As the offseason begins in earnest, reflection sets in.
Some teams will look backward at 2024 and hope it’s a stepping stone toward something greater. The Detroit Tigers rode a fairytale August and September back to the playoffs for the first time since 2014. They even dethroned the Houston Astros in the American League Wild Card Series. One of Detroit’s AL Central brethren, the Kansas City Royals, snapped their own streak and seem poised to start a new one altogether. Likewise, the New York Mets reestablished themselves as serious contenders in the Steve Cohen era, winning more games against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship Series than their crosstown rivals, the New York Yankees, did in the World Series.
These are some of the overachievers—the teams who overcame the insurmountable doubt to dub 2024 a success. Then, there’s the underachievers: The Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins, St. Louis Cardinals, and Arizona Diamondbacks. Playoff hopefuls—and, in the Twins’ case, playoff favorites—who sat on the couch during October rather than get in on the fun. They represent the reality of Major League Baseball—that only 12 teams make the dance, and only one walks away with a smile.
But baseball, like life, isn’t so black and white. Sometimes there’s a reason to find development in defeat—lessons learned, stars unearthed, careers resurrected, etc. Sometimes, it’s okay to lose if something is given in return. Such is the case for two teams in the AL that, despite a poor season on the surface, have cause to find the silver linings through the troubles.
The Tampa Bay Rays shouldn’t be here at first glance. The team’s 80-82 record in 2024 is its worst since 2017. It landed the club in fourth place in the AL East for the first time since 2015 and snapped a franchise-best five-year playoff run. That’s not all. Over the last 365 days, the team has shipped off two studs in Tyler Glasnow and Randy Arozarena, All-Star Isaac Paredes, former free-agency addition Zach Eflin, and a bulk of other arms like Phil Maton, Jason Adam, and Aaron Civale.
So why exactly should Rays fans feel good about 2024 when it only rained misery and tearful goodbyes to stars and streaks?
The sad truth about the Rays is that 2024 was inevitable. Teams cannot operate on the payroll Tampa Bay does and continuously achieve success. The Rays’ model boils down to highly educated dart throws and routine heartbreak for the fanbase. They cannot afford the best players around the league, nor can they eventually meet the financial demands of the best names on their roster. Once a player’s arbitration cost grows, the sand in the hourglass starts to trickle, and their time in navy and powder blue is limited.
It’s what leads to the trading of franchise cornerstones in return for prospects who maybe—just maybe if things break right—become those next load-bearers before being shipped off once they hit their prime. This plan worked for the Rays. It’s what led them to the playoffs from 2019 to 2022. But it’s a dangerous, unpredictable path whose steps are as rickety as 100-year-old floorboards. Should unexpected regression, a slew of injuries, or just the laws of unpredictability hit, you get an 80-82 record.
The Rays are an ouroboros. There’s no changing that. Nor should there be. Though the Rays’ methodology fell flat in 2024, that same planning has them poised to start anew. That’s what makes them an unconventional, yet nonetheless silver liner.
Let’s start with this new upcoming core. Given the mass exodus of Tampa Bay’s established talent and influx of prospects, the team finished 2024 with the top farm system in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs. ESPN ranked the Rays second, as did Bleacher Report and Baseball America. This isn’t exactly a new trend, nor is it why Tampa Bay finished so high. The team closed 2023 ranked fourth in FanGraphs rankings and again in 2022. But what’s significant about 2024’s crop is its youth and positional variety.
According to MLB Pipeline, only three of Tampa Bay’s top 10 prospects are older than 22. However, more significantly for the Rays, none of these players have a single day of major league experience. These are 10 high-ceiling players who the Rays will pay next to nothing for the first three years of their professional careers. It’s also a varied bunch. Of those 10 players, four are infielders (Carsen Williams, Xavier Issac, Brayden Taylor, Tre’ Morgan), four are outfielders (Chandler Simpson, Theo Gilden, Brailer Guerrero, Aidan Smith), and two are pitchers (Gary Gill Hill, Santiago Suarez). If just half of these players work out for the Rays, it’s a success. Yet to have 10—more or less—lottery tickets is a godsend for the organization and its checkbook.
