The Cincinnati Reds have one of, if not the most exciting core of young talent in the Major Leagues. The infield of the future looks to be made up of Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, and Noelvi Marte. The offensive profile of these four players is something to be excited about. We saw De La Cruz and McLain on a large scale in 2023 but Marte and Encarnacion-Strand were late additions. All four of these players made a great first impression at the MLB level, each showcasing plus tools. An underrated aspect of this infield is the flexibility defensively. De La Cruz, Marte, and McLain can play 2B, SS, or 3B, while Encarnacion-Strand can play either corner. But, back to the offensive tools.
Acquired in the Tyler Mahle trade along with Spencer Steer, this trade turned out well for the Reds. Encarnacion-Strand has plus power as his calling card but has also hit .296 or above in his minor-league career. He hit .270 in his 63-game debut for the Reds and continued his power surge with 13 home runs. Slotting in at the 4-6 spot in the Reds lineup, Encarnacion-Strand is in a prime position to drive in 100+ runs a year.
With an aggressive approach, Encarnacion-Strand has only had a walk percentage over 10% once in his career (2023 – AAA/10.4%). With just a .328 OBP (14 walks) to start his Reds career, he continued his swing-often approach. A 36.5% chase rate, with a 29.4% whiff rate is something to keep an eye on, but Encarnacion-Strand has always managed a high strikeout rate with a low walk rate. If he can adjust to taking a more patient approach, his high average and power output should be sustainable. On the flip side, it’s tough to change the approach of a career .332 hitter in the minor leagues. Given that Encarnacion-Strand hit .270 in roughly 33% of a season, there may not be a need to be more patient to be successful. If Encarnacion-Strand wants to reach the elite 1B level status, he’ll need his OBP to be north of .350.
Typically, the high strikeout/low walk players are profiles I tend to stay away from, but Encarnacion-Strand has the plus power to fall back on if all else fails. He profiles somewhere in the range of what Christian Walker, Jake Burger, and Spencer Torkelson did in 2023. Granted Encarnacion-Strand hit .270 with a .270 XBA, but that might be tough to maintain with his chase/whiff rates. This doesn’t scare me from investing in him as I’ll trust his track record to this point until he proves different.
While the advanced data isn’t needed to know that Encarnacion-Strand is a power threat, there are some exciting numbers from his 2023 MLB debut. He had an 18.6-degree launch angle with a max exit velocity of 111.8 MPH in his 153 batted ball events in 2023. Only 13 players had a higher LA/Max EV combo with a minimum of 150 BBE in 2023. His hard-hit percentage was 41st in the MLB at 48.4% leaving no doubt that Encarnacion-Strand can drive the ball. He also added a 38.6% sweet spot percentage which ranked 33rd in the MLB in 2023 minimum 150 BBEs. Encarnacion-Strand can square the ball up and hit it hard and with his track record, there is much to be excited about in 2024.
Encarnacion-Strand is a buy for me headed into 2024 for multiple reasons. Given his home ballpark, Encarnacion-Strand has the chance to put up monster home run and RBI totals over a full season. Encarnacion-Strand feels undervalued headed into 2024 as a potential 30 HR-100 RBI player which should ease the transition from Joey Votto in Cincinnati.
Verdict: Buy
McLain was the first to debut from the young group of Reds rookies and was scorching before an oblique injury. Despite only being 5’8″, McLain showcases above-average power. McLain can do it all, hit for average, power, steal bases, and play stellar defense.
Drafted 17th overall in 2021 out of UCLA, McLain was a polished college shortstop who could move quickly. McLain needed just one full season in 2022 and 71 games between 2021 and 2023 before being MLB-ready. He delivered in 2023 at the MLB level, slashing .290/.357/.507 with 16 home runs and 14 stolen bases.
McLain posted 115 strikeouts to just 31 walks which were both the highest and lowest percentages of his professional career. A 28.5% strikeout rate with a 7.7% walk rate resembles the same aggressive approach CES displays. The 28% whiff rate and 28.5% strikeout rate are again something to keep an eye on. The positive for McLain is he only had a 25.4% chase rate which puts him closer to the top of the league. Despite the lack of walks, McLain makes good contact with a 94th-percentile sweet spot percentage. With McClain’s hit tool, speed, and plate discipline, he profiles a top-of-the-order bat for years to come.
McLain possesses the tools I like to target in players: above-average speed and power. McLain has the tools to be a 25 HR-25 SB player year after year, with a .260+ average. Some metrics point to regression for McLain, like his .256 XBA but that average still makes him valuable. Defensively, McClain is best at shortstop, but if Marte needs to play third base and De La Cruz plays short, McLain is the best option for second base. Given the long season, McLain will most likely have SS/2B eligibility. A dual-eligibility 25 HR-25 SB player only makes his value that much greater.
