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For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:
- This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
- Before the notes and rankings, an injury table outlines where players would be relatively ranked if they were fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
- If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week.
- Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. The HIPSTER players are likely going to underperform those labeled as a Toby across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase ceiling vs. floor in many cases. Pick the one that you need most in your situation, of course.
- I’ve made a decision to limit labels to just two labels per player, with few exceptions for a second. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
- The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.
Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots. Injuries are so strange and instead of shoving them at random moments on The List, I’ve elected to throw all of them into one table here for you, the wise fantasy manager, to determine if it’s worthwhile to take the injury discount and when.
I made a decision last year: I removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.
Please understand that “70-80” does not guarantee the player will be exactly in that range when they return. Rankings are 100% relative to the landscape and while this table reflects where they would sit in a vacuum, it’s a fluid creature. Sometimes there are oh-so-many options, sometimes I want to see them healthy and stretched out again, and others we’re starving for pitchers and they jump higher than “70-80”. It’s a loose reference point and why it’s called “relative ranking.” It’s difficult to update this week-to-week and I apologize if the ranking is different when the player actually returns from the IL. I hope it helps!
One last point about that – pitchers often need an extra week or two to ramp up once they do return to the majors. It’s why Still ILL exists and the “relative rank” you see is when those guys have shaken off their rust. Will they be back to normal in their first start or will they need a few? I have no idea! Those ranks are to show what I’d expect once they are fully back to normal.
I added something new to The List last season. It’s a small table of the prospects I’m personally excited about who would jump up The List quickly if they were confirmed in the rotation. Please don’t read too much into these, there are far better prospect analysts out there than me, and this rank will likely conflict with our weekly SP To Stash article from John Villavicencio, though we will be conferring each week. Still, I think this table will help you quickly stay on top of who should be on your radar.
They are ordered by my general preference/focus on those guys right now. If any of these are called up, they should be added to your 12-teamers as spec adds at the very least. Some guys aren’t here and that’s due to my own belief they aren’t as pressing as the ones below. I could be very wrong there.
Colors: Green = Worthy of a stash right now in 12-teamers.
As I do my rankings, I thought it would be helpful to showcase a table of how we’re ranking offenses, granted by our PLV powered Projections (in alphabetical order by tier):
I’m sure it’ll change through the year + there are differences to be made about teams vs. LHP or RHP, but it works as a general table that y’all should keep in mind.
Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, as each week’s update will reflect the comments and findings from those daily articles. If you’re unfamiliar with some of the players listed, I highly recommend reading my 75,000+ word Top 400 Starting Pitchers from February. Many things will have changed, but the root of my perception of these players is outlined there.
Let’s get to it.
Ranking Notes
- This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
- Seriously. Read the notes.
- I know there are going to be a ton of comments about I hate how much these rankings change each week and I’m going to get out ahead of them here.
- These rankings mostly change in the back half of The List as that’s your waiver wire. Those aren’t the players you hold onto throughout the year like your SPs 1-4, which means we’re going to be a bit more chaotic and roll with the waves more aggressively. If I see elements that suggest a pitcher could be a Top 40 arm, I’m going to move up a ton from the 80s to the 60s. Shazam, there we go.
As is tradition, I need to tell you about the guys who were removed and added from the Top ~60, so you have context for the ranking shifts.
- Added: None
- Removed: Blake Snell (15), Jack Leiter (62), Reynaldo López (63)
- Net Change Inside Top 60: (+1)
Please understand how this affects movement across The List.
Tier 1 – The True Aces
These pitchers are dope and make us feel dope.
1. Tarik Skubal – The safest combo of volume, ratios, Wins, and strikeouts. You can chase Skenes if you must, Skubal is safer. But his first two weeks have been terrible! But he’s been unlucky and returned a ton of whiffs and CSW? Let’s not spotlight two outings before the second week of April.
2. Garrett Crochet – I adore Crochet’s four-seamer/cutter foundation and see it as the strongest pair to demand success out there. His health question is less of a concern to me after the White Sox did the very best thing to ensure health in 2025. He’s so good.
3. Paul Skenes – I get the love. He also surprises batters with horizontal run, not vertical rise, which lowers his four-seamer strikeout rate. In fact, our PLV projections have Skenes with a sub 30% strikeout rate because of it. I totally get it.
4. Zack Wheeler – He’s Wheeler. You’re going to get a stud for the year even if it isn’t the 30% strikeout rate of others.
5. Jacob deGrom – deGrom is at 97 mph and had himself a worse second start, though 3 ER all came in the sixth frame. Yes, more hits and fewer strikeouts, even at 97 mph. He’s fine.
6. Cole Ragans – He was better in the second one and even without the change, slider, cutter working as well as we’ve seen in the past, I’m not going to change this ranking just yet. TOO EARLY.