In one season, Tampa Bay reloaded its pipeline. And that’s before potentially receiving hauls for veterans still on its roster. Former All-Star and batting champion Yandy Díaz, closer Pete Fairbanks, infielder-outfielder Brandon Lowe, and resurgent starter Zack Littell could all be on the move, as three of the four have club options in 2026. If any get moved, Tampa Bay’s electric farm system might receive more wattage.
The major-league club isn’t hurting for young talent, either.
Though Taj Bradley’s season stats include a 4.11 ERA, 97 ERA+, 4.09 FIP, and 1.225 WHIP, he shined at times. From June 8 to July 25, Bradley made nine starts. In them, he recorded a 0.82 ERA, 2.49 FIP, 65 strikeouts, and an opposing OPS of .465. Among all starters during that time, Bradley ranked first in ERA and batting average against, third in fWAR, and sixth in K%. Opposing hitters looked like they had digested psilocybin, and Bradley was the only sober one in the stadium.
That didn’t last, however. From July 31 to the end of the season, Bradley touted a 6.51 ERA, the second-worst mark in the sport. Jake Irvin was the only pitcher worse, while Brandon Pfaadt tied Bradley’s 6.51 mark. This wasn’t just bad luck, though. Bradley’s 5.07 FIP was sixth-worst in MLB over these 11 starts, and his xFIP was still 4.11. Though Bradley closed his season with a 1.76 ERA in his final three starts, there’s no sugar-coating how bad he was.
Bradley runs as hot as the sun and as cold as Uranus. Yet what should ensure Tampa Bay’s faith in him is two things: He was the youngest starter on the staff and will only be 24 by Opening Day 2025. There’s still plenty to his game to mold and lessons to absorb. Secondly, those teaching him are some of the best in the business. Tampa Bay’s gotten immaculate play from starters in the past. Glasnow only became a star once he stepped foot in Tropicana Field, Blake Snell won a Cy Young in the powder blue, Shane McClanahan developed into a star when healthy, and Charlie Morton received Cy Young votes while with the club. There’s little reason to believe the pitching coaches can’t work similar magic with Bradley.
The same could be said for Ryan Pepiot, who took significant strides in his first year with Tampa Bay.
Pepiot had mammoth-sized shoes to fill after coming from Los Angeles as the centerpiece of the Glasnow trade. Thankfully for the Rays, Pepiot’s footprint is not too dissimilar to Glasnow’s. In 26 starts, Pepiot posted a 3.60 ERA, 111 ERA+, 3.95 FIP, 1.154 WHIP, 142 strikeouts, and 1.9 fWAR. He was everything the organization needed and then some following the wake of another painful goodbye.
The odd part of Pepiot’s season is the unevenness of his splits. For instance, Pepiot’s 2.95 ERA in the second half is much better than his first-half ERA of 3.92. Yet his 1.076 WHIP through his first 17 games is much lower than his 1.313 WHIP over his final nine starts. The same goes for Pepiot’s 3.85 FIP in the first half versus his 4.15 FIP in the second. It’s confusing to the point of feeling incongruent.
Despite the oddity of Pepiot’s 2024, this much is clear: He’s an incredibly promising pitcher.
Further proof of that comes in his month-by-month splits. Outside of May and June, the worst month of Pepiot’s season was a 3.55 ERA in September. That’s it. Those May starts are cause for concern, but some context is needed. In his first start of the month, he was hit by a 107.5 mph line drive from Starling Marte. The comebacker landed Pepiot on the injured list three days later and kept him there until he returned on May 22. He would finish the month pitching just 11.2 innings. It’s too small of a sample size to ring the alarm bells.
Pepiot’s June, however, might give the guards on the watchtower an itch to ring. Pepiot posted a 5.33 ERA during those five starts and was roughed up by contenders and pretenders alike. Miami scored three runs off him, Baltimore four, and Atlanta five. Even Pittsburgh put up a fight, coaxing four walks and knocking the starter out after 3.1 innings despite his just two runs allowed. Atlanta and Pittsburgh especially made Pepiot gut through his games. They challenged him, refusing to strike out and forcing him to beat them before doing so themselves. It wasn’t until Pepiot’s final start of the month, an eight strikeout one-run allowed performance against the Mariners, that he got back on track.
