a chance he continues to outpitch his peripherals.
- The Yankees roughed up Merrill Kelly in his last outing, but things should go significantly better against the Marlins. That said, using him against the Cubs is a different story.
- Landen Roupp and Justin Verlander are both tentatively scheduled for two starts for the Giants. Neither pitcher looks particularly strong on paper, but both pitchers have some upside in their second start vs. the Angels.
Avoid
- There’s nothing to get excited about here: no exciting prospects, no elite matchups, minimal win upside. Maybe you can find a start for one or two of these guys if you’re desperate, but you’d have to squint really hard to find it. You’re best off just avoiding this tier entirely, with the risk far outweighing the upside.