7. Logan Gilbert – I feel weird about this one. To the best of my knowledge, the Mariners haven’t changed T-Mobile Park (The Tea), which opens the door for another season of good performance simply based on the 25%+ boost in strikeouts at home. His elite extension makes his slider the best in the majors, but his overall command has always made me a little cautious. The four-seamer overperformed massively last year (.170 BABIP to RHB from .300+?!) and I think we’ll see him return to his 2023 self instead of maintaining this plateau. I’m leaving him here given the chance he does repeat or even improve.
Tier 2 – AGA With Something To Prove
They have the AGA tag, though they all have a quirk that could mean they lose it by May.
8. Max Fried – Aces gonna ace. He was better in the second one, even if the changeup isn’t quite there yet.
9. Tyler Glasnow – He was rough against Philly, but the rain likely caused the velocity drop and his horrid strike rate.
10. Dylan Cease – What good is a changeup to LHB if it isn’t used when it would be helpful? Whatever, the strikeouts will flow n all.
11. Michael King – The second outing is why we didn’t touch King last week. The King got his Cole.
12. Joe Ryan – Ryan is a little unnerving at the moment with a slight drop in velocity and reluctance to use his secondaries. He could see a drop moving forward if it sticks, I’m currently seeing it as early season rust.
13. Chris Sale – Velocity was down and came back up across the start. Cool to see the changeup cruising.
14. Yoshinobu Yamamoto – He’s using more of his secondaries and I love to see it. I’ll never stop yelling about his highly questionable four-seamer location that counteracts his stellar attack angle.
Tier 3 – We Expect Success Every Night
They have to earn the AGA tag but are just a few starts away from it.
15. Spencer Schwellenbach – He feels like an ace, doesn’t he? Super interesting to see him go four-seamer heavy over cutters, but it was cooking against the Marlins. Why fix what wasn’t broken? He’ll get AGA after two more dope starts…maybe one.
16. Hunter Greene – Greene has been filthy with a harder heater and sliders returning strikes more than ever. It’s AWESOME.
17. Corbin Burnes – Burnes. I’m sorry man. Your cutter doesn’t have the drop from September and despite still being a clear hold, he’s not an AGA. You know it to be true.
18. Tanner Bibee – Bibee was recovering from sickness in his first outing and four HRs deterred his second. Let’s give him a pass.
19. Shota Imanaga – IM AN AGA. Almost. He’s getting there again, especially if the four-seamer can continue to return ten whiffs a game.
20. Logan Webb – Webb isn’t throwing as many changeups but the whole package is looking solid.
21. Pablo López – López isn’t quite there with his command across all his offerings. The four-seamer leaks out over the plate a fair amount and I’m still waiting for him to truly overwhelm once again.
22. Justin Steele – The command hasn’t been as sharp and I’m not worried for the future. It’ll click, it’s early.
23. Robbie Ray – Ray’s changeup hasn’t been as much of a factor and his heater has had to do all the heavy lifting last time out with his slider and curve leaving him…and he still produced.
24. Framber Valdez – He’s fine…? It’s Valdez. Enjoy if you can.
25. Sandy Alcantara – Sandy had lower velocity in his last outing and it’s a little scary. That said, as long as he’s starting (Paternity leave at the moment, which may actually help him get some extra rest he needs), I see him away from the next tier.
Tier 4 – So Dang Close To Greatness
I trust all these pitchers to produce this season while they also carry the ability to be more than an SP #3.
26. Bryan Woo – Woo is the same guy from last year – Fastballs focus while still working on his secondaries. He’s healthy = we’re happy.
27. Bryce Miller – Miller has been a little strange out of the gate and he’s like Woo in experimenting with the arsenal. I trust Woo’s package a touch better, but if you’re concerned about injuries, then Miller gets the nod.
28. Ryan Pepiot – It wasn’t a great one last time out, though Pepiot’s overall should favor the ceiling more than the floor.
29. Freddy Peralta – Peralta has only had a few moments of Professor Chaos and that’s awesome.
30. Jack Flaherty – Flaherty has acted the same as last season – breakers helping mask a hittable four-seamer.
Tier 4.5 – The Pitcher List Hall Of Famers
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Tier 5 – Same But Different
These are also Holly types, but they aren’t as exciting as the ones above. You should be fine with them, there’s just a little more risk.
31. Luis Castillo – I’m still a bit scared of Castillo (the DAWG version) without stuff that overpowers like he used to. A productive Holly without the ceiling.
32. Aaron Nola – The velocity is down 1-2 ticks and I’m expecting it to come back up, but I can’t help but feel like I’m lowering Nola a bit as the season goes on.
33. Carlos Rodón – He’s starting right now against the Tigers and I didn’t take that into account (it’s the first inning). His changeup was worse in his last outing and we should expect that to be good to go moving forward. Fastball and slider/curve are looking great.
34. Kodai Senga – Senga’s wider arsenal has me excited, even if his velocity is a little down from before. A more varied Senga = fewer hits off the fastball & more surprise whiffs on the splitter.
35. Drew Rasmussen – He looks SO GOOD. Yes, he’s only at five frames now, but he’ll be stretched out by May to a full six. Rasmussen’s cutter and fastball combo are so hard to hit + a legit pair of breaking balls are in the mix.