One of the few aspects of the 27-year-old’s game to be wary of is his control. Among 90 starters with at least 130 innings pitched, Pepiot’s 3.32 BB/9 ranked 20th in baseball, while his 8.9 BB% was 17th. His 48 walks allowed is 50th in baseball, but that number is deflated by Pepiot’s 130 innings pitched. Martín Pérez and Andrew Abbott were the only other starters with similar innings pitched to Pepiot to walk more batters. It’s a real concern.
That’s not to say the cons outweigh Pepoit’s pros. The 27-year-old has great strikeout abilities, including a 9.83 K/9 and 26.3 SO%. It’s simply to say Pepiot isn’t a finished project.
Other pitching positives include Shane Baz having the best season of his career. Littell seems to be another reclamation project gone right. Reliever Kevin Kelly had another strong year, and fellow bullpen arm Edwin Uceta looked better than he had. Pitching has always been one of the Rays’ strongest suits. There’s no reason to believe that won’t continue in 2025 thanks to a returning McClanahan and what 2024 showed.
Former top prospect and shortstop Junior Caminero is another up-and-comer the Rays can hang their hat on. In 49 games this season, the 21-year-old slashed .249/.299/.424 with six home runs, nine doubles, and 18 RBIs with a .724 OPS. While those numbers don’t leap off the page, others point toward development. In 2023, Caminero registered a 42.3 HardHit%, 11.5 LD%, 61.5 GB%, and an average exit velocity of 85.4 mph. In layman’s terms, he wasn’t hitting the ball hard, and if he connected, he often drove it into the ground.
Those numbers all improved dramatically in 2024. Caminero clocked a 46 HardHit%, 17.3 LD%, 48.8 GB%, and 89.7 average exit velocity. He was now putting the ball in play, hitting it hard, and driving it. Further proof comes from a .071 raise in his slugging percentage from one year to the next.
The one caveat to this comparison is the sample size. Caminero played 49 games in 2024 compared to seven in 2023 and had 200 more at-bats in 2024 than in 2023. It’s possible he would’ve made adjustments, and his advanced numbers then would more accurately reflect where they are now. Caminero’s season is a welcome albeit slightly skewed development.
From the skewed to the unexpected. Dylan Carlson was a much-beloved prospect ahead of his 2020 debut with the St. Louis Cardinals. Nearly every ranking of note viewed him as a top-20 prospect in the game. MLB felt similarly and sent him to the 2019 Futures Game to represent the Redbirds. Between Carlson, Harrison Bader, and Tyler O’Neill, the team was thought to have its outfield of the future.
That notion faded fast. By 2024, Bader and O’Neill were off the team, and Carlson was all that remained of that once promising outfield. However, like the others, he failed to make a case to stay. In 59 games with the Cardinals in 2024, Carlson hit .198/.275/.240 with a .515 OPS. He was abominable. The Cardinals finally cut ties with the outfielder and traded him to Tampa on July 22 in exchange for Shawn Armstrong.
Carlson found new life in his bat almost instantly in Tampa Bay. In August alone, Carlson had just as many home runs (three) with the Rays as the Cardinals. In totality, he concluded the month slashing .226/.324/.403 with a .727 OPS, his best OPS in a month since June 2023. The outfielder looked reinvigorated.
September was colder than August for Carlson. By season’s end, his numbers in Tampa Bay were better albeit not incredibly dissimilar to those in St. Louis: A .219 batting average, .299 OBP, and a .316 slug. Oddly, his SO% increased, and his BB% decreased with Tampa Bay. Carlson began swinging for the fences, and his Chase% rocketed. For almost every player, that’d be a sign of the worst. For Carlson, it’s the greatest thing that could happen.
Carlson’s greatest, often-underutilized strength has always been his power. In 2021, he launched 18 homers, and 31 doubles, and touted a .437 slugging percentage. It was and remains the best season of his career. However, in recent years, that pop has disappeared from his game. 2022 saw Carlson hit eight homers, 2023 five, and 2024 zero through his first 59 games with the Cardinals. Carlson was no longer a power hitter and with time, wasn’t much of a hitter period. It’s what led to his exodus from the city of the arch.
