During the last week of July, the Philadelphia Phillies got swept in a three-game series in Miami. The games were all close—the Phillies lost by a combined four runs—but there was nevertheless a sense that the team was shorthanded. “I think we need some help,” superstar Bryce Harper said at the time. Harper’s comments received more than a little criticism. Former Phillies pitcher Ricky Bottalico, now a broadcaster for NBC Sports Philadelphia, suggested that Harper had given up on his teammates. More than a few Phillies fans agreed, and some were even harsher. As one Facebook respondent put it, “(Harper’s) general act is tired. The cliché interview responses, the streak hitting, lack of hustle, lack of leadership ability, the self-promotion way about him…He just rubs people the wrong way.”
Still, like him or not, Harper did make it clear that he was ready and willing to accommodate additions to the Phillies’ lineup. Though he had played first base since July 2023—a byproduct of Tommy John surgery on his throwing arm in November 2022—Harper was carrying an outfielder’s glove with him during that ill-starred Miami trip. As Todd Zolecki then put it, “Harper is prepared for anything. So, if the Phillies somehow find a slugging first baseman in the next few days, he said he is ready to move to right field again. He has been willing to move there in the past.”
Less than a week later, on Aug. 3, Harper was given a chance to back up his words. When the Phillies traded for San Francisco Giants second baseman Luis Arraez, along with right-handed pitcher Caleb Kilian, the team had to make significant defensive changes. With Arraez now at the keystone, Bryson Stott slid over to third base, which pushed Alec Bohm to first base and, last but not least, Harper back to right field. To be sure, this was a move that could’ve backfired in any number of ways. Stott might have struggled to adapt to the hot corner. Harper’s return to right field has already brought renewed knee soreness. Moreover, while the 6-foot-4 Bohm offered the prospect of improved defense at first base, his defensive struggles over the years meant there were no guarantees. The gamble, however, was that Arraez’s contact-first approach at the plate and excellent record with runners in scoring position were precisely what the feast-or-famine Phillies lineup needed, defensive risks be damned.
More than a month later, the Arraez trade and the ensuing changes look like an inspired gamble. As of this writing, following their 3-0 win over the Mets on Thursday, the Phillies are 25-15 (.625) since inserting Arraez into the lineup on Aug. 4, good for the fifth-best record in MLB over that span. That pace should not be shrugged off. Despite a September slowdown, the Phillies have played very good baseball over the past six weeks, pairing a productive offense with strong run prevention. From Aug. 4 through Thursday, the team ranked eighth in MLB with 4.7 runs per game, 10th with a .724 OPS, and fifth with a .333 OBP. Philadelphia allowed 3.83 runs per game, sixth-fewest in baseball, while its 3.27 ERA ranked second and its 1.20 WHIP placed it among the top five. The acquisition of Arraez, then, has not turned the Phillies into an offensive juggernaut, but it has helped create a deeper lineup that supplies enough offense for one of baseball’s best pitching staffs.
Of course, a hot streak—or even a hot month—means nothing come October. Philadelphians know this all too well. In 2022, after ending an 11-year postseason drought and surging to the National League pennant, the Phillies coughed up a 2-1 World Series lead over the Houston Astros and lost. The 2023 postseason was equally painful. After securing series leads of 2-0 and 3-2 against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL Championship Series, they squandered Games 6 and 7 at home. The past two seasons have been disappointing in a different way. After winning back-to-back NL East crowns and earning first-round byes, the Phillies failed to get out of the NL Division Series in consecutive seasons, losing to the Mets in 2024 and then to the eventual champion Los Angeles Dodgers in 2025. The current iteration of the Phillies has earned four consecutive playoff appearances and won a pennant, but its story—both nationally and in the City of Brotherly Love — has been one of a championship-caliber roster continually falling short in October.