36. Cristopher Sánchez – His velocity is still up at 96 mph and even though the cutter isn’t there, the slider was much better in his last start against the Dodgers. If that becomes a true third pitch, then we’re golden.
37. Sonny Gray – Gray’s velocity came back to normal and the sweeper is looking solid. All cool.
38. Hunter Brown – Brown was around 96 mph last year and was suddenly 97/98 mph in his last start. Despite everything I say, if Brown is at 98 mph, that obviously changes things.
39. Zac Gallen – Gallen dominated the Yankees with 13 strikeouts via stupid good curveballs and his slider/cutter/change helping a bit more than usual. I’m still a little worried about the fastball, but who cares, that’s an ace outing. You roll with this. Duh.
40. Bailey Ober – Ober was recovering from a terrible illness and then had an inefficient 4 IP outing. Let the man get settled in.
Tier 6 – Why Do I Feel So Scared?
This is the toughest tier to rank and will likely be filled with landmines. Which will turn into the stud you dreamed of and which will be the bust?
41. Nathan Eovaldi – Eovaldi’s curveball is suddenly incredible for Eovaldi and it’s hard to deny how good he’s been. We’ve seen this run before and you have to run with it.
42. Seth Lugo – Lugo is a sturdy Holly but not quite at the strikeout arm of those of Tier 5. You’re not dropping Lugo.
43. Shane Baz – Baz was so good in his first start, throwing hard and showcasing the elite curve he had last season.
44. Gavin Williams – The cutter isn’t here but the fastball velocity is back at the very least. He’ll grow into this – Gavin hasn’t had a clean start to the season for a while.
45. Kris Bubic – Bubic’s four-seamer is hard to hit + we saw the sliders and changeup work their magic against the Orioles. There will be some command bumps in the road, but the overall foundation is there. I’m so in.
46. Dustin May – May should be up to six innings soon and I imagine he’ll work on the four-seamer and cutter more to become consistent against LHB as well. The situation with the Dodgers is also incredibly valuable.
47. Nick Lodolo – Lodolo’s changeup was excellent to RHB and even without the strikeouts, I imagine they’ll come as he finally has a long runway of health. The curve will be better.
48. Max Meyer – We’ve seen a better version of Meyer thus far with harder fastballs and improved slider. The change and sweeper need a little polish to turn him into a proper stud, but the floor is relatively high. Stupid Marlins and their poor offense.
49. Reese Olson – Olson’s slider and changeup should be a good one-two punch and I hope the sinker approach leans more inside to RHB in the future. He’s borderline Holly.
50. Jordan Hicks – Hicks’ 97/98 mph sinker and sweeper are earning strikes and that’s all we need. What about the splitter. He’s barely faced LHB, it’ll come. Sometimes.
51. Nick Pivetta – I wrested with this one. Pivetta isn’t much different from previous years, which puts his ceiling lower than the rest of the crew (he’s never had a sub 4.00 ERA). Still, strikeout volume and Wins will be there + a hefty number of strikeouts.
52. Jeffrey Springs – Springs usually has sunshine and rainbows for his starts, save for the opening night in Sacremento. We can understand that one as a fluke.
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Tier 7 – At The Edge Of The Cliff
Now that we’re past the “hey, this is legit value I’m unlikely to drop this season”, it’s time to shift to pure upside. It’s why these rankings are more aggressive than projections or likely other rankings you’ve seen elsewhere. It’s a 12-teamer and you should be embracing the burn-and-churn of your starting pitchers.
53. Jesús Luzardo – Many of y’all wanted me to raise Luzardo last week, WELL HERE WE ARE. Maybe you wanted more after the sweeper returned for a second start, especially after facing a dominant Dodgers lineup, though two starts with a great K/BB are not convincing enough. Luzardo has always had these starts across the year, spliced with horrific disasters that destroy your ERA and WHIP. It’s too early to say that the sweeper has completely changed that.
54. Roki Sasaki – I’m tempted to lower him even further. Sasaki’s volume is in question + the approach is still just four-seamer/splitter and that doesn’t make for a consistent arm. However, he’ll even stretch out enough to return a fair number of glorious six inning outings (10 K outing when?) and the Win chance will be much higher at that point. He’s a true HIPSTER, though. Good luck.
55. Tylor Megill – Megill is looking like TYLORD with his new slider that he can keep down + a four-seamer upstairs + sinker inside the strikezone. The question remains – can he keep it going? Command hasn’t been his strong suit, after all. Might as well add now and hope.
56. Spencer Arrighetti – The control hasn’t been there. He has a wide arsenal, but if none of them are competitive, what’s the point? The Pasta Pirate should get better in time, but I can’t get last year’s original performances out of my head. Maybe he needs more time than others to find his rhythm?
57. Grant Holmes – He’s been so unlucky with his matchups. The rain pushed his Miami start to a date with the Phillies this week and we’ve only seen one start of The Real Estate Broker thus far. With many others planting their abilities clearly in the sand, I have to lower Holmes a touch. There’s slightly more haze here, even if I believe the curve and slider are better than what we saw against the Dodgers.
