Man, it stinks when your team is decimated by injury. Not only did we lose the consensus No. 1 overall pick this week as Ronald Acuña Jr. went down with a torn ACL, but we also lost the most-stashed prospect across the minor leagues in Junior Caminero. What a bummer. Injuries have ravaged most of our fantasy teams so far this season, but we have to continue to make adjustments. Capitalizing on the waiver wire is likely the best – and for some, the only – way to change the outlook of our fantasy squads. Let’s take a look at how we can do that this week.
As a reminder, we’re focusing on players who are between 20-25% rostered in most 12-team leagues and/or 25-50% rostered in 15-teamers. Every league is different, so we won’t be labeling player bids with any sort of recommended dollar amount but instead will use a four-tier investment rating system, ranging from a minimal spend to a potential difference-maker (or LEAGUE-WINNER, if you will).
Investment Rating System
A total of eight teams are scheduled for seven games to open the week with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Baltimore Orioles, Cincinnati Reds, Colorado Rockies, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays, and Washington Nationals each slated to play every day. The Tampa Bay Rays, Miami Marlins, New York Mets, and Philadelphia Phillies each only play five games, with the Mets and Phils traveling to London next weekend.
SEVEN GAMES: ARZ, BAL, CIN, COL, SD, STL, TOR, WAS
FIVE GAMES: MIA, NYM, PHI, TB
Batters
Outfielders
Adam Duvall ($$$): Duvall has played every day since Acuna went down, and should receive regular playing time from now until the Braves make a move to acquire an additional outfielder. We saw what Duvall can do with everyday playing time in April of last season when he tore the cover off the ball with the Red Sox. We’ll see if he can replicate that in the middle of the Atlanta order.
Nick Senzel ($$): The everyday third baseman in Washington, Senzel has been good enough to be considered in deep leagues. In his last six starts, Senzel has recorded seven hits despite recording just a 19.5% hard contact rate. The metrics are not so good, but the opportunity is. And he’s third-base eligible as well.
Corey Julks ($$): Julks has been an everyday outfielder for the White Sox, batting in the top third of the order for most of his appearances. He becomes viable, despite playing in a really, really bad offense.
Nick Martini ($): The Cincinnati Reds have one of the best schedules for hitters in the league this week. With three games in Colorado and four games at home, the Reds should have ample opportunity to score runs. Martini has played relatively consistently, serving as designated hitter in six out of seven games. This could be a great spot to pick up a sneaky power asset in Martini.
Seth Brown ($): On the strong side of a platoon in Oakland, Seth Brown is another bat with sneaky power potential. The Athletics will likely face six right-handed starters this week, making the left-handed Brown a solid target.
JJ Bleday ($): Same as above (see Brown, Seth), except he’s batting second in the Oakland order.
Infielders
Nick Gonzales ($$$): He’s not widely available, but in the few leagues that he’s on the wire he deserves to be picked up. His .305 xAVG and .396 xWOBA indicate that his .319 BA and .390 WOBA should be mostly sustainable. He’s the epitome of a post-hype sleeper and he’s getting everyday playing time in Pittsburgh.
Brett Wisely ($$): With both Marco Luciano and Thairo Estrada suffering injuries this week, Wisely is the most likely candidate to receive additional at-bats in San Francisco. With a decent hit tool and some speed in his bag, Wisely could be a deep-league MI type. Though his .409 BABIP is going to see some regression, he’s still worthy of a pickup.
David Hamilton ($$): More cheap speed, Hamilton is playing consistently enough for the Red Sox that he warrants a bid. Nine stolen bases in less than 100 plate appearances is a lot. For SB-needy teams, he’s a priority this week.
Ji Hwan Bae ($): Cheap speed. Bae is on the strong side of a center-field platoon in Pittsburgh and should be in the lineup every time the Buccos face a right-handed starter. If he’s on base, he’s running. Now we just need him to actually get on base.
Gavin Sheets ($$): He’s still not getting the respect he deserves in fantasy circles despite making major improvements to his K-rate and his walk rate this season. In any other offense in the majors, he becomes a real fantasy asset. However, the White Sox rank dead last in the MLB in runs scored and have scored nearly 50 runs fewer than the 29th-ranked team. Sheets is a criminally underrated hitter in a historically bad offense.