To be sure, a skeptic lurks in the heart of every Philadelphia sports fan. Yes, when healthy, the Phillies boast arguably one of MLB’s best rotations in Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler, Jesús Luzardo, and two rejuvenated right-handers, veteran Aaron Nola and rookie Andrew Painter — but the bullpen remains a concern beyond closer Jhoan Duran. And the lineup, while improved, is still more like “Kyle and Bryce and roll the dice” than a bona fide powerhouse. Even with the addition of Arraez, can a team with a bottom-third OPS (.710) for the season outlast elite offenses like those of the Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, and Milwaukee Brewers? It’s all too rational to fear that, as in the last two postseasons, the Phillies will come up short again in 2026, losing 2-1 heartbreakers when a journeyman reliever such as Brooks Raley gives up a two-run double in the seventh inning.
Still, there are reasons for optimism. The collective brilliance of the starting staff, provided Luzardo returns healthy, is the most obvious — but there are other points worth exploring as well.
First, the team’s post-Arraez surge is not an anomaly but, rather, an extension of an already sustained run of success. When Don Mattingly replaced Rob Thomson on April 28, the Phillies were 9-19 (.321). Under Mattingly’s leadership, the team has gone 76-49 (.608), a 98-win pace and the third-best record in MLB over that span, behind the Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays. The hot streak in August may have represented the team’s peak, but it would be a mistake to think of the Phillies’ recent success as a flash in the pan.
Second, and perhaps most significantly, the postseason format makes it possible for the Phillies to limit their weakest pitchers’ exposure. Middle-relief depth is a clear vulnerability, but a shorter postseason rotation could free up Nola or Painter for bullpen work. A healthy Luzardo would give Mattingly still more flexibility. Moreover, the team can use Duran more aggressively, potentially for more than three outs, alongside Orion Kerkering (.208 xBA). Jonathan Bowlan (.195 xBA) should provide another useful option, although his departure with right groin tightness Thursday adds another health concern. This scenario would also permit the talented if erratic flamethrowers José Alvarado, whose sinker averages 98 mph, and rookie Alex McFarlane, whose four-seamer averages 100.1 mph, to be used more judiciously.
Third, Harper is playing like a man capable of carrying the team. Since Arraez debuted, Harper is batting .326 with a .463 on-base percentage and .945 OPS, including 36 walks in 177 plate appearances. More importantly, October has generally elevated rather than exposed him. As a Phillie, Harper has a 1.090 OPS in the playoffs. There is also a strong case for placing his 2026 season among his five or six best overall: entering Thursday, his cumulative batting production already ranked fifth among his career seasons in weighted runs created and sixth in weighted runs above average, according to FanGraphs. Through Thursday, he had also played all 153 Phillies games and drawn 104 walks, already his fourth-highest season total. Is 2026 — his 15th MLB season in a career destined for Cooperstown — the year he propels his team to a World Series title?
Fourth, in contrast to previous seasons, the post-trade offense offers several different paths to scoring. Harper supplies patience and all-around excellence, Kyle Schwarber game-changing power, and Arraez elite contact skills. If Bohm continues to thrive at first base, and if Trea Turner can regain the form that earned him batting titles in 2021 and 2025, the Phillies will enter October with a potent and diverse mixture of power, on-base ability, and elite bat-to-ball skill.
Fifth, and most idiosyncratically, the Phillies’ likely wild-card route may actually suit their collective personality. After all, in recent years, the franchise’s deepest runs came as a wild-card team in 2022 and 2023, while its 2024 and 2025 division-winning teams received byes and immediately lost in the NLDS. A first-round series introduces considerable danger, particularly if Luzardo remains unavailable, but it may also allow the Phillies to enter October with lower expectations and more brashness.
The baseball season is long, but things can change quickly. After a brilliant August (21-7), the Phillies have been less impressive in September, going 7-8 through Thursday. Most notably, they dropped two of three games in a road series against Atlanta on Sept. 11-13, then lost the opener in Washington on Tuesday. Luzardo’s IL stint and Bowlan’s latest setback offer additional encouragement to PhillyDoomers. But consecutive 3-0 wins over the Nationals and Mets have offered a reminder of what this team can do. In the latter, Nola supplied seven scoreless innings and Harper collected three hits: dominant starting pitching, just enough offense, and another win. When only one team can win the World Series, it’s easier to forecast doom than success. Don’t be shocked, however, if 2026 proves to be the year of the Fightins.