58. Landen Roupp – Roupp had himself an electric opening to his 2025 season by striking out the side in Houston. He was a bit erratic after and didn’t flex a deep arsenal, but I’m expecting that to open up in time. He should keep this rotation spot and be allowed to form into a strong starter over time, though there’s still plenty of uncertainty.
59. MacKenzie Gore – Oh Gore. You looked brilliant in your first outing, then the four-seamer wasn’t spotted and curve/slider/change were terrible at taking down RHB. It’s almost like you’re a HIPSTER and we only had a glimpse of your peak on opening day. Sigh. PROVE ME WRONG. I apologize for being so aggressive last week.
60. Taj Bradley – The cutter command was worse the second time around and we should just accept him as a HIPSTER and call it a day.
61. Yusei Kikuchi – Kikuchi’s four-seamer is worse, the slider is fine, and I don’t have confidence in the Angels to help fix him as the season progresses.
62. Clay Holmes – The Adobe has shown his inefficient nature and I cannot say it’ll go away in time. I hope it’s a product of getting comfortable a starter over a reliever.
63. Bowden Francis – I don’t quite believe all of it, but the four-seamer is still overperforming with its 18″ of vert and sometimes I need to throw my hands in the air and accept it. For now.
64. Jackson Jobe – Jobe needs more time. I think there is a legit starter in here, but when will that come to fruition? The good news: He hasn’t had any massive blowups despite being far from his peak. Hopefully he builds into his promise and avoids those massive dips.
Tier 8 – The Tobys Who Could Be More
These are potential Holly arms and I find myself shrugging and drafting most of them when I don’t have enough of a floor on my pitching staff.
65. Brandon Pfaadt – I’m finally interested in Pfaadt? He’s throwing changeups and curves that actually work to LHB and they could be the answer. Super small sample but I’m down to take a chance on this. FINALLY.
66. José Soriano – The sinker velocity is there and the slider is suddenly working against RHB as he saves the curve for LHB. There’s excitement there that I hope catches on.
67. Chris Bassitt – He’s looking like the Bassitt of old. Finally. Totally possible it falls back down, but he has a better track record than the others outside of that 2024 season we don’t want to talk about.
68. Nick Martinez – Martinez got hit around a little last time out, but the skills are still solid as a potential Holly.
69. Brady Singer – Sooooo, are you done with the whole “Four-seamers and sinkers and changeups and cutters” thing? Because that was a cool group surrounding your slider. Please bring that back.
70. Matthew Boyd – Boyd is sneaky good. The HR rate should be lower in Wrigley and he has 25% strikeout potential with QS along the way. The changeup was better in his second outing, too.
71. Richard Fitts – We still haven’t see Fitts go a second start and maybe this is too low of a rank given how I wanted to see more data after the first one. I was expecting to make a quicker decision on Fitts and now that we’re still waiting, I’d rather just get something else that helps in the meantime. Hopefully the four-seamer is much better than what we saw last time out.
72. Michael Wacha – He still sports a legit changeup and now his four-seamer gets 19″ of vert. That’s awesome.
73. Merrill Kelly – Kelly got destroyed by the Yankees. Okay. You don’t start him for that. He has a great offense behind him and should command decently well.
74. Zach Eflin – Eflin is fine. Ish.
75. David Peterson – He left his last game with nausea and blurred vision and we shouldn’t judge him for what we’ve seen thus far. I see Peterson as a solid quality start guy who could move up the ranks more if he continues to produce like his run last year.
76. Justin Verlander – Verlander’s velocity is solid and it’s a good team context with the Giants at his back. Nothing special, just fine.
Tier 9 – The Desperate Dart Throws
I’m skeptical of all these arms, but some legitimate elements of each could blossom early in the year.
77. Andrew Abbott – He’s returning! And I have low expectations and likely lower him next week, but at least it’s against a weak team. Let’s see what we get (and likely favor those below instead).
78. Eduardo Rodriguez – Twelve strikeouts is awfully cool, but you really shouldn’t expect anything close to that moving forward.
79. Kevin Gausman – The splitter isn’t missing bats. There is no strong #3 pitch. This doesn’t look pretty, y’all.
80. Hayden Wesneski – At least he has decent matchups + a good situation + near seven feet of extension. The possibility is there, I just wish I liked his arsenal more.
81. Justin Wrobleski – The Dodgers are likely starting Wrobleski this week and that could be a cheap Win or two as Snell recovers.
82. Casey Mize – Mize is facing the Yankees right now and I didn’t take it into account. His previous outing came with depressed velocity and given that it’s snowing there today, I wouldn’t be surprised if the data didn’t paint a favorable picture.
83. Tanner Houck – He’s not the guy you remember. The slider has far less break and you can’t trust him. But maybe he wakes up next start?
84. Ronel Blanco – Same with Blanco. He’s not in rhythm now, but it’s possible he is next time out.
85. Kumar Rocker – Rocker is a different arm now, featuring sinkers over four-seamers and it’s super strange. One strikeout in his last outing and I’m just sitting here wondering what we can possibly expect each time he pitches.