The Rays seemed to understand that when they acquired Carlson. Instead of trying to mold him into a balanced hitter, they steered him toward his greatest strength. The results speak for themselves: a 2.4 HR% that inches closer toward his 2021 mark, an 11.6 increase in HardHit%, a 1.2 MPH jump in average exit velocity, and an ISO over double what it had been with St. Louis. Carlson and the Rays have given up on the idea of hitting .250. They should.
Offensive power is one of the more inconsistent parts of the Rays offense these last years. They ranked 29th in team slugging in 2024, 25th in 2022, and 15th in 2019. They finished top 10 in the metric in 2021 and 2023, but the players responsible for those seasons are either no longer on the team or aren’t the same players they were then. Paredes is in Chicago, Arozarena in Seattle, Mike Zunino is retired, and injuries have limited Lowe in recent years. Encouraging Carlson to lean into the slugger inside of him might not just save his career. It might reenergize an element of the Rays offense.
Carlson, Bradley, Pepiot, and Caminero aside, more must change for the Rays to regain their form: They need their prospects to deliver, pitchers to stay healthy, young hitters to develop, and low-cost gambles in free agency to work. That’s all true. But this is as good of a time for a reboot and as good of a job that could be done given the circumstances. The only dark cloud hanging over the situation is the snake tail that’ll soon be back in its mouth.
Athletics
Athletics fans, like Rays fans, are used to this cycle. Build a core, try to compete with it, fail to reach the promised land, and watch as the players who powered you forward are shipped off elsewhere to join the teams you so badly wish you could become. You sit in the cellar for a few years, recoup your losses, and then try again. The names have changed, but little else has. Well, except for the fact that this cycle is moving inland for the A’s, first to Sacramento and later to Las Vegas.
The good news, though, is the Athletics are back in that first stage. After back-to-back 100-loss seasons—including a 112-loss total in 2023 that was the worst of the franchise’s time in Oakland—the team is finally ready to compete again with a core they can believe in.
Anchoring this newest group is outfielder-DH Brent Rooker. In 145 games this season, the 30-year-old slashed .293/.365/.562 with a 164 wRC+, .927 OPS and 5.1 fWAR. Rooker’s OPS was sixth among all qualified AL hitters, while his fWAR was 10th, ahead of superstars like Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Rafael Devers, and Alex Bregman. That fWAR total comes despite Rooker only playing 102.1 innings in the outfield this season. He was that good at the dish.
Rooker is riding more than just one good campaign, though. Over the last two seasons, his 146 wRC+ is 10th in baseball, his .876 OPS is 14th, and his .372 wOBA is also 14th. This is no fluke. Rooker is a rocketship headed toward Mars with a collision course toward superstardom. Especially impressive about Rooker’s numbers is he’s compiled them while playing for the Athletics. And while the organization made strides—19 more wins in 2024 than 2023—which makes them a silver liner, it’s still worth recognizing that Rooker isn’t nearly as supported offensively as his peers are.
Other superstars have Robins. Some even have two Batmans. Here’s looking at the Los Angeles Dodgers. What did Rooker have? In 2023, he had Zack Gelof and Ryan Noda. One year later, Gelof is coming off an abysmal season, and Noda played so poorly that he’s no longer part of the A’s after being put on waivers. It wasn’t exactly an esteemed company. In 2024, Rooker received much more support from Shea Langeliers, Lawrence Butler, and JJ Bleday. But these second fiddles don’t compare to the depth and talent of other teams.
What Rooker has done is nothing short of spectacular. He was an afterthought with the Minnesota Twins and only had a cup of coffee with the San Diego Padres and Kansas City Royals before being sent on his way. Now he’s arguably one of the best bats in the AL.
Rooker isn’t the only player on the team who fought to reclaim their career. Butler entered 2024 on the heels of a disappointing 2023 season. During his 42 games that season, Butler failed to impress, slashing .211/.240/.341 with a well-below-league-average .582 OPS. He struck out 27.1% of the time, walked only 3.1%, and registered 37.1 HardHit%. While Butler would make the team’s Opening Day roster in 2024, his stay was short-lived. After slashing .179/.281/.274 through his first 41 games, the A’s demoted him to Triple-A.
