Welcome back to the 2025 two-start pitcher rankings!
Each week, I’ll break down all the projected two-start starters and group them into four tiers: Set and Forget, Probably Start, Questionable, and Avoid. Set-and-Forget starters are simply that; get them in your lineup and don’t think twice. The Most Likely tier includes players with a mix of skill and matchups that make them almost certainly two-start plays, but not without some elevated risk compared to the top tier. Questionable starters are those best suited for daily lineup leagues, where you can bench them against the tougher of their two opponents; they’re more situation-dependent in weekly leagues. Finally, we have the Avoid tier, which includes two-start pitchers who should remain on your bench or the wire.
I’ll also be highlighting one Two-Start Streamer of the Week. The criteria for a streamer will be a rostered rate under 50% in Yahoo and ESPN leagues. The Streamer of the Week will be highlighted in green in the tables.
Let’s dive in.
As a friendly reminder, the projected starters are just that, projections. They are subject to change.
Set-and-Forget
- There are a handful of top-flight starters tentatively scheduled for two starts next week, including Paul Skenes. He’s a clear-cut Tier One pitcher in the Pitcher List Rankings and should never be taken out of your lineup. The Brewers did rough him up a bit in his last outing, but he still owns an elite 2.13 ERA and 2.60 xERA for the year.
- There are also five different Tier Two starters expected to pitch twice: Joe Ryan, Hunter Brown, Logan Gilbert, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Robbie Ray. While these guys each have something that keeps them from being in the top tier, they’re still dominant pitchers who can be relied upon against any opponent.
- Finally, there are three Tier Three starters in this group: Carlos Rodón, Freddy Peralta, and Brandon Woodruff. Rodon is coming off an absolute gem in his last outing, allowing just one hit and one run across seven innings, while both Brewers’ starters have ERAs under 3.00 for the year with plenty of strikeout potential. The Brewers guys have a daunting upcoming schedule, but with the team continuing to win nearly every time they take the field, there’s no reason not to trust them.
Most Likely
- The pitchers in this tier aren’t quite as dominant on paper, but they’re still excellent options. Trevor Rogers has seemingly come back from the dead this season, pitching to a dominant 1.43 ERA across 11 outings. His 3.03 xERA isn’t quite as impressive, but he continues to turn in elite performances on a nightly basis. He’s allowed one earned run or fewer in six of his past seven outings, and the lone exception was a two-run performance vs. the Rays. He’s earned the benefit of the doubt.
- Gavin Williams nearly made a bit of history two starts ago, taking a no-hitter into the ninth inning vs. the Mets. He ultimately surrendered a solo homer to Juan Soto with one out, and he was removed from the game after 121 pitches. Throwing that much may have negatively impacted him for his next start, where he surrendered four runs across just three innings vs. the Marlins. Hopefully, he can get back on track with two quality matchups against the Diamondbacks and Rangers. The Rangers’ offense has been a disappointment all year, while Arizona’s looks less formidable after trading away Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor.
- This might be an aggressive ranking for Jacob Lopez, but he’s been absolute nails recently. He’s had four consecutive scoreless outings, and he’s added at least nine strikeouts in his past two. He’s also tentatively scheduled for two friendly matchups next week at the Twins and at the Mariners. The Twins have been a below-average offense against southpaws all season, while Seattle is the most pitcher-friendly venue in baseball (per Statcast Park Factors). Getting out of the small ballpark in Sacramento for two road starts is a big upgrade for Lopez, making him the choice for Streamer of the Week.
- The Rangers acquired Merrill Kelly at the deadline to help make a push for the postseason. Nothing Kelly does is particularly impressive, but he’s able to generate outs pretty consistently. He has a 3.36 ERA this season, so he’s on pace for a sub-3.50 mark for the third time in the past four years. Neither of his projected matchups is particularly daunting, so he should continue to deliver value.
- Eury Pérez is so damn good. He’s hit a slight speed bump recently, allowing nine runs over his past two outings, but he still has a 3.05 xERA for the year. That puts him in the 85th percentile, which is more than good enough for a 22-year-old who missed all of last year while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
- David Peterson has been the one constant in the Mets’ rotation of late. He had one blowup inning vs. the Braves in his last start, but for the most part, he’s been reliable all season. He draws two favorable opponents next week in the Braves and Nationals, who both rank in the bottom half of the league in wRC+ vs. southpaws.