Tier 10 – Fine, You Need Some Innings
These guys are a step down from the Tobys in Tier 10 but sure, I get why they’re rostered.
86. Mitch Keller – There’s not enough in the tank here.
87. Erick Fedde – He gets the Pirates this week. Sure, that’s fine. He’s axed the four-seamer and that could spell a Spider-Man type season again.
88. Luis Severino – It’s a pair of fastballs + a sweeper and rare cutter. The long leash and surprise strikeouts at times makes him a borderline Toby.
89. José Berríos – The Great Undulator. Y’all know I hate relying on this.
90. Andrew Heaney – He just returned double-digit strikeouts against the Yankees with pristine command. Maybe there’s a Vargas Rule brewing?
91. Martín Pérez – This could also be a Vargas Rule after his no-hit bid and a productive start on Sunday.
92. Jameson Taillon – Taillon will give you innings. Hopefully he’s adapted a more nibble-focused approach that is more reluctant to throw strikes and allow a high hit-per-nine.
93. Jack Kochanowicz – He’s so interesting. The sinker has friends this year with a four-seamer and slider that aren’t all that special, but somehow complement the sinker well. Few strikeouts are coming, but QS leagues may love this.
Tier 11 – Streamers and WannabeTobys
I like their matchups and they could be productive for a week before we let them go back to the wire.
94. Shane Smith – I like Smith…in about a month. He fatigued quickly against the Twins and I imagine he needs a lot of time to ramp into 85+ pitches of production. Super interesting with his absurd kick changeup, though.
95. Zack Littell – Sure, he can go Dancing With The Disco against the Angels.
96. Mitchell Parker – A date with Maimi could spell a solid six-inning stream.
97. Ben Lively – It’s two starts of the White Sox + Royals and Lively has made this work.
98. Will Warren – Warren should improve over time, but if it weren’t for the Giants this week, he’d stay off The List.
99. Matthew Liberatore – It’s the Pirates and Liberatore is allowed to go more than five.
100. Quinn Priester – Ayyyy the Brewers traded for Priester this morning! He’ll slide into the rotation where I expect a whole lot of struggles. But maybe not! I’m curious what happens.
Honorable Mentions
Here is every pitcher who is not on The List and currently has a rotation spot. If I’m missing someone, it’s likely because I removed them from The List last week and forgot to add them here, or I meant to add them to The List and I got crossed up somewhere. Let me know if I’m missing someone, please!
Joey Estes (ATH) – He beat Spence and holds a rotation spot because he can locate. Sadly, the stuff is located on the far left side of the scale. Ayyyy.
JP Sears (ATH) – Sears is too much of question mark on a given night and I’d avoid him against the Mets. Feel free to circle him for the White Sox next week, though.
Mitch Spence (ATH) – They put him in the bullpen. I. KNOW.
Osvaldo Bido (ATH) – He was one of the last ones out this week and he’s too volatile without enough upside. We’ll be back for the White Sox next Wednesday.
AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) – It’s just a splitter and poor command on everything else. We can see how it could work in the future, just not right now.
Bryce Elder (ATL) – I guess he’s getting starts, but hot dang is it not fun.
Cade Povich (BAL) – I don’t see a high enough ceiling to chase him in drafts, even for the first week. He can turn into a 12-teamer Toby, but for now, I’d rather take a better first matchup and go from there.
Charlie Morton (BAL) – He’s not a streamer I want to rely on.
Dean Kremer (BAL) – He’s flexed strikeouts at times and then it disappears randomly. Far too risky.
Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL) – I’m not seeing enough from Sugano thus far to trust he can be the Toby we want him to be.
Kyle Gibson (BAL) – He’ll show up around the end of April once stretched out. Not that you’ll want to roster him when that time comes, of course.
Hunter Dobbins (BOS) – He made his debut for a double-header and gave me little to point at and say “hey! That’s a guy I want on my fantasy squads.”
Sean Newcomb (BOS) – Wow, he actually did it. No, not even in a good matchup do I want to chase this.
Walker Buehler (BOS) – He’s so dang lost and you shouldn’t be holding on. Sure, he could return in form, but what’s the ceiling if he does?
Jonathan Cannon (CWS) – This has moments of being cool and then failing to locate the very next inning.
Davis Martin (CWS) – The kick change! It’s a thing! And not as elite as the name makes it sound!
Sean Burke (CWS) – His fastball velocity is down and the breakers aren’t earning whiffs. He could be back on The List soon, but Smith is the more intriguing one at the moment.
Luis L. Ortiz (CLE) – Ortiz hasn’t put it all together yet.
Logan Allen (CLE) – You made the rotation?! Really?! I don’t care if you face the White Sox. Sorry.
Ben Brown (CHC) – Without a third pitch, I don’t see this working out.
Rhett Lowder (CIN) – Hurt and we’ll take a look when he returns.
Carson Spiers (CIN) – Maybe Spiers can dot the edges against the Rangers next week? It’s super boring and at home. No thanks.