For many players, this might be the end. As a former sixth-round pick, the franchise hadn’t invested much in Butler. Nor was there much optimism in him outside of the organization. MLB Pipeline considered him the club’s 11th-best prospect in 2023, 19th in 2022, and left him unranked in 2021. So far, Butler was a shot-in-the-dark high school bat who hadn’t lustered in the Majors.
Butler’s response to all of the above? A renewed determination. Suddenly hits started to fall in Triple-A that didn’t in the bigs. In 27 games, Butler had a .255/.349/.418 slash line, a .767 OPS, four home runs, six doubles, and 25 runs scored. These weren’t gobsmacking video game numbers. But they were enough to warrant a promotion back to the big leagues on June 18. It was a second chance Butler wouldn’t waste. Over his next 84 games, Butler slashed .291/.330/.565 with 20 home runs, 50 RBIs, 20 doubles, 15 steals, a 153 wRC+, a .896 OPS, and a 3.4 fWAR. These numbers look even better in context with the rest of the sport. His wRC+ was ninth-best in baseball, his OPS 11th, and his fWAR 19th. His bat was as hot as the ashes he rose from.
Butler’s return didn’t just reignite his career. It reenergized the A’s. On June 17, the day before his return to the lineup, the club was 26-48. The only teams worse than them were the Colorado Rockies, Miami Marlins, and Chicago White Sox. From June 18 until the end of the season, the A’s went 43-45. They were one win worse than the New York Yankees, two than the Kansas City Royals, and had a better winning percentage than the Baltimore Orioles during this time.
Of course, it wasn’t just Butler who fueled this second-half surge. Langeliers did his part and provides another reason to believe the A’s are headed in the right direction.
Outside of his rookie season, Langeliers has never been what some would consider a bad player. A no-contact, power-based hitter with questions about his ability to frame and block? Yes. An underwhelming centerpiece in the trade for an MVP-caliber Matt Olson? Sure. An unplayable disaster? Never. For all his warts, Langeliers still hit 22 home runs, collected 63 RBIs, and posted a .681 OPS in 2023, all while throwing out an AL-best 38 attempted base stealers. He can produce—even if not at the level Athletics management dreamed of when it traded for him in return for a yearly MVP contender.
Langeliers didn’t change his game tremendously in 2024. That said, he doubled down on every strength he had. His HR% leaped from 4.5% to 5.4% as he clubbed 29 on the season, his RBI total increased from 63 to 80, and with added power and plate discipline, his OPS rose to .739, a new career-best. That’s in addition to making five fewer errors behind the dish and recording an AL-best 51 assists.
Like Butler, Langeliers’ season numbers are skewed by a slow start. By June 11, the catcher was hitting just .197. He looked far worse than he had a year ago. But once Butler returned and the A’s got on a roll, Langeliers pulled himself out of the wilderness. During this stretch run starting on June 18, Langeliers slashed .240/.309/.457 with 16 home runs, 44 RBIs, a .766 OPS, and a 120 wRC+ in 74 games. Rooker and Butler were the only hitters with a higher OPS than him on the team.
If these three maintain their form in 2025, the club might have a serious one-two-three combination. Butler is the speed-power hitter who can get on and induce stress on the basepaths. Rooker can drive him in or further along, or add another duck on the pond, and Langeliers could clear the bases with his power bat.
Thankfully, 2024 showed the A’s are not just a three-headed monster offensively. Former top-five pick Bleday showed immense promise in his second season in the green and gold. A year ago, Bleday was—as he’s been throughout his career—a bust. He slashed .195/.310/.355. And that’s not for a lack of chances. The A’s let Bleday play 82 games in 2023, yet even then, he couldn’t quite figure out major-league pitching.
That can no longer be said. Bleday was much-improved, posting career bests in every offensive category that comes to mind: Average, OBP, slug, OPS, doubles, home runs, RBI—everything. After ranking 308th in total bases a year ago, Bleday ranked 42nd in all of baseball in 2024. He went from a black hole to someone opposing pitchers had to respect and fear.