- It has been a nightmare season for Zac Gallen. He has previously been considered a top-flight fantasy starter, but his ERA this season has ballooned to 5.13. His strikeouts are way down, and his advanced metrics suggest he hasn’t been particularly unlucky; he just hasn’t been very good. However, Gallen has been slightly better in three August starts, and it’s hard to beat his projected schedule. It doesn’t get much better than home starts vs. the Guardians and Reds, so start him if you’ve got him.
- Conversely, Nick Pivetta’s upcoming schedule looks pretty rough. A matchup vs. the Giants is doable — they’re 13th in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season — but the Dodgers rank second in that department. They’re also second in runs per game, so they’re one of the toughest matchups in the league. Still, Pivetta has impressed all year, piling up 12 wins with a 2.87 ERA and better than a strikeout per inning. He’s gone at least six innings in seven of his past eight outings, so he should give you solid strikeout production at a bare minimum.
Questionable
- Dustin May simply does not seem like the same pitcher at this point. That’s not a huge shocker. He’s undergone two major arm procedures, so he may never rediscover the form that once made him one of the better young pitchers in baseball. Using him against the Yankees carries plenty of risk, but he can potentially be streamed vs. the Orioles. May is coming off one of his better outings of the season, pitching five scoreless innings with eight strikeouts vs. a tough Astros’ lineup.
- Jack Flaherty is another pitcher who has regressed this season, pitching to a 4.76 ERA and 4.14 xERA. However, he is elite when it comes to piling up strikeouts. He ranks in the 87th percentile for strikeout rate, and he has at least six punchouts in eight of his past nine outings. The Astros and Royals are brutal matchups from a strikeout standpoint, but they’re not particularly intimidating, either. Kansas City ranks 27th in wRC+ vs. right-handers, while Houston is merely 20th.
- The Royals have two starters tentatively scheduled for multiple starts: Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. Lugo is ranked significantly higher in the Pitcher List Rankings, but Wacha has been the better pitcher of late. He owns a 2.29 ERA across three August starts, so both pitchers have some appeal. The matchup vs. the Rangers is solid, while both players have some risk against Detroit.
- Spencer Arrighetti is still working his way back for the Astros. He’s made two starts since coming off the IL, but his most recent outing was a good one: five innings, one hit, two earned runs. He did hand out five free passes in that outing, but it was a clear step in the right direction. He’s another pitcher that should probably be sat vs. the Tigers, but he has some appeal vs. the Orioles.
- Jack Leiter has yet to put it together at the MLB level on a consistent basis, but we’ve seen some encouraging signs recently. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of his past eight outings, including all three in August. The Guardians and Royals are both bottom-five offenses in wRC+ vs. right-handers, so he can hopefully keep things rolling.
- At this point, it’s hard to have much confidence in Spencer Strider. He is simply not the same dominant pitcher that we’ve seen in the past, and the Mets roughed him up for eight earned runs in his last outing. You’re not benching him vs. the White Sox, but sitting him against New York is definitely reasonable.
- Cade Horton and Jameson Taillon are both scheduled to get the ball twice for the Cubs. Unfortunately, one of those starts will come against the Brewers, who are the hottest team in baseball by a mile. They’re currently riding a 13-game win streak, their second streak of at least 11+ wins in the past two months. Horton and Taillon don’t need to be deployed in that matchup, but they have plenty of appeal vs. the Angels. Los Angeles has the second-highest strikeout rate against right-handers this season, so both guys have a bit more upside than usual.
- There is almost never any reason to consider a Rockies starter. They’re the worst team in baseball, and they play their home games in a pitchers’ wasteland. However, starting Austin Gomber on the road vs. the Pirates is at least something to consider. Pittsburgh is 29th in wRC+ vs. southpaws, so if you’re ever going to use Gomber, this would be the spot.
- Nestor Cortes got a solid upgrade moving from Milwaukee to San Diego at the trade deadline. His spot in the rotation is much more secure, and he’s put together two solid outings since returning from the IL. There’s plenty of risk vs. the Dodgers, but he’s a slam-dunk vs. the Giants: they’re dead last in wRC+ vs. southpaws.
Avoid
- There’s very little to get excited about here. Maybe you can find a start for one or two of these guys if you’re desperate, but you’d have to squint really hard to find it. You’re best off just avoiding this tier entirely, with the risk far outweighing the upside.