Germán Márquez (COL) – COL
Ryan Feltner (COL) – Story
Kyle Freeland (COL) – Broooo
Antonio Senzatela (COL) – oooooo
Bradley Blalock (COL) – ahhhhh. COL Story, broaaah? You get the point.
Chase Dollander (COL) – No, I didn’t want to add Dollander. It’s Coors + the Shag Rug and he’s not as filthy as you think. The velocity is there for a rare peak moment, but the fastball isn’t as electric as other young arms and the secondaries are still in development.
Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU) – Hurt and we’ll see how he looks when he returns.
Michael Lorenzen (KCR) – Oh right, Lorenzen. You’re making a Grave Mistake without the ratios you want on most nights.
Kyle Hendricks (LAA) – He’s not the worst AL-Only streamer. At least he’s able to go six.
Tyler Anderson (LAA) – He’s a decent streamer when the matchups are there.
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – I don’t have Kershaw in the IL table because I personally don’t see a case where you’re dropping someone to activate Kershaw in his first (or second) start back from the IL in 12-teamers. He’s not that guy anymore, y’all.
Landon Knack (LAD) – He could enter the rotation this week and I have little interest. The ceiling is low with four-seamer/slider and it’s just for a cheap Win chance.
Tony Gonsolin (LAD) – I guess he’s a better injury stash than Kershaw, but the same rule applies.
Cal Quantrill (MIA) – He’s getting the second game of the year for the Marlins. Yup. It’s possible the splitter is cooking…?
Connor Gillispie (MIA) – You know, he’s not the worst but far too unrefined.
Edward Cabrera (MIA) – Hurt and we’ll see how he looks when he returns.
Valente Bellozo (MIA) – He sits around 90 mph and has a cutter he has to earn called strikes with. That’s about it.
Chad Patrick (MIL) – You don’t even know who he is.
Aaron Ashby (MIL) – Hurt and we’ll take a look when he returns.
Aaron Civale (MIL) – Hurt and we’ll take a look when he returns.
DL Hall (MIL) – Hurt and we’ll take a look when he returns.
Elvin Rodríguez (MIL) – He has glimpses of being great. Glimpses.
Jose Quintana (MIL) – He’s likely to return this week and I’m not expecting much at all.
Tyler Alexander (MIL) – T-Lex was throwing no-hit ball! That’s awesome and it’s in the past.
Chris Paddack (MIN) – You thought it was a great two-step, didn’t you? Yeesh.
Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) – It’s not a bad pair of outings ahead, though I see it as a low ceiling play where there are others who can turn in a better return and have potential for more.
Griffin Canning (NYM) – I don’t see anything new this year that says “Hey, he won’t be the third-worst qualified ERA starter in the bigs for the second year in a row.”
Marcus Stroman (NYY) – He got his wish and it’s been just as poor as we expected.
Carlos Carrasco (NYY) – Cookie showed he can go five frames of 3 ER or less. That could be a Win!
Taijuan Walker (PHI) – Suárez is out for a few starts with a barking back. The Phillies have nothing but Walker to find some innings. Good luck.
Bailey Falter (PIT) – The ceiling isn’t worth the jump. Until he’s on the Rays. ONE DAY.
Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) – Wait, seriously?! After all of that, it’s Mldozinski?! UGH.
Emerson Hancock (SEA) – The Mariners went with Mr. Eff instead and that’s probably for the best.
Luis F. Castillo (SEA) – He’s not enough, sadly. Make sure you do everything to not confuse him with Luis DAWG Castillo.
Andre Pallante (STL) – The velocity is better, the stuff is…eh. I’d rather not.
Miles Mikolas (STL) – His four-seamer was one of the worst pitches in baseball last year and is now two ticks slower.
Kyle Hart (SDP) – He’s not stretched out in full and I want to see him dominate with both sweepers and changeups before I can trust him to be a reliable Win-focused “TOBY”
Randy Vásquez (SDP) – I don’t dig his overall approach. There’s nothing to speaks to production in 12-teamers.
Hayden Birdsong (SFG) – Birdsong will be pitching out of the bullpen and is dealing with a fingernail issue that he’s fixed with a fake nail. ANYWAY, it’s Roupp and you shouldn’t hold onto Birdsong.
Patrick Corbin (TEX) – Looks like Corbin is starting this week despite not being fully ramped up. As if that changes things.
Tyler Mahle (TEX) – The ceiling isn’t high enough to justify holding and starting him against the Cubs.
Easton Lucas (TOR) – He was a late scratch on Monday and wasn’t carrying an arsenal worthy of your attention in the first place.
Brad Lord (WSN) – WHO?!.GIF. He’s in for Soroka and expect nothing.
Jake Irvin (WSN) – Hey, this isn’t the worst thing ever if his curve is doing work. We saw it last year, after all.
Trevor Williams (WSN) – #NeverTrevor
Michael Soroka (WSN) – He’s on the IL and not worth being in the top table. Womp womp.