Part of what drove Bleday’s breakthrough was putting the ball into the air rather than onto the ground. The outfielder saw a 7.6 uptick in his LD% and an 8.4 fall in his GB%. The former would be the fourth-highest year-to-year increase had Bleday enough at-bats to qualify. The latter would be the eighth-biggest decrease, just ahead of Elly De La Cruz. Accompanying these jumps were others: 2.8% in Solid% from 2023 to 2024, 1.9% in Barrel%, and 1.8 in Barrel/PA. Put it all together and you get the new and improved Bleday.
The biggest triumph for the 2024 A’s wasn’t a bat but an arm. Mason Miller was nothing short of remarkable in his second campaign. Among all relievers, Miller finished first in K/9, second in strikeouts, third in fWAR, and fifth in FIP en route to an All-Star appearance and a selection to the All-MLB Second-Team. The 26-year-old was a baby-faced assassin out of the bullpen. His 100 mph fastball was his bullet, and his wipeout slider was his silencer.
Throughout the season, other teams circled Miller onto their wishlist. Nothing materialized, partly due to the steep cost associated with the closer. It’s a win-win situation for the A’s. Should they keep Miller healthy and viable, they have one of the best relievers in the game until 2029. It’s the bargain of all bargains. Yet if their needs surpass Miller’s value out of the bullpen, they could receive a return that could substantially help remake the roster.
The Athletics weren’t all success stories, however. After a strong rookie season a year ago, Gelof struggled. The 25-year-old was money in his inaugural campaign, slashing .267/.337/.504 with 20 doubles 14 homers, 32 RBIs, and an .840 OPS. The sky seemed the limit on Gelof until 2024 sent him back to Earth. Gelof saw his HR% and BB% dip compared to where they were a year ago while seeing a 6.9 uptick in his SO%. Percentages aside, Gelof slashed .211/.270/.362 with a .632 OPS and an AL-worst 188 strikeouts. The next closest player was Adolis García at 177.
Gelof’s first and second-half splits don’t improve his case either. Yes, his average and OBP in the second half were superior to where they were, but they came at the cost of his slugging percentage and overall power. Gelof hit just five balls out of the park in the second half despite playing 62 games. That 43.60 AB/HR was 12th in the AL during that time. Forty of Gelof’s 59 hits post-All-Star break were singles. That’s 67%.
The A’s will give Gelof the time and chances he needs to grow. He’s still a former second-round pick one season removed from a strong rookie season. The problem is there’s now just as much reason to lower this ceiling as there was to raise it.
One area the A’s will need to address sooner rather than later is their pitching. The team ranked 25th in team ERA and 26th in starting ERA. No one on the staff stood up this year. The lowest ERA among their starters with at least 24 starts this season was JP Sears. Sears’ ERA was 4.38, 49th in baseball. Worse, no one in the A’s farm system seems poised to break out anytime soon. Luis Morales, a 22-year-old, who MLB Pipeline considers the organization’s third-best prospect, is one name to watch. Yet Morales has yet to pitch above A-ball. There shouldn’t be an assumed guarantee he’ll appear in the majors in 2025.
Starter Mason Barnett, another regarded prospect who came via trade, has his own warts, posting a 4.20 ERA between the Royals and Athletics Double-A affiliates. Past Barnett and Morales, there’s Gage Jump, a 21-year-old drafted in 2024, and Gunnar Hoglund, who is yet to elevate past Triple-A despite his three seasons in the minors.
How the A’s will address their rotation is a question. The team won’t, nor will they be allowed, to chase high-end or mid-tier options in free agency. The best they could do a year ago was sign Alex Wood, who was a year removed from a 4.33 ERA, and trade for Ross Stripling following a 5.36 ERA in 2023.
Using prospect capital to acquire major-league pitching isn’t even a viable answer. FanGraphs ranks their farm system 25th, ESPN 24th, and MLB Pipeline 22nd. The A’s lack so much talent it’s unlikely they could land even a frontline starter via trade. The best they could hope for is a reclamation project, though that carries its risks. The bottom line is the A’s had a lackluster rotation in 2024, and there’s little evidence that won’t be true again in 2025.
So, where does all this leave the A’s? They have a potent and potentially great offense thanks to Rooker, Butler, Langaliers, Bleday, and possibly Gelof. If they can figure out a rotation while they rebuild their farm system, the team could return to their former glory. But only for a time and for a Las Vegas-Sacramento fanbase yet to be their own.