Some metrics point to McLain maintaining his 2023 success as he sported a 10.8% barrel rate and a max exit velocity of 109.9 MPH. The exit velocity assures us that he can continue to hit for power, living around 20 home runs a year. McLain has a profile in the range of Bryson Stott, Andrés Giménez, and Anthony Volpe. McLain had a significantly better 2023 than Volpe and possesses more power than Gimenez and Stott. However, if regression comes, McLain is looking like a profile slightly above Gimenez and Stott.
McLain may be a bit overvalued after his incredible 2023 season but for the right price, McLain is absolutely a buy for 2024. With second base eligibility, I’d be more inclined to reach for McLain at the thin position.
Verdict: Buy
One of the most exciting prospects in recent years, Elly De La Cruz brings excitement to the diamond. The potential for De La Cruz is about as high as it gets, but it feels as though the fantasy community is judging him harshly off 98 games.
There is a lot to dissect and pick apart in the young infielder’s first 427 plate appearances. While the power and speed tools are off the charts, the strikeout, whiff, chase, sweet spot, and barrel percentage leave much to be desired. The .235/.300/.410 slash line with an xBA of .240 and xSLG of .391 are certainly concerning from a full player profile. If the contact or strikeout to walk rate doesn’t improve, De La Cruz is looking like a power and speed threat only.
Now the positive. De La Cruz has game-changing tools. We’ve seen his high exit velocities and hard-hit percentage, but he only accrued 13 home runs in 2023. De La Cruz profiles as a power/speed player with the ability to have a 25-50 season. He hit .259 off fastballs in 2023, with a .267 XBA. Given the aggressive and free-swinging approach, De La Cruz attacking fastballs should give him more success in 2024. The excitement of De La Cruz is enough to draft him and expect big things in 2024 but he profiles like Jazz Chisholm Jr./strong>.
The game-changing tools come from his 6’5, 200-pound frame. In 2023, De La Cruz maxed out with a 119.2 MPH exit velocity, the third hardest-hit ball in 2023. De La Cruz also was tied with Ronald Acuña Jr. in 2023 with an average home run distance of 420 feet. The number of raw tools in the game of De La Cruz is off the charts. Any improvement in approach and we’re looking at a top 10 player in the league.
De La Cruz is also the fastest player in baseball as he tied Bobby Witt Jr. in 2023 with a 30.5 MPH registered sprint speed. Elly De La Cruz has the chance to steal 50-plus bases a year without a high walk rate. For De La Cruz to reach that elite level of player, he’ll need to not only improve his plate discipline, but he’ll need to get better at hitting off-speed pitches. De La Cruz hit .259 off fastballs in 2023 but managed just .204 against breaking pitches and .238 against off-speed. However, he turns 22 years old on January 11th, so time is on his side.
Any player who has the talent to hit 25-plus home runs and steal 50-plus bases in a season is hard to pass on. De La Cruz holds more value from a fantasy perspective at third base but is a solid starter anywhere. There is no doubt most are going to target him because of his explosive ability, so not reaching is key here.
Verdict: Buy with caution
One of the best prospects in all of baseball, and my number one overall prospect, Marte has some of the best tools in the game. Marte should enter 2024 as an everyday player in the Reds infield at either third or second base. A full season could look a lot like a .280 hitter with 20 home runs and 20 steals. Marte is a big kid at 6’0, 215 pounds but has above-average speed and runs aggressively. Marte stole 24 bases in 2023 and was on pace for 28 at the major league level after stealing 6 in 35 games. The speed from Marte was more than steals, as he legged line drives in the gap into hustle doubles. Much like De La Cruz, Marte has impressive wheels and is just behind him in sprint speed at 29.1.
Marte spent time between Double-A and Triple-A, hitting .279 with 11 home runs and 18 steals in 92 games. The power numbers weren’t as high as expected in 2023 but Marte has yet to hit 20 home runs in a year. The home run numbers may not be as high as his raw power suggests, due to his swing and launch angle. Noelvi should still be able to hit 20-25 home runs a year and factoring in the speed, he’s a top third base option for the future.
Marte was able to keep a low chase and whiff percentage in his brief debut, as they were both sub 29%. Marte had a slightly higher ground ball and line drive percentage with the Reds compared to his minor league numbers. A lower pull rate could be the reason Marte only hit three home runs in his first 35 games. A career .282 minor league hitter, Marte hit .316 with an xBA of .295 in his debut. The ground ball percentage is a bit high, but he hits the ball hard which allows him to succeed anyway. Marte seemingly hits everything and makes great contact with balls slightly off the plate.
If Marte can alter his launch angle to get the ball in the air and pull it, he could hit 30 home runs a year in Cincinnati. Even if his approach stays the same, he’ll hit for a high average and the homerun/steal totals will be enough to make him a top option at third base. The tools are here for Marte as hell to be a perennial all-star, but I believe he’ll be a top player in all of baseball.
Verdict: Buy and buy heavily
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@bearydoesgfx on X)