SCROLL BACK UP AND READ THE NOTES
| Rank | Pitcher | Badges | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarik SkubalT1 | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | - |
| 2 | Garrett Crochet | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 3 | Paul Skenes | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 4 | Zack Wheeler | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | - |
| 5 | Jacob deGrom | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 6 | Cole Ragans | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 7 | Logan Gilbert | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 8 | Max FriedT2 | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | +1 |
| 9 | Tyler Glasnow | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +1 |
| 10 | Dylan Cease | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 11 | Michael King | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | +1 |
| 12 | Joe Ryan | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 13 | Chris Sale | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +1 |
| 14 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | +2 |
| 15 | Spencer SchwellenbachT3 | Ace Potential Wins Bonus | +2 |
| 16 | Hunter Greene | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +10 |
| 17 | Corbin Burnes | Ace Potential Quality Starts | -9 |
| 18 | Tanner Bibee | Ace Potential Quality Starts | +1 |
| 19 | Shota Imanaga | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 20 | Logan Webb | Ace Potential Quality Starts | +3 |
| 21 | Pablo López | Ace Potential Quality Starts | -3 |
| 22 | Justin Steele | Ace Potential Quality Starts | -1 |
| 23 | Robbie Ray | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | -1 |
| 24 | Framber Valdez | Ace Potential Quality Starts | +1 |
| 25 | Sandy Alcantara | Ace Potential Ratio Focused | +2 |
| 26 | Bryan WooT4 | Cherry Bomb Ratio Focused Injury Risk | +2 |
| 27 | Bryce Miller | Cherry Bomb Ratio Focused | -3 |
| 28 | Ryan Pepiot | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 29 | Freddy Peralta | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +5 |
| 30 | Jack Flaherty | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +2 |
| 31 | Luis CastilloT5 | Holly Quality Starts | -1 |
| 32 | Aaron Nola | Holly Quality Starts | -1 |
| 33 | Carlos Rodón | Holly Wins Bonus | - |
| 34 | Kodai Senga | Holly Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +2 |
| 35 | Drew Rasmussen | Holly Ratio Focused | +8 |
| 36 | Cristopher Sánchez | Holly Wins Bonus | +1 |
| 37 | Sonny Gray | Holly Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 38 | Hunter Brown | Holly Wins Bonus | +1 |
| 39 | Zac Gallen | Holly Quality Starts | +1 |
| 40 | Bailey Ober | Holly Quality Starts | -5 |
| 41 | Nathan EovaldiT6 | Holly Wins Bonus | +8 |
| 42 | Seth Lugo | Holly Quality Starts | -1 |
| 43 | Shane Baz | Holly Strikeout Upside | +16 |
| 44 | Gavin Williams | Holly Quality Starts Injury Risk | +1 |
| 45 | Kris Bubic | Holly Strikeout Upside | +11 |
| 46 | Dustin May | Holly Ratio Focused | +6 |
| 47 | Nick Lodolo | Holly Strikeout Upside | +4 |
| 48 | Max Meyer | Holly Strikeout Upside | +9 |
| 49 | Reese Olson | Holly Strikeout Upside | +5 |
| 50 | Jordan Hicks | Holly Ratio Focused | +18 |
| 51 | Nick Pivetta | Holly Strikeout Upside | +4 |
| 52 | Jeffrey Springs | Holly Quality Starts | -2 |
| 53 | Jesús LuzardoT7 | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +7 |
| 54 | Roki Sasaki | Hipster Strikeout Upside | -7 |
| 55 | Tylor Megill | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +12 |
| 56 | Spencer Arrighetti | Hipster Strikeout Upside | -8 |
| 57 | Grant Holmes | Hipster Wins Bonus | -11 |
| 58 | Landen Roupp | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +8 |
| 59 | MacKenzie Gore | Hipster Strikeout Upside | -15 |
| 60 | Taj Bradley | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 61 | Yusei Kikuchi | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +3 |
| 62 | Clay Holmes | Hipster Strikeout Upside | -9 |
| 63 | Bowden Francis | Hipster Streaming Option Rotation Spot Bonus | +22 |
| 64 | Jackson Jobe | Hipster Strikeout Upside | -22 |
| 65 | Brandon PfaadtT8 | Toby Quality Starts | +24 |
| 66 | José Soriano | Toby Quality Starts | +8 |
| 67 | Chris Bassitt | Toby Rotation Spot Bonus | +9 |
| 68 | Nick Martinez | Toby Ratio Focused | +4 |
| 69 | Brady Singer | Toby Quality Starts | +10 |
| 70 | Matthew Boyd | Toby Quality Starts | +3 |
| 71 | Richard Fitts | Toby Wins Bonus Ratio Focused | -13 |
| 72 | Michael Wacha | Toby Quality Starts | +15 |
| 73 | Merrill Kelly | Toby Quality Starts | +2 |
| 74 | Zach Eflin | Toby Wins Bonus | -4 |
| 75 | David Peterson | Toby Wins Bonus | -4 |
| 76 | Justin Verlander | Toby Quality Starts | +2 |
| 77 | Andrew AbbottT9 | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 78 | Eduardo Rodriguez | Hipster Quality Starts | +20 |
| 79 | Kevin Gausman | Hipster Quality Starts | -10 |
| 80 | Hayden Wesneski | Hipster Team Context Effect | +3 |
| 81 | Justin Wrobleski | Streaming Option Wins Bonus | +UR |
