Welcome to this week’s edition of the 2023 two-start pitcher rankings!
My rankings have four tiers: Set and Forget, Probably Start, Questionable, and Avoid. Set and Forget starters are simply that; get them in your lineup and don’t think twice. The Most Likely Start tier includes players with the mix of skill and matchups that make them almost certainly two-start plays, but not without some elevated risk compared to the top tier. Questionable starters are those best suited for daily lineup leagues where you can bench them against the tougher of their two opponents. Finally, we have the Avoid tier, which includes two-start SPs who should remain on your bench or the wire.
Each week, I’ll be selecting my Two-Start Streamer of the Week. The criteria for a streamer will be a rostership-rate under 50% in Yahoo or ESPN leagues. The Streamer of the Week will be highlighted in the tables in green. Reach out to me in the PL+ Discord or on Twitter @AnthonyTucker81 and let me know if you’d grade the weekly streamer as a win or loss.
As a friendly reminder, the projected starters are just that, projections and subject to change.
Set and Forget
- While most aces will take their first turn in the rotation post-ASB over the weekend, there is a strong collection of SP2s this upcoming week. Joe Musgrove and Logan Webb get the top billing as they’ve been locked in over the last month.
- There’s a bit more inconsistency than normal in Tier 1, but you won’t be second-guessing starting the likes of Aaron Nola, Chris Bassitt, or Sonny Gray.
Most Likely
- Jordan Montgomery left his last start with a hamstring injury, but he’s been given the all clear to start on Tuesday. He has a favorable upcoming slate as he looks to build upon a quietly excellent last six weeks. Since the calendar turned to June, Gumby has put up a 1.48 ERA, trailing only Blake Snell and Clayton Kershaw. Montgomery needs no motivation, but expect him to be on his A-game in what likely amounts to a pair of auditions for contending teams prior to the trade deadline.
- In his first two starts of the year, Tarik Skubal has looked like he could be a fantasy difference maker down the stretch. The Tigers will continue to manage his workload closely, but he should be rostered in all 12-team leagues. Even against a strong Padres lineup, he’s a start in weekly leagues given the upside potential at Kansas City.
Questionable
- Taj Bradley has hit a rookie wall with a number of poor performances derailed by poor command. One look at a 5.43 ERA and 1.39 WHIP go a long way in explaining why his roster rate has fallen below 50% in Yahoo leagues. Why, then, does Bradley get the nod as Two-Start Streamer of the Week? An elite fastball that brings strikeout potential in any start. For those willing to bear the ratio risk against a pair of the AL’s best lineups, Bradley brings a high strikeout floor matched by only a handful of other starting pitchers.
- Drew Smyly through Matt Manning are potential one-start streamers. Despite being part of Detroit’s combined no-hitter, there doesn’t appear to be much to see here with Manning. If you’re adding him, it’s more a bet against the Royals offense than anything.
Avoid
| Player | First Start | Second Start |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | @PHI | ATL |
| Dane Dunning | TBR | LAD |
| José Quintana | CHW | @BOS |
| Zach Davies | @ATL | @CIN |
| Luke Weaver | SFG | ARI |
| Brandon Williamson | SFG | ARI |
| Cole Irvin | LAD | @TBR |
| Bryan Hoeing | @STL | COL |
| Yonny Chirinos | @TEX | BAL |
| Daniel Lynch | DET | @NYY |
| Ryan Yarbrough | DET | @NYY |
| Luis Medina | BOS | HOU |
| Ken Waldichuk | BOS | HOU |
- Wade Miley continues to make a living keeping the ball on the ground. This season, he’s flashed some higher fastball velocity that makes him intriguing as a ratio-stabilizing arm on your roster. Don’t let a 3.06 ERA fool you though, Wiley is best to park on your bench next week against Philadelphia and Atlanta.
- All that was said about Miley also applies to Dane Dunning. Despite having the sixth best ERA in the majors, Dunning’s success appears far less sustainable given the amount of hard contact he allows and his reliance on called strikes. The Rays and Dodgers pack enough punch to send Dunning to a couple of early exits.
Two-Start Streamer of the Week Record: 3-5.