Catchers/UT
Yasmani Grandal ($): I dislike this recommendation as much as you do, reader. But with 11 RBI in 18 games, Grandal is viable as a second catcher. Yes, Henry Davis is mashing in AAA… but that doesn’t do anybody any good until he’s called back up to the bigs. And even if he is, he might not get put behind the plate. Grandal is the guy in Pittsburgh for now.
Korey Lee ($): A two-catcher league option only, Lee is getting more playing time and has a better bat than Martín Maldonado. It’s not pretty, but it’s better than taking zeroes across the board in the second-catcher spot.
Jonathan Aranda ($): A utility-only bat in NFBC leagues, Aranda is a name to watch in Tampa Bay. He’s not getting the regular playing time that fantasy managers are looking for quite yet, but he could be a nice speculative add. His xAVG sits 25 points higher than his batting average meaning there might be some positive regression coming as well.
Pitchers
Starting Pitchers
Ben Brown ($$$$): If you missed out on Brown last week (I suggested him, don’t blame me), it might be a week too late. He hasn’t allowed a run in 13.0 consecutive innings pitched, including seven no-hit innings in his last outing. The curveball is filthy. Like 27.0% swinging strike rate filthy. And 38.6% CSW filthy. The fastball plays too and it does enough to make him viable even as just a two-pitch guy. If he ever develops the changeup, he’ll be a bonafide star.
Tylor Megill ($$$): Three starts, great metrics, two losses. This is the plight of a New York Mets pitcher. Megill has been outstanding, including seven shutout innings against the Dodgers on Tuesday night. With a 31.3% strikeout rate over 16.o innings, the sample is small but this feels like it could be the breakout that we’ve all been clamoring for.
Spencer Schwellenbach ($$): Another Braves prospect who came up and looked good in his debut, Schwellenbach did just enough to warrant a solid bid in FAAB this weekend. Schwellenbach’s next start comes in Boston, so he’ll have to navigate the hitter’s park and a competent lineup. With three plus pitches, Schwellenbach sets up to do well as a Major League pitcher, but he’ll need to prove it early on to justify what managers are likely to bid for him.
Lance Lynn ($$): The WHIP is scary bad, but the Cardinals have been playing better recently. He’s also posted a pair of back-to-back quality starts, allowing just one earned run over 12.0 innings pitched. Lynn gets the Rockies in St. Louis in his Friday start, and his price will likely be depressed after a Sunday afternoon rendezvous with the Phillies. It feels gross, but it’s a risk worth taking if he performs well.
Cade Povich ($): Povich has been the buzz of the Baltimore Orioles‘ organization recently, especially with John Means and Tyler Wells being announced as missing the rest of the season with injuries. He’s not been called up yet, but it sounds like he’s on the precipice. There are not a lot of league formats where he’ll be available, but if he’s out there… get him now.
Bailey Falter ($): What Falter has been able to do so far this season has been nothing less than astonishing. A career-low strikeout rate, career-high walk rate, and career-bests in ERA and WHIP. The metrics don’t match the results, but results are results. Four straight quality starts are enough to garner a bid. He’s probably not a good start this week taking on the Dodgers, but with his next start coming at St. Louis and then a two-start week after that, it makes sense to grab him and sit him now.
Relief Pitchers
Jeremiah Estrada ($$): Estrada has looked amazing out of the Padres bullpen, flashing a ridiculous 17.4% swinging strike rate and a 0.53 ERA over 17.0 innings of relief. He earned his first save last week and though it doesn’t look like he’s taking over for Robert Suarez at closer anytime soon, he will likely be used in high-leverage situations going forward and could be next on the list if Suarez goes down or stumbles.
Mitch Spence ($): One of the pleasant surprises out in Oakland this season, Spence is looking like he might hold some value. Spence leads with a slider that generates a 17.6% swinging strike rate, throwing it 41% of the time. He’s got a cutter to back it up, and a curveball with a solid swinging strike rate as well. The three-pitch mix was worked to the tune of a 2.08 ERA, helping him earn his first win of the season this past week. Whether it’s out of the pen or in a starting role, Spence may be viable in deep leagues.
Bryan Abreu ($): Abreu likely won’t contribute in saves, but he could vulture wins late in Astros games and will definitely post solid strikeout numbers. As long as he doesn’t get blown up, he won’t hurt ratios either.