| 82 | Casey Mize | Hipster Quality Starts | -17 |
| 83 | Tanner Houck | Hipster Wins Bonus | +9 |
| 84 | Ronel Blanco | Hipster Wins Bonus | -7 |
| 85 | Kumar Rocker | Hipster Strikeout Upside | -3 |
| 86 | Mitch KellerT10 | Toby Quality Starts | +2 |
| 87 | Erick Fedde | Toby Quality Starts | +UR |
| 88 | Luis Severino | Toby Quality Starts | +2 |
| 89 | José Berríos | Toby Wins Bonus | +2 |
| 90 | Andrew Heaney | Vargas Rule Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 91 | Martín Pérez | Vargas Rule Ratio Focused | +UR |
| 92 | Jameson Taillon | Toby Quality Starts | +UR |
| 93 | Jack Kochanowicz | Toby Quality Starts | +UR |
| 94 | Shane SmithT11 | Streaming Option Strikeout Upside | -8 |
| 95 | Zack Littell | Streaming Option Rotation Spot Bonus | +UR |
| 96 | Mitchell Parker | Streaming Option Quality Starts | +UR |
| 97 | Ben Lively | Streaming Option Quality Starts | +UR |
| 98 | Will Warren | Streaming Option Wins Bonus | +UR |
| 99 | Matthew Liberatore | Streaming Option Rotation Spot Bonus | +UR |
| 100 | Quinn Priester | Streaming Option Rotation Spot Bonus Stash Option | +UR |
Labels Legend
Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
Great work as always Nick! Thanks!
Heads up the Tier numbers are messed up in the notes (Tier 7 is labeled Tier 9)
@ Nick – Gil’s problem is his latissimus dorsi, not his shoulder. There’s a much better chance of coming back full strength from a lat strain than a shoulder problem. Sure, the lats are huge, and tears can be brutal and take a while to recover, but it’s simply a strained muscle. There’s no structurally damaged joint involved… However, Gil reminds me a lot of early Severino, who also had lat problems. There might be some kind of carry-over from how they condition these power pitching guys and boost their velo under the Yankees player development program, maybe a focus on leveraging the massive lat musculature rather than using mostly the shoulder/arm and hips/stride to generate momentum.
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@ comment readers:
Dustin May’s only going to get to 6 regularly if he proves he can, he’s not going to pitch more than 100 innings for the season, and chuckin’ it for LA is a double-edged sword on fantasy squads. Look what happened to Buehler and Miller! Beyond that, look what happened to Snell when he told them he was a little sore after a bullpen. Immediate IL! From everything I’ve read, Snell was surprised himself at how quickly it happened. I don’t blame them, (they clearly aren’t very good at keeping pitchers both healthy and tuned up at the MLB level, and Snell has general early-season woes), and they’ll almost certainly repeat, but it’s horrible on fantasy squads.
It seems like they’re going to be embracing the Dodgeritis method of “protecting” pitchers quickly and furiously this season. Sure, you’ll regularly get wins when you roster guys on the low end of the totem pole, but there’s no way to depend on any of their rotation over a full season. Every single Dodgers pitcher requires a backup, and there’s no replacing the talent level you come to depend on, in a few cases, without demolishing the remainder of your roster. I only grab Dodgers pitchers when they’re a steal on draft day.
That being said, the upside is huge, and I’d be all over him in keepers.
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Pretty sure Nick’s still too high on Bassitt. He had a bunch of good outings last season too, but the lows were LOW. I held him until well after I thought I should season because of Nick’s unfailing optimism on his behalf last season, and he doesn’t look any different to me this year. He lost weeks for me at least 4 times before I swapped him out. (I’m pretty sure it was to a pitcher that Nick had suggested, and they continued to do well for me, so this is (mostly) particular to Bassitt.
I don’t say this to insult Nick, I say this to comment-readers, so they’re aware he didn’t really fade Bassitt until he already did most of the damage. If you take away anything from this comment, it’s, “If you roster Bassitt, don’t hold on too long after the wheels come off.”
He’s 36, plays in Toronto, and he’s been at it since 2014 (although the career innings are still pretty low for a 36 yo starter). I’m sure he’ll still be serviceable for about what he was last season, but I don’t expect much but volume and a better than average ERA, (which has been climbing steadily over the last couple of seasons). Expect status quo from the end of last season, or decline, IMO. I’d put him at the bottom of tier 8, or the top of 10.
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Martin Perez did this at times last season, too. He might be going on one of those Vargas Rule runs, but I ain’t touching it. He plays for the White Sox, sure, but when so many pitchers aren’t what they will be yet, I have a hard time streaming from the bottom of the barrel. He did help me win some weeks last year, so if you need a stream, he’s probably worth it for now. Just realize when the switch flips off, it usually stays that way for a while.
Nice comment!